JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Stewart]

I asked about TLK in Japan and this is what Corpse said: (I think @VenomXXR was interested in per-market TLK grosses, could be wrong)

 

I don't expect The Lion King to be very big, but it's sort of an unknown right now. Do we know how they're handling the songs? Are the animals singing them? Are they even included? If they're a focal point of the marketing, and the animals are indeed singing them, then that should help. I think it'll do well, better than The Jungle Book or Dumbo, but I don't see it being huge in the market.

The original was pretty successful, ranking 5th for the year in 1994, but it only ranks 88th among all animated films in the market. Among the 90s Disney renaissance films, Aladdin was the biggest in Japan.

[Stewart]

Also, via Corpse, is the weekend forecast:

 

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Forecast (03/30-31)
01 (01) ¥279,000,000 ($2.5 million), -10%, ¥3,820,000,000 ($34.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
03 (03) ¥144,000,000 ($1.3 million), -18%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($26.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK6
04 (02) ¥109,000,000 ($980,000), -40%, ¥1,520,000,000 ($13.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK3
05 (04) ¥101,000,000 ($910,000), -42%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.0 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (05) ¥x88,000,000 ($795,000), -15%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.5 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) WK3
07 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($675,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW
08 (07) ¥x71,000,000 ($640,000), -20%, ¥512,591,700 ($4.6 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) WK3
09 (06) ¥x69,000,000 ($620,000), -28%, ¥1,590,000,000 ($14.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK5
10 (09) ¥x34,000,000 ($305,000), -37%, ¥395,000,000 ($3.6 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3

The last weekend of March can be a bit tricky to predict since it's near the end of Spring Break.

Generally, kids/family films hold very well, and can sometimes experiences weekend increases. I'm going to bet against any increases this year, however, since Monday is the 1st of the month (this can sometimes slightly deflate the weekend) and some will be willing to wait until then to get discounted ticket prices. Every other type of film mostly behaves like they would on any ordinary weekend, but one or two can surprise with an excellent hold. 

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration is looking to achieve its fifth-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and it's likely to earn it. If any film sees an increase this weekend, then it should be the thirty-ninth entry in this franchise. 

>Dumbo opens this weekend, a pretty rare day-and-date release with the rest of the world, but it's probably going to have to settle for a second place debut. It delivered a mediocre start on Friday, and its Saturday pre-sales aren't encouraging. 2016's The Jungle Book is a great comparison here, and Dumbo's pre-sales are 20% below it. The Jungle Book opened with ¥302 million, so a debut around ¥250 million for Dumbo seems likely.

>And finally, the tenth place position this weekend is open for several films. There is even a chance that Bohemian Rhapsody sneaks back in in its twenty-first weekend of release.

[KP1025]

32 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I asked about TLK in Japan and this is what Corpse said: (I think @VenomXXR was interested in per-market TLK grosses, could be wrong)

 

I don't expect The Lion King to be very big, but it's sort of an unknown right now. Do we know how they're handling the songs? Are the animals singing them? Are they even included? If they're a focal point of the marketing, and the animals are indeed singing them, then that should help. I think it'll do well, better than The Jungle Book or Dumbo, but I don't see it being huge in the market.

The original was pretty successful, ranking 5th for the year in 1994, but it only ranks 88th among all animated films in the market. Among the 90s Disney renaissance films, Aladdin was the biggest in Japan.

 

I'm also on the conservative side when it comes to The Lion King in Japan, but I'm not sure about using the performance of the original animated film to gauge potential success. Beauty and the Beast (1991) grossed under ¥4 billion, yet the remake grossed ¥12.4 billion. Also, the pop culture impact of The Lion King is far greater than Dumbo or The Jungle Book. The Broadway adaptation has been a huge hit in Japan and has been running for over 20 years in a permanent location. 

Edited March 30, 2019 by KP1025

[Cynosure]

Beauty and the Beast had Emma Watson though, who is huge in Japan thanks to the Harry Potter franchise. The Lion King will have no such thing. 

[Legion Again]

So Endgame will have its OD followed by 10 straight days of no school+no work? Fun times.     

 

20M USD looks pretty unlikely for CM off of that weekend forecast, right?

