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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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16 hours ago, Eleven said:

So SW7 is still ahead of Frozen in a day of release comparison: after 24 days the animated was around 7,5 Byen (or 7,7Byen if we considere 25 days putting the day one of SW7 on friday instead of saturday). The two movies could remain head to head until week 7. During week 8 and 9 Anna&Elsa did their best collecting more than 5Byen combined (8th weekend over 1B): i don't think SW7 will be able to do this.

 

Yeah, Frozen had Golden Week on week 8 and 9. SW7 will have nothing to boost its box office. But SW7 is holding better than I expected. Its weekend estimate kept getting higher and higher, and the actual number is even bigger. I thought 10b yen ($85m) would be the target, but now it's heading to 11b yen ($90m+) and maybe $100m!

 

Also, congrats to Spectre for passing Skyfall in yen. I think only few markets managed to do this (having Spectre > Skyfall in local currency), so that's great.

 

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Usual Locations - Saturday Seating & Showtimes (66% of Market)

[01/16]
TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 375,918 (-23%), [229/1,614], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 5
02 (--) 278,709 (---), [223/1,199], Les saisons (Gaga)
03 (--) 239,913 (---), [225/1,115], In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (--) 225,186 (---), [207/1,132], Paddington (Kino Films) NEW

05 (02) 201,194 (-37%), [223/839], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 5
06 (04) 122,508 (-40%), [221/844], Bridge of Spies (Fox) Week 2
07 (03) 118,916 (-45%), [207/837], Life's Promise (Toho) Week 2
08 (05) 99,450 (-38%), [85/390], Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) Week 2
09 (06) 93,086 (-27%), [214/517], Orange (Toho) Week 6
10 (08) 52,320 (-31%), [70/263], Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) Week 2
11 (07) 51,779 (-34%), [172/359], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 4
12 (10) 48,252 (-33%), [215/318], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 6
13 (09) 41,839 (-42%), [216/257], 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 7
14 (11) 37,244 (-34%), [216/231], Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 7
15 (12) 35,125 (-32%), [162/204], Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 4
16 (--) 34,900 (---), [65/202], Sinbad: The Magic Lamp and the Moving Island (Aeon Entertainment) NEW
17 (14) 29,893 (-14%), [194/194], Kainan 1890 (Toei) Week 7
18 (--) 21,245 (---), [34/151], Something Like, Something Like It (Shochiku) NEW
19 (17) 19,651 (-14%), [90/98], High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 7
20 (16) 18,452 (-34%), [21/94], Garakowa: Restore the World (Pony Canyon) Week 2
21 (13) 16,344 (-60%), [104/106], Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) Week 6
22 (15) 12,157 (-57%), [65/88], Hana's Miso Soup (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 2
23 (20) 11,942 (-06%), [26/44], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 9
24 (22) 8,182 (-04%), [31/62], Tetsuya Kumakawa K-Ballet (Live Broadcast) Week 2
25 (21) 5,835 (-47%), [13/35], King of Prism by Pretty Rhythm (Avex Pictures) Week 2

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens will repeat atop the box-office again this weekend, and Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! may hold onto its second place position for yet another weekend as well.

>Les saisons should do somewhat well and is probably the only threat to challenge Yo-Kai Watch for that second place position (unless a certain bear surprises this weekend), though it'll be a challenge to do so. Nature documentaries (and French imports) generally do good business in Japan, and it certainly has the seats and screen count to take advantage of, so let's see if audiences turn up.

>Paddington got picked up by Kino Films late last year following its stellar reviews (its 98% RT score is on its Japanese poster), and they have a lot of faith in the film given it's by far their widest release ever. It's a big dark horse, and has breakout potential.

I can't recall any Kino Films release making the Top 10 (at least above 9th/10th place), and while they've probably had a few Top 10 debuts in the past, I highly doubt any past releases did as well for them as Paddington will this weekend.

>In the Heart of the Sea will likely disappoint and maybe make the Top 5 with luck.

