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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Upcoming Release Schedule (Major and Notable Releases Only)
Release Date - [Current Theater Count] - Film Title (Distributor)

 

Theater Count Key:
N/A (No Listed Locations)
100 > Limited Release 
100 < Wide Release
200 < Moderate Release
300 < Significant Release
350 < Optimal Release (rare)

 

September
09/01, [244] - Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa)
09/03, [118] - Dias Police: Dirty Yellow Boys (Toei)
09/09, [303] - Gods of Egypt (Gaga)
09/10, [294] - Your Lie in April (Toho)
09/10, [275] - Samurai Hustle Returns! (Shochiku)
09/10, [154] - Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)
09/17, [324] - Anger (Toho)
09/17, [125] - The Red Turtle (Toho)
09/17, [121] - A Silent Voice (Shochiku)
09/17, [N/A] - The BFG (Disney)
09/19 - Respect for the Elderly Day (National Holiday)
09/22 - Autumn Equinox Day (National Holiday)
09/22, [314] - Sanada Ten Braves (Shochiku/Nikkatsu)
09/22, [181] - Ushijima the Loan Shark - Part 3 (SPD)
09/22, [x81] - The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Kadokawa)
09/24, [164] - Sully (Warner Bros.)
09/24, [x84] - Mechanic: Resurrection (Showgate)

 

October
10/01, [300] - The Angry Birds Movie (Sony)
10/01, [247] - Scoop! (Toho)
10/01, [x87] - Cutie Honey: Tears (Toei)
10/07, [323] - Jason Bourne (Toho-Towa)
10/08, [313] - High & Low: The Red Rain (Shochiku)
10/08, [278] - Good Morning Show (Toho)
10/08, [225] - Night's Tightrope (Toei)
10/10 - Health-Sports Day (National Holiday)
10/14, [151] - Gantz:O (Toho Video Division)
10/14, [x86] - The Long Excuse (Asmik Ace)
10/15, [N/A] - Somebody (Toho)
10/21, [N/A] - Star Trek Beyond (Toho-Towa)
10/22, [181] - Ushijima the Loan Shark - The Final (SPD)
10/22, [x80] - Super Kabuki Theater: One Piece (Shochiku)
10/22, [N/A] - Man of the Gold Medal (Showgate)
10/22, [N/A] - Birthday Card (Toei)
10/28, [N/A] - Inferno (Sony)
10/29, [329] - Death Note: Light Up the New World (Warner Bros.)
10/29, [x89] - Her Love Boils Bathwater (Clockworks)
10/29, [N/A] - Precure All Stars: Cure Miracle and Mofurun's Magic Lesson! (Toei)

 

*Listed Theater Counts may be subject to change but are typically final.

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169395_11.jpg
(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会

 

Weekend Forecast (09/03-04)
01 (01) ¥819,000,000 ($8.0 million), -12%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($33.4 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥324,000,000 ($3.1 million), -10%, ¥5,950,000,000 ($58.0 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK6
03 (03) ¥176,000,000 ($1.7 million), -41%, ¥3,600,000,000 ($35.4 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK4
04 (04) ¥144,000,000 ($1.4 million), -33%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.8 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) WK2
05 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa) NEW
06 (05) ¥103,000,000 ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥1,040,000,000 ($10.1 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK3
07 (06) ¥91,000,000 ($880,000), -38%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.3 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK3
08 (09) ¥82,000,000 ($790,000), -32%, ¥4,950,000,000 ($48.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK7
09 (08) ¥79,000,000 ($765,000), -40%, ¥1,975,000,000 ($19.4 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK4
10 (07) ¥74,000,000 ($720,000), -44%, ¥6,600,000,000 ($63.9 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK8

 

>Director Makoto Shinkai's Your Name. continued its dominance at the box office throughout the week, earning more over its first set of weekdays than its actual opening weekend.  Its Saturday pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales are huge once again, and it's poised to deliver a massive second weekend; easily the biggest of the year and one of the biggest second weekends of all-time. .  And, its two-week total will also be among the highest of all-time, too.  

 

The film's soundtrack debut at #1 on the charts (74,000 first week), as did the paperback version of the film... all of this is a strong indication that the film is becoming, or has already become, a phenomenon in Japan.  I highly doubt anything in September will dethrone it, and fully expect it to remain at #1 for the entire month and well into October as well, so we could be looking at 8 weeks, or more, at #1.  I've been wanting to say this since last Saturday, but I really think we have a ¥10 billion+ ($100 million) contender here.

