JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[charlie Jatinder]

Japan Box Office Top 10 Gross in last few weekends.

 

May 30-31: $0.92mn

June 06-07: $1.43mn

June 13-14: $1.43mn

June 20-21: $2.38mn

June 27-28: $5.26mn

Jul 04-05: $4.4mn

Jul 11-12: $4.24mn

Jul 18-19: $8.4mn

Jul 25-26: $10.1mn

 

First $10mn weekend since Feb 22-23.

[Tower]

August Release Schedule 2020:

07/31:
[113] - Dunkirk [2017 re-release] (Warner Bros.)
[x71] - Ganbare!! Robocon (Toei)

08/07:
[377] - Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho)
[340] - Grand Blue (Warner Bros.)
[123] - Ultraman Taiga The Movie: New Generation Climax (Shochiku)
[110] - Eyes on Me: The Movie (Avex Pictures)

08/10: Mountain Day (National Holiday)
08/08-16: Obon Festival (Holiday Period)

08/14:
[339] - Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku)
[303] - Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho)
[114] - Toei Manga Festival 2020 (Toei)
[114] - Inception [2010 re-release] (Warner Bros.)

08/15:
[156] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex)

08/21:
[350] - Onward (Disney)

08/28:
[334] - Stigmatized Properties (Shochiku)
[263] - Blue, Painful, and Brittle (Toho)

Note: The vast majority of August releases this year were originally scheduled for the Spring but were postponed.

Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, especially for premium format releases distributed by Disney and Warner Bros.

General Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited / 101-149: Wide / 150-199: Below Average / 200-249: Average / 250-299: Above Average / 300-349: Very Wide / >350: Optimal.

[charlie Jatinder]

Spirited Away Japan (Re-release)

 

Week 0: $0.25mn

Week 1: $1.80mn

Week 2: $1.74mn

Week 3: $1.49mn

Week 4: $1.13mn

Week 5: $0.62mn

 

Total: $7.05mn

 

Saturday is down 35% from last week. $8.5mn full run. 

Edited August 1, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Spirited Away Japan (Re-release)

 

Week 0: $0.25mn

Week 1: $1.80mn

Week 2: $1.74mn

Week 3: $1.49mn

Week 4: $1.13mn

Week 5: $0.62mn

 

6th Weekend: $0.23mn

 

Total: $7.28mn

 

$8.5mn full run. 

[Tower]

(C)2020「今日から俺は!!劇場版」製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (08/01-02):
01 (01) ¥275,967,300 ($2.6 million), -44%, ¥2,659,650,650 ($25.1 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK3
02 (02) ¥240,396,100 ($2.3 million), -41%, ¥1,548,313,100 ($14.7 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK2
03 (03) ¥x27,355,750 ($258,000), -24%, ¥766,352,650 ($7.2 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) WK6
04 (04) ¥x24,571,750 ($232,000), -29%, ¥775,914,950 ($7.3 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) WK6
05 (05) ¥x19,910,550 ($188,000), -23%, ¥642,919,450 ($6.0 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) WK6
06 (06) ¥x13,377,500 ($126,000), -43%, ¥x95,246,200 ($0.9 million), Secret Heroine Phantomirage! The Movie (Kadokawa) WK2
07 (---) ¥x11,526,900 ($109,000), 0, ¥1,661,957,000 ($14.9 million), Dunkirk [2017 re-release] (Warner Bros.) NEW
08 (08) ¥x9,124,900 ($x86,000), -38%, ¥174,386,800 ($1.6 million), The Invisible Man (Toho-Towa) WK4
09 (07) ¥x8,228,220 ($x78,000), -49%, ¥176,706,360 ($1.7 million), Kiss Him, Not Me (Shochiku) WK4
10 (---) ¥x7,681,950 ($x72,000), 0, ¥x8,922,210 ($0.08 million), Ganbare!! Robocon (Toei) NEW
11 (09) ¥x7,186,400 ($x68,000), -45%, ¥x50,276,700 ($0.05 million), 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (Gaga) WK2

Note: Warner Bros. is reporting Dunkirk's re-release figures into its former cumulative total from 2017, not separate.

A slower weekend due to no wide openers, besides the re-release of Dunkirk (and it was barely wide), but that's also pretty normal for the pre-Obon Festival weekend in many past years. Every weekend for the remainder of August has one or more very wide release, so look for August to deliver.

