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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Note: Schools/Businesses are still in session. Christmas isn't a public holiday, so the box-office won't benefit much until NEXT week when the New Year holiday period begins.

Weekday Estimates (12/21-25)

Monday Estimates (12/21)
¥270,000,000 ($2.23 million) / ¥1,889,340,000 ($15.59 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 4
¥85,000,000 ($702,000) / ¥1,142,808,800 ($9.43 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 3
¥44,000,000 ($364,000) / ¥862,839,700 ($7.07 million), Orange (Toho) Day 10
¥30,000,000 ($248,000) / ¥726,911,600 ($6.00 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 10
¥24,000,000 ($198,000) / ¥1,940,336,500 ($15.89 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 18

Tuesday Estimates (12/22)
¥245,000,000 ($2.03 million) / ¥2,134,340,000 ($17.62 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 5
¥83,000,000 ($686,000) / ¥1,225,808,800 ($10.11 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 4
¥41,000,000 ($339,000) / ¥903,839,700 ($7.41 million), Orange (Toho) Day 11
¥25,000,000 ($207,000) / ¥1,965,336,500 ($16.09 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 19
¥23,000,000 ($191,000) / ¥749,911,600 ($6.19 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 11

Wednesday Preview: Emperor's Birthday (12/23)

Wednesday is going to be a big day for the box office thanks to the holiday falling on ladies' day. It shouldn't trail Sunday's box-office by too much based on morning/afternoon ticket sales.

Yo-Kai Watch 2, in particular, is benefiting from the holiday by outgrossing its Monday and Tuesday totals combined for the day and it's only 12PM. It'll probably go on to gross more than 3x its Monday and Tuesday combined take today, aiming for ¥450 million ($3.5-4 million) or so.

And Star Wars VII is performing strongly, too, and while it'll likely lose to Yo-Kai Watch 2 today in ticket sales again like it did over the weekend; it's performing well enough that its gross should also be around ¥450 million ($3.5-4 million) today.

Wednesday should be the only day that Star Wars VII potentially loses until mid/late January, if not into February.

Also, 2015's final two wide openers - Chibi Maruko-chan the Movie and Creed open today, but they're not doing so well. The former might crack the Top 5, and the latter may reach th Top 10.
 
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3 hours ago, tokila said:

so is Japan more of a slow burn market?

 

This is a chart of the films with the biggest multipliers:

 

by Corpse
 
Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners / Wide Releases) [1998 - July 2015]

01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012)
07. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
08. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
09. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
10. 15.26 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
11. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
12. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
13. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
14. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
15. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
16. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
17. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
18. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
19. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
20. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
21. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
22. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
23. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
24. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
25. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
 

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Corpse

 

Wednesday Estimates (12/23) - Holiday (Emperor's Birthday)
¥415,000,000 ($3.43 million) / ¥2,549,340,000 ($21.05 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 6
¥395,000,000 ($3.26 million) / ¥1,620,808,800 ($13.37 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 5
¥104,000,000 ($860,000) / ¥1,007,839,700 ($8.27 million), Orange (Toho) Day 12
¥57,000,000 ($471,000) / ¥2,022,336,500 ($16.57 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 20
¥53,000,000 ($438,000) / ¥802,911,600 ($6.63 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 12

Very impressive Wednesday figures. Compared to Sunday, Wednesday was only down 25/30% for both Star Wars VII and Yo-Kai Watch 2.

2015's final two openers failed to impress for the day. Chibi Maruko-chan the Movie debut was pretty underwhelming, and I believe it missed the Top 5. Its avg ticket price was likely very low, so it probably came in right around ¥50 million (~$400,000). And Creed debuted yesterday as well, but only managed a 10th place debut based on estimates, possibly missing ¥30 million (sub-$250,000).

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens is on pace to exceed the ¥3 billion milestone on its 8th day of release. This would be two days slower than Revenge of the Sith, and 1 day faster than Attack of the Clones. The former, though, was quite frontloaded and became the lowest-grossing of the prequel trilogy.