Early Weekend Prediction (Top 10 Ranking):

01 (01) Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 5
02 (02) Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 5
03 (--) Les saisons (Gaga) NEW
04 (--) Paddington (Kino Films) NEW

05 (04) Bridge of Spies (Fox) Week 2
06 (03) Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) Week 2
07 (--) In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) NEW
08 (05) Orange (Toho) Week 6
09 (06) Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) Week 2
10 (07) Life's Promise (Toho) Week 2

The full Weekend Forecast will be posted tomorrow.
 
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Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (66% of Market)

[01/16]
TW (LW) Admissions (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 61,251 (-39%), [233/1,569], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 5
02 (--) 26,598 (---), [211/1,128], Paddington (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) 25,488 (-52%), [227/844], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) Week 5
04 (03) 23,446 (-50%), [86/387], Kizumonogatari Part 1 - Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) Week 2
05 (06) 17,919 (-28%), [217/511], Orange (Toho) Week 6
06 (--) 17,500 (---), [227/1,192], Les saisons (Gaga) NEW
07 (--) 15,495 (---), [228/1,107], In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) NEW

08 (04) 14,159 (-47%), [224/832], Bridge of Spies (Fox) Week 2
09 (05) 13,172 (-49%), [73/274], Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) Week 2
10 (07) 10,354 (-48%), [210/823], Life's Promise (Toho) Week 2
11 (08) 5,114 (-56%), [218/254], 007: Spectre (Sony) Week 7
12 (09) 5,083 (-50%), [175/350], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) Week 4
13 (10) 4,521 (-54%), [219/318], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) Week 6
14 (12) 4,185 (-51%), [26/42], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) Week 9
15 (11) 3,571 (-59%), [21/113], Garakowa: Restore the World (Pony Canyon) Week 2
16 (15) 3,062 (-16%), [93/101], High Speed! Free! Starting Days (Shochiku) Week 7
17 (--) 2,835 (---), [21/28], AKB48 Tandoku Request Hour Setlist Best 100 Singles - 2016 (Live Broadcast) NEW
18 (14) 2,241 (-41%), [163/200], Creed (Warner Bros.) Week 4
19 (13) 1,999 (-53%), [219/231], Persona Non Grata (Toho) Week 7
20 (--) 1,600 (---), [35/146], Something Like, Something Like It (Shochiku) NEW
21 (19) 1,584 (-25%), [13/35], King of Prism by Pretty Rhythm (Avex Pictures) Week 2
22 (17) 1,539 (-43%), [12/30], Crimson Peak (Toho-Towa) Week 2
23 (18) 1,411 (-47%), [191/196], Kainan 1890 (Toei) Week 7
24 (--) 1,134 (---), [8/12], AKB48 Tandoku Request Hour Setlist Best 100 Singles - 2016 (Final Episode) (Live Broadcast) NEW

Drops are pretty hard across the board, but now that New Year/Winter Break and last Monday's holiday are entirely finished, the declines aren't unexpected.

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens, as expected, will remain atop the box-office for a fifth-consecutive weekend (in gross). If next weekend's Nobunaga Concerto doesn't dethrone it, then it'll be occupying the #1 position for at least two, or three, more weeks.

>Paddington managed to finally bump Yo-Kai Watch out of the second place position, however, it's probably just at the usual locations above. Paddington isn't playing in as many theaters as Yo-Kai Watch outside of the usual locations, so it's still very unlikely to debut in second place on the national level. A third place debut is certainly nothing to be disappointed over though, and it'll be Kino Films' biggest debut by a considerable amount.

Anyway, Paddington is the only opener this weekend that has any shot at opening to ¥100 million. 78% of its overall theater count is accounted for above, so it's still going to be difficult reaching the mark over the weekend if Sunday doesn't increase.

>Les saisons didn't perform as well as I was expecting, and will certainly debut on the lower end of the nature documentaries list. Reviews, from what I read, are mixed, so perhaps that's the reason for its underwhelming start so far.