>From Today, It's My Turn! achieved its third-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, selling an additional 231,000 admissions to bring its 17-day admissions above 2 million at 2.08 million. The film slowed down a little, but continues to put up very impressive numbers. At its current pace, and accounting for the Obon Festival holiday period next week, it's on track to reach the ¥4 billion ($35-40 million) milestone. But if it can really deliver over the upcoming holiday period due to fewer blockbusters in release/releasing compared to past years, it might be able to that ¥5 billion ($45 million+) blockbuster milestone back in play.

>The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess held well in second place, selling 189,000 admissions in its sophomore frame, bringing its 11-day admissions up to 1.13 million. I expect the film to play very well over the Obon Festival holiday frame, certainly being the #1 choice among adult/older audiences, and expect it to exceed the ¥3 billion ($25-30 million) milestone. Remember, the film opened higher than its predecessor last weekend and is very likely to outgross it as well. Very impressive given the circumstances.

>The three Hayao Miyazaki re-releases are still chugging along nicely. However, this could be their last week to post respectable figures since every weekend moving forward has one or more very wide openers, which will take the screens/showtimes they've been able to take advantage of. Still, the Obon Festival holiday period should be good to them, so both Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke may still have that ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone in their futures.

Next weekend sees the release of the previously postponed Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur, so look for it to provide the box-office a significant boost. If audiences come out for it like they do every single year, it could have the biggest opening weekend of 2020 so far.

[charlie Jatinder]

Spirited Away Japan (Re-release)

 

Week 0: $0.25mn

Week 1: $1.80mn

Week 2: $1.74mn

Week 3: $1.49mn

Week 4: $1.16mn

Week 5: $0.65mn

Week 6: $0.53mn

 

Total: $7.62mn

 

$8.5mn full run.

[charlie Jatinder]

Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur $1.1-1.15 million opening day. Weekend I expect $4.8-5mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

Doraemon $3.5mn weekend $4.7mn total.

Edited August 13, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Since Japan is almost back to normalcy, I wished Mulan would have released here but considering they have D+, so it mostly will go to D+.

[TigerPaw]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since Japan is almost back to normalcy, I wished Mulan would have released here but considering they have D+, so it mostly will go to D+.

I heard it will be in theaters in 1st week of October. Saw a weibo comment... anyone here knows?

Edited August 10, 2020 by TigerPaw

[Tower]

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2020

Weekend Actuals (08/08-09):
01 (---) ¥413,233,950 ($3.9 million), 0, ¥551,742,600 ($5.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥218,379,150 ($2.1 million), -21%, ¥3,209,066,200 ($30.3 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK4
03 (02) ¥180,041,900 ($1.7 million), -25%, ¥1,997,277,100 ($18.9 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK3
04 (---) ¥x75,532,690 ($711,000), 0, ¥110,598,710 ($1.0 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (---) ¥x36,528,000 ($344,000), 0, ¥x53,608,800 ($0.5 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) NEW
06 (---) ¥x31,058,200 ($293,000), 0, ¥x46,973,540 ($0.4 million), Hinatazaka 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) NEW
07 (---) ¥x17,850,100 ($168,000), 0, ¥x28,341,150 ($0.3 million), Eyes on Me: The Movie (Avex Entertainment) NEW
08 (03) ¥x15,067,100 ($142,000), -45%, ¥812,738,150 ($7.6 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) WK7
09 (04) ¥x13,269,000 ($125,000), -46%, ¥818,152,150 ($7.7 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) WK7
10 (05) ¥x11,284,600 ($106,000), -43%, ¥677,165,000 ($6.3 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) WK7

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur, the 40th entry in the long-running animated franchise, also celebrating the 50th anniversary of the iconic character, debuted atop the box-office this weekend after being postponed from its original date back in March. The film sold 334,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 377 screens, and sold 630,000 admissions after its first four-days (08/07-10) in release. It's currently Obon Festival, so its total as of Monday was released.

As I've said, this opening weekend is on the low-end of the franchise, but given theater capacity restrictions in the busier prefectures, it's satisfactory result. And given said theater capacity restrictions, I don't believe the opening itself is worrisome by any means, especially when you consider its four-day total was almost double its opening weekend figure. Even if we assume a typical run for the film, it'll get close to ¥3 billion ($25-30 million), but I believe it'll be noticeably leggier than the average Doraemon film, and would expect a total closer to ¥3.5-4 billion ($35-40 million). Its performance will be important to track for the potential of future releases targeting families/young children.

