JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

Seat counts for Saturday, June 18th

 

Rank seats  shows  avg seats theater screens % of overall market

*1　278995　1124　248.2　221　320　69.1%　６４－ロクヨン－後編 (64 Part 2)
*2　235336　1081　217.7　213　301　70.8%　貞子ｖｓ伽椰子 (Sadako vs. Kayako)
*3　192044　*955　201.1　192　256　75.0%　クリーピー 偽りの隣人 (Creepy Neighbor)
*4　182730　*907　201.5　221　307　72.0%　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいました (Evergreen Love)
*5　161393　*692　233.2　226　348　64.9%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*6　153639　*478　321.4　*85　196　43.4%　ＭＡＲＳ（マース） ただ、君を愛してる (Mars)
*7　150028　*878　170.9　229　351　65.2%　デッドプール (Deadpool)
*8　*92658　*525　176.5　108　143　75.5%　１０ クローバーフィールド・レーン (10 Cloverfield Lane)

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11972.html

[LMAbacus]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

BTW, mimorin2014 is going to be of limited usefulness for today and tomorrow. Toho's data was missing last week.

 

It was missing for last Thursday, but they fixed it by last Friday, so this Friday's drop will be accurate.

 

Looks like the top release for this week is their equivalent of Freddy vs. Jason.

Edited June 16, 2016 by LMAbacus

[Cookson]

What's the hype for Shin-Gojira like? It seems like merchandise for the film is selling very well, and the way they're doing advance tickets leads me to think it'll do very well opening weekend.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Weekend Forecast (06/18-19)/2016年06月18日-2016年06月19日
01 (01) ¥216,000,000 ($2.1 million), -39%, ¥875,000,000 ($8.3 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥213,000,000 ($2.0 million), -25%, ¥6,900,000,000 ($64.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK9
03 (03) ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million), -20%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($11.9 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK3
04 (04) ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), -37%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.7 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK3
05 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥150,000,090 ($1.4 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) NEW
06 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), Mars (Showgate) NEW
07 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($960,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($960,000), Creepy (Shochiku) NEW
08 (05) ¥93,000,000 ($895,000), -24%, ¥975,000,000 ($9.0 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK4
09 (---) ¥50,000,000 ($480,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($625,000), 10 Cloverfield Lane (Toho-Towa) NEW
10 (06) ¥49,000,000 ($470,000), -31%, ¥1,725,000,000 ($16.1 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK7

This weekend is the definition of a dump weekend in a traditional dumping month.

We will have a very close race to see which holdover will come out on top this weekend. 64: Part 2 is probably the slight favorite, but Zootopia could certainly reclaim the #1 position (in its ninth weekend!). Also, in what would be a huge surprise, Evergreen Love has a shot at rising to the #1 position (it's looking at the best hold this weekend), capturing the top spot for the first time since settling for third place the past two weeks. All three look likely to earn between ¥200-225 million this weekend.

Now onto the openers...

Sadako vs Kayako, I think, will end up being the top opener over the weekend, but it's only going to achieve a fourth place debut at best. The film puts the iconic horror characters from The Ring and Grudge franchises against one another as they, probably, frighten the cast.

Mars has some nice pre-sales, but it's only playing on 197 screens and should have poor walk-up business since the majority of its pre-sales are coming from stage greetings. It could end up as the weekend's top opener, though.

Creepy has the most potential based on the cast & crew credits, starring a popular lead in Hidetoshi Nishijima, but its pre-sales are the weakest and its screen count of 256 is unimpressive. It's the most unlikely to become the weekend's top opener, but it can't be ruled out completely since its walk-up business should be the strongest.

10 Cloverfield Lane is being dumped without any effort at trying to give it a respectable opening. It's only playing on 143 screens, and only earned around ¥15 million ($150,000) yesterday (Friday). A weekend around ¥50 million is probably the best it can manage to bring do.

 

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, Cookson said:

What's the hype for Shin-Gojira like? It seems like merchandise for the film is selling very well, and the way they're doing advance tickets leads me to think it'll do very well opening weekend.

I don't really have any idea. You might have to wait a month to be more sure.

[cannastop]

Weekend sample results:

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12022.html

 

*1　90772　369055　1808　222　*79.3%　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいました (Evergreen Love)
*2　86104　327964　1387　227　*71.6%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*3　83215　562246　2238　222　*51.7%　６４－ロクヨン－後編 (64 Part 2)
*4　79204　485034　2311　222　******　貞子ｖｓ伽椰子 (Sadako vs Kayako)
*5　59241　297488　1743　230　*62.6%　デッドプール (Deadpool)

 

Sadako vs. Kayako did better than Corpse thought, but the top 3 did a bit worse than expected. It looks like it will be a close call between Evergreen Love and Zootopia. The sample makes up a bigger part of Evergreen Love's total admissions, so the lead might not hold. It's a poor showing at the box office when the top movie can't clear ¥200m.