>In the Heart of the Sea disappoints as expected and won't make the Top 5 in its debut.

>Orange doesn't care if holidays or anything else is over as it continues to post excellent holds. A sixth weekend in the Top 5 looks very likely, as does its chances of reaching the ¥3 billion milestone. That'd give it a multiplier of nearly 10.

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Weekend Estimates (01/16-17)/2016年01月16日-2016年01月17日
01 (01) ¥334,000,000 ($2.9 million), -46%, ¥8,820,000,000 ($73.6 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) Week 5
02 (02) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -50%, ¥4,990,000,000 ($41.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) Week 5
03 (--) ¥100,000,000 ($855,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($983,000), Paddington (Kino Films) NEW
04 (05) ¥98,000,000 ($837,000), -28%, ¥2,830,000,000 ($23.5 million), Orange (Toho) Week 6
05 (--) ¥80,000,000 ($683,000), 0, ¥90,000,000 ($770,000), Les saisons (Gaga) NEW
06 (03) ¥74,000,000 ($635,000), -52%, ¥340,000,000 ($2.9 million), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) Week 2
07 (04) ¥72,000,000 ($615,000), -49%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.0 million), Bridge of Spies (Fox) Week 2
08 (--) ¥65,000,000 ($555,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($555,000), In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (06) ¥61,000,000 ($521,000), -40%, ¥265,000,000 ($2.3 million), Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) Week 2
10 (07) ¥51,000,000 ($437,000), -49%, ¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), Life's Promise (Toho) Week 2
 
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Weekend Actuals (01/16-17)/2016年01月16日-2016年01月17日
01 (01) ¥387,265,900 ($3.30 million), -37%, ¥9,013,440,900 ($74.05 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK5
02 (02) ¥159,688,300 ($1.36 million), -46%, ¥5,013,687,500 ($42.06 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK5
03 (--) ¥129,376,300 ($1.11 million), 0, ¥147,359,900 ($1.26 million), Paddington (Kino Films) NEW
04 (05) ¥105,738,600 ($903,000), -24%, ¥2,829,991,500 ($23.49 million), Orange (Toho) WK6
05 (--) ¥103,717,700 ($886,000), 0, ¥119,041,700 ($1.02 million), Les saisons (Gaga) NEW
06 (03) ¥94,310,500 ($806,000), -40%, ¥497,148,500 ($4.23 million), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) WK2
07 (--) ¥87,218,800 ($745,000), 0, ¥87,218,800 ($745,000), In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) NEW
08 (04) ¥77,874,200 ($666,000), -45%, ¥436,807,900 ($3.74 million), Bridge of Spies (Fox) WK2
09 (06) ¥60,821,600 ($520,000), -40%, ¥274,928,600 ($2.34 million), Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) WK2
10 (07) ¥55,662,600 ($476,000), -45%, ¥305,635,700 ($2.72 million), Life's Promise (Toho) WK2


>Star Wars: The Force Awakens remains atop the box-office for its fifth-consecutive week, selling an additional 236,219 admissions over the weekend, bringing its five week total up to 5,840,368 admissions.

The seventh entry in the Star Wars franchise has exceeded the ¥9 billion milestone, and is well on its way to exceeding the ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster milestone. It won't get there next weekend, but it'll certainly reach the mark by the end of January. It'll be only the second live-action film this decade, since 2010's Alice in Wonderland, to reach this major milestone.

Also, after just five weeks in release, it has nearly outgrossed Revenge of the Sith (¥9.17 billion) and Attack of the Clones (¥9.35 billion). It'll surpass the former well before next weekend, and may even outgross the latter before next weekend, too. Outgrossing The Phantom Menace (¥12.85 billion) remains a long-shot, but it'll come much closer than most expected.

>Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! holds steady in its second place position during its fifth weekend in release. The second film in the massively popular multi-media franchise sold 137,368 tickets over its fifth weekend frame, bringing its five week total up to 4,572,584 admissions.