>From Today, It's My Turn! held very well in its fourth weekend selling a further 167,000 admissions to bring its cumulative 25-day total (Monday included) above ¥3.3 billion ($31.1 million+) on 2.62 million admissions. It's going to get close to (may even reach) the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion ($45-50 million) and near 4 million admissions. So... a blockbuster performance is still doable in the market despite theater capacity limits in place. A ¥5 billion total is about the equivalent of a film grossing $250 million in the U.S.

>The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess settled for third in its third weekend, selling an additional 126,000 admissions, bringing its cumulative 19-day total (Monday included) over ¥2 billion ($19 million+) on 1.53 million admissions. It's likely to exceed the ¥3 billion ($30 million) milestone, surpassing its predecessor's ¥2.97 billion ($27.2 million) total.

>Grand Blue probably could have opened a bit better, but it did earn Warner Bros. their best debut in the market since Birds of Prey, so there's that to consider. They'll have a lot more to celebrate next month though when Tenet opens.

>Hayao Miyazaki's three classics in re-release managed to stay in the Top 10 in their seventh weekends of re-release. All three experienced large declines due to losing screens/showtimes to all the new openers. I don't believe Spirited Away nor Princess Mononoke will reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone after-all, but their performances (as well as Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind's) have been stellar regardless. Re-releases are rare in the market, and I can't recall off-hand of any being able to earn near, let alone more than, ¥1 billion (Titanic's 3D re-release was the closest I think) in modern times (2000-), so they're likely among the best of the best.

[Tower]

Obon Festival 2020 - Daily Estimates (08/10-14):

Monday (08/10): Mountain Day (National Holiday)
¥210 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥761 million ($7.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) Day 4
¥142 million ($1.3 million), +135%, ¥3.35 billion ($31.5 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) Day 25
¥x93 million ($876,000), +137%, ¥2.09 billion ($19.7 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Princess (Toho) Day 19
¥x30 million ($283,000), 0, ¥141 million ($1.3 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros) Day 4
¥x13 million ($122,000), 0, ¥x66 million ($0.6 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) Day 4
¥x10 million ($x94,000), 0, ¥x57 million ($0.5 million), Hinatazaki 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) Day 4
¥x8 million ($x75,000), +52%, ¥821 million ($7.7 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) Day 46
¥x8 million ($x75,000), +39%, ¥826 million ($7.8 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) Day 46
¥x7 million ($x66,000), +67%, ¥684 million ($6.4 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) Day 46
¥x6 million ($x56,000), +145%, ¥120 million ($1.1 million), Secret Heroine Phantomirage! The Movie (Kadokawa) Day 18

 

 

Tuesday (08/11):
¥145 million ($1.4 million), 0, ¥906 million ($8.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) Day 5
¥116 million ($1.1 million), +136%, ¥3.47 billion ($32.6 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) Day 26
¥x72 million ($678,000), +88%, ¥2.16 billion ($20.4 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Princess (Toho) Day 20
¥x22 million ($207,000), 0, ¥163 million ($1.5 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros) Day 5
¥x9 million ($x85,000), 0, ¥x66 million ($0.6 million), Hinatazaki 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) Day 5
¥x7 million ($x66,000), 0, ¥x73 million ($0.7 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) Day 5
¥x7 million ($x66,000), +12%, ¥828 million ($7.8 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) Day 47
¥x6 million ($x56,000), +07%, ¥832 million ($7.8 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) Day 47
¥x5 million ($x47,000), +21%, ¥689 million ($6.5 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) Day 47
¥x4 million ($x38,000), +81%, ¥124 million ($1.1 million), Secret Heroine Phantomirage! The Movie (Kadokawa) Day 19

 

 

Wednesday (08/12): Ladies' Day
¥170 million ($1.6 million), 0, ¥1.08 billion ($10.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) Day 6
¥138 million ($1.3 million), +97%, ¥3.61 billion ($33.9 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) Day 27
¥x90 million ($844,000), +58%, ¥2.25 billion ($21.2 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Princess (Toho) Day 21
¥x40 million ($375,000), 0, ¥x40 million ($0.4 million), Tapestry (Toho) NEW
¥x21 million ($197,000), 0, ¥184 million ($1.7 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros) Day 6
¥x8 million ($x75,000), 0, ¥x74 million ($0.7 million), Hinatazaki 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) Day 6
¥x8 million ($x75,000), 0, ¥x81 million ($0.8 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) Day 6
¥x7 million ($x66,000), +01%, ¥835 million ($7.9 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) Day 48
¥x7 million ($x66,000), -01%, ¥839 million ($7.9 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) Day 48
¥x6 million ($x56,000), +09%, ¥695 million ($6.6 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) Day 48
 

[marveldcfox]

How poorly did WAR perform in Japan?

