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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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On 04/09/2016 at 10:58 PM, Corpse said:

Also, thanks to Your Name.'s unprecedented performance, 2016 is guaranteed to increase over 2015 in yearly admissions.  2016 was already likely to increase over 2015 (up double digits back in July), but this locks it up for sure.

 

2016 will make the 5th-consecutive year that yearly admissions are up in Japan, besting the previous longest streak from 1955-1958.  Japan's box office isn't so stagnant anymore.  And if 2016 is able to increase "just" 5% over 2015's yearly admissions, it'll end up with the most admissions since 1974, too.  

 

Additionally... 2015 was the second biggest year in terms of revenue (behind just 2010), and 2016 is looking very likely of beating 2015 (and 2010) there as well.

 

 

I'm glad to see that Japan is doing very well once again, and Your Name. seems to have a fascinating plot so I understand this success.  I don't think Japan will be able to go on like that because the demographic crisis is increasingly harmful and is worsening, but it's still good to see. :)

 

I expect a lot from Japan about Moana, huge potential :lol:

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17 hours ago, cannastop said:

That's going to be in early March, just like Frozen.

 

I think that ¥10B is the upper limit on what it will do.

 

You can't rule out Moana becoming a phenomenon there.

2 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

No,it's a pessimistic prediction.

 

That's realistic, SS doesn't fit this market..

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On 03/09/2016 at 11:51 AM, eXtacy said:

MAL (My anime list) - Top Rated Movies

 

8.93 - Spirited Away

8.85 - Wolf Children

8.81 - Princess Monoke

8.79 - Your Name

8.74 - Howls Moving Castle

8.60 - Boy and the Beast

8.54 - Grave of Fireflies

 

Its up there with the best according to the biggest anime site. The score has been steadily rising as well.

 

9.18 - Your Name :o

8.93 - Spirited Away

8.85 - Wolf Children

8.81 - Princess Monoke

8.74 - Howls Moving Castle

8.60 - Boy and the Beast

8.54 - Grave of Fireflies

 

The score has gone up so much! Incredible. Doubt it remains that high, Wolf Children was above Spirited Away a year ago, but damn thats exceptional

Edited by eXtacy
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Looks like Shin Godzilla had a great hold this Friday compared to last Friday. Hopefully that translates into another great weekend hold. However it also looks like they took some screens away from it for whatever reason. No worries, I'm sure it'll have another destructive weekend!

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3 hours ago, eXtacy said:

 

9.18 - Your Name :o

8.93 - Spirited Away

8.85 - Wolf Children

8.81 - Princess Monoke

8.74 - Howls Moving Castle

8.60 - Boy and the Beast

8.54 - Grave of Fireflies

 

The score has gone up so much! Incredible. Doubt it remains that high, Wolf Children was above Spirited Away a year ago, but damn thats exceptional

 

Now at 9.23., that's crazy. Miyazaki's movies generally managed to have huge acclaim both in the West and in Japan so this just further cements Shintai's status as his successor.

 

Now if this could pull something like $10 million at the US box office (unlikely I know)

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there were kimi no na wa posters all over Akihabara stores this week, plus I saw some tv ads during prime time, i really wanna see it but my japanese is just not good enough for me to understand a whole movie without subtitles

Edited by JohnnY
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On 9/7/2016 at 9:40 AM, cannastop said:

So Zootopia got to ¥7.6B with a multiplier of over 17 and Finding Dory is going to finish under ¥7B with a multiplier under 10. I don't think many people would have predicted that back in January.

 

That doesn't surprise me, actually, as previously three out of the last four (and now four out of the last five) WDAS movies have achieved 15+ multipliers in Japan, which I pointed out on several occasions--probably later than January, to be honest, but I was basing this on an existing trend in any case.  And it doesn't surprise me that a sequel would decline in Japan, since it's not an uncommon occurrence there.  Additionally, a 10 multiplier is right in Pixar's usual range, which isn't bad at all for a sequel (excellent for any movie, really, in the grand scheme of things).  That said, I am surprised that Finding Dory didn't open bigger--I had expected a substantially larger opening weekend and a smaller multiplier.  I realize that many were using Monsters University as a baseline, but I think that for whatever reasons that movie over-performed.

