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Weekend Forecast [7/20-21]

 

1 (-) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥1.1 billion ($12 million) DEBUT!
2 (1) Monsters University (Disney) ¥480 million ($5.0 million) Week 3
3 (2) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) ¥260 million ($2.7 million) Week 2
4 (3) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥220 million ($2.3 million) Week 4
5 (4) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥180 million ($1.9 million) Week 3
6 (5) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥110 million ($1.1 million) Week 3
7 (7) Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope! (Tokyo Theaters, Co). ¥30 million ($305,000) Week 3
8 (6) Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Presido) ¥30 million ($305,000) Week 2
9 (8) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥25 million ($255,000) Week 6
10 (9) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥20 million ($205,000) Week 7

After a 5-year hiatus from directing, Hayao Miyazaki is back with something entirely different for audiences: His most personal, and Studio Ghibli's most adult, film to date.

Today's ticket sales are very, very strong, and when factoring in all the older people, including seniors, who will be purchasing tickets at the door, The Wind Rises has the potential for a massive opening. Signs are already indicating it could open above ¥1 billion, and any opening weekend over ¥1 billion practically locks up ¥10 billion ($100 million). And with the legs of Miyazaki's past films, we could be discussing ¥15-20 billion ($150-200 million+) in the coming weeks.

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Holy shit at The Wind Rises :oI'm hoping to have a chance to watch it.Really hoping that TWR will not kill off MU or anything :(

 

 

Don't worry. Japan's one of the leggiest market there is plus school holidays just started so 80M+ still looking likely for MU. :D

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Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [7/20-21]

 

1 (-) The Wind Rises (Toho) ¥1.1 billion ($12 million) DEBUT!

2 (1) Monsters University (Disney) ¥480 million ($5.0 million) Week 3

3 (2) Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (Toho) ¥260 million ($2.7 million) Week 2

4 (3) Midsummer Formula (Toho) ¥220 million ($2.3 million) Week 4

5 (4) Fast and Furious 6 (Toho-Towa) ¥180 million ($1.9 million) Week 3

6 (5) Gintama: The Final Chapter (Warner Bros.) ¥110 million ($1.1 million) Week 3

7 (7) Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope! (Tokyo Theaters, Co). ¥30 million ($305,000) Week 3

8 (6) Silent Hill: Revelation 3D (Presido) ¥30 million ($305,000) Week 2

9 (8) To Cry 100 Times (Showgate) ¥25 million ($255,000) Week 6

10 (9) The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros.) ¥20 million ($205,000) Week 7

After a 5-year hiatus from directing, Hayao Miyazaki is back with something entirely different for audiences: His most personal, and Studio Ghibli's most adult, film to date.

Today's ticket sales are very, very strong, and when factoring in all the older people, including seniors, who will be purchasing tickets at the door, The Wind Rises has the potential for a massive opening. Signs are already indicating it could open above ¥1 billion, and any opening weekend over ¥1 billion practically locks up ¥10 billion ($100 million). And with the legs of Miyazaki's past films, we could be discussing ¥15-20 billion ($150-200 million+) in the coming weeks.

 

Given the Japanese population is the oldest in the world the potential is huge! :o

Older people are there for every Ghibli movie or only this one?

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MU last Saturday 38,122 admissions at Toho cinemas on 667 showings.

MU Saturday 32,832 admissions on 569 showings.

Despite TWR's massive opening, MU only dropped 14% at those sites.

 

TWR Sat 85,115 admissions at Toho cinemas on 566 showings. 

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MU last Saturday 38,122 admissions at Toho cinemas on 667 showings.

MU Saturday 32,832 admissions on 569 showings.

Despite TWR's massive opening, MU only dropped 14% at those sites.

 

TWR Sat 85,115 admissions at Toho cinemas on 566 showings. 

 

Wonderful to see both movies can thrive :)

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"The Wind Rises" off to a smashing start, aiming for over ¥10 billionPlaying on 454 screens, Miyazaki's first film in 5 years was tracking 27% ahead of Ponyo during the morning and afternoon, and is expected to play stronger into the evening and night with the support from middle-aged and senior moviegoers.

 

Hayao Miyazaki's Previous Work:Opening Weekends:¥1.483 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 :: Howl's Moving Castle (Hayao Miyazaki, Nov. 2004)¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 :: Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2008)¥1.005 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 :: Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2001)Totals:¥30.4 billion ($244 million) / 23.5 million :: Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2001)¥22.0 billion ($207 million) / 15.0 million :: Howl's Moving Castle (Hayao Miyazaki, Nov. 2004)¥19.3 billion ($165.5 million) / 14.2 million :: Princess Mononoke (Hayao Miyazaki, July 1997)¥15.5 billion ($164 million) / 12.87 million :: Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki, July 2008)Fastest Films to ¥10 billion ($101 million today):Spirited Away - 25 daysPonyo - 31 daysHowl's Moving Castle - 33 daysHarry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - 35 daysAlice in Wonderland - 37 daysPrincess Mononoke - 43 daysHarry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 44 daysBayside Shakedown 2 - 48 daysAvatar - 50 daysFinding Nemo - 52 daysThe Last Samurai - 52 daysToy Story 3 - 52 daysHarry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - 53 daysPirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - 53 daysPirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 67 daysThe Lord of the Rings: Return of the King - 79 days

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Toho Cinemas Admissions [saturday]
Admissions [# of showings] - Film

85,115 [566] - The Wind Rises, NEW
22,490 (-03%) [313] - Monsters University [2D - DUBBED], Week 3
14,202 (-62%) [302] - Pokemon Best Wishes, Week 2
12,273 (-38%) [351] - Midsummer Formula, Week 4
8,333 (-32%) [223] - Monsters University [3D - DUBBED], Week 3
5,271 (-33%) [137] - Gintama: The Final Chapter, Week 3
4,878 (-42%) [205] - Fast and Furious 6 [sUBBED], Week 3
3,805 (-48%) [192] - Fast and Furious 6 [DUBBED], Week 3
1,409 [30] - TM Network Final Mission, NEW
1,238 (-29%) [13] - Monsters University [3D - SUBBED], Week 2
1,198 [9] - Shanidar Hana, NEW
1,170 (-44%) [69] - Anpanman: Handkerchief of Hope!, Week 3
1,098 (-51%) [60] - To Cry 100 Times, Week 5
1,039 (-31%) [47] - Encore!, Week 4
1,000+

"Colossal for The Wind Rises. It's opening day admissions at Toho Cinemas are 49% ahead of Monsters University's opening day, and 118% ahead of Pokemon's opening day last week (it's actually matched Pokemon's weekend admissions in one day). And when you combine Monsters University's and Pokemon's opening day admissions here, The Wind Rises did 89% of their combined admissions opening day.

Toho Cinemas represent close to 20% of the nation's cinemas, so it looks incredibly likely the film exceeded 400,000 admissions for the day, and perhaps even up to 500,000.

Monsters University went on to have 615,000 admissions (121,000 at Toho) for the overall weekend, and Pokemon 464,000 (85,000 at Toho).

So we might be looking at an opening weekend close to 1 million admissions or more, putting the film in contention for biggest opening weekend ever for a local film. And such a record would be scary coming from a Hayao Miyazaki film considering the lowest multiplier for one of his films is 14x. And nothing wide opens next weekend, and while August is crowded, it's mostly fill of mid-tier films bunched together, so The Wind Rises could remain on top until sometime in September or October."

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