Edited March 30, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So Endgame will have its OD followed by 10 straight days of no school+no work? Fun times.     

 

20M USD looks pretty unlikely for CM off of that weekend forecast, right?

 

Did IW have that? 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Did IW have that? 

No, the change of Emperors+calendar configuration this year seem to be granting an additional 3-4 holiday days that IW didn’t have. Assuming I interpreted the breakdown at the top of this page correctly.

[UserHN]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

So Endgame will have its OD followed by 10 straight days of no school+no work? Fun times.     

 

20M USD looks pretty unlikely for CM off of that weekend forecast, right?

CM looks to be dropping like a rock in Japan.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

No, the change of Emperors+calendar configuration this year seem to be granting an additional 3-4 holiday days that IW didn’t have. Assuming I interpreted the breakdown at the top of this page correctly.

Interesting. Japan is such a tricky market. I feel like Endgame could hit $40 million though.

[lorddemaxus]

15 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

I feel like Endgame could hit $40 million though.

Isn't Pikachu releasing a week after? Wb seems to be trying to sell it as an event film.

[UserHN]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Isn't Pikachu releasing a week after? Wb seems to be trying to sell it as an event film.

According to someone on this thread who is knowledgeable about Japanese preferences, Detective Pikachu isn't that much anticipated in Japan. Generally, the Japanese don't look kindly to Western live-action remakes of Japanese animes and mangas. The recent 2, GitS and Alita both flopped so hard in Japan.

Edited March 30, 2019 by UserHN

[Giesi]

17 hours ago, Cynosure said:

Beauty and the Beast had Emma Watson though, who is huge in Japan thanks to the Harry Potter franchise. The Lion King will have no such thing. 

 

On a serious note, I‘m so excited for LK‘s boxoffice performance in the more traditional countries like Japan, UK and Germany.

[druv10]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Isn't Pikachu releasing a week after? Wb seems to be trying to sell it as an event film.

In Japan, movies can coexist fine so DP shouldn't effect EG too much. With as many holidays they have coming, 40M total is a good bench mark for EG.

[Cynosure]

26 minutes ago, Giesi said:

 

On a serious note, I‘m so excited for LK‘s boxoffice performance in the more traditional countries like Japan, UK and Germany.

I know you're joking but I don't even think they still know her name there. She had some momentum like 15 years ago but her last album debuted at a measly #43 on the Oricon charts.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Cynosure

[XXR vs XXR]

I think TLK will perform about the same in the US as it does in the UK and Australia (relative to size.)

Germany, France, Japan, Russia, China, etc etc are some of the ones I'm very curious about. 

[Tower]

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Estimates (03/30-31)
01 (01) ¥316,000,000 ($2.9 million), +02%, ¥3,855,000,000 ($34.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
02 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
03 (03) ¥167,000,000 ($1.5 million), -04%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($26.4 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK6
04 (02) ¥119,000,000 ($1.1 million), -34%, ¥1,530,000,000 ($13.8 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK3
05 (04) ¥109,000,000 ($980,000), -37%, ¥560,000,000 ($5.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (05) ¥x79,000,000 ($710,000), -25%, ¥705,000,000 ($6.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) WK3
07 (07) ¥x78,000,000 ($705,000), -13%, ¥765,000,000 ($7.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥x74,000,000 ($665,000), -23%, ¥1,595,000,000 ($14.5 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK5
09 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW
10 (09) ¥x58,000,000 ($520,000), +08%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.8 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration holds onto its reign atop the weekend box-office for a fifth-consecutive week, and likely saw a slightly increase over the weekend. Depending on where the actual lands, the thirty-ninth entry in the series may have set a fifth-weekend gross record, besting last year's film. A total above ¥4.5 billion ($40 million+) seems almost guaranteed now, and it has a fair shot at reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) milestone.

>Dumbo opened day-and-date with the rest of the world in Japan, but it proved to be an unsuccessful decision. Its debut is by far the lowest among Disney's live-action remakes, down an estimated 34% compared to the previous low, The Jungle Book. This opening is also low for Tim Burton, who has found great success in the market with Japan always being one of the biggest international markets, if not the biggest, for most of his films. 

