JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

And that concludes Obon Festival 2016!  

[Cookson]

52 minutes ago, Corpse said:

I'll look it up.  I thought it was already playing in IMAX...

 

I'll post Wednesday's estimates soon; the last day that'll see a noticeable boost from Obon Festival.  

 

It's original imax run ended on the 11th I thought.

[m3racer123]

JB's been within $0.1m of Dory every day of its run so far!

[Cookson]

Shin-Godzillas massive success just equaled an ANIME feature film for 2017!

[eXtacy]

Very curious to see how Kimi no Na wa (Your Name) does.

[Krissykins]

I know there's probably no chance of it, but I'm hoping, somehow, that Ghostbusters manages to do well in Japan this weekend.

[Olive]

Around $3M OW not including previews.

My guess

[Corpse]

Ghostbusters is doing okay.  It's going to debut in third place behind Pets and Godzilla (which are in a very tight race for #1), but beating either of them over the weekend was going to be a little difficult anyway.  

 

I'm thinking it'll come in closer to $2.5 million over the weekend, but if it has a strong Sunday, then $3 million is also possible as @Olive predicted.   It'll probably get to around $20 million with a debut of this level.  I was expecting a total closer to $30 million, but considering its performance elsewhere, I suppose ~$20 million would be good enough.  

 

And remember this tomorrow morning: Ghostbusters had four days worth of previews last week, and opened on Friday this weekend.  Only Saturday and Sunday count as the weekend in Japan, so those five extra days won't be included in its opening weekend.  However, Sony will likely report its opening weekend as including all five extra days, which will probably be enough to claim the #1 spot over the weekend - so don't be fooled if/when they report something like $5 million tomorrow.   

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, Corpse said:

Ghostbusters is doing okay.  It's going to debut in third place behind Pets and Godzilla (which are in a very tight race for #1), but beating either of them over the weekend was going to be a little difficult anyway.  

 

I'm thinking it'll come in closer to $2.5 million over the weekend, but if it has a strong Sunday, then $3 million is also possible as @Olive predicted.   It'll probably get to around $20 million with a debut of this level.  I was expecting a total closer to $30 million, but considering its performance elsewhere, I suppose ~$20 million would be good enough.  

 

And remember this tomorrow morning: Ghostbusters had four days worth of previews last week, and opened on Friday this weekend.  Only Saturday and Sunday count as the weekend in Japan, so those five extra days won't be included in its opening weekend.  However, Sony will likely report its opening weekend as including all five extra days, which will probably be enough to claim the #1 spot over the weekend - so don't be fooled if/when they report something like $5 million tomorrow.   

 

Thanks for all the information, really appreciated.

 

You really think it can do $20m from that opening? That would be awesome.

[Cookson]

You gonna have weekend estimates @Corpsefor us?! Shin-Godzilla looking strong again!

[Corpse]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Thanks for all the information, really appreciated.

 

You really think it can do $20m from that opening? That would be awesome.

 

The average multiplier in the market is 6/7, so $15 million should be the floor if it opens to $2.5 million (not accounting for what it earned prior to this weekend).  But, there's still some of summer remaining, so the multiplier should end up slightly above average, which would make $20 million doable.

 

I'll have estimates posted early tomorrow morning @Cookson.  Shin-Godzilla is indeed looking very strong once again, and I think it may edge out the weekend victory.

[James]

@Corpse, I am wondering, does Fantastic Beasts have ANY chance to win the year? Japan was the biggest OS market for 5 of the 8 HP movies. Also, if not, I see the top opening of the year is SW7 with 1.24b. Can FB beat that?   

[Corpse]

The last HP film to earn over 10 billion was Goblet of Fire, so I'd say it's nigh impossible for Fantastic Beasts to exceed the mark and then surpass Star Wars Episode VII.

 

Not to undermine how successful the Harry Potter franchise was in Japan, but the film series saw gradual declines of 15-20% with each film, until Deathly Hallows Part 2 ("just" the 5th biggest in the series) was released.  So there's clear evidence that Harry Potter's popularity, at least in cinema form, declined as the years went on.  

 

I'm, honestly, not confident in Fantastic Beasts box office prospects.  It isn't Harry Potter.  It may be set in the same universe, sure, and may perhaps end up having a familiar face or two, but that certainly doesn't mean fans of the Harry Potter franchise will show up for it (just look at how The Hobbit series compared to The Lord of the Rings in Japan...).  It's also only been 5 years since the last Harry Potter film, and to me, that isn't much time to build anticipation/nostalgia.  

 

I'd be very surprised if Fantastic Beasts is able to gross as much as the lowest-grossing Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows Part 1 with 6.86 billion.      

[titanic2187]

I,too, doubt the performance of Fantastic beast in japan, remember how far is the difference between the lord of the ring 3 and hobbit trilogy?
the last LOTR earned more than ￥10b yen in 2004 but Hobbit only got ￥1b+..........

[Corpse]

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD.

 

Weekend Estimates (08/20-21)
01 (02) ¥349,000,000 ($3.5 million), -18%, ¥4,350,000,000 ($42.5 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK4
02 (01) ¥331,000,000 ($3.3 million), -29%, ¥2,215,000,000 ($22.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK2
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($4.0 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) NEW
04 (03) ¥199,000,000 ($2.0 million), -34%, ¥1,360,000,000 ($13.4 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK2
05 (---) ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) NEW
06 (04) ¥171,000,000 ($1.7 million), -40%, ¥5,975,000,000 ($58.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK6
07 (05) ¥146,000,000 ($1.4 million), -47%, ¥4,425,000,000 ($42.7 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK5
08 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), Kizumonogatari Part 2: Passionate Blood (Toho Video Division) NEW
09 (07) ¥80,000,000 ($800,000), -38%, ¥980,000,000 ($9.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK3
10 (06) ¥67,000,000 ($670,000), -56%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.9 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) WK2

 

>Shin Godzilla appears to have reclaimed its throne atop the box office, and if the estimated sub-20% drop is accurate, it's an exceptional result coming out of the Obon Festival holidays.  It's effortlessly exceeded the ¥4 billion milestone (its expected finish upon opening), and is going to cruise past the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone now, too.  

