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4 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Christmas Week 2019 - Daily Estimates (12/23-27):

Monday (12/23)
¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥1,795,000,000 ($16.5 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 04
¥x90,000,000 ($820,000), +13%, ¥8,360,000,000 ($76.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 32
¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 04
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 03
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), -38%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.5 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 11
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -09%, ¥630,000,000 ($5.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 18
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), -56%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 11
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), -33%, ¥747,000,000 ($6.9 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 18
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 04
¥x07,000,000 ($x65,000), +46%, ¥231,000,000 ($2.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 11


Tuesday (12/24): Christmas Eve
¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥1,960,000,000 ($18.0 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 05
¥105,000,000 ($960,000), +74%, ¥8,465,000,000 ($77.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 33
¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥510,000,000 ($4.7 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 05
¥x22,000,000 ($200,000), +43%, ¥652,000,000 ($6.0 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 19
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.7 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 04
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -19%, ¥507,000,000 ($4.6 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 12
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -49%, ¥492,000,000 ($4.5 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 12
¥x11,000,000 ($100,000), -03%, ¥758,000,000 ($7.0 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 19
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), +228%, ¥241,000,000 ($2.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 12
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), 0, ¥x73,000,000 ($0.7 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 05


Wednesday (12/25): Christmas Day
¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), +106%, ¥8,660,000,000 ($79.3 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 34
¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥2,135,000,000 ($19.6 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 06
¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), 0, ¥565,000,000 ($5.2 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 06
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +67%, ¥687,000,000 ($6.3 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 20
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -08%, ¥537,000,000 ($4.9 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 13
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥320,000,000 ($2.9 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 05
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), +436%, ¥262,000,000 ($2.5 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 13
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -32%, ¥513,000,000 ($4.7 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 13
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +43%, ¥778,000,000 ($7.2 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 20
¥x13,000,000 ($120,000), 0, ¥x86,000,000 ($0.8 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 06

 

So frozen 2 has now 0% chance of getting 150M USD?

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8 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

So I thought Frozen 2 being over TROS yesterday may have just been the Ladies Day boost, but it's winning so far today as well (almost 4x last Thursday). 

Corpse did say wed-fri would be highly boosted for family flicks as kids are on break but that means weekend would be flat for weekday numbers while SW9 will increase big on saturday.

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Frozen 2 held at #1 Thursday.

Quote

From Mimorin:

2019/12/26 23:42更新 最新デイリー詳細速報(約20分毎更新)
順位 販売(前回比) 座席(消化率) 先週比 95分率 全日推定 映画作品タイトル名
*1 *88914(+***4) 394156(1.00) 274.4% 47.0% ****** アナと雪の女王2
*2 *86323(+***3) 656841(1.00) 765.5% 43.7% ****** スター・ウォーズ スカイウォ…
*3 *25548(+***6) 248640(1.00) ****** 62.0% ****** 僕のヒーローアカデミア TH…
 
Slightly wider gap including independents:
[順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名]
 *1 *96181 アナと雪の女王2
 *2 *92022 スター・ウォーズ スカイウォ…
 *3 *28236 僕のヒーローアカデミア TH…

It'll be interesting to see if it can hold #1 on Friday, before SW9 moves back to the top on Saturday.

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6 hours ago, Moviefanfr said:

Any final gross estimation for TROS after a few days ? 

 

 

From Corpse regarding Frozen and SW:

 

It should be over $100 million by January 5th, perhaps as high as $110 million. As for what's a lock, $120 million is a lock, $130 million is close to a lock (say, 90%), and $140 million is probably 50/50 at the moment. It's behaving very good during the first stages of the holiday period, so I'm feeling confident in it finishing strong.

Star Wars IX is harder to gauge right now since it just opened, but I imagine it'll be around $45 million, maybe $50 million by January 5th. I'm still projecting it'll finish around $70/80 million, but nothing so far has really happened to change that projection since it's so early in its run.

 

Thursday (12/26)
¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥2,315,000,000 ($21.2 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 07
¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million), +169%, ¥8,830,000,000 ($80.9 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 35
¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥615,000,000 ($5.6 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 07
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +721%, ¥292,000,000 ($2.8 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 14
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +57%, ¥712,000,000 ($6.5 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 21
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥345,000,000 ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 06
¥x22,000,000 ($200,000), +01%, ¥559,000,000 ($5.1 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 14
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +69%, ¥798,000,000 ($7.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 21
¥x19,000,000 ($175,000), -34%, ¥532,000,000 ($4.9 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 14
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), 0, ¥x98,000,000 ($0.9 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 07

Edited by Tower
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11 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

F2 is seeing a over 100% increase Mon-Fri but weekend will haven't this number.... It is losing 1,5 admission by F1 at the end of week 6.