[Tower]

Obon Festival 2020 - Daily Estimates (08/10-14):

Thursday (08/13):
¥150 million ($1.4 million), 0, ¥1.23 billion ($11.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) Day 7
¥135 million ($1.3 million), +151%, ¥3.75 billion ($35.2 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) Day 28
¥x91 million ($853,000), +138%, ¥2.34 billion ($22.1 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Princess (Toho) Day 22
¥x22 million ($205,000), 0, ¥206 million ($1.9 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros) Day 7
¥x9 million ($x84,000), +33%, ¥844 million ($8.0 million), Princess Mononoke [1997 re-release] (Toho) Day 49
¥x9 million ($x84,000), +39%, ¥848 million ($8.0 million), Spirited Away [2001 re-release] (Toho) Day 49
¥x8 million ($x75,000), +54%, ¥703 million ($6.7 million), Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind [1984 re-release] (Toho) Day 49
¥x7 million ($x75,000), 0, ¥x81 million ($0.8 million), Hinatazaki 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) Day 7
¥x7 million ($x66,000), 0, ¥x88 million ($0.8 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) Day 7
¥x4 million ($x38,000), +111%, ¥133 million ($1.2 million), Secret Heroine Phantomirage! The Movie (Kadokawa) Day 21

 

Friday (08/14):
¥175 million ($1.6 million), +27%, ¥1.41 billion ($13.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) Day 8
¥140 million ($1.3 million), +126%, ¥3.89 billion ($36.5 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) Day 29
¥125 million ($1.2 million), 0, ¥125 million ($1.2 million), Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku) NEW
¥x92 million ($860,000), +99%, ¥2.43 billion ($23.0 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of Princess (Toho) Day 23
¥x90 million ($841,000), 0, ¥x90 million ($0.8 million), Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho) NEW
¥x21 million ($196,000), -33%, ¥227 million ($2.1 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros) Day 8
¥x10 million ($x93,000), 0, ¥x10 million ($0.09 million), Toei Manga Festival (Toei) NEW
¥x9 million ($x84,000), 0, ¥x9 million ($0.08 million), Inception [2010 re-release] (Warner Bros.) NEW
¥x8 million ($x75,000), -06%, ¥x89 million ($0.8 million), Hinatazaki 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) Day 8
¥x6 million ($x56,000), -61%, ¥x94 million ($0.9 million), Ultraman Ginga S (Shochiku) Day 8

 

Obon Festival 2020 Recap:

Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur performed very well over the past five days as expected (and increasing Friday-to-Friday is very impressive), and earned around 2.5x more than its opening weekend. I never doubted it, and believe it could reach ¥4 billion ($35-40 million). This would be about 20% lower than the last couple films in the franchise, but with the change in its release date, and potential audience loss from COVID-19 concerned parents, it'd be a more than acceptable result. It'd even be inside the top 10 grossing films in the 40 film series, and could approach the franchise's top 5 films.

From Today, It's My Turn! continues to be a little beast of a film, and its chances of reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion (~$50 million) have gone way up thanks to its performance this past week. It would need a really crappy upcoming weekend to miss the mark now.

The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess continues to post good numbers, and is nearly guaranteed to outgross its predecessor's ¥2.97 billion total and exceed ¥3 billion (~$30 million).

Solid first day for Yowamushi Pedal and Love Me, Love Me Not. They just opened so we don't really have an idea of where they'll be heading, but their opening days are strong enough under normal conditions to guarantee a total above ¥1 billion ($10 million) at least. ¥1.5/2 billion ($15-20 million) could also be doable, especially for the former, but we'll have to see what the weekend holds first.

