JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

Just now, Jiffy said:

BOM has it's opening at $4.3m with a 26.9x multiplier to $115.7m. 

 

Is that opening incorrect?

According to corpse, yes.

[cannastop]

Just now, cannastop said:

According to corpse, yes.

 

1 minute ago, Jiffy said:

BOM has it's opening at $4.3m with a 26.9x multiplier to $115.7m. 

 

Is that opening incorrect?

There might be confusion between two day and three day openings.

[ScoobyDoo21]

Armaggedon is on that list on highest grossing Japanese movies? whaa

Edited May 25, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Armaggedon is on that list on highest grossing Japanese movies? whaa

Hey, Armageddon is #200th place in USA+Canada.

[Jiffy]

35 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

Armaggedon is on that list on highest grossing Japanese movies? whaa

Yeah it was a huge hit there. 

 

I remember seeing an even higher total listed in USD. 

[Claudio]

Whisper from Corpse :

 

Weekend Forecast (05/25-26)

01 (01) ¥309,000,000 ($2.8 million), -20%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.2 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥202,000,000 ($1.8 million), -27%, ¥2,360,000,000 ($21.5 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
05 (04) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), -31%, ¥4,835,000,000 ($43.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
06 (05) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥8,550,000,000 ($78.0 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
07 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
08 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($685,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($960,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x47,000,000 ($430,000), -45%, ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) WK2
10 (08) ¥x42,000,000 ($380,000), -41%, ¥1,915,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6

>The Confidence Man JP is aiming to repeat atop the weekend box-office, and it's likely to do so. The film adaptation of the Fuji TV Comedy surprised last weekend and had some good weekdays, and pre-sales today suggest it'll have a strong second weekend hold as well. All of this is evidence of the film is going to have a nice run, and it'll likely keep a strong presence at the box-office until early/mid-July. 

>Aircraft Carrier Ibuki is a bit of a dark horse and has a slight chance of surprising and taking the #1 spot. The rescue drama features a renowned cast and good reviews. Independent distributor Kino Films certainly has confidence it, too, given their aggressive marketing and release strategy (332 theaters is a lot for this distributor). Ultimately, I think it'll fall short of the top spot, but it'll have a respectable debut that Kino Films will be satisfied with. Look for this one to potentially have some strong legs.

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu appears like it's coming back down from the boost it seemed to receive from previously weary moviegoers, but it's still holding well. The last two weeks suggested it could have easily exceed the ¥3 billion milestone, and while it'll still get there, it'll finish just barely above that mark again. Overall, this may still be viewed as "disappointing" in the market, but the ¥3/3.5 billion mark is where the recent films in the animated franchise have landed, so I'd consider it a modest success. It could have been much less rather than much more.

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire, Avengers: Endgame, and Kingdom will all continue to better their already excellent performances, with all three films still on track to reach their final milestones of ¥9 billion, ¥6 billion, and ¥5 billion, respectively. All three are above and beyond performers and should find themselves a spot on the Yearly Top 10 list.

[Aurora]

So how much do you think should be a reasonably expectation from Japan for Aladdin when it comes out? Beauty made a little over 100M.

 

I'm also curious to see how well Lion King could do. I want to make a bullish prediction and say it could make 200M+ but I'm no expert on this haha!

Edited May 26, 2019 by Aurora

[Godzilla]

10 minutes ago, Aurora said:

So how much do you think should be a reasonably expectation from Japan for Aladdin when it comes out? Beauty made a little over 100M.

 

I'm also curious to see how well Lion King could do. I want to make a bullish prediction and say it could make 200M+ but I'm no expert on this haha!

I think Aladdin can make $50M+ don’t see Lion King making $200M at all. Maybe $100M? 

[cannastop]

50 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

I think Aladdin can make $50M+ don’t see Lion King making $200M at all. Maybe $100M? 

The original The Lion King was less popular in Japan than the original Aladdin. But The Lion King has a much better Japanese release date than The Lion King. Who knows what will happen?

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Godzilla said:

I think Aladdin can make $50M+ don’t see Lion King making $200M at all. Maybe $100M? 

Depending on WOM i think Aladdin could made $ 80M

 

From what i know, it’s the most popular Disney classic there, more than BATB and TLK.

[catlover]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

The original The Lion King was less popular in Japan than the original Aladdin. But The Lion King has a much better Japanese release date than The Lion King. Who knows what will happen?

 

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

From what i know, it’s the most popular Disney classic there, more than BATB and TLK.

Nope, you cannot judge it by the original box office numbers. BatB and TLK have gotten more popular than Aladdin since then, with the musicals and everything, especially TLK. I can see TLK reaching $100m in Japan, while Aladdin makes $60-70m.