>Tonde Saitama holds tremendously well once again, and after six weeks of release is close to exceeding the ¥3 billion milestone. The film has now exceeded a multiplier of 11, and could eventually reach 13 or even 14. It's the best performer so far this year, leg wise, and should remain one of 2019's top performances.

>Captain Marvel posted, perhaps surprisingly given its free-fall since opening day, a solid hold in its third weekend. It really needed this hold, too, in order to clear the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone, and while it's not guaranteed yet, it should eventually get there.

>And because I know many of you want to know: Bohemian Rhapsody grossed an estimated ¥49 million ($440,000) in its twenty-first weekend of release, up about 15%, bringing its cumulative total up to around ¥12.73 billion ($114.2 million) after 21 weeks in release. It has surpassed Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace to become the 17th highest-grossing film of all-time in Japan. Next up is Jurassic Park with ¥12.85 billion.

[Tower]

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Actuals (03/30-31)
01 (01) ¥323,763,200 ($2.9 million), +04%, ¥3,826,872,100 ($34.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
02 (---) ¥186,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥251,435,200 ($2.3 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
03 (03) ¥165,052,600 ($1.5 million), -05%, ¥2,902,416,800 ($26.4 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK6
04 (02) ¥124,077,700 ($1.1 million), -31%, ¥1,522,759,500 ($13.8 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK3
05 (04) ¥111,962,100 ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥555,822,100 ($5.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (05) ¥x81,720,700 ($735,000), -22%, ¥701,147,000 ($6.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) WK3
07 (06) ¥x78,054,900 ($703,000), -19%, ¥1,613,079,200 ($14.6 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK5
08 (07) ¥x76,876,100 ($692,000), -14%, ¥764,975,600 ($7.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) WK3
09 (09) ¥x71,458,700 ($643,000), +34%, ¥435,210,500 ($4.0 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3
10 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW *Est*
11 (13) ¥x47,682,700 ($429,000), +11%, ¥12,739,959,880 ($114.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK21
12 (08) ¥x43,775,800 ($394,000), -33%, ¥315,102,100 ($2.8 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) WK2

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration holds onto its reign atop the weekend box-office for a fifth-consecutive week, turning what was expected to be a threat to its reign this weekend into a no contest race. The weekend increase allowed the thirty-ninth entry in the series to set a fifth-weekend gross record, besting last year's film. A total above ¥4.5 billion ($40 million+) seems almost guaranteed now, and it has a fair shot at reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) milestone.

>Dumbo opened day-and-date with the rest of the world in Japan, but it proved to be an unsuccessful decision. Tim Burton's retelling of the classic Disney film sold a mediocre 144,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 598 screens, and reached 198,569 admissions since opening on Friday. Its debut is by far the lowest among Disney's live-action remakes, down a significant 38% compared to the previous low, The Jungle Book. I was wary to label this debut as a bomb yesterday, but the with actual coming in below ¥200 million, and a total of ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) likely being its ceiling, I'd now rule it a bomb unless it spawns miraculous legs somehow.

>Tonde Saitama held tremendously well once again, and after six weeks of release is close to exceeding the ¥3 billion milestone. The film has now exceeded a multiplier of 11, and could eventually reach 13 or even 14. It's the best performer so far this year, leg wise, and should remain one of 2019's top performances.

>Captain Marvel posted, perhaps surprisingly given its free-fall since opening day, a good hold in its third weekend. It really needed this hold, too, in order to clear the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone, and while it's not guaranteed yet, it should eventually get there.

>Green Book is now just over ¥200 million away from outgrossing The King's Speech to become the highest-grossing Best Picture Winner of the decade.

>Ninja Drones? hasn't had its weekend actual released yet, so its numbers above remain estimates. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody ended up increasing in its twenty-first weekend of release, and made a play at re-entering the top 10 once again. It surpassed Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace to become the 17th highest-grossing film of all-time over the weekend. Next up is Jurassic Park with ¥12.85 billion.

[charlie Jatinder]

What are the chances of Endgame doing $100mn? Under 5%?

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What are the chances of Endgame doing $100mn? Under 5%?

 

3x Infinity War? Under 0.1%

 

$50 million would be the top.

[charlie Jatinder]

Captain Marvel at end of 3rd weekend $13,628,809