And after five weeks in release, it exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone. If it follows its predecessor from this point forward, it'll end up grossing ~¥5.7 billion (~$48 million) with ~5.2 million admissions. That's down about 27% compared to the first film, however, it will have improved upon being down 35% on opening weekend. And selling over 5 million tickets again is a major accomplishment.

>Paddington finally reached Japanese shores, an entire full year after making its debut in most of the world last year.

The live-action adaptation of the popular Peruvian bear debuted on 315 screens, a new record for independent studio Kino Films, and sold a solid 99,913 admissions over the weekend frame. Kino Films picked up the film late last year, seeing the potential it had, along with the stellar reviews, and it has proven to be a excellent investment. I don't think it has ¥1 billion potential, unfortunately, but it should be aiming for ¥700/800 million ($6/7 million).

>Orange continues its incredible run by rising to fourth place in its sixth weekend of release, and actually managed to stay above the ¥100 million mark in the process. For comparison's sake, its sixth weekend is more than 1/3rd of its opening weekend.

I thought it'd have to crawl to the ¥3 billion milestone (and 2.5 million admissions), which would have been a huge achievement, but it's going to exceed the marks quite effortlessly now, and may end up closer to ¥3.5 billion. It's by far the highest-grossing shoji/josei adaptation this decade.

>Les saisons, the french nature documentary, came in nicely above estimates and broke the ¥100 million mark in its debut weekend. Released through independent distributor Gaga, the film sold 83,695 admissions over the weekend, and 96,792 admissions since opening on Friday.

Nature documentaries, as well as French imports, do solid business in Japan, and while this one is on the lower-end of long nature documentary list, it's still a fair enough opening.

>In the Heart of the Sea had to settle for a poor seventh place debut, which while not unexpected, is still very disappointing. The Ron Howard adaptation of the source material of the same name, only sold 63,901 admissions across 561 screens over the weekend.

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cremino is way better collecting details than e.g.

http://variety.com/2016/film/asia/japan-box-office-star-wars-third-weekend-1201682553/

Quote

 

TOKYO – “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” won its third consecutive weekend at the Japanese box office. In the January 16-17 frame it recorded $3.3 million on 236,000 admissions, while running its cumulative total to $77 million.

The RPG-game-based animation “Yo-Kai Watch the Movie 2: King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan!” held onto the number two spot for the third weekend in a row. Distributed by Toho, the film earned $1.36 million on 137,000 admissions , while boosting its cumultive past the JPY5 billion ($43 million) milestone.

The highest new entry was “Paddington,” landing in third, some 14 months after it premiered in the U.K. Released on Jan. 15 by Kino Films, the animation-live action hybrid scored $1.1 million on 99,900 admissions from 315 screens on Saturday and Sunday.  The forecast for its final total is $7 million.

 

 

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39th Japan Academy Prize - Nominations

Picture of the Year
ImageImageImageImageImage
Sea Town Diary
Kainan 1890
Japan's Longest Day
Living With My Mother
100 Yen Love

Animation of the Year
ImageImageImageImageImage
The Anthem of the Heart
Miss Hokusai
Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F
The Boy and the Beast
Love Live! The School Idol Movie

Foreign Language Picture of the Year
ImageImageImageImageImage
American Sniper
Kingsman: The Secret Service
Whiplash
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spectre

Director of the Year
Ohne Hitoshi (Bakuman)
Koreeda Hirokazu (Sea Town Diary)
Take Masaharu (100 Yen Love)
Tanaka Mitsutoshi (Kainan 1890)
Harada Masato (Japan's Longest Day)

Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Uchino Seiyo (Kainan 1890)
Oizumi Yo (Kakekomi)
Sato Koichi (Terminal)
Ninomiya Kazunari (Living With My Mother)
Yakusho Koji (Japan's Longest Day)