[titanic2187]

It is so rare to see Hollywood film completely left out from the Obon festival field 

[Tower]

(C)TYPE-MOON・ufotable・FSNPC

Weekend Actuals (08/15-16):
01 (---) ¥474,890,600 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥474,890,600 ($4.5 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥286,484,050 ($2.7 million), -31%, ¥1,659,811,650 ($15.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) WK2
03 (02) ¥238,313,600 ($2.2 million), +09%, ¥4,076,089,850 ($38.4 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK5
04 (03) ¥166,430,150 ($1.6 million), -08%, ¥2,605,627,250 ($24.6 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥138,447,330 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥247,875,980 ($2.3 million), Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku) NEW
06 (---) ¥122,561,100 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥205,238,250 ($1.9 million), Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho) NEW
07 (04) ¥x43,873,320 ($412,000), -42%, ¥287,870,110 ($2.7 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros.) WK2
08 (---) ¥x23,542,900 ($221,000), 0, ¥x23,542,900 ($0.2 million), Inception [2010 re-release] (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (06) ¥x18,027,680 ($169,000), -42%, ¥121,851,740 ($1.1 million), Hinatazaka 46 Documentary: Debut After 3-Years (Independent) WK2
10 (---) ¥x14,320,640 ($134,000), 0, ¥x24,640,400 ($0.2 million), Toei Manga Festival 2020 (Toei) NEW

Obon Festival 2020 didn't disappoint: The Top 10 this weekend earned ¥1.526 billion ($14.3 million), making it the biggest weekend at the box-office since January 11-12th.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song, originally scheduled back in March, debuted atop the box-office over the weekend, selling a very impressive 274,017 admissions across just 156 screens. The final film in the trilogy earned the second biggest opening weekend of 2020 in revenue, and came just 1% shy (2,778 admissions) of opening higher than its predecessor. The franchise is incredibly frontloaded due to appealing exclusively to its fanbase, but should still be able to exceed ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur slipped to second place, selling a further 230,000 admissions in its sophomore frame, bringing its ten-day admissions up to 1.39 million. The 40th entry in the long-running franchise (celebrating its 50th anniversary this year!) did great business over the Obon Festival weekdays, but did experienced a notable drop over the weekend frame. It still has another week or two of summer vacation dailies, so I believe it'll still reach ¥3 billion (~$30 million), but anything more is unlikely due to opening in August versus its traditional March slot.

>From Today, It's My Turn! simply needed a good hold this weekend to make achieving the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion (~$50 million) likely, but it actually increased instead, selling an additional 185,000 admissions in its fifth-weekend of release. And after 31-days in release, it has sold a remarkable 3.22 million admissions. It's now practically locked to exceed ¥5 billion (~$50 million) and will sell over 4 million admissions. A huge success for Toho, and certainly a welcomed blockbuster for the box-office.

>The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess dropped to fourth place, selling 119,000 admissions over its fourth-weekend of release, bringing its 25-day admissions up to 1.92 million. The second film based on the TV drama continues to do what it needs to outgross its predecessor's ¥2.97 billion total, and will do so earlier than expected (probably in week 6). Expect a total around ¥3.2 billion ($30 million).

>Yowamushi Pedal, the live-action adaptation of the anime/manga series, rounded out the Top 5 in its debut, selling 105,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 339 screens, and selling 195,030 admissions over its first three-days in release. The weekend figures themselves are average at best, but the 3-day results are pretty good. It's likely to reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone.

>Love Me, Love Me Not misses out on a Top 5 debut, selling 98,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 303 screens, and selling 164,047 admissions over its first three-days in release. Similar to Yowamushi Pedal, the weekend itself is mediore, but the 3-day total is decent. Its chances of reaching the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone isn't as good, but it has a fair shot of making it.

Overall, great weekend! There have been a couple weekends since theaters reopened nationwide that made the box-office somewhat exciting again, but until this weekend, it's been limited to one or two films. This is the first weekend that finally looks like a normal weekend, even if it's missing a couple big films that got postponed from July.