 

 

[cannastop]

Corpse sez

 

Quote

(C) 2016「植物図鑑」製作委員会
(C) 2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved

Weekend Estimates (06/18-19)/2016年06月18日-2016年06月19日
01 (03) ¥204,000,000 ($2.0 million), -20%, ¥1,265,000,000 ($11.8 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK3
01 (02) ¥204,000,000 ($2.0 million), -28%, ¥6,890,000,000 ($63.9 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK9
03 (01) ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), -48%, ¥845,000,000 ($8.1 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK2
04 (04) ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), -37%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.7 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK3
05 (---) ¥155,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥155,000,000 ($1.5 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) NEW
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($960,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($960,000), Creepy (Shochiku) NEW
07 (05) ¥83,000,000 ($800,000), -32%, ¥965,000,000 ($8.9 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK4
08 (---) ¥65,000,000 ($630,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($630,000), Mars (Showgate) NEW
09 (06) ¥43,000,000 ($415,000), -39%, ¥1,720,000,000 ($16.0 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK7
10 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($385,000), 0, ¥55,000,000 ($530,000), 10 Cloverfield Lane (Toho-Towa) NEW

As mentioned above, the Top 3 (though I think it'll be only the Top 2) films are too close to one another to accurately call which film ranked #1 for the weekend. Either Evergreen Love or Zootopia do appear to have taken the top spot. If it's the former, it'll have done so without ranking higher than third place over the weekend since opening. And if it's the latter, then it will have reclaimed the top spot in its ninth weekend in release - a very impressive feat.

Sadako vs. Kayako actually performed very well on Sunday and will end up with a respectable debut (which could still be a fourth place start). The opening is notable higher than the last entries in The Ring and The Grudge series from the past couple years, but I'll wait until actuals to post how this showdown between the two horror icons compares to their own series' most recent opening weekends.

Creepy opened with a mediocre number as expected. If it comes in above ¥100 million, though, I figure it'll be seen as a "success" given the somewhat low screen count (256) and what's generally a poor time of the year for the box office. June is a traditional dumping ground.

Mars on the other hand performed quite terribly. Its pre-sales alone (boosted by stage greetings) represented ~40% of its weekend admissions, and as a result, it dropped over 50% on Sunday.

 

[cannastop]

The Japanese box office is going to be totally fucking dead until Finding Dory comes along on July 16th.

[CJohn]

When is Jungle Book coming out?

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

When is Jungle Book coming out?

August 11.

[Cynosure]

18 minutes ago, cannastop said:

The Japanese box office is going to be totally fucking dead until Finding Dory comes along on July 16th.

 

May (Golden Week excepted) and June are usually dead months. They actually haven't been too bad this year.

[Cookson]

Summer doesn't start till July 20th if I remember correctly. Does the box office pick up after that?

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Admissions
01. Evergreen Love (reclaiming the #1 spot in its third week)
02. 64: Part 2
03. Zootopia
04. Sadako vs. Kayako

Gross
01. Zootopia (reclaiming the #1 spot in its ninth week)
02. Sadako vs. Kayako
03. Evergreen Love
04. 64: Part 2

 

An entire top 4 ranking different in admissions and gross, that's got to be very very rare.

Edited June 20, 2016 by Cynosure

[cannastop]

I'll just do this update of Corpse's multiplier list:

 

All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-]
01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) 
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008) 
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012) 
07. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
08. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013) 
09. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
10. 15.50 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016) [9 Weeks in Release]
11. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
12. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
13. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
14. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
15. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
16. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
17. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
18. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
19. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
20. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
21. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
22. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 
23. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 
24. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
25. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
26. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
27. 12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012) 

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C) 2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved

Weekend Actuals (06/18-19)/2016年06月18日-2016年06月19日
01 (02) ¥200,256,500 ($1.93 million), -30%, ¥6,908,884,800 ($64.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK9
02 (---) ¥198,540,600 ($1.91 million), 0, ¥198,540,600 ($1.9 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) NEW
03 (03) ¥198,536,700 ($1.91 million), -22%, ¥1,308,952,490 ($12.1 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK3
04 (01) ¥189,239,200 ($1.82 million), -47%, ¥942,284,600 ($8.9 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK2
05 (04) ¥154,300,400 ($1.48 million), -39%, ¥1,585,654,900 ($14.8 million), Deadpool (Fox) WK3
06 (---) ¥127,289,200 ($1.22 million), 0, ¥127,289,200 ($1.22 million), Creepy (Shochiku) NEW
07 (05) ¥81,011,700 ($779,000), -34%, ¥980,510,000 ($9.1 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) WK4
08 (---) ¥79,039,600 ($760,000), 0, ¥79,039,600 ($760,000), Mars (Showgate) NEW
09 (06) ¥48,353,900 ($465,000), -32%, ¥1,735,574,400 ($16.2 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK7
10 (07) ¥42,161,600 ($405,000), -39%, ¥407,568,400 ($3.8 million), The Kodai Family (Toho) WK3

An incredibly close race for the #1 position this weekend, but Zootopia managed to come out on top; reclaiming the #1 spot, its fifth #1 ranking overall, in its ninth weekend of release. After nine weeks in release, Disney's blockbuster has exceeded 5.3 million admissions, and has brought its running multiplier up to a massive 15.49. It has begun to lose some momentum (even though it's back on top), so a final total around ¥8 billion (~$75 million) and 6 million admissions seems to be the goal.

