JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[PKMLover]

48 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

No wonder DS is a mega-hit, there is a song attached to it. Japanese can't live without song right

Music is one of some factors contributing in the success of big movies in Japan

[PKMLover]

Corpse:

Very good (great/amazing) numbers from Tuesday so far. As of 2PM, it's only down 7% versus last Tuesday, and it's only trailing yesterday (Monday, the strongest weekday generally) by about 18%.

Could be looking at a second Tuesday between ¥475-500 million ($4.5-4.8 million) if it keeps this pace throughout the evening. The weekdays continue to be as high as the first Saturday or Sunday figures of many of the biggest openers.

This second Tuesday, its 12th day in release, would even be a candidate for a Top 10 spot (granted, at the bottom) of Biggest Opening Weekends in any given year, as having ten films with opening weekends above ¥500 million is about the average.

Edited October 27, 2020 by PKMLover

[Tower]

(C)吾峠呼世晴／集英社・アニプレックス・ufotable

Weekend Actuals (10/24-25):
01 (01) ¥3,041,448,750 ($29.1 million), -9%, ¥10,754,232,550 ($102.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK2
02 (---) ¥130,201,500 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥176,201,050 ($1.7 million), Your Eyes Tell (Gaga) NEW
03 (02) ¥120,003,700 ($1.2 million), -14%, ¥377,166,510 ($3.6 million), Twiceborn (Nikkatsu) WK2
04 (03) ¥x70,973,700 ($675,000), -34%, ¥2,429,956,710 ($23.1 million), Tenet (Warner Bros.) WK6
05 (05) ¥x57,697,800 ($550,000), -25%, ¥1,586,627,000 ($15.2 million), Violet Evergarden: The Movie (Shochiku) WK6
06 (04) ¥x56,560,600 ($539,000), -27%, ¥958,703,900 ($9.1 million), The Asadas! (Toho) WK4
07 (06) ¥x23,019,240 ($219,000), -33%, ¥131,468,170 ($1.3 million), Wife of a Spy (Bitters End) WK2
08 (---) ¥x22,000,000 ($210,000), 0, ¥x34,483,660 ($0.3 million), Living in Your Sky (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (07) ¥x19,891,500 ($190,000), -34%, ¥1,112,906,400 ($10.6 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Rakuga Kingdom and the Four Heroes (Toho) WK7
10 (10) ¥x19,709,060 ($188,000), -28%, ¥531,268,800 ($5.0 million), Midnight Swan (Kino Films) WK5

>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train reigns atop the weekend box-office again. Surprise! Like last weekend, we've been discussing this film in depth and analyzing it enough that there's not much else to say in this post.

>Your Eyes Tell, although a galaxy-sized distance away in second place, had a solid debut for Gaga. It sold 98,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 346 screens; and sold 132,311 admissions in its first three-days in release. It's a stretch to be sure, but it has a slim shot at reaching the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone.

>Tenet continues to hold well, and is going to reach the ¥2.5 billion mark next week. Just in case no one has read this, Tenet is the second highest grossing Nolan film in Japan, only behind Inception. Great performance.

>The Asadas! will exceed the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone before next weekend. This one didn't quite live up to expectations I feel, but it'll still become a fair success.

>Violet Evergarden: The Movie also continues to hold very well, and has doubled the gross of last year's Violet Evergarden film. Quite a tremendous accomplishment there alone, and I wouldn't rule out a final number reaching the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) mark given the late-legs it's having.

The Weekend Top 10 is up what must be a record 226% versus the same weekend last year.

[newbie BO buff]

I tried to put Corpse's daily numbers into Excel, there must be a mistake somewhere because end numbers are not the same. Or is my spreadsheet messed up?

