JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Tower]

Obon Festival 2019 - Daily Estimates (08/12-16)

Monday (08/12)
¥430,000,000 ($4.1 million), 0, ¥1,446,000,000 ($13.7 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 04
¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million), 0, ¥1,646,321,500 ($15.6 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 04
¥405,000,000 ($3.8 million), +110%, ¥7,890,000,000 ($73.6 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 25
¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million), +72%, ¥7,860,000,000 ($73.2 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 32
¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), +49%, ¥1,595,000,000 ($15.1 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 11
¥x85,000,000 ($800,000), +47%, ¥1,270,000,000 ($12.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 18
¥x75,000,000 ($705,000), +23%, ¥885,000,000 ($8.4 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 11
¥x70,000,000 ($660,000), +115%, ¥1,230,000,000 ($11.6 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 18
¥x55,000,000 ($520,000), +60%, ¥2,345,000,000 ($21.8 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 32
¥x45,000,000 ($425,000), +33%, ¥11,680,000,000 ($107.5 million), Aladdin (Disney) Day 67

Tuesday (08/13)
¥330,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥1,775,000,000 ($16.8 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 05
¥320,000,000 ($3.0 million), +93%, ¥8,210,000,000 ($76.6 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 26
¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥1,960,000,000 ($18.6 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 05
¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), +60%, ¥8,035,000,000 ($74.9 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 33
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +44%, ¥1,720,000,000 ($16.3 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 12
¥x75,000,000 ($710,000), +51%, ¥1,345,000,000 ($12.7 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 19
¥x55,000,000 ($520,000), +83%, ¥1,285,000,000 ($12.1 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 19
¥x55,000,000 ($520,000), +25%, ¥940,000,000 ($8.9 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 12
¥x45,000,000 ($425,000), +53%, ¥2,390,000,000 ($22.2 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 33
¥x40,000,000 ($380,000), +21%, ¥11,720,000,000 ($107.9 million), Aladdin (Disney) Day 68

Wednesday (08/14)
¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥2,200,000,000 ($20.8 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 06
¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million), +88%, ¥8,600,000,000 ($80.3 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 27
¥340,000,000 ($3.2 million), 0, ¥2,300,000,000 ($21.8 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 06
¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million), +51%, ¥8,265,000,000 ($77.1 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 34
¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), +64%, ¥1,865,000,000 ($17.7 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 13
¥100,000,000 ($940,000), +32%, ¥1,445,000,000 ($13.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 20
¥x65,000,000 ($610,000), +70%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.7 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 20
¥x60,000,000 ($565,000), +34%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.5 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 13
¥x55,000,000 ($515,000), +39%, ¥2,445,000,000 ($22.7 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 34
¥x50,000,000 ($470,000), +07%, ¥11,770,000,000 ($108.4 million), Aladdin (Disney) Day 69

Thursday (08/15)
¥305,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥2,505,000,000 ($23.7 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 07
¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million), +66%, ¥8,875,000,000 ($82.9 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 28
¥255,000,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥2,555,000,000 ($24.2 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 07
¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +45%, ¥8,430,000,000 ($78.7 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 35
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +58%, ¥1,980,000,000 ($18.8 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 14
¥x70,000,000 ($660,000), +33%, ¥1,515,000,000 ($14.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 21
¥x45,000,000 ($425,000), +54%, ¥1,395,000,000 ($13.1 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 21
¥x40,000,000 ($380,000), +15%, ¥1,040,000,000 ($9.9 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 13
¥x40,000,000 ($380,000), +27%, ¥2,485,000,000 ($23.1 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 35
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), -05%, ¥11,805,000,000 ($108.7 million), Aladdin (Disney) Day 70

Friday (08/16)
¥305,000,000 ($2.9 million), +11%, ¥2,810,000,000 ($26.6 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 08
¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million), +55%, ¥9,150,000,000 ($84.5 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 29
¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), -49%, ¥2,800,000,000 ($26.5 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 08
¥155,000,000 ($1.5 million), +47%, ¥8,585,000,000 ($80.2 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 36
¥100,000,000 ($940,000), +43%, ¥2,080,000,000 ($19.7 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 15
¥x65,000,000 ($610,000), +52%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($14.9 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 22
¥x45,000,000 ($425,000), +56%, ¥1,440,000,000 ($13.5 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 22
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($0.33 million), Dance With Me (Warner Bros.) NEW
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), +37%, ¥2,520,000,000 ($23.5 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 36
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), -03%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($10.3 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 14

% changes versus same day last week.