I mean... this was already expected. The gap will bigger and bigger...

-------

Assume that Friday will +175% from last week, then this week from the last saturday to this friday is around +72% from the previous week.

Edited by PKMLover
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53 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

I mean... this was already expected. The gap will bigger and bigger...

 

For now is only -16/17% that means 17M+ final for F2, but unfortunately the real frozen-mania started later with 3,7M adm (48M$) in 12 days (44/55). At least a frozen-mania 2 will happens, I think F2 will end to something a bit lower or higher of 12M (-40%) or 15Byen

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16 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

For now is only -16/17% that means 17M+ final for F2, but unfortunately the real frozen-mania started later with 3,7M adm (48M$) in 12 days (44/55). At least a frozen-mania 2 will happens, I think F2 will end to something a bit lower or higher of 12M (-40%) or 15Byen

15B yen = $138M, thats nice

Corpse said $130M is around 90%, $140M is around 50%

Edited by PKMLover
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9 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

15B yen = $138M 

Corpse said $130M is around 90%, $140M is around 50%

So my bet has 58% odds in favour, much better than the 47% of a Rouge/Noir ot Pair/Impair bet at the French Roulette.

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Frozen 2

Day Date Gross % +/- YD / LW* Gross-to-date Weekend Weekly
Fri Nov. 22, 2019 $2,783,000     $2,783,000   $2,783,000
Sat Nov. 23, 2019 $7,710,000 177.04%   $10,493,000    
Sun Nov. 24, 2019 $7,403,000 -3.98%   $17,896,000 $15,113,000  
Mon Nov. 25, 2019 $2,156,000 -70.88%   $20,052,000    
Tue Nov. 26, 2019 $1,316,000 -38.96%   $21,368,000    
Wed Nov. 27, 2019 $2,121,000 61.17%   $23,489,000    
Thu Nov. 28, 2019 $1,229,000 -42.06%   $24,718,000    
Fri Nov. 29, 2019 $1,595,000 29.78% -42.69% $26,313,000   $23,530,000
Sat Nov. 30, 2019 $5,248,000 229.03% -31.93% $31,561,000    
Sun Dec. 1, 2019 $7,934,000 51.18% 7.17% $39,495,000 $13,182,000  
Mon Dec. 2, 2019 $1,703,000 -78.54% -21.01% $41,198,000    
Tue Dec. 3, 2019 $930,000 -45.39% -29.33% $42,128,000    
Wed Dec. 4, 2019 $1,514,000 62.80% -28.62% $43,642,000    
Thu Dec. 5, 2019 $884,000 -41.61% -28.07% $44,526,000    
Fri Dec. 6, 2019 $1,197,000 35.41% -24.95% $45,723,000   $19,410,000
Sat Dec. 7, 2019 $4,090,000 241.69% -22.07% $49,813,000    
Sun Dec. 8, 2019 $5,435,000 32.89% -31.50% $55,248,000 $9,525,000  
Mon Dec. 9, 2019 $1,188,000 -78.14% -30.24% $56,436,000    
Tue Dec. 10, 2019 $778,000 -34.51% -16.34% $57,214,000    
Wed Dec. 11, 2019 $1,273,000 63.62% -15.92% $58,487,000    
Thu Dec. 12, 2019 $762,000 -40.14% -13.80% $59,249,000    
Fri Dec. 13, 2019 $953,000 25.07% -20.38% $60,202,000   $14,479,000
Sat Dec. 14, 2019 $2,948,000 209.34% -27.92% $63,150,000    
Sun Dec. 15, 2019 $4,198,000 42.40% -22.76% $67,348,000 $7,146,000  
Mon Dec. 16, 2019 $867,000 -79.35% -27.02% $68,215,000    
Tue Dec. 17, 2019 $659,000 -23.99% -15.30% $68,874,000    
Wed Dec. 18, 2019 $1,036,000 57.21% -18.62% $69,910,000    
Thu Dec. 19, 2019 $661,000 -36.20% -13.25% $70,571,000    
Fri Dec. 20, 2019 $781,000 18.15% -18.05% $71,352,000   $11,150,000
Sat Dec. 21, 2019 $2,041,000 161.33% -30.77% $73,393,000    
Sun Dec. 22, 2019 $2,637,000 29.20% -37.18% $76,030,000 $4,678,000  
Mon Dec. 23, 2019 $929,000 -64.77% 7.15% $76,959,000    
Tue Dec. 24, 2019 $1,082,000 16.47% 64.19% $78,041,000    
Wed Dec. 25, 2019 $2,016,000 86.32% 94.59% $80,057,000    
Thu Dec. 26, 2019 $1,683,000 -16.52% 154.61% $81,740,000    
Fri Dec. 27, 2019 $1,937,000 15.09% 148.02% $83,677,000   $12,325,000
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From Corpse:

 

It won't be an easy path for Frozen II to surpass Weathering With You, and if it would collapse after the holiday period, it won't beat Weathering With You, but I believe it has the advantage still. It will need a strong boost next week, admittingly.