 

Here it is for 11 days:

No	Day	Date	¥ Gross	+/-	¥ Cume Gross	$ Gross	+/-	$ Cume Gross	Admission	+/-	Cume Adm
1	Fri	16-Oct-20	¥1.268.724.700		¥1.268.724.700	$12.000.000		$12.000.000	910.507		910.507
2	Sat	17-Oct-20	¥1.701.723.350	34%	¥2.970.448.050	$16.200.000	35%	$28.200.000	1.270.234	40%	2.180.741
3	Sun	18-Oct-20	¥1.652.669.400	-3%	¥4.623.117.450	$15.700.000	-3%	$43.900.000	1.239.752	-2%	3.420.493
4	Mon	19-Oct-20	¥735.000.000	-56%	¥5.358.117.450	$7.000.000	-55%	$50.900.000	545.000	-56%	3.965.493
5	Tue	20-Oct-20	¥545.000.000	-26%	¥5.903.117.450	$5.100.000	-27%	$56.000.000	395.000	-28%	4.360.493
6	Wed	21-Oct-20	¥635.000.000	17%	¥6.538.117.450	$6.000.000	18%	$62.000.000	505.000	28%	4.865.493
7	Thu	22-Oct-20	¥470.000.000	-26%	¥7.008.117.450	$4.500.000	-25%	$66.500.000	340.000	-33%	5.205.493
8	Fri	23-Oct-20	¥695.000.000	48%	¥7.703.117.450	$6.600.000	47%	$73.100.000	505.000	49%	5.710.493
9	Sat	24-Oct-20	¥1.500.944.600	116%	¥9.204.062.050	$14.300.000	117%	$87.400.000	1.115.182	121%	6.825.675
10	Sun	25-Oct-20	¥1.540.504.150	3%	¥10.744.566.200	$14.700.000	3%	$102.100.000	1.157.654	4%	7.983.329
11	Mon	26-Oct-20	¥580.000.000	-62%	¥11.324.566.200	$5.500.000	-63%	$107.600.000	435.000	-62%	8.418.329

[charlie Jatinder]

Guess ¥395mn/$3.75mn today. -28% last week. Total ¥11.76Bn/$112mn.

[LPLC]

Guys what are your weekly predictions for Demon Slayer ? Could it approch the record of Frozen and maybe approch $300M ?

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, LPLC said:

Guys what are your weekly predictions for Demon Slayer ? Could it approch the record of Frozen and maybe approch $300M ?

Frozen isn't the record. Spirited Away and Titanic are record.

[The Gotham Bank]

Frozen's gross is pretty much the floor for DS at the moment. If it finishes lower than that I would honestly be disappointed.

[The Gotham Bank]

Courtesy of Corpse: "Wednesday certainly delivered. A couple hours left in the day, but few theaters are open after 10pm on the weekdays.

It's up about 43% versus yesterday, and only down 19% versus last week. Second biggest Wednesday ever (openers and holidays included) after its own first Wednesday last week. Its 13th day alone, a regular old weekday, would probably give it a spot on the Top 10 Biggest Opening Weekends chart in any given year. I'll have the estimate and other updates after the day fully concludes."

[The Gotham Bank]

Its 3rd weekend is looking to be excellent  as well.

[LPLC]

What are you expected for Demon Slayer by Sunday ? $150M possible ?

 

And what are you expecting for Demon Slayer's box office lifetime ? Something between $250M and $300M ?

 

Iy'w very good to see during this crisis that box office records can be broken in some countries, the Japan people must love this anime to go and see it so many during this period. I didn't even know the existence of Demon Slayer before that. 

 

I hope that cinemas in Japan will not be closed, I want that movie beat Frozen and Spirited away 

[PKMLover]

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥470,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥695,000,000 ($6.6 million) / 505,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥580,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 435,000 *est.*
10/27 - Tues.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000 *est.*
10/28 - Wed.: ¥505,000,000 ($4.8 million) / 405,000 *est.*

13-Day Cumulative Total: ¥12,229,232,550 ($116.4 million) / 9,108,442 *est.*

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

13-Day Cumulative Total: ¥12,229,232,550 ($116.4 million)

 

Taking a guess, we're probably looking at something like this through November 1st....

17-Day Cumulative Total: ¥15,200,000,000 ($145.5 million)

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by VenomXXR

[PKMLover]

¥25 billion (~$240 million+), or ¥26.21 billion if you will in order to become the #2 film all-time in the market, is the almost guaranteed target. It's already half-way there after day 13. It will need to experience some pretty sharp declines, and very soon, in order to miss this mark.

¥30 billion (~$280 million+), or ¥30.81 billion in order to surpass Spirited Away to become the #1 film all-time in the market, is the goal. Its chances remain over 50% likely to happen. I think it will get there, but it's too early to say with near certainty.