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Ayase Haruka (Sea Town Diary)
Arimura Kasumi (Biri Gal)
Ando Sakura (100 Yen Love)
Kiki Kirin (An)
Yoshinaga Sayuri (Living With My Mother)

Outstanding Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Asano Tadanobu (Living With My Mother)
Arai Hirofumi (100 Yen Love)
Ito Atsushi (Biri Gal)
Sometani Shota (Bakuman)
Motoki Masahiro (The Big Bee)
Motoki Masahiro (Japan's Longest Day)

Outstanding Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Kaho (Sea Town Diary)
Kuroki Haru (Living With My Mother)
Nagasawa Masami (Sea Town Diary)
Mitsushima Hikari (Kakekomi)
Yoshida Yo (Biri Gal)

Newcomer of the Year
Arimura Kasumi (Biri Gal)
Tsuchiya Tao (Orange)
Hirose Suzu (Sea Town Diary)
Fujino Ryoko (Solomon's Perjury)
Shinohara Atsushi (Koibitotachi)
Noda Yojiro (Pieta in the Toilet)
Yamazaki Kento (Orange, No Longer Heroine)
Yamada Ryosuke (Assassination Classroom)

Full List of Nominees

Sea Town Diary, directed by Koreeda Hirokazu, scored the most nominations with a stunning twelve nods. It's the favorite to sweep the awards this year, too. Last year, The Eternal Zero won in eight of its eleven nominated categories, including Picture and Director.

Animation of the Year should go to The Boy and the Beast or The Anthem of the Heart. Mamoru Hosoda's previous three films have all won the prize in their respective years, so the former is a good bet.

Best Foreign Language Picture is interesting this year. There's usually a clear frontrunner, or two, but this year's looks like a toss-up to me. I'm going with either American Sniper or Mad Max: Fury Road taking the prize home this year.
 
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Previous winners in the three Best Picture categories:

Best Picture Winners:
2014 - The Eternal Zero (Takashi Yamazaki)
2013 - The Great Passage (Yuya Ishii)
2012 - The Eighth Day Cicada (Izuru Narushima)
2011 - Confessions (Tetsuya Nakashima)
2010 - The Unbroken (Setsurō Wakamatsu)
2009 - Departures (Tojiro Takita)
2008 - Tokyo Tower: Me and Mom, and Sometimes Dad (Yoji Matsuka)
2007 - Hula Girls (Lee Sang-il)
2006 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Takashi Yamazaki)
2005 - Half a Confession (Kiyoshi Sasabe)
2004 - When the Last Sword is Drawn (Yojiro Takita)
2003 - The Twilight Samurai (Yoji Yamada)
2002 - Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki)
2001 - After the Rain (Takashi Koizuma)
2000 - Poppoya (Yasuo Furuhata)
1999 - Begging for Love (Hideyuki Hirayama)
1998 - Princess Mononoke (Hayao Miyazaki)
1997 - Shall We Dance (Masayuki Suo)
1996 - A Last Note (Kaneto Shindo)
1995 - Crest of Betrayal (Kinji Fukasaku)
1994 - A Class to Remember (Yoji Yamada)
1993 - Sumo Do, Sumo Don't (Masayuki Suo)
1992 - My Sons (Yoji Yamada)
1991 - Childhood Days (Masahiro Shinoda)
1990 - Black Rain (Shohei Imamura)
1989 - The Silk Road (Junya Sato)
1988 - A Taxing Woman (Juzo Itami)
1987 - House on Fire (Kinji Fukasaku)
1986 - Gray Sunset (Shunya Itō)
1985 - The Funeral (Juzo Itami)
1984 - The Ballad of Narayama (Shohei Imamura)
1983 - Fall Guy (Kinji Fukasaku)
1982 - Station (Yasuo Furuhata)
1981 - Zigeunerweisen (Seijun Suzuki)
1980 - Vengeance is Mine (Shohei Imamura)
1979 - The Incident (Yoshitaro Nomura)
1978 - The Yellow Handkerchief (Yoji Yamada)