 

And that pretty much concludes Obon Festival 2019. This upcoming weekend will probably see some very good holds, but I don't expect any increases at the moment since the holiday frame largely fell over the weekdays this year.

Regarding One Piece Stampede's near 50% drop versus last Friday, don't be alarmed. I'd actually consider it decent. It's a very frontloaded film franchise, and its opening day was its biggest day of the week (and biggest Friday of the year). It'll probably see a second weekend decline over 40%, and perhaps near 50% as well. 

The Lion King managing a Friday-to-Friday increase is very notable though, even if it was a pretty small increase. We'll have to see how it behaves after this upcoming weekend, but the Friday increase is a good sign of a potential long performance. I'd like to provide a projected total it could be aiming for, but it's still too early to give a reliable prediction. 

Weathering With You just couldn't quite reclaim the #1 spot over the week, but it's not like it needed to. It had the strongest Obon bump among all the films in the Top 10, as you can see from its percentage increases each day, and will be close to the ¥10 billion milestone after Sunday. Depending on the actual numbers, it'll either exceed the ¥10 billion mark on Monday or Tuesday, its 32nd or 33rd day in release. I'll have the Fastest to ¥10 billion list up soon for comparisons. ¥15 billion+ has become increasingly likely to happen. 

Toy Story 4 enjoyed a good Obon boost, but not strong enough to convince me that it's a 100% lock to outgross Finding Nemo to become Pixar's highest-grossing film in the market. It's still very likely, but it's probably going to stall out around that ¥11 billion mark it needs to exceed to beat Nemo. And it's very unlikely to beat Aladdin now, which is going to finish a bit above ¥12 billion.

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243497#p2243497

Fastest to ¥10 billion (Uber-Blockbuster) - 90 Days or Less

25 - Spirited Away (2001)
28 - Your Name. (2016)
28 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
30 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
31 - Ponyo (2008)
32 or 33 - Weathering With You (2019) *Pending Sunday/Monday results*
33 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
35 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
37 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
37 - Frozen (2014)
41 - Aladdin (2019)
42 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
43 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
44 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azakaban (2004)
45 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
47 - Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace (1999)
50 - Avatar (2009)
52 - Finding Nemo (2003)
52 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
52 - The Last Samurai (2003)
53 - The Wind Rises (2013)
53 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
53 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
57 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
74 - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
78 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)

Note: Not enough data available for a few films that likely would make this list, primarily including: Titanic, Armageddon, Jurassic Park, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and Antarctica.

Toy Story 4 is aiming for Day 50 or so, but I don't want to list it yet since it's still a couple weeks away and things could change.

[cannastop]

This is really exciting! I hope Weathering With You breaks the all time top ten. (You'll probably tell me it's going to do that in any case or something.)

[CalifoBoy]

So things seem to go this way for what the top 10 of highest grossing films could be:

 

1. Frozen 2 - ¥18B / ¥19B ($180M / $190M)

2. Weathering With You - ¥16B / ¥17B ($165M)

3. Aladdin - ¥11.9B ($111M)

4. Toy Story 4 - ¥9.8B / ¥10B ($98M / $106M)

5. Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire - (I suppose) ¥8.6B ($81M)

6. The Lion King - ¥8.1B ($75M)

7. One Piece Film Stampede - ¥7.7B ($68M)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - ¥7B ($63M)

9. Cats (2019) - ¥6.6B ($57M) (Since both Miserables and Showman did so well...)

10. Avengers: Endgame - (I suppose) ¥6.1B ($55M)

 

Forgive me guys if i did something wrong 😛

 

 

[cannastop]

26 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

So things seem to go this way for what the top 10 of highest grossing films could be:

 

1. Frozen 2 - ¥18B / ¥19B ($180M / $190M)

2. Weathering With You - ¥16B / ¥17B ($165M)

3. Aladdin - ¥11.9B ($111M)

4. Toy Story 4 - ¥9.8B / ¥10B ($98M / $106M)

5. Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire - (I suppose) ¥8.6B ($81M)

6. The Lion King - ¥8.1B ($75M)

7. One Piece Film Stampede - ¥7.7B ($68M)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - ¥7B ($63M)

9. Cats (2019) - ¥6.6B ($57M) (Since both Miserables and Showman did so well...)

10. Avengers: Endgame - (I suppose) ¥6.1B ($55M)

 

Forgive me guys if i did something wrong 😛

 

 

I guess?