[Tower]

Upcoming Release Schedule: June & July

06/07:
[328] - Aladdin (Disney)
[201] - Almost a Miracle (Warner Bros.)
[161] - Children of the Sea (Toho Video Division)
[101] - Cold Pursuit (Kadokawa)

06/14:
[345] - Men in Black International (Sony)
[126] - Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku)
[x93] - Don't Cry, Mr. Ogre (Kadokawa)

06/21:
[328] - X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox)
[326] - The Fable (Shochiku)
[250] - If I Could Ride a Wave With You (Toho)
[x98] - Final Fantasy XIV: Dad of Light (Gaga)

06/28:
[350] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony)
[242] - Bento Harassment (Showgate)
[234] - Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Vanilla of the Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
[141] - The Journalist (Star Sands/Aeon Entertainment)
[138] - Hot Gimmick: Girl Meets Boy (Toei)
[x82] - Sea of Revival (Kino Films)

________________________________

07/05:
[204] - Diner (Warner Bros.)
[x73] - Free! Road to the World - Dream (Shochiku)

07/12:
[367] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho)
[349] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)

07/19:
[TBD] - Weathering With You (Toho) *Makoto Shinkai's latest*
[283] - Tokyo Ghoul "S" (Shochiku)

07/26:
[TBD] - The Great War of Archimedes (Toho)
[TBD] - The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa)
[TBD] - Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei)

Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, especially for premium format releases distributed by Disney and Warner Bros. 

Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited.
101-149: Wide.
150-199: Below Average. 
200-249: Standard.
250-299: Above average.
300-349: Very wide.
>350: Optimal.

[Tower]

Here is a fairly wide-range list of projections:

¥10 billion+ potential (~$100 million+):
Weathering With You

¥5-¥10 billion potential (~$50-$100 million):
Toy Story 4

¥3-¥5 billion potential (~$30-$50 million):
Aladdin 
Men in Black International
Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Secret Life of Pets 2

¥2-¥3 billion potential (~$20-$30 million):
The Great War of Archimedes 

¥1 billion potential (~$10 million):
Almost a Miracle
Bento Harassment
Diner 
If I Could Ride a Wave With You
Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! 
The Fable
Tokyo Ghoul "S"

Less than ¥1 billion (Sub-$10 million):
Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Vanilla of the Land of Ice Cream
Children of the Sea
Cold Pursuit
Don't Cry, Mr. Ogre
Final Fantasy XIV: Dad of Light
Free! Road to the World - Dream
Hot Gimmick: Girl Meets Boy
Sea of Revival
The Journalist
Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom 
X-Men: Dark Phoenix

A few notes:
Weathering With You probably has the widest range since it could "only" earn around ¥10 billion, but it could also easily do ¥15 billion+. It's a uniquely difficult film to predict given how massive Shinkai's last film was.
Toy Story 4 is in a wide range. I expect it to do much better than ¥5 billion but I doubt it matches the success of its predecessor given how Pixar sequels have all declined in the market, so I wouldn't expect a total too close to ¥10 billion.
Aladdin is still a dark horse to me. There are both good and bad signs for it, equally, so I don't feel confident throwing out any specific number for it.

[Jamiem]

2 hours ago, Tower said:

 Weathering With You probably has the widest range since it could "only" earn around ¥10 billion, but it could also easily do ¥15 billion+. It's a uniquely difficult film to predict given how massive Shinkai's last film was.
Toy Story 4 is in a wide range. I expect it to do much better than ¥5 billion but I doubt it matches the success of its predecessor given how Pixar sequels have all declined in the market, so I wouldn't expect a total too close to ¥10 billion.
Aladdin is still a dark horse to me. There are both good and bad signs for it, equally, so I don't feel confident throwing out any specific number for it.

Just a guess but Miyazaki’s Spirited Away and Howl’s Moving Castle could be a good comp to Shinkai’s Your Name and Weathering with You. Both are sequels to very high grossing film series and both released three years apart. 

 

According to the highest grossing Japanese films in Japan Wikipedia (don’t know if it reliable or if there were any re-release numbers that were included) Spirited Away earned 30.8 to Howl’s 19.6 which means Howl maderoughly 63.7% of Spirited Away. A similar figure for Your Name 25.03 would give Weathering with You 15.94. (Please feel free to correct any figures either my calculations or the Wikipedia numbers) 

 

There is also another possibility that Your Name was like Princess Mononoke to Weathering with You (Spirited Away) and that is the case wow!!!

 

I know there is probably many of you shaking your heads at the Miyazaki and Shinkai comparison, so sorry about that. Anyway just my baseless speculation but thought I’d throw it out there none the less. 

[titanic2187]

On 5/24/2019 at 1:39 AM, RealLyre said:

 

 

Gkids took the NA rights for Weathering With You and set a theatrical release for early 2020.

 

Gkids has set an awards-qualifying run for 2019 with a theatrical release in early 2020, in both the original Japanese and a new English-language version.

 

ye I figured the early simultaneous release rumors were false, but it's interesting they're choosing Gkids over Funimation. they must be pushing hard for an Oscar nom (I remember Funimation had a really weird release date for Your Name that ruined its awards chances).

 

not sure what this means for its Box Office potential but Gkids has gotten 11 Best Animated Feature nominations in 10 years, and hasn't missed an Oscar nomination in the last 6 years. Looks like they're genuinely trying to get Shinkai his long overdue Oscar nomination which I'm very happy for. I'm not expecting him to win cus the Oscars are still an American Award and they'll prioritize American productions over Foreign's but a nomination is good enough.