Best Animated Picture Winners:
2014 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Takashi Yamazaki)
2013 - The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki)
2012 - The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Mamoru Hosoda)
2011 - From Up on Poppy Hill (Goro Miyazaki)
2010 - Arrietty (Hiromasa Yonebayashi)
2009 - Summer Wars (Mamoru Hosoda)
2008 - Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki)
2007 - Tekkonkinkreet (Michael Arias)
2006 - The Girl Who Leapt Through Time (Mamoru Hosoda)


Best Foreign Language Picture Winners:
2014 - Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee)
2013 - Les Miserables (Tom Hooper)
2012 - The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)
2011 - The King's Speech (Tom Hooper)
2010 - Avatar (James Cameron)
2009 - Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
2008 - The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2007 - Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood)
2006 - Flags of Our Father (Clint Eastwood)
2005 - Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood)
2004 - The Last Samurai (Edward Zwick)
2003 - The Pianist (Roman Polanski)
2002 - Monster's Ball (Marc Foster)
2001 - Billy Elliot (Stephen Daldry)
2000 - Dancer in the Dark (Lars von Trier)
1999 - The Sixth Sense (M. Night Shyamalan)
1998 - L.A. Confidential (Curtis Hanson)
1997 - Titanic (James Cameron)
1996 - II Postino (Michael Radford)
1995 - The Shawshank Redemption (Frank Darabont)
1994 - Schindler's List (Steven Spielberg)
1993 - Jurassic Park (Steven Spielberg)
1992 - JFK (Oliver Stone)
1991 - Dances with Wolves (Kevin Costner)
1990 - Field of Dreams (Phil Alden Robinson)
1989 - Die Hard (John McTiernan)
1988 - The Last Emperor (Bernardo Bertolucci)
1987 - Platoon (Oliver Stone)
1986 - Back to the Future (Robert Zemeckis)
1985 - Amadeus (Milos Forman)
1984 - Once Upon a Time in America (Sergio Leone)
1983 - An Officer and a Gentlemen (Taylor Hackford)
1982 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (Steven Spielberg)
1981 - Die Blechtrommel (Volker Schlöndorff)
1980 - Kramer vs. Kramer (Robert Benton)
1979 - The Deer Hunter (Michael Cimino)
1978 - Conversation Piece (Luchino Visconti)
1977 - Rocky (John G. Avildsen)
 
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Weekend Forecast (01/23-24)/2016年01月23日-2016年01月24日
01 (--) ¥400,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($3.4 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥291,000,000 ($2.5 million), -25%, ¥9,600,000,000 ($79.1 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK6
03 (--) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Walk (Sony) NEW
04 (02) ¥102,000,000 ($860,000), -36%, ¥5,150,000,000 ($43.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK6
05 (03) ¥100,000,000 ($840,000), -22%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), Paddington (Kino Films) WK2
06 (--) ¥90,000,000 ($760,000), 0, ¥90,000,000 ($760,000), Shuriken Sentai Ninninger vs Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland (Toei) NEW
07 (05) ¥68,000,000 ($570,000), -34%, ¥250,000,000 ($2.1 million), Les Saisons (Gaga) WK2
08 (04) ¥58,000,000 ($490,000), -45%, ¥2,930,000,000 ($24.3 million), Orange (Toho) WK7
09 (08) ¥54,000,000 ($455,000), -30%, ¥560,000,000 ($4.8 million), Bridge of Spies (Fox) WK3
10 (06) ¥53,000,000 ($445,000), -44%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.1 million), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) WK3


There was heavy snowfall in parts of Japan early this past week, especially in Tokyo (affecting trains, buses, etc.), so weekday numbers were a bit muted compared to normal weeks. So, as a result, some of the weekend drops this weekend could be stronger than what I'm predicting based on pre-sales and Saturday morning/afternoon ticket sales.