 

lol at Cats though. One Piece seems too high and Star Wars seems too low.

 

Also Japan likes to have a system where December counts as part of the new year. December 2015 is listed with movies from 2016, for example.

Edited August 17, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243518#p2243518

Quote

It's a bit late to post a Weekend Forecast, so I'll go ahead and post the daily estimate for this weekend instead. Saturday and Sunday will likely come in below any of the weekdays, but that's normal coming off of a major holiday week. 

Holds are still looking to be very good (One Piece aside, of course), probably mostly sub-20/25% or even better for most films. The Lion King should rise to the #1 spot, but Weathering With You will make it a close battle and could reclaim the top spot itself in its sixth-weekend of release.

 

[catlover]

1 hour ago, CalifoBoy said:

So things seem to go this way for what the top 10 of highest grossing films could be:

 

1. Frozen 2 - ¥18B / ¥19B ($180M / $190M)

2. Weathering With You - ¥16B / ¥17B ($165M)

3. Aladdin - ¥11.9B ($111M)

4. Toy Story 4 - ¥11B ($103M)

5. Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire - ¥9.4B ($86M)

6. The Lion King - ¥8.1B ($75M)

7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - ¥8B ($74M)

8. Avengers: Endgame - (¥6.1B ($55M)

9. Kingdom - ¥5.7B ($51M)

10. One Piece Film Stampede - ¥5.5B ($52M)

 

Maybe 2020? --> Cats (2019) - ¥6.6B ($57M)

 

Forgive me guys if i did something wrong 😛

 

 

Some corrections, if that's okay 😁, because:

1. Detective Conan has already cross ¥9B and will have  a 4DX re-release.

2. TS4 will cross ¥10B.

3. One Piece is a frontloaded franchise.

4. SW9 will increase from SW8.

5. I'm not even sure Cats will be released in 2019.

 

Getting near ¥20B is a tall order for Frozen 2, but not impossible, so I didn't change that.

 

Also, this is a calendar year ranking (Jan-Dec 2019). A Japanese yearly ranking will be much different since SW9 will be counted as a 2020 release, and maybe Frozen 2 too. And Fantastic Beast 2 is counted as a 2019 release.

 

Edited August 17, 2019 by catlover

[Omni]

If TS4 drops below 3M (which should be the case given Corpse's % range) I have a hard time seeing it reach 110M dollars. It would need a 10x multiplier from a post-Obon weekend.

[KP1025]

Corpse:

 

Saturday (08/17)
¥310,000,000 ($2.9 million), -08%, ¥3,120,000,000 ($29.5 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 09
¥255,000,000 ($2.4 million), -08%, ¥9,405,000,000 ($86.9 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 30
¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million), -47%, ¥3,010,000,000 ($28.5 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 09
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), -16%, ¥8,710,000,000 ($81.4 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 37
¥100,000,000 ($940,000), -20%, ¥2,180,000,000 ($20.6 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 16
¥x55,000,000 ($520,000), -04%, ¥1,635,000,000 ($15.4 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 23
¥x45,000,000 ($425,000), -11%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.9 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 23
¥x40,000,000 ($375,000), -38%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.7 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 15
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), 0, ¥x70,000,000 ($0.66 million), Dance With Me (Warner Bros.) Day 02
¥x30,000,000 ($285,000), -21%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($23.8 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 37

% changes versus same day last week.