 

By the way, any example of a 15+ multiplier is astounding, so WDAS seeming to make it routine lately is even far more astounding.  Even without Frozen and its record 33 multiplier, they'd have quite the amazing streak going.  I almost feel like predicting that it will happen yet again with Moana even this far ahead! :D  Either the Japanese people keep underestimating how much they're going to like WDAS movies, or the movies benefit from massive amounts of repeat viewership, or maybe a bit of both. 

Edited by Melvin Frohike
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15 minutes ago, Melvin Frohike said:

 

That doesn't surprise me, actually, as previously three out of the last four (and now four out of the last five) WDAS movies have achieved 15+ multipliers in Japan, which I pointed out on several occasions--probably later than January, to be honest, but I was basing this on an existing trend in any case. 

Thanks for the insight.


Are you skipping over Winnie the Pooh's multiplier in Japan?

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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Are you skipping over Winnie the Pooh's multiplier in Japan?

 

Yes, for full disclosure, I always ignore Winnie the Pooh when discussing the box office because that was a low-budget, low-profile project done at the express request of the Consumer Products division.  DisneyToon had been slated to take it on, per their usual role, but WDAS, who were looking for work for their remaining 2D animators while decisions were being made on the future of hand-drawn feature animation at Disney, insisted on doing it instead.  They took care in making the movie regardless, and in the big picture and in terms of history I consider it one of their "official" releases, but it's still a movie aimed squarely at young children (for the purpose of selling toys), not one of the largely self-determined, big "tent pole" movies aimed at the general audience (all ages) that WDAS normally make.  For these reasons, personally I don't see this movie as relevant to box office discussion, so I consistently leave it out entirely, although of course we're all free to decide that for ourselves.

 

I guess it's sort of like how nobody points out that Disney had a massive animated flop in Strange Magic last year.  It had been in production for a long time (by Lucasfilm Animation and ILM), and it looks as though it must have cost a pretty penny to make, but is it really relevant to discussions of Disney's box office track record?  It was a personal George Lucas thing and came with the deal for the Star Wars franchise--Disney promised that they would release it, and then they unceremoniously dumped it and wrote it off in January.  Should any of us care?  Does it tarnish Disney's track record for that year?  Not really, in my view--it's just not relevant.  Similarly, in my view Winnie the Pooh just isn't relevant in discussing WDAS' box office track record--in this case, the reason is that it's a different kind of movie in terms of audience, budget, and expectations.

 

By the way, although a lot of people either forget or ignore The Rescuers Down Under from the Disney Renaissance era, I don't because it is one of their major releases.  Maybe I wouldn't mention it a lot because success is generally more interesting and memorable, but in terms of box office track record the fact that it flopped was definitely a relevant and even interesting event.  Similarly, Wreck-It Ralph's relative lack of OS success is relevant to the current era, in my view.  And Moana, too, is the kind of movie that WDAS normally make (obviously), so whatever it does will count, whether positive or negative.  I sure hope that one way or another it will continue WDAS' ridiculous track record of 15+ multipliers in Japan, but if it doesn't then oh well, and I would count this.

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On 9/6/2016 at 8:40 PM, cannastop said:

That's going to be in early March, just like Frozen.

 

If I'm not mistaken (I don't claim to be an expert on the Japan box office), that would trade off some of the benefit of Golden Week for more time with the kiddies (with school being out) and away from the competition.  I'm having trouble figuring out which period would be more advantageous overall for foreign animated features.  It seems to be a wash, and Frozen doesn't count as an example because it took full advantage of everything in the vicinity. :lol:

 

 

Quote

I think that ¥10B is the upper limit on what it will do.

 

That's usually a safe bet, but I think I'll wait till I've seen Moana myself to decide.  I can do this in this thread, you see, because the Japanese themselves prefer to wait for WOM before going to see a movie, and often they even wait till a movie has been released in the rest of the world before deciding how to handle its release in Japan, so really I'm just keeping things thematically consistent here. ;)

 

 

On 9/7/2016 at 1:52 PM, Fullbuster said:

You can't rule out Moana becoming a phenomenon there.

 

Right, but is there any compelling reason yet to believe that it will become one in Japan?  I love the concept, but so far I'm not sold on the execution.  It's early and I fully realize how bad Disney's advertising can be (especially of WDAS' movies), so I'm not trying to prejudge the movie, but I'm still stuck in a wait-and-see mode with it.  In general, setting one's expectations too high can be just as unfair to a movie as anything else can be.

Edited by Melvin Frohike
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