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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Weekend Forecast (03/27-28):
01 (01) ¥543,000,000 ($5.0 million), -20%, ¥6,050,000,000 ($55.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK3
02 (07) ¥330,000,000 ($3.0 million), +300%, ¥39,195,000,000 ($374.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK24
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) NEW
04 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) NEW
05 (02) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -45%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK2
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($915,000), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) NEW
07 (03) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -38%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK2
08 (04) ¥x68,000,000 ($620,000), -41%, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -29%, ¥3,410,000,000 ($33.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK9
10 (05) ¥x59,000,000 ($540,000), -36%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time will threepeat atop the box office, and should deliver a great hold. It has a giveaway event starting today (although it's an illustration of the poster, so not too appealing), but perhaps more importantly, it has stage greetings on Sunday that were previously delayed due to restrictions in Tokyo when it opened. Those showings are largely sold out. Saturday is likely going to look a bit deceiving (possibly off 30-40%) since business will be more focused on Sunday than normal.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is heading for a massive increase, thanks to its fifth giveaway event beginning today, in addition to its Dolby Cinema expansion. It's also been given more premium format showings, and some bigger screens at many locations. It's difficult to really predict an increase given the circumstances, only that it's going to be several hundred percent based on the data currently available. Its average ticket price is also likely to see a bump from the additional premium format showings and expensive Dolby Cinema tickets, so the increase in revenue will be a bit higher than that in admissions. Also, if it wasn't pretty clear, this will break the Biggest 24th Weekend Record by a significant amount.

Monster Hunter looks like it may settle for a third place debut, but it seems on track to break ¥200 million, and if it does, I'd consider it a mild success given it could have outright bombed. As mentioned, Hollywood adaptations of domestic material is frequently ignored by audiences. If it does open around the forecast above, it should safely get above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone and might (big might) be able to approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) if Spring Break is kind to it. Japan will be its biggest international market, of course, and it could approach the U.S. tally (if Spring Break is kind).

Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 did well on Friday, and has good Saturday pre-sales, so I'm just going with a similar debut as both of its predecessors. It's on a few less screens than the last film, and might be hindered a bit from fewer night showings since theaters in and around Tokyo are still largely closing early (8/9PM), so it might come in a little below them.

Nomadland also opens this weekend, but it might not crack the Top 10. It was borderline on Friday, coming in tenth place based on estimated admissions, and it'll probably be borderline over the weekend, too. So if it does make the Top 10, bumping Brave: Gunjyo Senki out, look for a debut around what Brave makes over the weekend.

And lastly, since this is a weekend before a holiday period (Spring Break), Sunday could be stronger than it usually is since evening showings are typically stronger than normal.

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Demon Slayer made yesterday a whopping 1.1 million in its 163 day!!!

It beats all time worldwide record for 163rd day, Titanic was 0.8 million former record holder, amazing!!!!

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3 minutes ago, setna said:

Demon Slayer made yesterday a whopping 1.1 million in its 163 day!!!

It beats all time worldwide record for 163rd day, Titanic was 0.8 million former record holder, amazing!!!!

ET did $1,297,138 in USA on 163rd day.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl995132929/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1

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Weekend Estimates (03/27-28):
01 (01) ¥549,000,000 ($5.0 million), -19%, ¥6,055,000,000 ($55.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK3
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) NEW
03 (07) ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), +135%, ¥39,060,000,000 ($373.6 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK24
04 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) NEW
05 (02) ¥108,000,000 ($990,000), -51%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.5 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK2
06 (---) ¥x90,000,000 ($823,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) NEW
07 (03) ¥x83,000,000 ($759,000), -45%, ¥390,000,000 ($3.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK2
08 (04) ¥x71,000,000 ($650,000), -38%, ¥235,000,000 ($2.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($503,000), -29%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($32.9 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK9
10 (05) ¥x48,000,000 ($439,000), -48%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its reign atop the box office, possibly delivering a sub-20% hold in its third weekend, which is pretty astounding for a heavily fanbase-driven release. Of course, its third weekend benefitted from a giveaway event in addition to previously delayed stage greetings being rescheduled for this Sunday, but it's very impressive even with these boosters. It's likely exceeded ¥6 billion already, becoming the highest grossing film in the franchise even before going into the weekend, and should it have a solid Spring Break this week too, so it could be looking at a total of ¥8-9 billion (~$75-85 million). That total should also be plenty to give it a Top 3 spot (Top 5 worst-cast) this year at the 2021 box office.

