JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

I think ¥50B is not too far from a reasonable “ceiling” though. While keeping in mind that I might take the under on ¥40B for now.

You guys are going very very very optimistic.

 

I don't think ¥40B is even possible with just ¥1350 ATP. SA had 23.5mn admits right, I think that is a good number for ceiling but since there is lack of competition, may be a bit more. Still think ¥35Bn. If next week drop less than 40%, we shall talk.

Edited November 3, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[PKMLover]

From Corpse

Well... unless today slows down (not happening, who are we kidding at this point), then today is quite certain to exceed 1 million admissions. The early morning ticket sales are only trailing two of its days so far (this past Sunday and last Sunday, and only by 15%). A 200%+ (no, I didn't add an extra 0, it's 200%+) increase over last Tuesday is likely.

 

[Legion Again]

45 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You guys are going very very very optimistic.

 

I don't think ¥40B is even possible with just ¥1350 ATP. SA had 23.5mn admits right, I think that is a good number for ceiling but since there is lack of competition, may be a bit more. Still think ¥35Bn. If next week drop less than 40%, we shall talk.

I don’t see why not 30m admits. Or even a bit more. Spirited Away was the max for the century for a long time, but there’s nothing stopping it in principle from getting smashed anymore than DOM’s “70M Saturday cap.”

[Legion Again]

Just now, WandaLegion said:

I don’t see why not 30m admits. Or even a bit more. Spirited Away was the max for the century for a long time, but there’s nothing stopping it in principle from getting smashed anymore than DOM’s “70M Saturday cap.”

To be clear not saying 30m admits should be the avg or expectation, just that it seems totally possible on the high end of things to me.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

don’t see why not 30m admits.

When 30mn admits didn't happen in non-digital era, why should they happen today 

 

If they do happen. That will be HUGE. not relatively to say Korea but Japan.

[Legion Again]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

When 30mn admits didn't happen in non-digital era, why should they happen today 

 

If they do happen. That will be HUGE. not relatively to say Korea but Japan.

People have nothing else to watch this year and it’s a total national zeitgeist, so I just don’t know where the limit is. 30 would be super nuts, definitely not a prediction from me at this point. But I will predict over 25 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

People have nothing else to watch this year and it’s a total national zeitgeist, so I just don’t know where the limit is. 30 would be super nuts, definitely not a prediction from me at this point. But I will predict over 25 

I mean, yeah even you got the point. If I am saying that it can do 25mn admits, why not 30mn.

Anyways, I run my projections, and they are suggesting something of 28mn range 😛

<iframe width="100%" height="500" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTGi1Ry0NQtaAN0mRJl6eWXY4TfH_cvl9bo3t8Uq8vchc7p4L0-OrMBpJkT9M6_Vlccv67hTPqQHADw/pubhtml?gid=34723401&amp;single=true&amp;widget=true&amp;headers=false"></iframe>

Edited November 3, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

Ok count me IN for 2020 WW topper. Japan will mostly do $360-375mn on its own. Taiwan gonna do $13-15mn as well. If Taiwan is that big, can expect China to be at least 7-10x that, the lowest I have seen is 11x ffs. These 3 gives $463mn in low end and $540mn in high end of that 7-10x thing.

 

Regarding Taiwan, I checked Dragon Ball Super: Brolly. It did $875k in Taiwan and $4.6mn in China, so that's the lowest I have seen, but even 5.25x should mean $68-79mn China, which is more than enough.

Edited November 3, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok count me IN for 2020 WW topper. Japan will mostly do $360-375mn on its own. Taiwan gonna do $13-15mn as well. If Taiwan is that big, can expect China to be at least 7-10x that, the lowest I have seen is 11x ffs. These 3 gives $463mn in low end and $540mn in high end of that 7-10x thing.

 

Regarding Taiwan, I checked Dragon Ball Super: Brolly. It did $875k in Taiwan and $4.6mn in China, so that's the lowest I have seen, but even 5.25x should mean $68-79mn China, which is more than enough.

I am surprised at how big Your Name, Spirited away and Doremon stand by me at China.

 

I have this impression that Chinese especially those from Mainland hate Japanese and it is not rare to see average people there bashing Japanese for decades. I guess the action still speak lounder in the end.

[Cynosure]

Having a Japanese movie top the worldwide box office would be about the only positive thing to come out of 2020.