I believe some goals here, taking the upcoming holiday frame into account, will be reaching the ¥5 billion milestone on day 15/16; and the ¥10 billion milestone between days 50-55.

If it hits ¥10 billion, it'll outgross Attack of the Clones (¥9.35 billion) and Revenge of the Sith (¥9.17 billion), and it'll be the first live-action film since 2010 to reach the uber-blockbuster mark of ¥10 billion.

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23 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

When's the next big movie due in Japan? Is it an anime adaptation, something original or is it Hollywood again? 

 

Kizumonogatari could make a dent. Its the first movie of the incredibly successful anime series Monogatari. Not only that but its an origin story (I think?) so it should mass fan appeal and potential in for newcomers. Comes out 8th of Jan.

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Corpse

 

Weekday Estimates (12/21-25)

 

Thursday Estimates (12/24)
¥210,000,000 ($1.75 million) / ¥2,759,340,000 ($22.80 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 7
¥94,000,000 ($778,000) / ¥1,714,808,800 ($14.16 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 6
¥77,000,000 ($636,000) / ¥1,084,839,700 ($8.92 million), Orange (Toho) Day 13
¥23,000,000 ($192,000) / ¥2,045,336,500 ($16.77 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 21
¥22,000,000 ($182,000) / ¥824,911,600 ($6.38 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 13
 
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Corpse

 

Friday Estimates (12/25)
¥230,000,000 ($1.91 million) / ¥2,989,340,000 ($24.71 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 8
¥137,000,000 ($1.14 million) / ¥1,851,808,800 ($15.30 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 7
¥105,000,000 ($873,000) / ¥1,189,839,700 ($9.79 million), Orange (Toho) Day 14
¥27,000,000 ($225,000) / ¥2,072,336,500 ($17.00 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 21
¥23,000,000 ($192,000) / ¥847,911,600 ($6.58 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 13

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2 hours ago, cremino said:

Corpse

 

Friday Estimates (12/25)
¥230,000,000 ($1.91 million) / ¥2,989,340,000 ($24.71 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Day 8
¥137,000,000 ($1.14 million) / ¥1,851,808,800 ($15.30 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Day 7
¥105,000,000 ($873,000) / ¥1,189,839,700 ($9.79 million), Orange (Toho) Day 14
¥27,000,000 ($225,000) / ¥2,072,336,500 ($17.00 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Day 21
¥23,000,000 ($192,000) / ¥847,911,600 ($6.58 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Day 13

So maybe 8-8.5m for SW's 3-day weekend? 75-80m is where this seems to be headed.

 

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Corpse

 

I didn't have time yesterday to track the box office, but Star Wars: The Force Awakens appears headed for a ¥700-750 million ($6-6.5 million) second weekend, while Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! might see a ¥500 million ($4-4.5 million) second weekend.

These numbers would bring Star Wars up to around ¥3.7/3.8 billion (~$31 million) after 10 days, and Yo-Kai Watch up to ¥2.3/2.4 billion (~$20 million) after 9 days.

This weekend generally isn't very strong since it's the last weekend before Winter Break/New Year begins. The upcoming couple weeks, beginning around the Dec. 30th through Jan. 10th is when the box office explodes in the market (Winter Break/New Year/Bank Holidays), and along with Golden Week and Obon Festival, earns its name as one of the big three weeks of the year.
 
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Corpse

 

Biggest Two-Week Totals [2001-]:

¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥4.37 billion* ($35.0 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥4.36 billion* ($36.2 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥4.24 billion ($34.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥4.18 billion ($35.3 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥4.07 billion ($36.1 million) - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005)
¥3.93 billion ($50.2 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part2 (2011)
¥3.91 billion ($31.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
¥3.75 billion ($32.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥3.7/3.8 billion ($31.0 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *Projection*
¥3.62 billion ($31.0 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥3.43 billion ($31.8 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥3.28 billion* ($32.1 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥3.24 billion* ($34.9 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥3.23 billion ($30.5 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥3.20 billion ($38.0 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥3.16 billion ($27.1 million) - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) - Frozen (2014)


*Opening day prior to start of weekend (Wednesday/Thursday)

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13 hours ago, James said:

So maybe 8-8.5m for SW's 3-day weekend? 75-80m is where this seems to be headed.