Monster Hunter settled nicely in second place over its opening weekend, and it did quite well, really. Given the size of its fanbase (a few million at least in the market), this isn't a particularly good opening, but it's pretty respectable and the biggest opening for a Hollywood film since Tenet back in September. Also, Milla Jovovich succeeds once again. She has been a longtime consistent draw in the market from Resident Evil to independent films, with pretty much all her films doing well in Japan, and even many of them having Japan as their #1 overseas (or even overall) market. It might end up being a bit frontloaded, although its Sunday slightly beating its Saturday is an early indication it may not be, but it should be able to approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million) with this start. It's a little unlikely, but it has a chance for Japan to become its top grossing market, ahead of even the U.S.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train took big advantage of its Dolby Cinema expansion and fifth giveaway event, rising back into the Top 3 in its 24th week of release. It ended up jumping around 125% in admissions and possibly closer to 150% in revenue when taking the higher ticket prices from the Dolby showings and additional premium format showings it regained. This estimate is nearly double the previous Biggest 24th Weekend Record, so despite this late stage, it's still checking off more records. The final countdown to ¥40 billion has begun now that it's less than ¥1 billion away, and with Spring Break this week and its sixth (and presumably final) giveaway event starting on April 3rd, it could get there sometime in the next 10-days or so.

Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction was a nice surprise over the weekend. It was looking like it'd come in around ¥100 million, but it got above the mark pretty comfortably and came in fourth place in its debut. Big performers like Evangelion are obviously important for the box office, but it also needs mid-performers like this pretty often. Reaching ¥1 billion (~$10 million) will be a challenge, but this is a good enough start to get it there if it develops legs just a bit above average.

Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 came in noticeably lower than its predecessors (around 35-40% less at the usual locations) and likely missed the Top 5. It was very frontloaded from the get-go, dropping pretty hard each day. This is still great for only being in 64 theaters, but since Part 1 and Part 2 had nearly identical openings, it's interesting that Part 3 dropped off like this. I'm not familiar with the series besides knowing its name and such, but Part 3 is also only 48-minutes long. Perhaps that had an impact on it from some fans skipping it.

Nomadland ended up missing the Top 10, debuting in 11th place with around ¥40 million ($350,000-400,000) or so. Potential Oscar winners tend to open this time of year because the Academy Awards have already occurred, thus the winners can take advantage of this in the market, but with the Oscars delayed it wasn't able to gather any interest on that front.

This upcoming week is Spring Break, so look for some very strong dailies for any films that has family or student (teens/young adults) appeal. Other films can still benefit somewhat, but for films in with the benefitting genres, they can usually double up their weekend gross over the week. That should include Demon Slayer, Tom & Jerry, and Loved Like a Flower Bouquet as the films with the biggest opportunities to rake in the money. Evangelion may also benefit a bit, but the weekend events could have taken away some weekday business.

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Weekend Actuals (03/27-28):
01 (01) ¥528,017,500 ($4.8 million), -22%, ¥6,078,211,750 ($55.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK3
02 (---) ¥256,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥358,467,350 ($3.2 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) NEW
03 (07) ¥170,040,650 ($1.6 million), +106%, ¥39,038,746,700 ($373.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK24
04 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥159,000,000 ($1.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) NEW
05 (02) ¥113,386,650 ($1.0 million), -49%, ¥636,793,450 ($5.8 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK2
06 (---) ¥x90,000,000 ($823,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) NEW
07 (03) ¥x84,373,330 ($769,000), -44%, ¥405,591,700 ($3.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK2
08 (04) ¥x76,485,740 ($698,000), -34%, ¥250,274,930 ($2.3 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($503,000), -29%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($32.9 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK9
10 (05) ¥x49,679,800 ($453,000), -47%, ¥622,446,700 ($5.7 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time holds strong in first place for a third-consecutive weekend, and achieved the 10th highest three-week total ever in the process. The series finale sold 329,999 admissions in its third outing, and has now sold a very impressive 3,961,480 admissions after 21 days in release. Spring Break is already being kind to it, so we should expect a finish perhaps near ¥9 billion ($80/85 million) which will certainly be among the biggest films of the year (likely top 3 position).