[Tower]

(C)2020映画『糸』製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (08/22-23):
01 (---) ¥234,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥328,601,400 ($3.1 million), Tapestry (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥210,325,900 ($2.0 million), -56%, ¥960,398,100 ($9.1 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex) WK2
03 (02) ¥202,957,900 ($1.9 million), -29%, ¥2,195,713,950 ($20.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) WK3
04 (---) ¥162,690,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥216,137,030 ($2.0 million), Onward (Disney) NEW
05 (03) ¥154,750,100 ($1.5 million), -35%, ¥4,528,705,100 ($42.7 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK6
06 (04) ¥108,157,600 ($1.0 million), -35%, ¥2,928,636,450 ($27.1 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK5
07 (06) ¥x73,086,800 ($691,000), -40%, ¥447,771,300 ($4.2 million), Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho) WK2
08 (05) ¥x54,073,840 ($511,000), -61%, ¥423,850,460 ($4.0 million), Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku) WK2
09 (---) ¥x37,766,300 ($357,000), 0, ¥x37,766,300 ($0.4 million), Given: The Movie (Aniplex) NEW
10 (07) ¥x25,735,640 ($243,000), -41%, ¥369,104,870 ($3.5 million), Grand Blue (Warner Bros.) WK3

Note: Weekend drops are a bit higher than usual due to coming out of the Obon Festival holiday period.

>Tapestry opened atop the box-office in its debut weekend, selling a solid 171,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 350 screens, and has sold 242,709 admissions after its first three-days in release (plus previews from two-weeks ago). Pretty good start, and since romantic films typically have good legs, we can probably expect a finish around ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million), or possibly a tad higher.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song drops to second place with an expected large drop, however, its second weekend hold is better than both its predecessors, as is its second weekend gross. And despite a slightly lower opening than the second film of the trilogy, its two-week total is now ahead by 1.4%. The second film grossed ¥1.67 billion, so that'll be the number to beat as we can expect a similar, though probably slightly higher, finish. The final film of the trilogy will also be receiving 4DX screenings next month.

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur holds steady as it slipped to third place in its third-weekend of release, selling an additional 164,000 admissions to bring its cumulative admissions after 17-days in release up to 1.84 million. The 40th entry in the long-running series has one week left of Summer vacation dailies, and it really needs to make the most of them as weekdays for family films plummet in September. As such, it'll be aiming for a finish at the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone, but will certainly need a couple strong weekend holds next month to reach it.

>Onward debuts in fourth place, selling 118,863 admissions over the weekend frame across 523 screens, and sold 159,535 admissions after its first three-days in release. No spinning this one, it's a disappointing result for Disney, certainly not the way they wanted to get restarted in the market. But it's not entirely all bad news, as this debut is STILL higher than Brave's, so it's not Pixar's lowest-opener in the market. The film will be aiming to reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, and while it should get there, it's not guaranteed by opening so late in the Summer.

>From Today, It's My Turn! continues its amazing run, and after six-weeks in release, has sold 3.59 million admissions and will probably finish just above 4 million admissions. As for a final total, that'll be good enough to also get it above the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion+ (~$50 million), meaning that Summer 2020 won't go without a blockbuster after all!

>The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess is now a mere ¥43 million away from outgrossing its predecessor, which it will do in just a few days (probably on Wednesday). It's also about to exceed the ¥3 billion milestone, and still has enough in the tank to finish decently above that mark as well. Expect a very good finish around ¥3.2 billion ($30 million).

[Tower]

(C)2020「事故物件 恐い間取り」製作委員会

Weekend Estimates (08/29-30):
01 (---) ¥335,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥430,000,000 ($4.0 million), Stigmatized Properties (Shochiku) NEW
02 (03) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), -09%, ¥2,480,000,000 ($23.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) WK4
03 (01) ¥184,000,000 ($1.7 million), -21%, ¥800,000,000 ($7.5 million), Tapestry (Toho) WK2
04 (02) ¥137,000,000 ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($11.6 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex) WK3
05 (04) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -21%, ¥455,000,000 ($4.2 million), Onward (Disney) WK2
06 (05) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), -17%, ¥4,780,000,000 ($45.0 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK7
07 (06) ¥102,000,000 ($1.0 million), -06%, ¥3,165,000,000 ($29.4 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK6
08 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($560,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million), Blue, Painful, and Brittle (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x54,000,000 ($505,000), -25%, ¥580,000,000 ($5.4 million), Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho) WK3
10 (08) ¥x42,000,000 ($395,000), -21%, ¥515,000,000 ($4.9 million), Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku) WK3

Very nice weekend to close out August.

>Stigmatized Properties delivers a good opening weekend, and certainly a welcomed one for distributor Shochiku as it likely more than doubled their previous highest opener this year. We can expect a total between ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million) from this debut. Very good.

