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2016 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

 

¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) 
¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 [348] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho)
¥1.155 billion ($10.9 million) / 820,830 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei)
¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥930.0 million ($9.2 million) / 688,079 [301] - Your Name. (Toho)
¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 [511] - Finding Dory (Disney)
¥639.1 million ($5.7 million) / 544,641 [319] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho)
¥637.0 million ($5.6 million) / 544,816 [374] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho)
¥624.6 million ($6.1 million) / 412,302 [441] - Shin Godzilla (Toho)
¥615.9 million ($5.2 million) / 465,956 [325] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho)
¥570.2 million ($5.6 million) / 381,521 [963] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)
¥500 million ↨
¥496.0 million ($4.2 million) / 330,223 [841] - The Martian (Fox)
¥467.4 million ($4.6 million) / 370,046 [363] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) / 322,943 [625] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney)
¥445.8 million ($4.0 million) / 329,513 [471] - Zootopia (Disney)
¥427.3 million ($4.1 million) / 323,030 [312] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥425.4 million ($4.2 million) / 273,209 [979] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)
¥400.5 million ($3.7 million) / 337,108 [334] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) / 248,473 [724] - Deadpool (Fox)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) / 231,377 [717] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.)
¥362.2 million ($3.0 million) / 262,663 [591] - Spectre (Sony) 
¥354.1 million ($3.3 million) / 282,693 [321] - 64: Part 2 (Toho)
¥342.0 million ($3.1 million) / 264,270 [307] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku)
¥323.9 million ($3.1 million) / 289,971 [366] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho)
¥311.8 million ($2.6 million) / 261,179 [303] - Orange (Toho) 
¥302.1 million ($3.0 million) / 209,916 [676] - The Jungle Book (Disney)
¥300 million ↨
¥291.2 million ($2.4 million) / 217,273 [252] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei)
¥258.1 million ($2.5 million) / 188,028 [288] - Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥257.2 million ($2.4 million) / 203,703 [319] - 64: Part 1 (Toho)
¥244.4 million ($2.1 million) / 197,460 [336] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku) 
¥237.1 million ($2.3 million) / 160,260 [701] - Ghostbusters (Sony)
¥237.1 million ($2.1 million) / 191,696 [380] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney)
¥233.6 million ($2.1 million) / 192,506 [285] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.)
¥225.7 million ($2.0 million) / 159,964 [284] - I Am a Hero (Toho)
¥222.8 million ($1.8 million) / 181,551 [292] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) 
¥221.7 million ($2.0 million) / 169,500 [329] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.)
¥216.3 million ($2.0 million) / 193,226 [294] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho)
¥211.0 million ($2.1 million) / 174,438 [301] - Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei)
¥209.5 million ($1.8 million) / 165,220 [322] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho)
¥200 million ↨
¥198.5 million ($1.9 million) / 140,581 [352] - Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa)
¥196.6 million ($1.9 million) / 163,736 [281] - Yell to the Blue Sky (Toho)
¥194.9 million ($1.8 million) / 159,960 [308] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku)
¥190.7 million ($1.7 million) / 157,680 [160] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate)
¥187.3 million ($1.8 million) / 147,179 [346] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho)
¥184.7 million ($1.7 million) / 141,691 [290] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho)
¥179.5 million ($1.6 million) / 132,848 [366] - The Revenant (Fox)
¥179.0 million ($1.6 million) / 146,299 [298] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho)
¥177.1 million ($1.5 million) / 131,973 [108] - Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division)
¥173.0 million ($1.5 million) / 151,422 [320] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku)
¥160.7 million ($1.6 million) / 123,734 [496] - The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.)
¥155.3 million ($1.4 million) / 123,702 [307] - Kamen Rider 1 (Toei)
¥153.9 million ($1.3 million) / 114,709 [653] - The Peanuts Movie (Fox) 
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) / 108,907 [549] - X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
¥150.6 million ($1.4 million) / 128,730 [327] - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.)
¥145.4 million ($1.2 million) / 118,453 [329] - Persona Non Grata (Toho) 
¥144.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,058 [538] - Point Break (Warner Bros.)
¥141.9 million ($1.2 million) / 112,937 [348] - Bridge of Spies (Fox)
¥133.5 million ($1.2 million) / 116,015 [213] - Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei)
¥133.0 million ($1.2 million) / 92,396 [137] - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimenstions (Toei)
¥131.0 million ($1.3 million) / 96,000 [304] - Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku)
¥129.4 million ($1.1 million) / 99,913 [315] - Paddington (Kino Films)
¥127.2 million ($1.2 million) / 96,394 [256] - Creepy (Shochiku)
¥123.2 million ($1.2 million) / 92,757 [141] - Road to High & Low (Shochiku)
¥115.8 million ($1.0 million) / 84,008 [214] - The Big Short (Toho-Towa)
¥115.6 million ($1.0 million) / 87,958 [587] - The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa)
¥113.5 million ($1.0 million) / 86,195 [265] - Black Mass (Warner Bros.)
¥110.6 million ($0.9 million) / 82,182 [221] - The Inerasable (Shochiku)
¥108.8 million ($1.0 million) / 89,510 [244] - After the Storm (Gaga)
¥106.5 million ($0.9 million) / 105,911 [317] - Shuriken Ninninger vs. Ressha ToQger: Ninja in Wonderland (Toei)
¥105.3 million ($0.9 million) / 88,295 [309] - Kainan 1890 (Toei) 
¥103.7 million ($0.9 million) / 83,695 [316] - Les Saisons (Gaga)
¥102.1 million ($0.9 million) / 77,769 [96] - Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace)
¥101.1 million ($0.9 million) / 76,114 [150] - Born in the EXILE (Toho Video Division)
¥100.5 million ($0.9 million) / 81,868 [291] - Life's Promise (Toho)
¥100.2 million ($0.9 million) / 75,976 [308] - The Kodai Family (Toho)
¥100 million ↑