 

>Shin-Godzilla is going to have another incredible hold, and I might be projecting too harsh of a drop despite going with a 10% drop.  This beast remains unfazed by anything.  Its biggest drop-to-date has only been 21%, for reference.  At this point, it's clear now that it's going to surpass Finding Dory (and soon) and end up comfortably above ¥7 billion ($70 billion), which will give it a multiplier of over 11, possibly even 12.  It might even make a run at ¥8 billion ($80 million); that'd be a multiplier of nearly 13.

 

>Now You See Me 2 will be the top debut this weekend, but due to the strength of the August holdovers, the best it'll manage is simply cracking the Top 5.

 

>The remaining holdovers will likely experience some sizable drops now that summer is over and school is back in session, especially those that had been skewing younger (such as The Secret Life of Pets).  The more adult-driven films (such as Black Widow Business) will survive the change much better.

Edited by Corpse
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It's hard to project a finish while it's still performing so well.  It's going to exceed 7 billion, though, which will earn it at least 4.8 million admissions.  It could make a run at 7.5-8 billion+, though, so it could even reach 5.2-5.5 million admissions.   

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As of noon, Your Name. is up ~9% compared to last Saturday...  If it actually manages to pull off a second weekend increase, after coming off a near ¥1 billion opening weekend, it'd have to be considered the most-impressive second weekend of all-time.  Just off the top of my head, here's a few accomplishments it could achieve this weekend:

 

>Seventh or eighth biggest second weekend ever.
>Second or third biggest second weekend for an animated film, behind only Miyazaki's Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away (could beat the latter) and way ahead of every Disney/Pixar film.
>Only film to ever increase in its second weekend after debuting above ¥800 million and ¥900 million.

 

Its second weekend would also claim the biggest weekend of any film in September, opening or not.  Also, its two-week total will likely be over ¥3.5 billion if it manages to increase this weekend.  If that happens, it'll be outpacing every animated film after two-weeks other than, again, Miyazaki's Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away.

 

Note: It's dong this without any holiday support, whatsoever, unlike the majority of other uber-blockbusters.

 

If it's not clear enough, Japanese audiences are fully embracing Makoto Shinkai as Hayao Miyazaki's successor.

Edited by Corpse
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Yeah, he's been given that title for some years now, and he's delivering in every way imaginable at the box office now.

 

Also, if the new Death Note doesn't stop Your Name. on October 29th, it could easily remain at #1 until sometime in November.

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3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

@Corpse


How long has Makoto Shinkai been called a Miyazaki successor? And how did his other movies do at the box office?

 

I don't know the exact year or anything, but he's been called that for quite some time (before 2010).

 

Your Name. is his first wide release.  None of his other films, being limited releases, grossed anything even close to $10 million, let alone debut in the Top 10!

Edited by Corpse
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MAL (My anime list) - Top Rated Movies

 

8.93 - Spirited Away

8.85 - Wolf Children

8.81 - Princess Monoke

8.79 - Your Name

8.74 - Howls Moving Castle

8.60 - Boy and the Beast

8.54 - Grave of Fireflies

 

Its up there with the best according to the biggest anime site. The score has been steadily rising as well.

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That's awesome, though perhaps more importantly...

 

Your Name. became the fastest film ever to exceed 10,000 reviews on Japan's largest movie review service - Filmarks.  It reached 10,000 on Friday, its eighth day in release, and has an avg. score of 4.3/5.  By comparison, its current average score is higher than Zootopia's (4.2) and Shin Godzilla's (4.2), the other two well-received WOM hits from the past year. 

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Biggest Second Weekends [2001-]

 

¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), -02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.39 billion ($11.3 million), -31%, ¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, ¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) 
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004) 
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, ¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007) 
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, ¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011) 
¥1.10 billion ($10.6 million), +18%, ¥3.70 billion ($36.0 million) - Your Name. (2016) *Projection*
¥1.09 billion ($9.3 million), -50%, ¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, ¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005) 
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, ¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009) 
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, ¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, ¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.24 billion ($34.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥941 million ($7.6 million), +11%, ¥4.36 billion ($35.0 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥936 million ($7.9 million), -25%, ¥3.18 billion ($26.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥872 million ($8.6 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) - Frozen (2014) 
¥860 million ($8.0 million), -04%, ¥2.49 billion ($23.1 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥820 million ($7.1 million), -19%, ¥2.98 billion ($25.8 million) - Hero (Toho) 2007
¥814 million ($7.3 million), -62%, ¥4.07 billion ($36.1 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005) 
¥811 million ($8.3 million), -16%, ¥2.85 billion ($29.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013) 
¥806 million ($7.6 million), -22%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.5 million) - Ponyo (2008) 
¥756 million ($7.1 million), -25%, ¥2.62 billion ($25.0 million) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥728 million ($8.2 million), -26%, ¥2.37 billion ($27.3 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010) 
¥726 million ($6.0 million), -42%, ¥3.84 billion ($31.8 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥708 million ($6.3 million), -27%, ¥2.35 billion ($21.8 million) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006) 
¥705 million ($6.1 million), -63%, ¥3.75 billion ($32.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) 
¥704 million ($8.6 million), -48%, ¥2.86 billion ($34.7 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012) 
¥704 million ($7.2 million), -17%, ¥2.49 billion ($25.4 million) - Monsters University (2013)
¥701 million ($6.9 million), -09%, ¥3.27 billion ($32.1 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)

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It might be time to call ¥10 billion ($100 million) a lock.

 
Your Name. has increased its chances of exceed ¥10 billion ($100 million) substantially, and I believe we could be in store for a truly historic performance; possibly a run at ¥15 billion+ ($150 million). 

That's a long ways off, but it'll likely remain in 1st place at the box office until the last weekend of October, or possibly even into November considering its achieved phenomenon status by achieving top rankings across every medium (box office; single sales; album sales; book sales).
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Power Rangers is an interesting one.  I only have a few minutes right now, so I can't really get into it at the moment.  I'll reply properly to your question tomorrow though!

 

And quickly, following up on Your Name.:  As of 2PM today, it's up over 20% compared to last Sunday (selling through 60% of its available admissions so far today).  This guarantees a second weekend increase, and such an increase that'll allow it to exceed ¥1 billion over the weekend, too.  ¥1.1 billion+ does look quite doable.

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169395_12.jpg
(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会

 

Weekend Estimates (09/03-04)
01 (01) ¥1,150,000,000 ($11.0 million), +24%, ¥3,775,000,000 ($36.8 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥317,000,000 ($3.1 million), -17%, ¥5,950,000,000 ($57.9 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK6
03 (03) ¥197,000,000 ($1.9 million), -33%, ¥3,625,000,000 ($35.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK4
04 (04) ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), -26%, ¥615,000,000 ($6.0 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) WK2
05 (06) ¥117,000,000 ($1.1 million), -21%, ¥875,000,000 ($8.5 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK3
06 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa) NEW
07 (05) ¥95,000,000 ($920,000), -39%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($10.0 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK3
08 (08) ¥85,000,000 ($820,000), -35%, ¥1,980,000,000 ($19.5 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK4
09 (09) ¥83,000,000 ($800,000), -31%, ¥4,950,000,000 ($48.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK7
10 (07) ¥73,000,000 ($710,000), -45%, ¥6,600,000,000 ($63.9 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK8

 

>Director Makoto Shinkai's 'Your Name.' continues to defy belief by experiencing a second weekend increase, but not just any increase, but a likely 20%+ increase.  Its opening weekend was already insane enough, arguably the most-impressive on record, but its second weekend in on an entirely different level and without a doubt the most-impressive second frame of all-time.  

 

According to estimates, its second weekend will be the 6th biggest of all time overall, and the 2nd biggest for an animation film (behind only Howl's Moving Castle).  It's also the biggest second weekend since 2007, and a small increase over estimates could make it the biggest second weekend since 2004.  And a quick example of how significant this second weekend is in terms of modern-day box office: Its second weekend admissions will be greater than Star Wars: The Force Awaken's opening weekend, and nearly on par with its opening weekend in gross.      

 

Its two-week total also comes in near an all-time high as well for an animated film (and maybe top 10 overall, despite no holiday support).  It's outpacing every animated film ever after two weeks besides Miyazaki's Howl's Moving Castle and Spirited Away (and its second weekend just bested the latter).  Everyone has been waiting to see who would be the "next Miyazaki" at the box office, if anyone could ever fill that role at all, and audiences and critics alike have spoken in unity that Makoto Shinkai is that guy. 

 

Shinkai's dreamesque love story has become a very likely ¥10 billion+ ($100 million+) earner following the result of this weekend, and don't be too surprised if it makes a run at well over the uber-blockbuster mark and climbs toward ¥15 billion ($150 million), or more, as it's likely to remain atop the box office for a couple months.

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