 

[Sunny Max]

Japan box office Weekend (7-8 Aug)

 

The Lion King :- $5.9 M / $32.5 M

Weathering With You :- $5.1 M / $89 M

One Piece Stampede :- $4.2 M / $31 M

Tory Story 4 :- $2.5 M / $82.7 M

Hobbs & Shaw :- $2.4 M / $22.6 M

Aladdin :- $0.5 M / $109.7 M

 

 

 

Edited August 18, 2019 by Sunny Max

[KP1025]

Corpse:

 

Sunday (08/18)
¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), -25%, ¥3,420,000,000 ($32.3 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 10
¥255,000,000 ($2.4 million), -30%, ¥9,660,000,000 ($89.3 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 31
¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million), -50%, ¥3,220,000,000 ($30.5 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) Day 10
¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), -32%, ¥8,830,000,000 ($82.5 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 38
¥x95,000,000 ($895,000), -42%, ¥2,275,000,000 ($21.5 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) Day 17
¥x55,000,000 ($520,000), -23%, ¥1,690,000,000 ($15.9 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) Day 24
¥x40,000,000 ($375,000), -41%, ¥1,525,000,000 ($14.3 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) Day 24
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), -31%, ¥2,585,000,000 ($24.2 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) Day 38
¥x35,000,000 ($330,000), -51%, ¥1,150,000,000 ($11.0 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) Day 17
¥x30,000,000 ($285,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($0.94 million), Dance With Me (Warner Bros.) Day 03

% changes versus same day last week.

 

Last Sunday was inflated by Monday being a holiday, so these drops seem a bit harsher in comparison. Also, there was a typhoon over the weekend that may have deflated numbers a bit overall. 

[meriodejaneiro]

Does TS4 has still enough fuel to reach the 100M?

With a 1.1M we, and still 17.5M to make ... i don't see it clear ... but I didn't see Aladdin going beyond 650M ww and look ... 

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Does TS4 has still enough fuel to reach the 100M?

With a 1.1M we, and still 17.5M to make ... i don't see it clear ... but I didn't see Aladdin going beyond 650M ww and look ... 

Weekend was 2.5M not 1.1M which is Sunday gross. $100M should happen but not much more. Maybe 105M finish.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

Weekend was 2.5M not 1.1M which is Sunday gross. $100M should happen but not much more. Maybe 105M finish.

which is  only 20 million less in $ than ts3 a very good drop from the previous movie 

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243566#p2243566

Quote

A bit of a weak Sunday (largely flat), but since it was the day before things return to normal (for adults, schools are still out for another week or two), the evening/night business was down significantly compared to last Sunday.

There was also a typhoon (downgraded to a cyclone) that affected some parts of the country over the weekend, and while it shouldn't have had a noticeable impact given its path and weakened state, it could have slightly deflated things a tad. 

Overall though, so-so Sunday (and weekend) aside, Obon Festival 2019 was incredibly strong, and I feel confident in calling it the strongest Obon Festival on record at the box-office. I failed to find any year that could rival, much less beat it, since 1998.

 

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243569#p2243569

Quote

Overall, better. I didn't have too high of hopes for [The Lion King], but it had a good opening followed by a holiday week that improved its outlook some more. Like most of the films that have only been in release for a few weeks, it's still hard to give a projected total due to how they could behave post the holidays (the last seven days have more or less been holidays), especially once summer vacation ends (beginning of September). Different films simply perform differently post-holidays.

All that said... running the numbers for the next several weeks and giving it some good/great weekly holds (no weak or amazing ones), I expect it'll exceed ¥7 billion ($60 million+) and perhaps finish around ¥8 billion ($70 million+). But again, this isn't a prediction yet, just a rough projection.

Will it beat Zootopia in Japan? 🤔

[charlie Jatinder]

On 5/14/2012 at 6:27 AM, Rudolf said:

Everyone familiar with a certain market says the same: SH have never done this before here and then suddenly TA does something totally different. Possible explanations ready for Japan?

Change TA with Endgame. Nothing Changed.

[Cooper Legion]

28 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Change TA with Endgame. Nothing Changed.

Good things come in threes 

[catlover]

4 hours ago, john2000 said:

which is  only 20 million less in $ than ts3 a very good drop from the previous movie 

That drop in US$ is only because of exchange rates. $105m means around ¥11b, which is actually more than TS3 (¥10.8b).

[Nero]

48 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Good things come in threes 

What was his point?