Sadako vs. Kayako makes a surprising debut in second place, and nearly took the #1 spot. The horror film pitting the horror icons from the popular Ring and Grudge franchises sold 140,581 admissions over the weekend across 352 screens. This debut is 154% ahead of last year's final Grudge film; 24% ahead of Sadako 3D2 (from The Ring franchise); though fell short 19% of the first Sadako 3D. Overall, a solid weekend indeed, and it just might be able to reach the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone.

Creepy missed the Top 5, though it managed to come in comfortably above the ¥100 million mark, which isn't too bad for a June release. The live-action adaptation of the the award-winning mystery novel, and starring Hidetoshi Nishijima, sold 96,394 admissions on 256 screens.

Mars is a pretty big disappointment, selling just 59,206 admissions on 197 screens in its debut. It was also notable frontloaded over the weekend with pre-sales accounting for ~25% of its weekend admissions, and it also experienced a Sunday decline over 50%.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Biggest Ninth Weekends/Nine Week Totals -> Final Totals (2001-)

¥737.8 million (-34%) [1st] / ¥17.08 billion -> ¥25.48 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥650.0 million (-07%) [1st] / ¥19.98 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥419.2 million (+21%) [1st] / ¥10.47 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥404.7 million (-20%) [1st] / ¥11.87 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥377.4 million (-11%) [1st] / ¥15.27 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥343.5 million (-45%) [1st] / ¥15.76 billion -> ¥19.60 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥324.9 million (-29%) [2nd] / ¥10.62 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥296.5 million (-31%) [2nd] / ¥17.89 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥278.1 million (-45%) [1st] / ¥15.23 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥259.9 million (-31%) [3rd] / ¥13.88 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥214.9 million (-11%) [2nd] / ¥10.29 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥201.2 million (-51%) [3rd] / ¥11.92 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥200.3 million (-30%) [1st] / ¥6.91 billion -> ¥?.?? billion - Zootopia (2016)
¥200 million+

Zootopia has really joined an elusive list here (even if just barely) and it's such the oddball out, and quite the unique entry - demonstrating how incredible its run at the box office has been thus far.

All of the other films on the list are above the uber-blockbuster milestone of ¥10 billion (some way above) after their ninth weekends, a milestone that Zootopia isn't going to quite achieve (it's targeting a final total of ~¥8 billion). Also, all of the other films on the list are in the Top 20 films of all-time (8 are in the Top 10 films of all-time). By comparison, Zootopia will end up somewhere between 54-59 on the all-time list.
 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Cynosure said:

Corpse :

 

Biggest Ninth Weekends/Nine Week Totals -> Final Totals (2001-)

¥737.8 million (-34%) [1st] / ¥17.08 billion -> ¥25.48 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥650.0 million (-07%) [1st] / ¥19.98 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥419.2 million (+21%) [1st] / ¥10.47 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥404.7 million (-20%) [1st] / ¥11.87 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥377.4 million (-11%) [1st] / ¥15.27 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥343.5 million (-45%) [1st] / ¥15.76 billion -> ¥19.60 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥324.9 million (-29%) [2nd] / ¥10.62 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥296.5 million (-31%) [2nd] / ¥17.89 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥278.1 million (-45%) [1st] / ¥15.23 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥259.9 million (-31%) [3rd] / ¥13.88 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥214.9 million (-11%) [2nd] / ¥10.29 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥201.2 million (-51%) [3rd] / ¥11.92 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥200.3 million (-30%) [1st] / ¥6.91 billion -> ¥?.?? billion - Zootopia (2016)
¥200 million+

Zootopia has really joined an elusive list here (even if just barely) and it's such the oddball out, and quite the unique entry - demonstrating how incredible its run at the box office has been thus far.

All of the other films on the list are above the uber-blockbuster milestone of ¥10 billion (some way above) after their ninth weekends, a milestone that Zootopia isn't going to quite achieve (it's targeting a final total of ~¥8 billion). Also, all of the other films on the list are in the Top 20 films of all-time (8 are in the Top 10 films of all-time). By comparison, Zootopia will end up somewhere between 54-59 on the all-time list.
 

Similar thing happened with its weekends in its home market. Most of the movies that it's next to on the 3rd, 4th or 5th weekend lists on box office mojo have made more than $400m dom.

[cannastop]

For some reason, the Yen numbers on box office mojo don't match what Corpse said.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2016&wk=25&currency=local&p=.htm

 

The yen total for Zootopia on box office mojo is incorrect, according to this site:
 

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/alltime/

Edited June 22, 2016 by cannastop

[Cynosure]

Don't trust Mojo for foreign totals. They suck.

[NoobSaibot]

I'm really curious to know what the budget was for Sadako vs. Kayako. Even if it did scrimp together $9-10 million by the end of its run, that doesn't sound like much. Unless the production budget is really, really low.

 

I also love that Zootopia is still standing strong in Japan. Its multiplier, while not the absolute greatest of all time, is nothing to sneeze at.

Edited June 22, 2016 by NoobSaibot