I'm going to do some "projecting" right now, but do NOT take this as a prediction:

It's going into the weekend right around ¥9 billion ($82/83 million), and assuming a sixth-weekend around ¥450 million, it'll enter New Year Week (next Monday) with around ¥9.5 billion ($86/87 million). Then its New Year Week will probably be stronger than Christmas Week (mostly due to the gains it'll see Mon-to-Mon), so let's assume it adds around ¥800/900 million more from next Mon.-Fri.. It'll be at ¥10.3/10.4 billion ($95/96 million) going into the the first weekend of January, which is typically strong and can sometimes see increases, but let's say it just stays flat and does another ¥450 million again next weekend. So, coming out of the holiday period (January 5th), it should be somewhere around ¥10.8 billion ($99/100 million). That'll be about ¥800 million, or 7%, behind Weathering With You after seven weeks in release. Its weekdays will begin to drop-off again, but after the initial post-New Year weekend drop on the weekend of Jan. 11-12th, its weekends should remain pretty strong, and should ultimately lead it to around ¥15 billion (which is almost $140 million).

Again, this is just a very rough, normal projection. I think its gross during New Year will end up a little better than I projected, and I do expect a small increase next weekend, so I wouldn't be surprised if it broke ¥11 billion by January 5th. That should be the milestone to watch. At the end of the holiday period (January 5th): If it's below ¥11 billion, it'll struggle to beat Weathering With You. If it's above ¥11 billion, it's likely to beat Weathering With You.

 

Friday (12/27)
¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), -58%, ¥2,535,000,000 ($23.2 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 08
¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), +162%, ¥9,010,000,000 ($82.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 36
¥x65,000,000 ($595,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) NEW
¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), -63%, ¥670,000,000 ($6.1 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 08
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Division) NEW
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +83%, ¥742,000,000 ($6.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 22
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +678%, ¥317,000,000 ($3.0 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 15
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥370,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 07
¥x21,000,000 ($190,000), -01%, ¥580,000,000 ($5.3 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 15
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), +70%, ¥816,000,000 ($7.5 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 22

 

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Most Attended Years, Yearly Admissions (1955-):

1958 - 1,127,452,000
1957 - 1,098,882,000
1959 - 1,088,111,000

1960 - 1,014,364,000
1956 - 993,875,000
1955 - 868,912,000

1961 - 863,430,000
1962 - 662,279,000
1963 - 511,121,000
1964 - 431,454,000
1965 - 372,676,000
1966 - 345,811,000
1967 - 335,067,000
1968 - 313,398,000
1969 - 283,980,000

1970 - 254,799,000
1971 - 216,754,000

2019 - 190,000,000 (Rough Projection/Placeholder Rank)
1972 - 187,391,000
1974 - 185,738,000
1973 - 185,324,000

2016 - 180,189,000
2017 - 174,483,000

2010 - 174,358,000
1975 - 174,020,000
1976 - 171,020,000

1983 - 170,430,000

2004 - 170,092,000
2009 - 169,297,000

2018 - 169,210,000
2015 - 166,630,000

1978 - 166,042,000
1977 - 165,172,000
1979 - 165,088,000

2006 - 164,585,000
1980 - 164,422,000
2001 - 163,280,000
2007 - 163,193,000
2003 - 162,347,000

2014 - 161,116,000
2002 - 160,767,000
1986 - 160,758,000
2008 - 160,491,000
2005 - 160,453,000

2013 - 155,888,000
1982 - 155,280,000
2012 - 155,159,000
1985 - 155,130,000
1998 - 153,102,000
1984 - 150,527,000
1981 - 149,450,000

1990 - 146,000,000
1988 - 144,825,000
1999 - 144,762,000
2011 - 144,726,000
1987 - 143,935,000
1989 - 143,573,000

1997 - 140,719,000
1991 - 138,330,000

2000 - 135,390,000
1993 - 130,720,000
1995 - 127,040,000
1992 - 125,600,000
1994 - 122,990,000
1996 - 119,575,000


Legend: '50s / '60s / '70s / '80s / '90s / '00s / '10s

Edited by Tower
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