 

It's also interesting they're doing a dub release as well. The last anime (and only) anime movie that won best animated feature (Spirited Away) was also released in english dub so

 

 

 

If Your Name can do 5m in NA without any Oscar buzz, if WwY can match Your Name quality wise, i can see WwY a breakout for anime

[Stewart]

Weekend estimates via Corpse:

 

(C)2019「コンフィデンスマンJP the movie」製作委員会

Weekend Estimates (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥347,000,000 ($3.2 million), -10%, ¥1,155,000,000 ($10.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥206,000,000 ($1.9 million), -25%, ¥2,365,000,000 ($21.6 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (04) ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), -27%, ¥4,840,000,000 ($43.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
05 (03) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
06 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
07 (05) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥8,560,000,000 ($78.1 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥x90,000,000 ($820,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (06) ¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), -57%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
10 (08) ¥x39,000,000 ($355,000), -46%, ¥1,915,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6

Everything mostly performed as expected this weekend. The Confidence Man JP held even better than early weekend numbers suggested though, delivering an excellent second weekend hold that easily allowed it to secure its second weekend atop the box-office. Sadako has the admissions to have earned a debut in the Top 5 (fourth or fifth) but this one isn't showing in any premium formats, so I expect its average ticket price to be relatively low. I think it'll just miss the Top 5 in revenue.

[Gavin Feng]

anyone knows the exact number of Spirited Away in worldwide box office(both ￥&$)? I saw many different words on this, over or under $300M.

[anti-Pedantic]

Weekend Actuals via Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥351,000,600 ($3.2 million), -09%, ¥1,205,906,900 ($11.0 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥246,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥332,068,500 ($3.0 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥211,320,400 ($1.9 million), -23%, ¥2,355,500,500 ($21.5 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (---) ¥164,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥209,706,700 ($1.9 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
05 (04) ¥153,219,800 ($1.4 million), -26%, ¥4,870,528,100 ($43.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
06 (03) ¥147,715,900 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,564,046,500 ($50.4 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
07 (05) ¥132,052,500 ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥8,575,715,400 ($78.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire(Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥x97,519,600 ($889,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (08) ¥x41,416,700 ($378,000), -42%, ¥1,916,583,400 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6
10 (06) ¥x40,074,100 ($365,000), -57%, ¥208,582,200 ($1.9 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
11 (07) ¥x34,148,600 ($311,000), -60%, ¥260,074,600 ($2.4 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) WK2

>The Confidence Man JP easily held onto the #1 spot in its second weekend of release, and delivered an excellent 9% hold in the process. I expect good/great holds for most of its run, and it should end up finishing above the ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) mark. This would be a particularly good result for a film that opened just two weeks after a major holiday period.

>Aircraft Carrier Ibuki comes in second place, and didn't disappoint with a solid 194,000 admissions sold over the weekend frame across 331 screens. It reached 265,070 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid debut, but it's a very impressive debut for independent distributor Kino Films. It should finish around ¥1.5 billion ($15 million).

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu slips to third place in its fourth-weekend of release, delivering yet another good weekend hold -- the second best in the Top 10. The film's trajectory remains unchanged, and it should finish just above the ¥3 billion ($30 million) milestone. 

>Sadako makes a surprising debut in fourth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 416 screens. It reached 152,023 admissions since opening on Friday. Its average ticket price came in much higher than I was expecting. I don't have an opening list of the many Sadako (Grudge) films, but this opening is likely in the middle of pack. Legs can be kind of unpredictable for the horror genre, but a total of ¥1 billion ($10 million) is doable.

>Kingdom rounded out the Top 5 by edging ahead of Endgame this weekend (the two films have been neck-and-neck for the past few weeks), earning itself a good hold in its sixth-weekend of release. Unless it experiences an unexpected drop next week, it's likely to outgross Death Note: The Last Name (¥5.2 billion) and then Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (¥5.22 billion) to become the highest-grossing live-action film adapted from a Weekly Shonen manga series.

>Avengers: Endgame gets bumped out of the Top 5, but it's still performing well, and holding noticeably better than most superhero films. Its chances of reaching the ¥6 billion milestone was 50/50 at best just last week, but this weekend's hold should nearly lock the milestone up. I expect it'll finish at ¥6.1/6.2 billion ($55/56 million).

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire continues its excellent run in its seventh-weekend of release, and is keeping a strong ¥1 billion lead over last year's franchise record-setting release. It's very likely to exceed the ¥9 billion milestone now, and while its impressive lead over last year's film will begin to shrink very soon, I do believe it'll stay ahead of it and set a new franchise record. I expect it'll end up grossing around ¥9.2/9.3 billion ($84/85 million).

>Promare's weekend figure remains an estimate, but its three-day total is actual. It sold 64,975 admissions since opening on Friday across 200 screens.

 

[Olive]

Godzilla OD is very good, 80%of New Conan movie at the same point

[Cookson]

6 minutes ago, Olive said:

Godzilla OD is very good, 80%of New Conan movie at the same point

Perfect! Doing good where it matters!