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur experienced an excellent hold on its fourth weekend, declining in the single-digits based on estimates. Since schools started back early this year, its weekdays were low heading into the weekend, so the great weekend hold is understandable. Its chances of reaching the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone have gone up greatly as a result, and if it can achieve one or two more holds close to this in the coming weeks, then it'll likely get there.

>Tapestry might have edge out Doraemon for second place in revenue, but it'll be third in admissions. It enjoyed a great second weekend either way, and is very likely to exceed ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) now. In fact, it might make a run at the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song continues to outperform its predecessor despite the slightly lower opening, and is likely to become the highest-grossing film in the trilogy. Its predecessor grossed ¥1.67 billion, so the finale should be aiming for ¥1.7 billion ($16 million) or a bit more. And let's see if Aniplex wants to make a play for ¥2 billion (~$20 million) following its 4DX expansion next month.

>Onward held well, but the combination of opening at the end of summer vacation along with its low-opening last week is going to keep its eventual total rather low. The good news is that if it can deliver another hold like this, or better, next week, then it's probably going to outgross Brave and reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone to avoid becoming Pixar's lowest-grossing film in the market.

>From Today, It's My Turn! continues its strong performance, and is now just a couple weeks away from reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion (~$50 million). Thanks to its overperformance, Summer 2020 (and perhaps the 2020 calendar year itself) won't have to go without a blockbuster film.

>The Confidence Man JP: The Episode of the Princess enjoyed the best hold in the Top 10, and outgrossed its predecessor before even going into its sixth-weekend. It's been holding so well these past couple of weeks, that a total of ¥3.5 billion ($33 million or so) is looking likely. Despite performing under capacity restrictions due to the pandemic, it'll have increased 15-20% over its predecessor. From Today, It's My Turn! is the film of the summer given it's going to reach blockbuster status, but The Confidence Man JP 2 is a close second.

[Tower]

(C)2020「事故物件 恐い間取り」製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (08/29-30):
01 (---) ¥358,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥465,550,000 ($4.4 million), Stigmatized Properties (Shochiku) NEW
02 (01) ¥190,271,450 ($1.8 million), -19%, ¥893,876,550 ($8.4 million), Tapestry (Toho) WK2
03 (03) ¥186,135,300 ($1.7 million), -08%, ¥2,494,795,400 ($23.4 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) WK4
04 (04) ¥127,057,940 ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥461,231,920 ($4.3 million), Onward (Disney) WK2
05 (05) ¥126,977,300 ($1.2 million), -18%, ¥4,792,071,800 ($45.1 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK7
06 (02) ¥122,679,400 ($1.2 million), -42%, ¥1,212,525,300 ($11.5 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex) WK3
07 (06) ¥100,442,000 ($953,000), -07%, ¥3,175,668,800 ($29.5 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK6
08 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($711,000), 0, ¥105,490,900 ($1.0 million), Blue, Painful, and Brittle (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x54,489,950 ($517,000), -25%, ¥586,759,850 ($5.5 million), Love Me, Love Me Not (Toho) WK3
10 (08) ¥x42,501,300 ($403,000), -21%, ¥524,004,370 ($5.0 million), Yowamushi Pedal (Shochiku) WK3

Strong weekend to close out August.

>Stigmatized Properties debuted atop the box-office, delivering Shochiku their best opener of the year by a massive margin (147% higher). The film sold an impressive 263,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 335 screens, and sold 343,727 admissions over its first three-days in release. This is a very good opening, and we can expect a total between ¥2-2.5 billion ($20-25 million) from it.

>Tapestry slips to second place in its sophomore frame, earning a great hold by selling a further 139,000 admissions over the weekend, bringing its 10-day admissions up to 637,000. Its second weekend was pretty impressive, but its weekdays were more so and could end up helping the film finish near the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone.

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur experienced an excellent hold on its fourth weekend, selling an additional 151,000 admissions, bringing its 24-day admissions up to 2.08 million. Its chances of reaching the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone have gone up greatly as a result of this weekend, and if it can achieve one or two more holds close to this in the coming weeks, then it'll likely get there.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song continues to outperform its predecessor despite the slightly lower opening, and is likely to become the highest-grossing film in the trilogy. Its predecessor grossed ¥1.67 billion, so the finale should be aiming for ¥1.7 billion ($16 million) or a bit more. And let's see if Aniplex wants to make a play for ¥2 billion (~$20 million) following its 4DX expansion next month.