>Nobunaga Concerto, from Hiroaki Matsuyama, based on the Fuji TV drama and manga series, has some impressive pre-sales and Saturday morning/afternoon ticket sales, and is almost certain to dethrone Star Wars: The Force Awakens atop the box-office this weekend. If it can open anywhere close to or over ¥400 million, it'll have a good chance of earning over ¥2 billion, likely making it the biggest film from now until Spring rolls around.

It's great news for Nobunaga, obviously, but disappointing for The Force Awakens since its reign on top will come to an end. If it had won this weekend, what would have been its sixth-consecutive in terms of gross, it'd have gone into February at #1 giving it at least eight-consecutive weeks on top.

>The Walk is looking to debut reasonably well, and pre-sales would have to be way off for it to miss opening above ¥100 million. It may even have ¥150 million potential, but I'll meet that half-way. And after checking how absolutely terrible its performance was across the globe, Japan will easily be one of its best markets ($5 million+ is quite likely if it opens over ¥100 million), so probably only behind the U.S.

>Persona 3 The Movie: No. 4, Winter of Rebirth is a limited release that has Top 10 potential but seeing as how it'll need to gross ~¥50 million+ to make it, it's unlikely. It's a dark horse though, and pre-sales are good, so don't be surprised if it earns a Top 10 debut either.
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Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (66% of Market)

[01/23]
TW (LW) Admissions (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (--) 132,476 (---), [222/1,166], Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) NEW
02 (01) 44,853 (-27%), [230/1,284], Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK6
03 (--) 26,997 (---), [216/964], Shuriken Sentai Ninninger vs Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland (Toei) NEW
04 (02) 20,528 (-23%), [207/855], Paddington (Kino Films) WK2
05 (03) 16,100 (-37%), [223/679], Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) WK6
06 (--) 15,322 (---), [229/1,183], The Walk (Sony) NEW
07 (04) 12,488 (-47%), [85/301], Kizumonogatari Part 1 - Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) WK3
08 (--) 11,804 (---), [26/138], Persona 3 The Movie: No. 4, Winter of Rebirth (Aniplex) NEW
09 (06) 11,375 (-35%), [220/809], Les Saisons (Gaga) WK2
10 (05) 10,725 (-40%), [212/370], Orange (Toho) WK7
11 (08) 9,452 (-33%), [222/609], Bridge of Spies (Fox) WK3
12 (09) 7,914 (-40%), [73/212], Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) WK3
13 (--) 6,996 (---), [48/64], AKB48 Tandoku Request Hour Setlist Best - 2016 (Live Broadcast) NEW
14 (07) 6,522 (-58%), [222/799], In the Heart of the Sea (Warner Bros.) WK2
15 (10) 5,952 (-42%), [207/630], Life's Promise (Toho) WK3
16 (--) 3,286 (---), [30/139], American Ultra (Kadokawa) NEW
17 (12) 2,919 (-43%), [173/209], Chibi Maruko-chan: The Movie (Toho) WK5
18 (11) 2,818 (-45%), [131/143], 007: Spectre (Sony) WK8
19 (--) 2,753 (---), [59/250], Memories of the Sword (Clockworks) NEW
20 (15) 2,599 (-27%), [21/66], Garakowa: Restore the World (Pony Canyon) WK3
21 (13) 2,127 (-53%), [179/196], Living With My Mother (Shochiku) WK7
22 (14) 2,080 (-50%), [17/28], Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) WK10
23 (21) 1,475 (-07%), [12/16], King of Prism by Pretty Rhythm (Avex Pictures) WK3
24 (18) 1,080 (-52%), [152/159], Creed (Warner Bros.) WK5
25 (--) 968 (---), [2/5], David Bowie Is Happening Now (Culture-Ville) Re-release

>Nobunaga Concerto crushed it yesterday. If Sunday doesn't decrease too much (>15%), there's a chance that it could reach 400,000 admissions, which would likely guarantee a ¥500 million debut. A potential debut of this level is very rare for January, and would give it one of the biggest openings for the month ever. I'll put together a list later, but I'm thinking Top 5 based on my recollection. And in any event, a debut above ¥400 million is certainly happening now.

