JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Legion Again]

On 10/25/2020 at 10:37 PM, WandaLegion said:

150 or FLOP

Sorry guys, looks like it’s a FLOP   

 

 

[PKMLover]

Fastest Films to ¥15 billion:

17 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
36 - Spirited Away (2001)
38 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
50 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
51 - Your Name. (2016)
53 - Frozen (2014)
58 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
60 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
76 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
94 - Ponyo (2008)
103 - Avatar (2009)
152 - Titanic (1997)

Going ahead and posting this now too, since it'll break ¥15 billion tomorrow, its 17th-day in release, getting there more than twice as quick as the previous record. All the films that have grossed ¥15 billion are included on the list, making Demon Slayer the twelfth film in history to reach the very high milestone. And depending on the actual tomorrow, it may surpass Ponyo and Avatar to crack the All-Time Top 10 after just three weeks (or if it misses, it'll get there on Monday).

[The Gotham Bank]

Tomorrow will for sure be higher in admissions but it will be interesting if the same will apply for revenue. 

[charlie Jatinder]

25 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Tomorrow will for sure be higher in admissions but it will be interesting if the same will apply for revenue. 

Need 875k in usual locations for that. Tough but possible.

Edited October 31, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[LPLC]

Could Demon Slayer surpass $185M after his 4th week end and maybe $200M after his 5th week end ?

[The Gotham Bank]

5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Could Demon Slayer surpass $185M after his 4th week end and maybe $200M after his 5th week end ?

[Legion Again]

I wanna see at least 210 by the end of the 5th weekend  

[XXR vs XXR]

Can someone with knowledge of the Japanese market explain WHY this film is getting this kind of box office in Japan? I've heard of Demon Slayer before, but I didn't think it was something insane like what this film is doing. I know markets aren't comparable given how Japan is typically a slow burn, so I can't really say this is like their Endgame or Force Awakens but it seems to be having that kind of crossover impact. 

Edited October 31, 2020 by VenomXXR

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Can someone with knowledge of the Japanese market explain WHY this film is getting this kind of box office in Japan? I've heard of Demon Slayer before, but I didn't think it was something insane like what this film is doing. I know markets aren't comparable given how Japan is typically a slow burn, so I can't really say this is like their Endgame or Force Awakens but it seems to be having that kind of crossover impact. 

 

While i personally am not an expert of the Japanese market, i can explain why Demon Slayer is the property that is posting these numbers.

 

Demon Slayers manga debuted in 2016 on the Weekly Shonen Jump Magazine and was at first succesfull, but not like a phenomenon or so. Then last year the anime series hit and became exactly that phenomenon in Japan and many other countries in the world. The anime is listed on many Top 10 lists of the decade for a reason. And when the anime ended back in September 2019, the manga sales of the series exploded. And like completely exploded.

 

For comparison: The most succesfull manga of all time is One Piece. The most succesfull year to date for the sales of One Piece Volumes in Japan is 2011 with 37 Million.

 

Demon Slayer so far this year alone sold over 75 Million Copies. Let that sink in.

 

So yeah, everyone and their mum in Japan became a fan of Demon Slayer. The anime is re-aring to record viewer numbers despite the series beeing available on streaming plattforms and physical media for quite a while. Its nothing short of a total pop culture sensation in Japan and thats why the Movie exploded in tandem.

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Can someone with knowledge of the Japanese market explain WHY this film is getting this kind of box office in Japan? I've heard of Demon Slayer before, but I didn't think it was something insane like what this film is doing. I know markets aren't comparable given how Japan is typically a slow burn, so I can't really say this is like their Endgame or Force Awakens but it seems to be having that kind of crossover impact. 

It’s one of those kind of unexplainable zeitgeist moments. Japan just went crazy for the whole Demon Slayer franchise in 2020, and this film being an actual continuation of the plot from where the season 1 finally ended vs the usual anime movie noncanon side quest is a huge difference.   
 

I’m comfortable to say that this single market performance is easily better than TFA DOM or any of Endgame’s single market runs 👀

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

I’m comfortable to say that this single market performance is easily better than TFA DOM

I think TFA Dom & UK are crazy. The problem is these markets have high screen presence which make run frontloaded. Japan has a low 375 theaters for 130mn people, so business is spread out.