Monster Hunter enjoyed a solid debut in second place, selling 162,000 admissions over the weekend on 472 screens, and sold 230,872 admissions over its first three-days of release. Given the size of the fanbase, several million strong, this opening isn't anything to write home about, but it's a pretty good start and actually the biggest opening weekend it's had worldwide. It's also the biggest opening weekend for a Hollywood film since Tenet way back in September. And furthermore... add this to the ever-growing list of Milla Jovovich hits in Japan, as the market is already its highest grossing international market after just three days, giving Jovovich 9 films now with Japan as its best intl. market.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train took big advantage of its Dolby Cinema expansion and fifth giveaway event, rising back into the Top 3 in its 24th week of release. Its 24th weekend also broke the 24th weekend record by 68%. The final countdown to ¥40 billion has begun now that it's less than ¥1 billion away, and with Spring Break this week and its sixth (and presumably final) giveaway event starting on April 3rd, it should get there a lot sooner than originally expected.

Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction was a nice surprise over the weekend. it sold 88,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 343 screens, and sold 119,000 admissions over its first three-days of release. Reaching ¥1 billion (~$10 million) will be a challenge, but this is a good enough start to get it there if it develops legs just a bit above average. And the box office can always use more of these mid-level sort of performers.

Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 remains an estimate. I'll update it when/if its actual figures come in. I'm pretty sure its 3-day numbers will be released, and if the estimate is close, it'll have more or less earned the same amount as its predecessors did over their first 2-days. Had this film opened on Saturday like its predecessors, its 3-day likely would have been very close to the 2-day given how fanbase-driven the series is.

Also, interestingly, Loved Like a Flower Bouquet remains an estimate. I'm not really sure why it wasn't included in the initial reporting this morning, as it's a wide holdover still in the top 10, but I'll update it when it becomes available.
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Weekend Forecast (04/02-03):
01 (01) ¥338,000,000 ($3.1 million), -36%, ¥6,910,000,000 ($63.3 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4
02 (03) ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), +55%, ¥39,475,000,000 ($377.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25
03 (02) ¥159,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK2
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW
05 (04) ¥x84,000,000 ($760,000), -29%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2
06 (05) ¥x82,000,000 ($740,000), -27%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3
07 (07) ¥x72,000,000 ($650,000), -15%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (06) ¥x51,000,000 ($460,000), -52%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2
09 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($450,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) NEW
10 (08) ¥x46,000,000 ($415,000), -40%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.3 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3


So unlike last weekend, I thoroughly tracked Demon Slayer's ticket sales going into the weekend, and have looked over Sunday's, and I'm very confident this forecast will be much closer than last weekend. It's on track to sell up to 50% of all its available tickets nationwide on Saturday (which I mentioned as attainable in my post above tracking it), which will get it right around 100,000 admissions for the day for ~¥150 million or a bit higher for Saturday alone. And if it does come in below the forecast this weekend, it's going to be like a regular prediction just falling a bit short. It's also going to beat Evangelion on Saturday at take #1 for one final day.

And this will be by far the Biggest 25th Weekend ever, adding another record to its list. I'll have that chart up later tonight, but I'm pretty sure it's only going to have Demon Slayer and Your Name. on it. Everything else had either finished their runs already, or have fallen well outside the Top 10 (well outside) and likely don't even come in at ¥5/¥10 million. I also think Spirited Away fell out of the Top 10 in its 25th week (it'd return several weeks later following its Oscar win), so its weekend gross is unavailable for several weeks.
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Weekend Estimates (04/02-03):
01 (01) ¥306,000,000 ($2.8 million), -42%, ¥6,880,000,000 ($63.0 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4
02 (03) ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), +37%, ¥39,445,000,000 ($377.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25
03 (02) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), -40%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK2
04 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW
05 (05) ¥x79,000,000 ($714,000), -30%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3
06 (04) ¥x78,000,000 ($705,000), -34%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2
07 (07) ¥x62,000,000 ($560,000), -26%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($416,000), -57%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2
09 (09) ¥x44,000,000 ($397,000), 0, ¥3,525,000,000 ($34.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK10
10 (08) ¥x41,000,000 ($371,000), -47%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its very impressive reign atop the box office in its fourth weekend. Dropping over 40% is certainly rather high, but it's honestly pretty solid since it benefitted from both a giveaway event last week and, more importantly, stage greetings last Sunday. I believe its run will be normal from here on out, unless they decide on something later in its run or over Golden Week, so expect a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$80 million). Such a total would be a whopping 60% higher than its predecessor. This was the meaning of a dream farewell for a long-running series.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to increase once again after already jumping over 100% last weekend. I can't recall any film, excluding expanding limited releases, that's ever managed to increase again following a prior increase over 100%. Its 25th weekend broke the 25th Weekend Record by over 180% as well... [Insert continuously mind-blowing image here]. It's a little over ¥500 million away from its ultimate milestone of ¥40 billion that this recent push was intended to get it over, and it most certainly will. I want to see what the next few dailies look like, but I'm currently expecting it'll get there something during the third week of this month.