[PKMLover]

As of Tuesday 2PM, the first holiday the film has had, it's aiming for around 800,000 admissions at the usual locations, and accounting for the better share that rural locations have on weekdays (~33% versus ~25% on weekends), we can probably safely predict it exceeding 1.1 million admissions overall for the day. Only looking at a 300%+ increase over last Tuesday.

That'll give it around ¥1.4/1.5 billion ($13/14 million+) today if it holds steady. Higher than its opening day, and higher than either this past Saturday or Sunday.

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

As of Tuesday 2PM, the first holiday the film has had, it's aiming for around 800,000 admissions at the usual locations, and accounting for the better share that rural locations have on weekdays (~33% versus ~25% on weekends), we can probably safely predict it exceeding 1.1 million admissions overall for the day. Only looking at a 300%+ increase over last Tuesday.

That'll give it around ¥1.4/1.5 billion ($13/14 million+) today if it holds steady. Higher than its opening day, and higher than either this past Saturday or Sunday.

Everyday is DS' opening day

[PKMLover]

Today is the last day above 1m admits 

[newbie BO buff]

 

[LPLC]

How much dollars need Demon Slayer to beat Spirited Away in yen and in admissions ?

[PKMLover]

Evening shows have been slowing down a lot 

It seems to finish around opening day number 

[LPLC]

24 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Evening shows have been slowing down a lot 

It seems to finish around opening day number 

So it will not reach 1 million admissions like Corpse said ?

[PKMLover]

18 minutes ago, LPLC said:

So it will not reach 1 million admissions like Corpse said ?

900k-1M

[charlie Jatinder]

Demon Slayer

Day	Date	Daily	To Date	% +/- YD / LW*		Daily in $	To Date in $	Day
Fri	16 Oct 20	¥1,268,725,000	¥1,268,725,000			$12,037,200	$12,037,200	1
Sat	17 Oct 20	¥1,701,723,000	¥2,970,448,000			$16,145,400	$28,182,600	2
Sun	18 Oct 20	¥1,652,670,000	¥4,623,118,000	-2.88%		$15,680,000	$43,862,600	3
Mon	19 Oct 20	¥748,400,000	¥5,371,518,000	-54.72%		$7,093,800	$50,956,400	4
Tue	20 Oct 20	¥553,400,000	¥5,924,918,000	-26.06%		$5,240,500	$56,196,900	5
Wed	21 Oct 20	¥630,000,000	¥6,554,918,000	13.84%		$6,034,500	$62,231,400	6
Thu	22 Oct 20	¥472,000,000	¥7,026,918,000	-25.08%		$4,503,800	$66,735,200	7
Fri	23 Oct 20	¥685,865,000	¥7,712,783,000	45.31%	-45.94%	$6,550,800	$73,286,000	8
Sat	24 Oct 20	¥1,500,945,000	¥9,213,728,000	118.84%	-11.80%	$14,335,700	$87,621,700	9
Sun	25 Oct 20	¥1,540,504,000	¥10,754,232,000	2.64%	-6.79%	$14,713,500	$102,335,200	10
Mon	26 Oct 20	¥612,700,000	¥11,366,932,000	-60.23%	-18.13%	$5,835,200	$108,170,400	11
Tue	27 Oct 20	¥473,300,000	¥11,840,232,000	-22.75%	-14.47%	$4,520,500	$112,690,900	12
Wed	28 Oct 20	¥521,600,000	¥12,361,832,000	10.20%	-17.21%	$5,001,000	$117,691,900	13
Thu	29 Oct 20	¥393,300,000	¥12,755,132,000	-24.60%	-16.67%	$3,763,600	$121,455,500	14
Fri	30 Oct 20	¥546,100,000	¥13,301,232,000	38.85%	-20.38%	$5,230,800	$126,686,300	15
Sat	31 Oct 20	¥1,212,313,000	¥14,513,545,000	121.99%	-19.23%	$11,578,900	$138,265,200	16
Sun	01 Nov 20	¥1,286,355,000	¥15,799,900,000	6.11%	-16.50%	$12,274,400	$150,539,600	17
Mon	02 Nov 20	¥791,000,000	¥16,590,900,000	-38.51%	29.10%	$7,547,700	$158,087,300	18
Tue	03 Nov 20	¥1,194,000,000	¥17,784,900,000	50.95%	152.27%	$11,393,100	$169,480,400	19

[Borobudur]

4 hours ago, PKMLover said:

Evening shows have been slowing down a lot 

It seems to finish around opening day number 

It is reasonable, tomorrow is a working day.