 

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

 

 

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2016 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

 

¥11.58 billion ($96.0 million) / 7.45 million [F] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) #19 All-Time
¥10 billion ↨
¥7.61 billion ($70.5 million) / 5.90 million [F] - Zootopia (Disney) #67 All-Time
¥6.43 billion ($62.3 million) / 5.27 million [44] - Finding Dory (Disney) #93 All-Time
¥6.31 billion ($57.9 million) / 4.93 million [F] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) #94 All-Time
¥5.53 billion ($46.5 million) / 5.01 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho)
¥5.30 billion ($51.7 million) / 3.63 million [31] - Shin Godzilla (Toho)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.78 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.58 million [37] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei)
¥4.61 billion ($39.6 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho)
¥4.12 billion ($36.7 million) / 3.63 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho)
¥3.51 billion ($31.4 million) / 3.11 million [F] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho)
¥3.51 billion ($30.9 million) / 2.42 million [F] - The Martian (Fox)
¥3.22 billion ($26.8 million) / 2.72 million [E] - Orange (Toho)
¥3.14 billion ($31.0 million) / 2.57 million [18] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.85 billion ($23.8 million) / 2.18 million [E] - Spectre (Sony)
¥2.63 billion ($25.3 million) / 1.77 million [E] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)
¥2.59 billion ($23.8 million) / 1.71 million [E] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney)
¥2.54 billion ($24.3 million) / 1.74 million [E] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)
¥2.16 billion ($20.6 million) / 1.72 million [E] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku)
¥2.13 billion ($19.7 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.40 million [E] - Deadpool (Fox
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.95 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.78 million [44] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho)
¥1.93 billion ($17.9 million) / 1.56 million [F] - 64: Part 1 (Toho)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.21 million [F] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.)
¥1.80 billion ($15.1 million) / 1.52 million [E] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku)
¥1.77 billion ($17.6 million) / 1.29 million [18] - The Jungle Book (Disney)
¥1.69 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.40 million [E] - 64: Part 2 (Toho)
¥1.69 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.35 million [E] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney)
¥1.67 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.27 million [44] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥1.62 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.20 million [F] - I Am a Hero (Toho)
¥1.52 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.21 million [E] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei)
¥1.50 billion ($13.8 million) / 1.26 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho)
¥1.45 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.10 million [E] - Too Young to Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥1.42 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.14 million [E] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.)
¥1.27 billion ($12.6 million) / 0.96 million [03] - Your Name. (Toho)
¥1.25 billion ($11.2 million) / 1.11 million [E] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku)
¥1.23 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku)
¥1.22 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.02 million [23] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho)
¥1.21 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.99 million [E] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.)
¥1.19 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho)
¥1.19 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.92 million [E] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho)
¥1.18 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho)
¥1.16 billion ($10.3 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate)
¥1.15 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Persona Non Grata (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑

 

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

 

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Hmm... if we're talking through November (box office year), I'd say these films have a chance:

 

>Your Lie in April (September 10th) - A shojo-manga live-action adaptation from a respected director and popular cast.  The most successful Shojo adaptations usually top out around 3 billion, but there have been a couple reach 4 billion.  However, only one has ever earned over 5 billion (Boys Over Flowers).  I highly doubt this one reaches 5 billion, but online signals appear strong so don't totally rule it out.

 

>Death Note: Light Up the New World (October 29th) - I'd give this one a 50/50 chance; the highest among the Fall candidates.  The recent well-received TV drama gave the franchise some renewed interest, and one film in the series grossed over 5 billion in the past.  I think as long as reviews are good, it could get there.