Monster Hunter held decently, and has locked up a total above ¥1 billion (~$10 million). Depending on how it holds going into Golden Week at the end of the month, and what it can earn over Golden Week itself, it could still approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).

Finally, it's possible that Ensemble Stars!! cracked the Top 10. It's outside in admissions, by only a couple thousand admissions it seems, but it might have a very high average ticket price that gets it there in revenue. But without knowing that right now, I excluded it.
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1 minute ago, Tower said:
Weekend Estimates (04/02-03):
01 (01) ¥306,000,000 ($2.8 million), -42%, ¥6,880,000,000 ($63.0 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4
02 (03) ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), +37%, ¥39,445,000,000 ($377.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25
03 (02) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), -40%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK2
04 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW
05 (05) ¥x79,000,000 ($714,000), -30%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3
06 (04) ¥x78,000,000 ($705,000), -34%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2
07 (07) ¥x62,000,000 ($560,000), -26%, ¥610,000,000 ($5.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($416,000), -57%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2
09 (09) ¥x44,000,000 ($397,000), 0, ¥3,525,000,000 ($34.0 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK10
10 (08) ¥x41,000,000 ($371,000), -47%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its very impressive reign atop the box office in its fourth weekend. Dropping over 40% is certainly rather high, but it's honestly pretty solid since it benefitted from both a giveaway event last week and, more importantly, stage greetings last Sunday. I believe its run will be normal from here on out, unless they decide on something later in its run or over Golden Week, so expect a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$80 million). Such a total would be a whopping 60% higher than its predecessor. This was the meaning of a dream farewell for a long-running series.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to increase once again after already jumping over 100% last weekend. I can't recall any film, excluding expanding limited releases, that's ever managed to increase again following a prior increase over 100%. Its 25th weekend broke the 25th Weekend Record by over 180% as well... [Insert continuously mind-blowing image here]. It's a little over ¥500 million away from its ultimate milestone of ¥40 billion that this recent push was intended to get it over, and it most certainly will. I want to see what the next few dailies look like, but I'm currently expecting it'll get there something during the third week of this month.

Monster Hunter held decently, and has locked up a total above ¥1 billion (~$10 million). Depending on how it holds going into Golden Week at the end of the month, and what it can earn over Golden Week itself, it could still approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).

Finally, it's possible that Ensemble Stars!! cracked the Top 10. It's outside in admissions, by only a couple thousand admissions it seems, but it might have a very high average ticket price that gets it there in revenue. But without knowing that right now, I excluded it.

Japanese trying really hard to top 800 for the 2020 crown, only to have BOM fucked up their exchange rate over the course of its long run and miss out some notable market like Taiwan. 

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36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Japanese trying really hard to top 800 for the 2020 crown, only to have BOM fucked up their exchange rate over the course of its long run and miss out some notable market like Taiwan. 

Mojo ER mistakes don’t matter for actual crown. It’s locked.

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Just now, WandaLegion said:

Mojo ER mistakes don’t matter for actual crown. It’s locked.

So DS is expected to take down 800 after its NA debut in 23Apr. So it took 4 months into 2021 to confirm the eventual worldwide winner of 2020 box office. but this is still 1-2 months earlier compared to Frozen when we had to wait til June to confirm Frozen will take over Iron man 3 

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Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Weekend Breakdown:

WK1 (#1): ¥3,354,392,750 ($31.9 million), 0, ¥4,623,117,450 ($43.9 million)
WK2 (#1): ¥3,041,448,750 ($29.1 million), -09%, ¥10,754,232,550 ($102.4 million)
WK3 (#1): ¥2,498,667,150 ($23.9 million), -18%, ¥15,799,365,450 ($150.4 million)
WK4 (#1): ¥1,772,925,900 ($17.1 million), -29%, ¥20,483,611,650 ($195.2 million)
WK5 (#1): ¥1,521,657,050 ($14.5 million), -14%, ¥23,349,291,050 ($222.4 million)
WK6 (#1): ¥1,032,345,100 ($9.9 million), -32%, ¥25,456,933,550 ($242.7 million)
WK7 (#1): ¥1,004,503,750 ($9.6 million), -03%, ¥27,521,438,050 ($262.3 million)
WK8 (#1): ¥655,519,250 ($6.3 million), -35%, ¥28,848,575,300 ($275.0 million)
WK9 (#1): ¥939,411,200 ($9.2 million), +43%, ¥30,289,307,700 ($288.9 million)
WK10 (#1): ¥390,415,450 ($3.8 million), -58%, ¥31,166,647,900 ($297.4 million)

WK11 (#1): ¥907,618,200 ($8.8 million), +133%, ¥32,478,895,850 ($310.2 million)
*Surpasses Spirited Away to Become New #1 Film of All-Time (Revenue and Admissions, Days 72 and Day 75)*
WK12 (#1): ¥677,783,450 ($6.6 million), -25%, ¥34,642,166,000 ($331.3 million)
WK13 (#1): ¥299,486,650 ($2.9 million), -56%, ¥35,657,234,850 ($341.0 million)
WK14 (#1): ¥203,391,700 ($2.0 million), -32%, ¥36,176,405,350 ($346.0 million)
WK15 (#1): ¥183,633,400 ($1.8 million), -10%, ¥36,550,114,550 ($349.7 million)
WK16 (#2): ¥168,764,100 ($1.6 million), -08%, ¥36,884,239,450 ($353.1 million)
WK17 (#2): ¥145,327,200 ($1.4 million), -14%, ¥37,179,382,650 ($356.0 million)
WK18 (#3): ¥120,849,500 ($1.2 million), -17%, ¥37,488,979,550 ($359.0 million)
WK19 (#2): ¥150,705,300 ($1.4 million), +25%, ¥37,776,680,150 ($361.7 million)
WK20 (#2): ¥155,641,100 ($1.5 million), +03%, ¥38,140,817,550 ($365.1 million)
WK21 (#1): ¥162,614,700 ($1.5 million), +04%, ¥38,446,447,150 ($368.0 million)
WK22 (#4): ¥x86,848,300 ($0.8 million), -47%, ¥38,612,613,550 ($369.5 million)
WK23 (#7): ¥x82,748,000 ($0.8 million), -05%, ¥38,780,137,650 ($371.1 million)
WK24 (#3): ¥170,040,650 ($1.6 million), +106%, ¥39,038,746,700 ($373.4 million)
WK25 (#2): ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), +37%, ¥39,445,000,000 ($377.1 million) *Est.*
 
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17 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Which number can we expect for its performance in NA and LA? 

WwY did 7.8m but without Canada and pandemic issue, 5m should be within reach. And anime fan base are usually more passionate especially in NA, therefore I expect their retention rate to be high even with pandemic out there. Dragon ball 10m++ is out of reach for sure. I am hoping for higher number like 10m+ simply because DS did outperform WwY in almost every non-Japanese market, so naturally I hope that happen too to NA market.

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Weekend Actuals (04/02-03):
01 (01) ¥320,547,250 ($2.9 million), -39%, ¥6,898,613,200 ($63.2 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4
02 (03) ¥237,102,600 ($2.2 million), +39%, ¥39,436,585,950 ($377.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25
03 (02) ¥161,869,400 ($1.5 million), -37%, ¥764,065,300 ($6.9 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK2
04 (---) ¥138,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥193,422,750 ($1.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW
05 (05) ¥x79,650,400 ($720,000), -30%, ¥869,449,650 ($7.9 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3
06 (04) ¥x78,898,530 ($714,000), -33%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2
07 (07) ¥x63,998,080 ($579,000), -24%, ¥609,600,130 ($5.6 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (09) ¥x45,120,000 ($408,000), -19%, ¥3,536,144,870 ($34.1 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK10
09 (06) ¥x44,965,500 ($407,000), -58%, ¥285,907,400 ($2.6 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2
10 (08) ¥x43,413,490 ($393,000), -43%, ¥356,987,470 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time continues its very impressive reign atop the box office in its fourth weekend, avoiding a 40% drop despite coming off a boosted third weekend (giveaway event/stage greetings). The farewell to the classic series sold an additional 196,321 admissions over the weekend, and has sold 4,513,374 admissions after just 28 days in release. Its current total stands 29% above the final total of its predecessor, and 15% higher than the combined totals of the first two films in the Rebuild (Shin) series. I'm expecting a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$85 million) on 5.5 million admissions, as long as no other events are planned. The nearly 10 year wait that was delayed by numerous delays every couple years, but the fans were certainly willing to wait as long as they needed in order to send the series off on the highest note in the series.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to increase once again (selling 153,000 admissions) after already jumping over 100% last weekend. To my knowledge, excluding expanding/limited releases, this is the first time ever (1998-) that a film has managed an increase following a prior 100% increase (106%) the weekend prior. Its 25th weekend also broke the 25th Weekend Record by 181%. 171-day admissions are up to 28,576,157. It's a little over ¥500 million away from its ultimate milestone of ¥40 billion that this recent push was intended to get it over, and it most certainly will, probably by the end of April.