 

TFA in USA alone, beat Avatar by 26%. In UK it beat Skyfall 20%.

 

That will be achieved by DS, if it does ¥40Bn & ¥38.5Bn respectively.

 

Though one thing to consider is that, in Japan due to almost zero inflation there is disadvantage. DS if beat SA gross, it will also beat its Admission. While TFA didn't beat the footfalls of modern era topper Titanic in those two markets.

 

Comparing two markets run is tough.

 

If have to do, I think just Hollywood market in India will make a good case for Endgame. I don't think more than 100mn people in India watch Hollywood films by any medium. Endgame had 22mn in theater. Endgame beat the previous best by 49% in Gross & 3rd best by (since Infinity War is 2nd) by 72%. In term of initial pace, Endgame was 3.5x no. 3 The Jungle Book in weekend, 4.2x in Week 1. 3 weeks total being 2.7x.

 

In terms of footfalls, the footfall were "not real clear", 0-10% higher than Titanic in 1998.  Coincidentally footfall DS targetting is 22mn. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I wonder, if TENET overperformance is also due to open market as DS is supposedly being helped by lack of competition.

 

I wonder if we could have seen that, if Detective Chinatown in China had released instead of The Eight Hundred.

Edited November 1, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

Yeah, not totally clear how to compare. For me, breaking a 19 year admit record (if it does, not locked yet I guess but looking good) without any help from population growth is pretty nuts.

[PKMLover]

So...... after this weekend (3rd weekend), DS with 15.5B yen and 11.7M admits..... it "just needs" to x2 these number to beat SA....

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like 900k in usual locs today. 

[titanic2187]

At this rate, this movie will pretty here to stay until New Year holiday season and beat SA.

 

In any normal year i would say competition latter in its run will block its way but now DS is slaying at the record pace at the relatively empty market. That is another whole level of advantage.  

[The Gotham Bank]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like 900k in usual locs today. 

Time to hop on the over SA train?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Time to hop on the over SA train?

Yeah I think pretty certain now. Even if we are going 25% weekly drops from here, (which is something Frozen 2 had in December before Xmas), it will have Xmas and New Year bump.

 

Projecting

Date	Weekly	% +/- LW	To Date	Week
Oct 10-16	¥1,268,725,000		¥1,268,725,000	0
Oct 17-23	¥6,444,058,000	407.92%	¥7,712,783,000	1
Oct 24-30	¥5,458,449,000	-15.29%	¥13,171,232,000	2
Oct 31-Nov 06	¥4,850,000,000	-11.15%	¥18,021,232,000	3
Nov 07-13	¥3,000,000,000	-38.14%	¥21,021,232,000	4
Nov 14-20	¥2,400,000,000	-20.00%	¥23,421,232,000	5
Nov 21-27	¥1,920,000,000	-20.00%	¥25,341,232,000	6
Nov 28-Dec 04	¥1,536,000,000	-20.00%	¥26,877,232,000	7
Dec 05-11	¥1,075,200,000	-30.00%	¥27,952,432,000	8
Dec 12-18	¥806,400,000	-25.00%	¥28,758,832,000	9
Dec 19-25	¥927,360,000	15.00%	¥29,686,192,000	10
Dec 26-Jan 01	¥1,298,304,000	40.00%	¥30,984,496,000	11
Jan 02-08	¥1,168,473,600	-10.00%	¥32,152,969,600	12
Jan 09-15	¥701,084,160	-40.00%	¥32,854,053,760	13
Jan 16-22	¥490,758,912	-30.00%	¥33,344,812,672	14
Jan 23-29	¥368,069,184	-25.00%	¥33,712,881,856	15
Jan 30-Feb 05	¥257,648,429	-30.00%	¥33,970,530,285	16
Feb 06-12	¥180,353,900	-30.00%	¥34,150,884,185	17

Thanks to the Exchange rates, it will be crossing $300mn in Japan itself, reaching $325mn perhaps. It will have a good chance at beating Spirited Away worldwide gross for biggest Japanese film in $. Local currency may be tough.