>Onward held well, selling 93,000 admissions in its second weekend to bring its 10-day admissions up to 340,000. But the combination of opening at the end of summer vacation, along with its low-opening last week, is going to keep its eventual total rather low. The good news is that if it can deliver another hold like this, or better, next week, then it's probably going to outgross Brave and reach the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone to avoid becoming Pixar's lowest-grossing film in the market.

>From Today, It's My Turn! continues its strong performance, selling an additional 98,000 admissions over its seventh-weekend of release, which brings its 45-day admissions up to an incredible 3.79 million. It's now just a couple weeks away from reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion (~$50 million) and breaking 4 million admissions.. Thanks to its over-performance, Summer 2020 (and perhaps the 2020 calendar year itself) won't have to go without a blockbuster film.

>The Confidence Man JP: The Episode of the Princess enjoyed the best hold in the Top 10, and has outgrossed its predecessor. It's been holding so well these past couple of weeks, that a total of ¥3.5 billion ($33 million or so) is looking likely. Despite performing under capacity restrictions due to the pandemic, it'll have increased 15-20% over its predecessor. From Today, It's My Turn! is the film of the summer given it's going to reach blockbuster status, but The Confidence Man JP 2 is a close second.

[Tower]

(C)2020「事故物件 恐い間取り」製作委員会

Weekend Estimates (09/05-06):
01 (01) ¥243,000,000 ($2.3 million), -32%, ¥1,005,000,000 ($9.5 million), Stigmatized Properties (Shochiku) WK2
02 (02) ¥133,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥1,235,000,000 ($11.6 million), Tapestry (Toho) WK3
03 (03) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥2,675,000,000 ($25.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (Toho) WK5
04 (06) ¥x98,000,000 ($920,000), -20%, ¥1,390,000,000 ($13.2 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (Aniplex) WK3
05 (05) ¥x81,000,000 ($760,000), -36%, ¥4,945,000,000 ($46.6 million), From Today, It's My Turn! (Toho) WK8
06 (04) ¥x74,000,000 ($695,000), -42%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.6 million), Onward (Disney) WK3
07 (07) ¥x65,000,000 ($610,000), -35%, ¥3,350,000,000 ($31.1 million), The Confidence Man JP: Episode of the Princess (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x55,000,000 ($515,000), 0, ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million), Documentary of Keyakizaka46: Our Truth or Dare (Toho Video Division) NEW
09 (08) ¥x48,000,000 ($450,000), -38%, ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million), Blue, Painful, and Brittle (Toho) WK2
10 (---) ¥x40,000,000 ($375,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million), Cells at Work!! The Return of the Strongest Enemy (Aniplex) NEW

Pretty good weekend to begin September. No notable opener, but the first weekend of September rarely has a notable debut anyway as it's the first post-Summer/Summer Vacation weekend.

>Stigmatized Properties achieves a second weekend atop the box-office, and delivered the necessary hold that should get it above the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone.

>Tapestry continues to do well for Toho, and has locked up reaching the ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) mark. It should finish around ¥1.7/1.8 billion ($16/17 million).

>Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur held well in its first full post-Summer weekend, and is still on track to reach the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone. The 40th entry in the franchise will finish 30-40% below the last several films in the series, but it'll also end up above the lower-tier films as well. All in all, I believe it's performed well outside of its traditional March release and having to perform under a 50% capacity limit in urban areas, which is especially difficult for families.

>Onward experiences a rough third weekend decline, and as a result... might not outgross Brave now and end up as Pixar's lowest-grossing film in the market. There is still a small chance it beats Brave to avoid that fate (Silver Week in mid-Sept. will help some), but it's very unlikely.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song received a 4DX expansion this weekend, so it enjoyed a good hold. It could have even held a little better than I estimated since 4DX tickets are very expensive. Things are still looking good for it to outgross its predecessor and become the highest-grossing film of the trilogy.

>From Today, It's My Turn! is now less than ¥100 million away from reaching the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion, and depending on the actual from this weekend, is looking to reach the mark on Thursday or Friday this week. It seemed very doubtful that Summer 2020 would have a blockbuster film, but this film really delivered. Expect it to finish around ¥5.3 billion ($50/51 million) and 4.1/4.2 million admissions.