Monster Hunter held pretty well, and has locked up a total above ¥1 billion (~$10 million). Depending on how it holds going into Golden Week at the end of the month, and what it can earn over Golden Week itself, it could still approach ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million). Due to the exchange rate creeping slightly more unfavorable in recent weeks, I don't think it'll be able to surpass the U.S. to become the film's #1 market, but it'll get fairly close.

Signal: The Movie settled for third place, selling 101,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 315 screens, and sold 142,535 admissions over its first three-days in release. Nothing exciting here, maybe even perhaps on the lower-end of expectations given the solid TV ratings for the series, but it's fair enough (the theater count being closer to 300 than 350 may indicate Toho wasn't too confident in it either).

Loved Like a Flower Bouquet was starting to slow down with some regular drops over the past couple of weeks, but it's back again in its tenth weekend with a sub-20% decline. Its run has been extraordinary, and it's now among the Top 10 Leggiest Films (or highest multipliers) for a wide release. And it probably has enough in the tank to add another ¥200 million or so to its cumulative total.
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Weekend Forecast (04/09-10):
01 (01) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), -32%, ¥7,370,000,000 ($67.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK5
02 (03) ¥101,000,000 ($925,000), -38%, ¥970,000,000 ($8.9 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK3
03 (04) ¥x89,000,000 ($815,000), -35%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK2
04 (02) ¥x83,000,000 ($760,000), -65%, ¥39,630,000,000 ($378.9 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK26
05 (06) ¥x57,000,000 ($520,000), -28%, ¥495,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK3
06 (05) ¥x56,000,000 ($510,000), -30%, ¥990,000,000 ($9.0 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK4
07 (07) ¥x44,000,000 ($405,000), -31%, ¥710,000,000 ($6.5 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK4
08 (11) ¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), -10%, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK2
09 (08) ¥x33,000,000 ($300,000), -25%, ¥3,615,000,000 ($34.8 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK11
10 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million), 21 Bridges (Showgate) NEW
11 (09) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -45%, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK3


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time is starting to slow down, but will easily achieve a fifth weekend atop the box office. The numbers it's doing right now though are still good though. After Sunday, it'll have earned almost 40% more than the lifetime total of its predecessor.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train is going to experience a very large drop following two back-to-back weekend increases (big increases at 106% and 39% after that), but could still break the 26th Weekend Record as long as it drops less than 69.47%. Based on its Saturday pre-sales, they're on par with (slightly higher than) those from three weeks ago, so going with a weekend gross right around what it earned over its 23rd weekend.

Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie will be right on the cusp of ¥1 billion after Sunday. My prediction is that it'll just barely be shy, but it'll be very close. Either way, it'll get there on either Sunday or Monday.

Ensemble Stars!! is a bit of a shot in the dark. It held very well (sub-20%) on Friday-to-Friday, and its Saturday pre-sales are on par with last week, so it's *probably* in store for either a great hold (which I'm predicting) or a potential increase (too hard to say for limited releases like this). No numbers came out for it last weekend, but it came in 11th place in admissions, so it should get into the Top 10 in its second weekend.

Went ahead and put Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 here since it could remain in the Top 10 if either it holds better, and/or 21 Bridges comes in a little lower. Also, Freaky has a slight chance of cracking the Top 10 in its debut, but it performed a bit worse than 21 Bridges on Friday, so I'm predicting it'll miss. Whatever happens, these three films should rank 10th-12th in some way.