 

>Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (November 23rd) - This one boils down to the Harry Potter faithful.  There's a lot of examples of spin-offs, or loose pre-quels/sequls disappointing in Japan, so I'm weary of its chances.  But as I mentioned, if the Harry Potter fans come out, it has a decent chance at 5 billion.

 

I think that's it, but if we look at December:

 

>Takashi Yamazaki's new film, A Man Called Pirate, opens on December 10th.  The film is a World War II story about a man who lost everything in the war, who would later find success in the oil industry.  The film reunites him with actor Junichi Okada, and together they delivered the 2013 blockbuster hit The Eternal Zero, which grossed 8.74 billion.  I doubt it's as successful as their previous effort, but if reviews are strong, I wouldn't rule out potential at 5 billion.

 

>Rogue One opens on December 16th and has a fair shot, I suppose.  I have some doubts since it's not a proper Star Wars film, and has no recognizable names attached to it, but the Star Wars brand is strong enough that 5 billion can be attained.  

 

>There's also Yo-Kai Watch 3, the first live-action/animated hybrid film in the series, opening on December 17th.  The Yo-Kai Watch series has definitely peaked, but the live-action angle might be enough to keep the franchise above the 5 billion milestone.

Edited by Corpse
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I actually forgot one, and it has a pretty good chance: Resident Evil: The Final Chapter.  

 

Japan will be the first, and only, country getting it in 2016.  It opens on December 23rd, and the last two films each earned over 4 billion.  I figure it's still a popular series, and the "final" angle will certainly help sell it.  It's no lock at earning over 5 billion, but it's certainly possible. 

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Yes, definitely.  There was a report back in July, I believe, that had the year up a comfortably margin over 2015.  I was very busy in July and never got around to posting it, but I'll try to look it up again.  And the second half of the year has been performing very well, too.

 

2016 will make for the fourth-consecutive year that yearly admissions are up.

 

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1 minute ago, Corpse said:

Yes, definitely.  There was a report back in July, I believe, that had the year up a comfortably margin over 2015.  I was very busy in July and never got around to posting it, but I'll try to look it up again.  And the second half of the year has been performing very well, too.

 

2016 will make for the fourth-consecutive year that yearly admissions are up.

 

Fourth consecutive year? That's better than USA+Canada, where ticket sales fell from 2013 to 2014.

Edited by cannastop
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@Corpse I discovered on the IMDB release info for movies going to be release in Japan, I found out that Spider-Man Homecoming is going to be released on the August 11 holiday, and as you mentioned he is a popular American superhero in Japan. I known it is years away, but do you think it will gross okay next year in Japan?

Edited by chrisman0606
Grammar.
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Just now, chrisman0606 said:

@Corpse I discovered on the IMDB release info for movies going to be release in Japan, I found out that Spider-Man Homecoming is going to be released on the August 11 holiday, and as you mentioned he is a popular American superhero in Japan. I known it is years away, but do you think it will gross okay next year in Japan?

I personally think that ¥4.5 billion yen is the higher end of expectations, based on the past popularity of Spider-Man in Japan. Superheroes in general aren't that big, though.

 

But I'm not Corpse.

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21 hours ago, chrisman0606 said:

@Corpse I discovered on the IMDB release info for movies going to be release in Japan, I found out that Spider-Man Homecoming is going to be released on the August 11 holiday, and as you mentioned he is a popular American superhero in Japan. I known it is years away, but do you think it will gross okay next year in Japan?

 

Spider-Man is the only superhero whom's films will always do well in Japan.  He's the most well-known superhero in the market, by a huge margin, who also has domestic roots in the market with a live-action tv show dating back to the 1970s. 

 

I don't think any future release will manage to match the success of the original Spider-Man trilogy, but solid/strong box office returns should always be guaranteed for the character.  The Andrew Garfield films both exceeded 3 billion ($39 and 31 million, respectively), and they did so despite attempting to follow up on the blockbuster original trilogy, and by suffering from a lukewarm reception upon release.  As long as Spider-Man: Homecoming is good, I'd say 3 billion ($30 million) is the floor, and I wouldn't be surprised by a 4/5 billion ($40/50 million) result. 

 

Note: USD totals are based on today's exchange rate.

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Yep, Summer Vacation is over and School is back in session.  Shin Godzilla is firmly appealing to an adult audience, so it's remained unfazed by the time-of-year change and will continue to have strong weekdays.

 

Your Name. is definitely a beast; it's been making a killing since Day 1.  I figured it'd have a "slower" Thursday since Summer Vacation is over but that certainly wasn't the case, and is another strong indicator that it's appealing to a very broad audience.  It's also receiving a very, very rare "expansion" (picking up the biggest screens at some locations that it wasn't given last weekend) this weekend.

Edited by Corpse
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