But higher is also possible. It's currently enjoying regular sub-20% declines, and dropping 20% on average on a weekly basis gets it around ¥35 billion (~$325-350 million).

And I wouldn't anticipate theaters to close or anything. The opposite is occurring, where restrictions were fully lifted back in September allowing theaters to resume 100% capacity (after being at 50% back in June). Japan is still only adding ~500 or so cases a day and ranks 51st in the world in overall cases (still under 100,000).

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Taking a guess, we're probably looking at something like this through November 1st....

18-Day Cumulative Total: ¥15,200,000,000 ($145.5 million)

 

Seems like a good conservative guess though Nov 1, but that will be only 17 days, not 18.

[charlie Jatinder]

Day	Date	Daily	To Date	% +/- YD / LW*		Daily in $	To Date in $	Day
Fri	16 Oct 20	¥1,268,725,000	¥1,268,725,000			$12,037,200	$12,037,200	1
Sat	17 Oct 20	¥1,701,723,000	¥2,970,448,000			$16,145,400	$28,182,600	2
Sun	18 Oct 20	¥1,652,670,000	¥4,623,118,000	-2.88%		$15,680,000	$43,862,600	3
Mon	19 Oct 20	¥765,350,000	¥5,388,468,000	-53.69%		$7,254,500	$51,117,100	4
Tue	20 Oct 20	¥548,475,000	¥5,936,943,000	-28.34%		$5,193,900	$56,311,000	5
Wed	21 Oct 20	¥620,000,000	¥6,556,943,000	13.04%		$5,938,700	$62,249,700	6
Thu	22 Oct 20	¥464,840,000	¥7,021,783,000	-25.03%		$4,435,500	$66,685,200	7
Fri	23 Oct 20	¥691,000,000	¥7,712,783,000	48.65%	-45.54%	$6,599,800	$73,285,000	8
Sat	24 Oct 20	¥1,500,945,000	¥9,213,728,000	117.21%	-11.80%	$14,335,700	$87,620,700	9
Sun	25 Oct 20	¥1,540,504,000	¥10,754,232,000	2.64%	-6.79%	$14,713,500	$102,334,200	10
Mon	26 Oct 20	¥609,000,000	¥11,363,232,000	-60.47%	-20.43%	$5,800,000	$108,134,200	11
Tue	27 Oct 20	¥393,000,000	¥11,756,232,000	-35.47%	-28.35%	$3,753,600	$111,887,800	12
Wed	28 Oct 20	¥503,000,000	¥12,259,232,000	27.99%	-18.87%	$4,822,600	$116,710,400	13

 

Seems like 185k usual locations today, that will be a really nice 22% weekly drop. Week 2 overall will be ¥5.6Bn, just 20% down from Week 1. 25% weekly drops from here will take it to ¥29.5Bn. It needs 22.5% weekly drop for taking down SA, which I still think is hard.

Edited October 29, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[The Gotham Bank]

Under 20% drop for Thursday it seems and I'm absolutely amazed at how well this is holding after the monstrous opening.

[ymblcza]

Last thursday mimorin missed some showings, the correct number for last thursday should be around 250k, today is 192k with 23% drop, still very good tho

[PKMLover]

Saturday seating and showtimes have been released from the usual locations (~70% of the market):

1st Saturday: 1,336,504 [267/6,170]
2nd Saturday: 1,210,084 [261/5,770] *6 locations didn't process*
3rd Saturday: 1,138,489 [267/5,534]

For a third straight weekend now, it has broken the previous widest release record. Frozen II held the record on its opening weekend with 1.08 million seats and 3,770 showings on its first Saturday. It's the only other film to have exceeded 1 million available seats at the usual locations.

The average theater is also still showing it 21x a day. Before Demon Slayer achieved an average theater showing over 20 (three weekends in a row now!), the previous known record was ~12-14x a day (Frozen II at 14), which was the pretty common range for most major blockbusters.

[Legion Again]

Last Sat it was down about 9% in seats, 12% in ¥, just 3% fall in occupancy rate. This weekend the occupancy rate should fall more, but being just 6% down in seats seems like a great sign. If it can fall better than 20% 150M is still looking good.

Edited October 30, 2020 by WandaLegion