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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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I'll post some estimates from yesterday later this evening, and will do the same throughout the rest of Obon, too.

 

I wouldn't dismiss The Jungle Book as a disappointment yet, although a breakout performance is very unlikely.  I highly doubt yesterday will be its biggest day, and the same is likely true just about everything else as well.  The film is probably finding it hard to appeal to a particular demographic.  I imagine it comes across as too dark for young children and that demo is very well covered this summer (Dory, Pokemon, Rudolph, Pets), and teens/adults/seniors have plenty of other options in theaters right now and even if they didn't, I'm not sure if it'd appeal to them in any significant way.  

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Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th)

 

Thursday Estimates (08/11)
¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW
¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14
¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW
¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21
¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW
¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6
¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6
¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27
¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6

Edited by Corpse
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9 hours ago, Corpse said:

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th)

 

Thursday Estimates (08/11)
¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW
¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14
¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW
¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21
¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW
¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6
¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6
¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27
¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6

How much did Ghostbusters make in its limited screenings?

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I'm guessing around $250,000 on its first day and $200,000 yesterday; still has a weekend of previews to go.  It's aiming for $1-1.5 million in overall previews, depending on how the weekend plays out.  That wouldn't seem like much, but theaters are only giving it one or two showings a day in its preview week, so it seems decent to me.    

 

    

 

 

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Do you mean the Weekend Forecast?  Probably not.  It's difficult to project holiday weeks, so posting the hourly updates throughout the day followed by daily estimates, I believe, is more appropriate for these interesting weekends.  

 

However, based on Saturday pre-sales: 

 

>Shin Godzilla might just be capable of preventing The Secret Life of Pets from debuting in first place over the weekend frame.  We'll see though, a lot can happen between now and Sunday over Obon Festival.  

>The Jungle Book will perform better over the weekend than its weekdays have suggested, which could indicate its appealing more toward an adult audience.  

>Finding Dory, One Piece, and Pokemon are likely to have weekend increases.

 

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Friday Estimates (08/12)


¥220,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($5.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 2
¥170,000,000 ($1.7 million), +38%, ¥2,870,000,000 ($27.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 15
¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), +33%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($48.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 28
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 2
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +73%, ¥3,545,000,000 ($33.9 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 22
¥70,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 2
¥60,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($5.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 7
¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +44%, ¥1,500,000,000 ($14.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 28
¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 7
¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 7

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21 minutes ago, Corpse said:

Do you mean the Weekend Forecast?  Probably not.  It's difficult to project holiday weeks, so posting the hourly updates throughout the day followed by daily estimates, I believe, is more appropriate for these interesting weekends.  

 

However, based on Saturday pre-sales: 

 

>Shin Godzilla might just be capable of preventing The Secret Life of Pets from debuting in first place over the weekend frame.  We'll see though, a lot can happen between now and Sunday over Obon Festival.  

>The Jungle Book will perform better over the weekend than its weekdays have suggested, which could indicate its appealing more toward an adult audience.  

>Finding Dory, One Piece, and Pokemon are likely to have weekend increases.

 

For X-Men, how is it doing, and will it run be short?

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Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admission Updates (Saturday)

 

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL

 

9,143 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW)
6,445 - Shin Godzilla (WK3)
5,937 - Finding Dory (WK5)
5,451 - The Jungle Book (NEW)
5,201 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4)
4,224 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2)
3,312 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)
2,953 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5)
2,766 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW)
2,592 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2)

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6 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

But Deadpool did well in Japan and its part of the x-men series. Any explanations for it doing well than others in the series?

Deadpool is a completely different than X-Men films despite the character being part of that "universe." R rated. Vulgar. Funny. 4th Wall breaking, etc. X-men films tend to be serious, sort of grim. A longstanding series that people have seen before. Deadpool was intentionally unlike the X-men films in every way. Plus coming at the beginning of the year was helpful.   

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Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admission Updates (Saturday)

 

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL

 

9,143 > 21,147 > 29,143 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW)
5,937 > 12,504 > 20,353 - Finding Dory (WK5)
6,445 > 14,247 > 19,566 - Shin Godzilla (WK3)
5,201 > 11,069 > 17,168 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4)
5,451 > 11,019 > 16,313 - The Jungle Book (NEW)
4,224 > x8,152 > 10,861 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2)
2,592 > x6,246 > x9,079 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2)
2,953 > x6,101 > x8,607  - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5)
2,766 > x4,166 > x8,044 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW)
3,312 > x5,893 > x7,815 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)

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Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th)

 

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday)

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL

 

9,143 > 21,147 > 29,143 > 44,339 > 55,161 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW)
5,937 > 12,504 > 20,353 > 26,440 > 38,881 - Finding Dory (WK5)
6,445 > 14,247 > 19,566 > 25,599 > 38,117 - Shin Godzilla (WK3)
5,201 > 11,069 > 17,168 > 23,248 > 32,417 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4)
5,451 > 11,019 > 16,313 > 23,499 > 30,986 - The Jungle Book (NEW)
4,224 > x8,152 > 10,861 > 14,518 > 16,821 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2)
2,592 > x6,246 > x9,079 > 13,041 > 16,495 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2)
2,953 > x6,101 > x8,607 > 11,472 > 13,152 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5)
2,766 > x4,166 > x8,044 > 10,597 > 12,657 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW)
3,312 > x5,893 > x7,815 > 10,243 > 11,299 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)

 

At the mid-day point, here's how everything is performing:

 

>The Secret Life of Pets is on its way to winning the day and assuming it achieves the typical Sunday increase that family/kids films receive, then it's likely to win the weekend, at least in terms of admissions; if it skews too young, causing its avg. ticket price to come in low, then Godzilla could still prevent it from debuting at #1.

 

>Shin Godzilla is nearly on par with last Saturday (-03%), and is in perfect shape to deliver yet another incredible weekend hold or potential third weekend increase.  I don't think it's going to claim a third-consecutive weekend atop the box office in terms of admissions, but it just might finish close enough to Pets' admissions to outgross it thanks to its high ticket prices. 

 

Both Pets and Godzilla are targeting weekends around ¥500 million based on their ticket sales at this stage.

 

>The Jungle Book is doing... alright, but it's certainly not performing up to its potential.  It does appear to be appealing more towards adults, so I expect business to pick up as the day progress.  Where it stands now, I expect it to come in around ¥350 million over the weekend.  

 

>These films are up over last Saturday: One Piece (+46%!); Finding Dory (+13%); Pokemon (+08%).  These were the most likely films to enjoy weekend increases and so far, so good.

 

>X-Men: Apocalypse... well, it's a big disappointment.  The original X-Men trilogy was somewhat successful, but the new films have suffered a significant decline.  

 

Early Weekend Projections:

 

¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 
¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - Shin Godzilla (WK3)
¥350-400 million ($3.5-4.0 million) - Finding Dory (WK5)
¥325-375 million ($3.2-3.6 million) - The Jungle Book (NEW)
¥300-350 million ($3.0-3.4 million) - One Piece Film Gold (WK4)
¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million) - Rudolph to Ippaitenna (WK2)
¥125-150 million ($1.2-1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW)
¥100-125 million ($1.0-1.2 million) - Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (WK2)
¥90-95 million ($900,000-950,000) - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5)

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