 

 

3-day weekend? The weekend number will be only for 2 days. Christmas Day is not a holiday. Also, with New Year's box office, I'm thinking at least 85m.

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9 hours ago, catlover said:

 

3-day weekend? The weekend number will be only for 2 days. Christmas Day is not a holiday. Also, with New Year's box office, I'm thinking at least 85m.

I know weekends in Japan are 2 days only. But as expected, last week Disney reported the 3-day number (13.3m). So by 3-day weekend I meant Fri-Sun, because I was interested in the drop SW would have from it's opening.

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Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (12/26-27)/2015年12月26日-2015年12月27日
01 (01) ¥660,000,000 ($5.49 million), -46%, ¥3,650,000,000 ($30.32 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 2
02 (02) ¥470,000,000 ($3.91 million), -54%, ¥2,320,000,000 ($19.27 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 2
03 (03) ¥210,000,000 ($1.75 million), -14%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($11.54 million), Orange (Toho) Week 3
04 (04) ¥102,000,000 ($849,000), -26%, ¥2,175,000,000 ($17.85 million), 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 4
05 (05) ¥78,000,000 ($649,000), -38%, ¥925,000,000 ($7.23 million), Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 3
06 (--) ¥50,000,000 ($415,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($998,000), Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥49,000,000 ($404,000), -40%, ¥505,000,000 ($4.17 million), Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 3
08 (09) ¥47,000,000 ($391,000), -07%, ¥410,000,000 ($3.39 million), High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 4
09 (08) ¥42,000,000 ($349,000), -42%, ¥623,304,800 ($5.11 million), Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 4
10 (07) ¥39,000,000 ($324,000), -40%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.10 million), The Peanuts Movie (Fox) Week 4

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens is down quite a bit, but with this past Wednesday being a holiday and moviegoers waiting for the upcoming New Year holiday period, I'm not too concerned. Its two-week total is very strong, too, so it's displaying solid weekday appeal (a sign it's skewing towards adults/seniors) and won't have to rely too much on its weekend earnings.

It's hard to compare it to the other Star Wars films since it's December versus July, but I believe it's still on track to outgross Attack of the Clones and Revenge of the Sith and make a play at achieving the ¥10 billion milestone (uber-blockbuster status), or around $80/85 million. So far, there's no indication it's going to go much higher, so challenging The Phantom Menace doesn't appear reasonable.

>Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! couldn't avoid a 50% drop, although the drop is noticeable better than last year's film (-64%). Its opening weekend was down 35% compared to last year's film, but its second weekend is down 21% by comparison. I think it's early enough to say that the sequel will go on to have stronger legs, so reaching the ¥5 billion milestone (blockbuster status) shouldn't be any real struggle.

>Orange continues to have incredibly strong legs before the New Year holiday period even begins. It's countering everything in release by being the #1 choice for females and young adults. It's well on its way to outgrossing all of 2015's shoji manga adaptations (which were quite strong already), and might be capable of reaching ¥3 billion. That'd give it a multiplier of nearly 10, and allow it to overtake Spectre to become the third biggest film of December 2015.

>Spectre suffered a huge drop last weekend, but began recovering over the weekdays and over the weekend frame. It's outpacing Skyfall by 22% after four weeks in release, but its fourth weekend is down 23% by comparison. So, I think its stronger start will be countered by weaker late returns, and it'll end up earning about the same as Skyfall (¥2.75 billion) in the end. Skyfall is the highest-grossing 007 film, for now.

>Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie starts off with a disappointing start. I'm not going to declare it an outright bomb yet, however, as it's likely to have very strong legs over the New Year holiday period coming up. However, it's clear that rebooting this very popular weekly cartoon for the big screen isn't going to reap the desired results.

Also, Creed may have debuted in the Top 10 (9th/10th place). I have it right around ¥40 million, but it'll come down to its avg. ticket price. If it skewed too old, it won't make the Top 10 (in revenue anyway).
 
