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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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49 minutes ago, jatvision said:

Well if any consolation, Raya's not as bad as the forecast and will finish in Top 7 atleast. Seems like $150-175K Saturday and probably $400-450k weekend.

 

Hopefully leg out to crazy $10M. :jeb!:jjj-laugh.png

22x legs :jeb!:

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Weekend Actuals (03/06-07):
01 (02) ¥162,614,700 ($1.5 million), +04%, ¥38,446,447,150 ($368.0 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK21
02 (01) ¥156,172,270 ($1.5 million), -11%, ¥2,648,856,990 ($25.1 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK6
03 (---) ¥109,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥145,167,030 ($1.3 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (03) ¥x84,561,550 ($780,000), -14%, ¥916,953,550 ($8.6 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥x63,000,000 ($581,000), 0, ¥x70,277,600 ($0.7 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) NEW
06 (04) ¥x60,564,540 ($560,000), -24%, ¥584,529,860 ($5.5 million), Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace) WK3
07 (---) ¥x35,000,000 ($323,000), 0, ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million), Aria the Crepuscolo (Shochiku) NEW
08 (10) ¥x33,989,600 ($313,000), -02%, ¥1,738,598,150 ($16.8 million), Pokémon: Coco (Toho) WK11
09 (06) ¥x30,538,700 ($280,000), -27%, ¥2,325,558,250 ($22.4 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK11
10 (05) ¥x27,115,480 ($251,000), -49%, ¥1,817,636,340 ($17.6 million), Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.) WK9
11 (08) ¥x26,543,020 ($244,000), -34%, ¥604,821,600 ($5.7 million), Jukai Village (Toei) WK4
12 (09) ¥x26,110,260 ($241,000), -34%, ¥470,844,820 ($4.4 million), Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.) WK4


>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train retakes the #1 spot in its 21st week of release after being knocked off six weeks ago. This is its third consecutive weekend increase as well, giving it the second biggest 21st weekend ever, only behind Your Name. by a small margin. It has now sold 27,879,659 admissions after 143-days in release. ¥40 billion and 30 million admissions are both still in play, though with Evangelion taking its 4DX screens on Monday, it's going to be a slow, slow crawl.

>Loved Like a Flower Bouquet was dethroned after five weeks atop the box office, but it continues to have stellar holds. Its sixth weekend here is only down 19% versus its opening weekend. A truly incredible performance here, and it will become Tokyo Theater, Co.'s highest grossing film ever next week.

>The Sun Does Not Move managed to come in above ¥100 million, so fair enough start. It sold 79,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 355 screens, and sold 107,444 admissions over its first three days in release.

>Raya and the Last Dragon has an estimated weekend gross based on its 3-day total, but it appears to have just made the Top 5! That's obviously a much better ranking than it was possibly looking at going into the weekend, but this opening is still terrible in every regard and only looks "good" now since I lowballed it. Over its first three days in release, it sold 55,395 admissions on 253 screens. As mentioned, Toho Cinemas and Movix Cinemas decided not to show the film, likely from a dispute with Disney over its release.

It's frustrating since Disney is such a reliably strong market for Disney and it should have opened much higher than this. Worst-case should have been a Brave (WDA and Pixar's worst performing film in the market prior to this, or since the 90s) type of opening and performance, but its opening is almost 60% below Brave. I guess it'll be aiming for ¥500 million ($5 million), but March is crowded and it's likely going to suffer from consecutive screen/showtime cuts now given its poor opening and it could gross much less.
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32 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Mugen Train movie will be available Bluray and DVD June 16 in Japan.

3 months left for the ultimate ¥40B milestone mark huh....

Might happen in 3 weeks

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How?

 

This week will do ¥150M perhaps, leaving it ¥1.4B away from ¥40B.

 

Need 9 weeks of no drop to achieve that.

 

Dolby paired with big giveaways in 2 and 3 weeks. Will likely see huge jump on 27th rather than stay flat.

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12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Dolby paired with big giveaways in 2 and 3 weeks. Will likely see huge jump on 27th rather than stay flat.

Much to my surprise, the giveaways appear to be 1M each. The previous giveaways in the first couple months were calibrated to run out before the next one started, so I guess this indicates that they believe they can sell 1M admits the week of the the 27th, but I don’t think I believe that personally.     
 

But DS fandom in Japan is truly nuts, maybe a barely new version+ some paraphernalia really will be enough for a big revival 🤷‍♂️   
 

If the giveaway goals hit it would actually get to 30M admits, which is a milestone I had long considered likely out of reach.

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3 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

Much to my surprise, the giveaways appear to be 1M each. The previous giveaways in the first couple months were calibrated to run out before the next one started, so I guess this indicates that they believe they can sell 1M admits the week of the the 27th, but I don’t think I believe that personally.     
 

But DS fandom in Japan is truly nuts, maybe a barely new version+ some paraphernalia really will be enough for a big revival 🤷‍♂️   
 

If the giveaway goals hit it would actually get to 30M admits, which is a milestone I had long considered likely out of reach.