Edited November 1, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[PKMLover]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah I think pretty certain now. Even if we are going 25% weekly drops from here, (which is something Frozen 2 had in December before Xmas), it will have Xmas and New Year bump.

 

Projecting

 

Date	Weekly	% +/- LW	To Date	Week
Oct 10-16	¥1,268,725,000		¥1,268,725,000	0
Oct 17-23	¥6,444,058,000	407.92%	¥7,712,783,000	1
Oct 24-30	¥5,458,449,000	-15.29%	¥13,171,232,000	2
Oct 31-Nov 06	¥4,750,000,000	-12.98%	¥17,921,232,000	3
Nov 07-13	¥3,325,000,000	-30.00%	¥21,246,232,000	4
Nov 14-20	¥2,493,750,000	-25.00%	¥23,739,982,000	5
Nov 21-27	¥1,870,312,500	-25.00%	¥25,610,294,500	6
Nov 28-Dec 04	¥1,402,734,375	-25.00%	¥27,013,028,875	7
Dec 05-11	¥1,052,050,781	-25.00%	¥28,065,079,656	8
Dec 12-18	¥789,038,086	-25.00%	¥28,854,117,742	9
Dec 19-25	¥907,393,799	15.00%	¥29,761,511,541	10
Dec 26-Jan 01	¥1,270,351,318	40.00%	¥31,031,862,859	11
Jan 02-08	¥1,143,316,187	-10.00%	¥32,175,179,046	12
Jan 09-15	¥685,989,712	-40.00%	¥32,861,168,758	13
Jan 16-22	¥480,192,798	-30.00%	¥33,341,361,556	14
Jan 23-29	¥360,144,599	-25.00%	¥33,701,506,155	15
Jan 30-Feb 05	¥252,101,219	-30.00%	¥33,953,607,374	16
Feb 06-12	¥176,470,853	-30.00%	¥34,130,078,227	17

Thanks to the Exchange rates, it will be crossing $300mn in Japan itself, reaching $325mn perhaps. It will have a good chance at beating Spirited Away worldwide gross for biggest Japanese film in $. Local currency may be tough.

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah I think pretty certain now. Even if we are going 25% weekly drops from here, (which is something Frozen 2 had in December before Xmas), it will have Xmas and New Year bump.

 

Projecting

Date	Weekly	% +/- LW	To Date	Week
Oct 10-16	¥1,268,725,000		¥1,268,725,000	0
Oct 17-23	¥6,444,058,000	407.92%	¥7,712,783,000	1
Oct 24-30	¥5,458,449,000	-15.29%	¥13,171,232,000	2
Oct 31-Nov 06	¥4,850,000,000	-11.15%	¥18,021,232,000	3
Nov 07-13	¥3,000,000,000	-38.14%	¥21,021,232,000	4
Nov 14-20	¥2,400,000,000	-20.00%	¥23,421,232,000	5
Nov 21-27	¥1,920,000,000	-20.00%	¥25,341,232,000	6
Nov 28-Dec 04	¥1,536,000,000	-20.00%	¥26,877,232,000	7
Dec 05-11	¥1,075,200,000	-30.00%	¥27,952,432,000	8
Dec 12-18	¥806,400,000	-25.00%	¥28,758,832,000	9
Dec 19-25	¥927,360,000	15.00%	¥29,686,192,000	10
Dec 26-Jan 01	¥1,298,304,000	40.00%	¥30,984,496,000	11
Jan 02-08	¥1,168,473,600	-10.00%	¥32,152,969,600	12
Jan 09-15	¥701,084,160	-40.00%	¥32,854,053,760	13
Jan 16-22	¥490,758,912	-30.00%	¥33,344,812,672	14
Jan 23-29	¥368,069,184	-25.00%	¥33,712,881,856	15
Jan 30-Feb 05	¥257,648,429	-30.00%	¥33,970,530,285	16
Feb 06-12	¥180,353,900	-30.00%	¥34,150,884,185	17

Thanks to the Exchange rates, it will be crossing $300mn in Japan itself, reaching $325mn perhaps. It will have a good chance at beating Spirited Away worldwide gross for biggest Japanese film in $. Local currency may be tough.

Biggest Japanese film WW is Your Name at over $400m