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Corpse

 

Updated to include the final totals for 2015's releases, and of course, Star Wars: The Force Awakens will be joining the list pretty soon, too.

Top 100 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time

01 ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
02 ¥26.20 billion - Titanic (1997)
03 ¥25.48 billion - Frozen (2014)
04 ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 ¥19.60 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
06 ¥19.30 billion - Princess Mononoke (1997)
07 ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
08 ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
09 ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
10 ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
11 ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
12 ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
12 ¥13.50 billion - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
14 ¥13.40 billion - Armageddon (1998)
15 ¥12.85 billion - Jurassic Park (1993)
16 ¥12.70 billion - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
17 ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
18 ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Antarctica (1983)
19 ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
19 ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
23 ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
24 ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
25 ¥10.65 billion - Independence Day (1996)
26 ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
27 ¥10.10 billion - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
28 ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
29 ¥9.70 billion - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
29 ¥9.70 billion - A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001)
31 ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
32 ¥9.51 billion - Jurassic World (2015) [Final]
33 ¥9.50 billion - Back to the Future Part 2 (1989)
33 ¥9.50 billion - Jurassic Park: The Lost World (1997)
35 ¥9.40 billion - The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1986)
35 ¥9.40 billion - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
37 ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
38 ¥9.35 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
39 ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)
40 ¥9.20 billion - Heaven and Earth (1990)
41 ¥9.17 billion - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
42 ¥9.16 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014) [Final]
43 ¥9.07 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)
44 ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
45 ¥9.00 billion - Jaws (1975)
46 ¥8.96 billion - Monsters University (2013)
47 ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
48 ¥8.79 billion - Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)
49 ¥8.76 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
50 ¥8.70 billion - The Matrix (1999)
51 ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)
52 ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
53 ¥8.38 billion - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
54 ¥8.20 billion - Back to the Future Part 3 (1990)
54 ¥8.20 billion - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
54 ¥8.20 billion - The Silk Road (1988)
57 ¥8.15 billion - Hero (2007)
58 ¥8.10 billion - Deep Impact (1998)
59 ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
60 ¥8.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
61 ¥7.90 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
62 ¥7.80 billion - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014) [Final]
63 ¥7.75 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
64 ¥7.68 billion - The Sixth Sense (1999)
65 ¥7.65 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
66 ¥7.54 billion - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back (1998)
67 ¥7.50 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
68 ¥7.40 billion - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
69 ¥7.33 billion - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)
70 ¥7.31 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
71 ¥7.20 billion - Die Hard with a Vengeance (1995)
72 ¥7.12 billion - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
73 ¥7.10 billion - Umizaru: Limit of Love (2006)
74 ¥7.03 billion - Speed (1994)
75 ¥7.00 billion - Ghostbusters (1984)
75 ¥7.00 billion - Ocean's Eleven (2002)
77 ¥6.88 billion - Pearl Harbor (2001)
78 ¥6.87 billion - One Piece Film Z (2012)
79 ¥6.86 billion - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe (2006)
79 ¥6.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (2010)
81 ¥6.80 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
82 ¥6.70 billion - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
82 ¥6.70 billion - Top Gun (1986)
82 ¥6.70 billion - The Matrix Revolutions (2003)
85 ¥6.53 billion - Maleficent (2014)
86 ¥6.50 billion - Mission: Impossible (1996)
86 ¥6.50 billion - The Green Mile (2000)
88 ¥6.48 billion - Departures (2008)
89 ¥6.46 billion - The Cat Returns (2002)
90 ¥6.45 billion - Forrest Gump (1995)
91 ¥6.36 billion - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
92 ¥6.22 billion - The Towering Inferno (1975)
93 ¥6.17 billion - Phantom of the Opera (1990)
94 ¥6.10 billion - The Bodyguard (1992)
95 ¥6.09 billion - Back to the Future (1985)
96 ¥6.08 billion - The Ecstasy Hotel (2006)
97 ¥6.00 billion - War of the Worlds (2005)
98 ¥5.98 billion - Thermae Romae (2012)
99 ¥5.97 billion - Bayside Shakdown: Final (2012)
100 ¥5.95 billion - Cliffhanger (1993)

 

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