A multi demographic and generations fandom....

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Weekend Actuals (03/13-14):
01 (---) ¥1,177,445,400 ($10.8 million), 0, ¥3,338,422,400 ($30.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) NEW
02 (---) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥203,333,000 ($1.9 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥117,742,290 ($1.1 million), -25%, ¥2,963,923,020 ($28.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK7
04 (01) ¥x86,848,300 ($796,000), -47%, ¥38,612,613,550 ($369.5 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK22
05 (03) ¥x54,225,510 ($497,000), -50%, ¥301,541,660 ($2.8 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) WK2
06 (04) ¥x53,569,200 ($491,000), -37%, ¥1,035,823,150 ($9.7 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK5
07 (05) ¥x44,303,400 ($406,000), -30%, ¥153,393,750 ($1.4 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) WK2
08 (06) ¥x40,073,460 ($367,000), -34%, ¥687,982,300 ($6.5 million), Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace) WK4
09 (09) ¥x16,466,300 ($151,000), -46%, ¥2,360,693,100 ($22.7 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK12
10 (12) ¥x15,200,120 ($139,000), -42%, ¥512,744,200 ($4.8 million), Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.) WK5


>Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time kicks the Spring box-office season off with a record start, setting a NEW March Opening Weekend Record, a record that hasn't been broken in 15-years! What's even more impressive is that due to multiple scheduling delays, it was decided to release the film on March 8th, last Monday, yet it claimed the March OW record and opened 4% higher than its predecessor. This strategy and first seven days couldn't have gone any better.

The final film of the franchise sold a very impressive 760,882 admissions over the weekend frame across 466 screens, and over its first seven-days in release, reached a whopping 2,194,533 admissions. It will begin to slow down, likely sooner rather than later, but the hype surrounding its debut, as well as the finale factor, could result in a higher than expected finish. As it stands, assuming it slows down now, I think the goal (besides outgrossing its predecessor's 5.33 billion to become the #1 film in the franchise) is ¥7 billion (~$65 million) and 4.5 million admissions.

>Brave: Gunjyo Senki enjoyed a fair debut in second place, selling 111,000 admissions over the weekend on 333 screens, and sold 156,687 admissions over its first three-days in release. I don't think this is quite good enough to get it to ¥1 billion ($10 million), but a lucrative Spring Break period could help it get there.

>Loved Like a Flower Bouquet achieved a major milestone this weekend--becoming Tokyo Theater, Co.'s highest grossing film ever! The WOM hit surpassed In This Corner of the World to become the distributor's top grossing film, and is far from finished. It's going to exceed ¥3 billion in just a couple days, and is easily on track to reach ¥3.5 billion (~$33 million) at least. And depending on how it performs over Spring Break, I wouldn't even rule out ¥4 billion (~$38 million) with how incredibly well it's been performing since day one.

>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train slipped to fourth place after reclaiming the #1 spot in its 21st weekend last week, dropping a pretty heavy 47%, largely from the loss of its 4DX showings. The drop was closer to 35% in admissions though, clearly an indication audiences haven't had enough of this one just yet. And Aniplex/ufotable are responding once again to the demand, having just announced two more giveaway events (on March 27th and April 3rd) to thank moviegoers. Also, fans will get to reexperience the film once again if they choose at Dolby Cinema locations when it opens there on March 27th as well. This is usually the time when even the leggiest of films begin to exit the stage, but Demon Slayer is far from finished.

>Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi broke the ¥1 billion milestone over its fifth-weekend of release, becoming the first compilation film to ever accomplish this feat. Expect big, big things when the next film, Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet, opens next month (spoiler: Evangelion won't hold the biggest OW of 2021 for long).

>Raya and the Last Dragon held decently, but if it was going to recuperate from its awful opening weekend, it needed to do much, much better than this. It's likely going to stall out around ¥250 million ($2.5 million). The market is open for Disney to return to the box office proper, without a same-day Disney+ release and higher asking prices to show their films (this weekend is further proof Toho Cinemas and others aren't going to go along with that and will refuse to play them), so hopefully having the title of Biggest Bomb Ever under their banner will make them think twice with their future films.
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Weekend Forecast (03/20-21):
01 (01) ¥706,000,000 ($6.5 million), -40%, ¥4,850,000,000 ($44.5 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK2
02 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Healin' Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) NEW
05 (04) ¥x99,000,000 ($905,000), +15%, ¥38,805,000,000 ($371.3 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK23
06 (02) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -34%, ¥440,000,000 ($4.1 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK2
07 (03) ¥x87,000,000 ($800,000), -26%, ¥3,105,000,000 ($30.2 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK8
08 (06) ¥x36,000,000 ($330,000), -32%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.4 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK6
09 (05) ¥x32,000,000 ($295,000), -41%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.5 million), The Sun Does Not Move (Warner Bros.) WK3
10 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million), Minari (Gaga) NEW


Should be a pretty solid weekend ahead. Not only is Evangelion 3.0+1.0 still posting big numbers (should be just ¥500 million or so shy of becoming the highest film in the franchise already after Sunday!), but all the openers are looking at pretty solid starts based on Friday and Saturday pre-sales.