And as you can see, the market is slowing down a good bit right now, so expect Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet to take advantage of this next weekend as every theater (and it's opening in a record amount) is going to give it their largest screen (and probably second and/or third largest screens too) with as many showings as they can.
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Weekend Estimates (04/09-10):
01 (01) ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), -17%, ¥7,410,000,000 ($67.9 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK5
02 (04) ¥x94,000,000 ($860,000), -32%, ¥420,000,000 ($3.9 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK2
03 (03) ¥x89,000,000 ($815,000), -45%, ¥960,000,000 ($8.8 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK3
04 (02) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -73%, ¥39,610,000,000 ($378.7 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK26
05 (06) ¥x48,000,000 ($440,000), -39%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK3
06 (05) ¥x48,000,000 ($440,000), -40%, ¥980,000,000 ($8.9 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK4
07 (07) ¥x33,000,000 ($300,000), -48%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.4 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK4
08 (08) ¥x32,000,000 ($295,000), -25%, ¥3,615,000,000 ($34.8 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK11
09 (11) ¥x31,000,000 ($285,000), -22%, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK2
10 (---) ¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), 0, ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million), 21 Bridges (Showgate) NEW
11 (09) ¥x23,000,000 ($210,000), -48%, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK3


A rough Sunday led to some sizable decline this weekend, which was already likely to have some bigger drops due to coming off of Spring Break.

Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time held incredibly well due to sold out stage greetings on Sunday. It's earned over a whopping ¥2 billion more than its predecessor now and has a good bit left in the tank. I was projecting it'd finish around ¥8.5 billion, and I don't want to project any higher yet, but it is gradually increasing its chances of finishing a bit higher.
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Weekend Actuals (04/10-11):
01 (01) ¥265,203,150 ($2.4 million), -17%, ¥7,426,243,700 ($68.0 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK5
02 (04) ¥x92,622,400 ($844,000), -33%, ¥437,074,450 ($4.0 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK2
03 (03) ¥x91,620,550 ($835,000), -43%, ¥972,890,700 ($8.9 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK3
04 (02) ¥x71,882,500 ($655,000), -70%, ¥39,620,710,050 ($378.8 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK26
05 (06) ¥x49,130,150 ($448,000), -38%, ¥496,776,910 ($4.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK3
06 (05) ¥x48,318,500 ($440,000), -40%, ¥994,961,000 ($9.1 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK4
07 (08) ¥x36,364,110 ($331,000), -19%, ¥3,620,476,320 ($34.8 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK11
08 (07) ¥x35,321,000 ($322,000), -45%, ¥702,978,520 ($6.4 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK4
09 (11) ¥x30,142,300 ($275,000), -25%, ¥x96,550,500 ($0.9 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK2
10 (10) ¥x24,789,320 ($226,000), -43%, ¥356,987,470 ($3.2 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK4


Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time repeats for a fifth consecutive weekend. The farewell film has now sold 4,848,041 admissions after 35-days in release, so it'll be exceeding the 5 million mark very soon. I've been projecting a finish around ¥8.5 billion (~$80 million), and I'm not changing that figure right now, but if it can manage a fair hold against Detective Conan this upcoming weekend, it could be aiming for ¥9 billion (~$85 million). Prior to its release, expectations were either matching or coming in a bit above its predecessor's ¥5.33 billion total (already very impressive). But it has long since shattered that number, and is looking to finish 60-70% above it.

Monster Hunter is very close to the ¥1 billion milestone after its third weekend of release, and will exceed the mark in a few days. It has sold 647,993 admissions after 17-days in release. Look for a total around ¥1.3 billion (~$12 million). Not a spectacular result by any means, and you can probably rule it a disappointment, but considering Japan will come reasonable close to being its biggest overall market, it's not that bad.

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train came so, so close (0.56% away!) in breaking the 26th weekend record! Still a huge weekend at this stage of course, second biggest ever. After 178-days in release, it has now sold 28,696,998 admissions, selling an additional 110,822 over the last week. The end of its run is now in sight, still off in the distance a bit, but it's at least in sight for the first time. My preliminary final projection is a gross of ~¥40.5 billion (~$386 million) and 29.3 million admissions. And that's ¥10 billion higher and almost 6 million more admissions than the previous all-time records (both Spirited Away). ¥10 billion and 6 million admissions... I'll go into more detail on just how significant that margin is in the future. Spoiler: It's a record, mind-boggling margin.

Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie got so close to hitting ¥1 billion after its fourth week of release. It got there on Monday though, so nice accomplishment either way. These type of performances can be forgotten sometimes (unless you follow the box office in-depth like I do), but they're very important for the overall health of the box office.

Overall, a so-so weekend, one that would have been better if a couple Hollywood films were playing. The Japan Box-Office can easily survive without major Hollywood support, but without that support, there will be some "down" weekends like this one. This weekend, however, is often a bit "weak" since not much of interest opens on it since it's between Spring Break and Golden Week. Most studios just release their films ahead of Spring Break, or wait until Golden Week is closer.

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Weekend Actuals (04/17-18):
01 (---) ¥1,609,000,000 ($14.8 million), 0, ¥2,218,130,800 ($20.4 million), Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥155,078,150 ($1.4 million), -42%, ¥7,799,314,050 ($71.4 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK6
03 (02) ¥x58,838,900 ($542,000), -33%, ¥590,662,450 ($5.4 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) WK3
04 (03) ¥x52,473,200 ($483,000), -43%, ¥1,087,241,100 ($10.0 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK4
05 (04) ¥x36,684,900 ($338,000), -49%, ¥39,722,939,300 ($379.7 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK27
06 (09) ¥x31,945,100 ($294,000), +06%, ¥160,915,800 ($1.5 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) WK3
07 (05) ¥x30,698,030 ($283,000), -37%, ¥574,823,600 ($5.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK4
08 (06) ¥x30,272,700 ($279,000), -37%, ¥1,070,336,700 ($9.8 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK5
09 (---) ¥x26,875,300 ($247,000), N/A, ¥389,349,300 ($3.6 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK4
10 (07) ¥x26,551,270 ($244,000), -27%, ¥3,675,513,980 ($35.3 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More) WK12


>Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet debuts with a massive way, selling 1,122,000 admissions over the weekend frame in 497 theaters (screen count not released), and a whopping 1,533,054 admissions over its first three-days in release. We've followed and discussed this one a great deal this weekend, so here is just a rundown of what its opening achieved:

>New April Opening Weekend Record (2nd in Admissions).
>New Franchise Opening Weekend Record (2nd in Admissions).
>New Franchise 3-Day Opening Weekend Record.
>3rd Highest 3-Day Opening Weekend of All-Time.
>4th Highest Opening Weekend Ever for an Animated Film.

Its 3-day total is 18% higher than its predecessor's, the previous highest in the franchise, and if it would have similar legs, it'll become the first film in the franchise (and the first annual film in any franchise) to ever achieve uber-blockbuster status by exceeding ¥10 billion ($90 million). In fact, it "only" needs to finish 6.7% above its predecessor to reach the milestone, so it can have slightly weaker legs and still manage it. However, don't get too excited as this is no guarantee, and it's likely going to close and come down close to the end of its run. But it currently has a greater chance than not in doing this, so some excitement can be had. :thumbsup:

>Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time experienced a fairly big drop in its fifth weekend of release due to big screen/showtime cuts (premium formats, especially), but this is still pretty solid that shows a fair amount of interest is still there. Also, it exceeded 5 million admissions on Sunday, and has now sold 5,088,007 admissions after 42 days in release. I still believe it's heading right to that ¥8.5 billion (almost $80 million), but it can still go even a bit higher depending on Golden Week coming up soon.

>Monster Hunter exceeds the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone after its fourth-weekend of release. It's not going to overtake its total in the U.S. for Japan to become its #1 market, but it's hard to really be disappointed in its performance given it has broke the ¥1 billion barrier (commercial success mark) and easily outperformed any other non-U.S. market.

>Demon Slayer: Mugen Train managed to avoid a 50% drop and remain in the Top 5, though it was still hit pretty hard. It has now sold 28,763,050 admissions after 185-days in release. It's also just ¥278 million away from reaching the ¥40 billion milestone, and while it will take some time, it's going to get there. When? We'll likely know after Golden Week concludes in early May.

>Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie exceeded the ¥1 billion milestone after its fifth-weekend of release, and has sold 823,306 admissions now. It likely doesn't have enough in the tank to reach 1 million admissions unless it benefits greatly over Golden Week, but it's still a decent success that helps keep the box office alive between big releases.
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