 

Hideaki Anno (Evangelion) and Shinji Higuchi reboot has enjoyed incredible WOM thanks to its strong critic and audience reception (some are calling it a masterpiece), so I wouldn't rule out a total over ¥6 billion ($60 million) yet either.  And, if it does exceed ¥6 billion, its admissions could be high enough to make it the most-attended Godzilla film since 1966 - some 50 years ago!

 

>The Secret Life of Pets, appears, to have dropped to second place, but is continuing to perform very, very well.  It's not going to quite match the success that was Minions, but it's on course for a total around the ¥4 billion ($40 million) milestone - making it the highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market behind its studio predecessor.  

 

>Ghostbusters debut in Japan, but after following an impressive marketing campaign, comes in a rather distant third place.  The original was a massive success in Japan, the 5th highest-grossing film of all-time at the time of release, and inspired much material in the market, but this reboot was unable to capitalize on the franchise's success. 

 

If it weren't for expectations, a debut over ¥200 million would be considered very strong for an imported comedy with a female cast (most imported comedies fail to make the Top 10), and while it's still decent enough... it's also a bit disappointing.  I figure once its previews are taken into account, it'll be aiming for a total of ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), or slightly higher.  

   

>Yell for the Blue Sky, directed by popular shojo manga director Takahiro Miki, is off to a respectable start.  Legs for live-action shojo adaptations are generally strong, so this opening is more than enough to yield a total over ¥1 billion ($10 million), and gives it a slight chance at ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), as well.   

 

>Finding Dory is unable to hold strong post the Obon Festival holidays, and falls further behind Monsters University.  Summer Vacation will be coming to an end in two weeks, so it's losing any chance it may have had to make up ground.  I'm actually not confident that it'll reach ¥8 billion ($75 million) after this weekend, and it could find itself finishing below Zootopia (¥7.8 billion) as well.  

 

Japan will end up being its best international market, but it's finishing below expectations here for sure, which is worrying for a struggling Pixar Studios in the market if the sequel to their most-successful film is under-performing. 

 

>One Piece Film Gold experiences a sizable drop post the holidays, but given it enjoyed an increase last weekend, a big drop this week was to be expected.  It's edging closer to the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone, and should finish slightly above that mark with ¥5.1/5.2 billion ($51/52 million).

[James]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I,too, doubt the performance of Fantastic beast in japan, remember how far is the difference between the lord of the ring 3 and hobbit trilogy?
the last LOTR earned more than ￥10b yen in 2004 but Hobbit only got ￥1b+..........

I see your point. But at the same time you have Star Wars. I do think Potter has a strong enough fanbase to retain most of it's audience.

[peludo]

2 hours ago, James said:

I see your point. But at the same time you have Star Wars. I do think Potter has a strong enough fanbase to retain most of it's audience.

But Star Wars VII is still Star Wars. It had Solo, Leia, Luke. It is a direct sequel. FB shares the same universe but not characters (at least, not main characters). IMHO, I see quite more probable a Hobbit's scenario than a SW's. Maybe not plummeting in Japan as Hobbit did, but still quite below than HP series.

[Aristis]

17 minutes ago, peludo said:

But Star Wars VII is still Star Wars. It had Solo, Leia, Luke. It is a direct sequel. FB shares the same universe but not characters (at least, not main characters). IMHO, I see quite more probable a Hobbit's scenario than a SW's. Maybe not plummeting in Japan as Hobbit did, but still quite below than HP series.

Why did the Hobbit fall that much? Was it because ao the - very - changed tone/style the Hobbit movies had? That seems to be about the same in FB. But I don't know if anybody has an answer to this disastrous result... It makes me sad even now

[FlashMaster659]

Can someone post the attendance #'s for all the Godzilla movies?

[Corpse]

Godzilla Box-Office History

 

Admissions:
12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962) #12 All-Time
9.60 million - Godzilla (1954) #18 All-Time
8.34 million - Godzilla Raids Again (1955) #25 All-Time
7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964) #39 All-Time
5.41 million - Ghidorah, the Three-Headed Monster (1964) #83 All-Time
5.13 million - Invasion of Astro-Monster (1965) #89 All-Time
4.21 million - Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966)
4.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992)
4.00 million - Godzilla vs. Destoroyah (1995)
3.90 million - Godzilla (1998) *Hollywood*
3.80 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla II (1993)
3.40 million - Godzilla vs. Space Godzilla (1994)
3.20 million - The Return of Godzilla (1984)
2.70 million - Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991)
2.50 million - Destroy All Monsters (1968)
2.48 million - Son of Godzilla (1967)
2.40 million - Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001)
2.23 million - Godzilla (2014) *Hollywood*
2.00 million - Godzlla vs. Biollante (1989)
2.00 million - Godzilla 2000 (1999)
1.78 million - Godzilla vs Gigan (1972)
1.74 million - Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971)
1.70 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla III (2002)
1.48 million - All Monsters Attack (1969)
1.35 million - Godzilla vs Megaguirus (2000)
1.33 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974)
1.20 million - Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S (2003)
1.00 million - Godzilla: Final Wars (2004)
0.98 million - Godzilla vs Megalon (1973)
0.97 million - Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975)

 

Shin Godzilla should be just over the 3 million admissions mark after four weeks, and will be aiming to beat Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster's 4.21 million admissions to become the most-attended Godzilla film in 50 years.