Also note: Saturday may be bigger than Sunday this weekend since it's Vernal Equinox Day and Movix Cinema Day. When a national holidays lands on a Saturday, it doesn't typically provide too much of a boost, but they can assist with keeping some films from dropping too much if they were looking at a noticeable decline. Similar situation with Movix Cinema Day. They're the third busiest chain, so their discount day (every 20th) provides a small boost to admissions across the board, but any benefit in revenue is generally quite small since it's mostly cancelled out by the discounted tickets. However, with both a national holiday and a chain discount day, I wouldn't be too surprised if a few films take particular advantage and have stronger than expected Saturdays.
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Japan box office recovery is one of the most impressive. If you think DS is an outlier, just remember eva 3 number is still easily higher than any opener in the domestic market in this pandemic era

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Do you think now with the gifts coming soon that 30 millions admissions and ¥40Bn (and maybe even $400M?) is almost locked ?

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Weekend Actuals (03/20-21):
01 (01) ¥679,390,200 ($6.2 million), -42%, ¥4,934,996,800 ($45.3 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK2
02 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥295,703,350 ($2.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥151,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥193,293,620 ($1.8 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (---) ¥115,351,700 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥115,351,700 ($1.1 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) NEW
05 (02) ¥x92,945,350 ($853,000), -35%, ¥464,036,850 ($4.3 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK2
06 (03) ¥x89,967,470 ($826,000), -24%, ¥3,219,382,840 ($31.3 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK8
07 (04) ¥x82,748,000 ($760,000), -05%, ¥38,780,137,650 ($371.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK23
08 (06) ¥x36,128,300 ($332,000), -32%, ¥1,122,403,350 ($10.4 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) WK6
09 (07) ¥x33,037,200 ($303,000), -25%, ¥221,958,850 ($2.1 million), Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney) WK3
10 (---) ¥x32,200,000 ($296,000), 0, ¥x44,617,200 ($0.4 million), Minari (Gaga) NEW


Very solid weekend, and now seeing some of the drops of the bottom half of the Top 10, it's quite good considering Saturday was weakened just a bit.

>Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time easily retained its #1 position atop the box office, selling an additional 423,398 admissions over the weekend, bringing its 14-day admissions up to a remarkable 3,222,873. Its two-week total, boosted by the Monday opening, is the second highest ever recorded in the market. And its 14-day total is only ¥395 million away from surpassing its predecessor's lifetime total to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise. Talk about a proper sendoff to a series! Expect a total between ¥7-8 billion (~$65-75 million), though it's still early enough to change that projection a bit higher if Spring Break boosts it enough.

>Caution, Hazardous Wife debuted well in second place, selling 166,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 335 screens, and 225,938 admissions over its first three-days in release. This is good, especially ahead of a big holiday period. Spring Break is one of the more demographic-bias holiday periods (targeting children/teens/young adults), so this one may not benefit as much, but any benefit could be the difference it settling around ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million), or possibly aiming for ¥2 billion (~$20 million).

>Tom & Jerry comes in third place, selling 119,000 admissions on 354 screens over the weekend, and sold 153,478 admissions over its first three-days in release. Now, this opening might look low, but anyone who follows this market should know that non-Disney animated films, especially a hybrid-animated film targeting children or families, almost always bombs. There just isn't much of a market, or demographic, for such releases here. So this start is quite good (and 140% higher than Raya...) and could get it to ¥1 billion (~$10 million) since it should do well over the holiday period next week.

>Healin' Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams settled for fourth place, selling 96,114 admissions over the weekend across 237 screens. This series (which produces 3 films a year) has its up and down trends, and it's been on a down for a couple years now, but this opening is 9.5% higher than the previous entry late last year. Perhaps it's the start of it going on an upward trend again soon.

>Loved Like a Flower Bouquet! I tell you what, this is one surprising release, and it's going to belong on any list of top performing films in the future. It already became Tokyo Theater Co.'s highest grossing film ever, and its multiplier is approaching 17 now with plenty left in the tank. Romance films also play very well over Spring Break, so we can expect a very strong performance next week. It may be a challenge, but ¥4 billion (~$40 million) is in play. Only 8 films (on record) have achieved multipliers over 20, and this one could become the 9th.

>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train enjoys the best hold in the Top 10, but what's new? I've probably made the same or similar mention over a dozen times now in these weekly updates. After 23 weeks in release, it has sold 28,124,311 admissions. The film has several big events coming up in the next two weeks, the first two happening this Saturday when it opens in Dolby Cinema theaters and begins its 5th giveaway event. So don't expect to see this one slowing down for at least a couple more weeks.

>Minari rounded out the Top 10. Its weekend admissions aren't available, but it sold 33,081 admissions over its first three-days of release on 143 screens.
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