>Shuriken Sentai Ninninger vs Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland is doing as expected and is on track for a debut around ¥100 million, if not slightly less since its avg. ticket prices are very low each year. It should make the Top 5, but I don't believe it'll beat either Paddington or Yo-Kai Watch due to the series frontload nature.

>The Walk didn't perform as well as pre-sales were suggesting. In fact, they represented a whopping 40% of its admissions. That's very unusual for a film that shouldn't have any rush factor. It depends on the film, but most films' pre-sales represent 20% or less of their first day admissions.
 
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Biggest January Opening Weekends [1998-]
Rank - Weekend Gross / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film

01. ¥622,166,970 / 556,354 [374] - 20th Century Boys - Chapter 2: The Last Hope (2009)
02. ¥603,178,517 / 438,000 [293] - Flightplan (2006)
03. ¥592,823,764 / 454,220 [410] - Gantz (2011)
04. ¥567,311,720 / 415,723 [280] - The Uchoten Hotel (2006)
05. ¥554,622,794 / 421,274 [473] - Always: Sunset on Third Street '64 (2012)
06. ¥552,421,143 / 409,112 [510] - Ocean's Twelve (2005)
07. ¥490,000,000 / 380,000 [324] - Nobunaga Concerto (2016) *Projected*
08. ¥456,779,210 / 357,976 [257] - Hunter × Hunter: Phantom Rouge (2013)
09. ¥452,401,468 / 335,800 [295] - Dororo (2007)
10. ¥439,027,756 / 387,188 [334] - Mamma Mia! (2009)
11. ¥398,664,875 / 292,000 [400] - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
12. ¥358,700,188 / 285,000 [275] - Earth (2008)
¥350 million+
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Weekend Estimates (01/23-24)/2016年01月23日-2016年01月24日
01 (--) ¥540,000,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥540,000,000 ($4.6 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥290,000,000 ($2.5 million), -25%, ¥9,600,000,000 ($79.1 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK6
03 (--) ¥100,000,000 ($840,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($840,000), Shuriken Sentai Ninninger/Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥98,000,000 ($825,000), -39%, ¥5,145,000,000 ($43.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK6
05 (03) ¥97,000,000 ($820,000), -25%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), Paddington (Kino Films) WK2
06 (05) ¥71,000,000 ($600,000), -32%, ¥255,000,000 ($2.2 million), Les Saisons (Gaga) WK2
07 (--) ¥70,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($590,000), The Walk (Sony) NEW
08 (04) ¥63,000,000 ($530,000), -40%, ¥2,935,000,000 ($24.4 million), Orange (Toho) WK7
09 (06) ¥52,000,000 ($435,000), -45%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.1 million), Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) WK3
10 (08) ¥51,000,000 ($425,000), -35%, ¥560,000,000 ($4.8 million), Bridge of Spies (Fox) WK3

>Nobunaga Concerto appears to have delivered a significant opening weekend, almost certainly above the ¥500 million mark. It ends the #1 steak of The Force Awakens, and did so by achieving one of the highest debuts for this time of year ever. Also, the fact that a film already this year could reach the ¥3 billion milestone gives 2016 an excellent start.

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens falls to second place, but continues to hold well and is coming ever closer to the ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster mark. It has also outgrossed Revenge of the Sith and Attack of the Clones, and still has plenty left to earn in the coming months.

>The Walk is off to a mediocre start, which is a shame since pre-sales were indicating a opening quite a bit higher. If its premium format showings were popular, it may com in a little higher than the estimate above, but not much higher.
 
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38 minutes ago, Aristis said:

"and, notably, slow-burn Japan at $80M where The Force has now held the No. 1 spot for six consecutive weekends." (Deadline)

Was Nobunaga Concerto lower than expected?

These kind of sentences often mean only amongst Hollywood films.

Edited by Tower
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