JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

courtesy of corpse

Top 20 Opening Weekends (2-Day) [Animated Features]

01. ¥1,483,804,112 ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448 scr] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)
02. ¥1,372,053,540 ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300 scr] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)
03. ¥1,133,513,323 ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223 scr] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)
04. ¥1,038,445,263 ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190 scr] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)
05. ¥1,034,459,534 ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481 scr] :: Ponyo (July '08)
06. ¥1,010,000,000 ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318 scr] :: Spirited Away (July '01)
07. ¥977,332,877 ($11.1 million) / 649,190 [530 scr] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)
08. ¥907,474,607 ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435 scr] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)
09. ¥898,000,000 ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654 scr] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '04)
10. ¥895,562,657 ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447 scr] :: The Borrower Arrietty (July '10)
11. ¥780,871,178 ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)
12. ¥758,000,000 ($7.6 million) / 594,000 [600+ scr] :: Monsters University (July '13) Est.
13. ¥751,852,208 ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689 scr] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)
14. ¥703,799,691 ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)
15. ¥683,924,835 ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312 scr] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)
16. ¥672,566,497 ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)
17. ¥671,548,700 ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344 scr] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)
18. ¥667,291,740 ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353 scr] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)
19. ¥629,740,742 ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351 scr] :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Apr '12)
20. ¥629,544,583 ($7.2 million) / 600,602 [369 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Zoroark - Master of Illusion (July '10)

 

Will Frozen enter top 10?

[avis121]

Olive - do you have initial info on how Robo is tracking in Japan, say in terms of admissions? Cheers

[Olive]

Olive - do you have initial info on how Robo is tracking in Japan, say in terms of admissions? Cheers

$1-1.2M 3 days maybe

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [03/15-16]



01 (--) ¥580 million ($5.7 million), Frozen (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥405 million ($3.9 million), Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 2
03 (--) ¥180 million ($1.7 million), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) NEW
04 (--) ¥140 million ($1.3 million), RoboCop (Sony) NEW
05 (02) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 3
06 (03) ¥100 million ($980,000), The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 5
07 (04) ¥75 million ($730,000), Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 2
08 (05) ¥50 million ($490,000), The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 13
09 (06) ¥45 million ($440,000), Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) Week 3
10 (07) ¥35 million ($340,000), Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Shochiku) Week 6

>Frozen opened yesterday (Friday) and saw some very, very strong ticket sales, particularly at Toho Cinema locations since the 14th is Toho Day (40% off tickets at all their theaters). Movix and other chains that I skimmed over weren't too shabby on their own, either, so great sign going into the weekend frame.

Ticket sales are strong this morning and afternoon at many locations. There are some areas, like Osaka, where it isn't playing well (possible indicator that its appeal to seniors is limited), though so far it's acting a lot more like a Pixar release than a Disney Animation release, so expect some good things this weekend and in the coming weeks/months.

¥500 million ($5 million) over the weekend looks good, and it may be able to reach ¥600 million ($6 million) if it can maintain the momentum it currently has going into Sunday after a Toho discount day and the first Saturday crowds see it. And taking Friday into account, the 3-day total should end up somewhere around ¥700/800 million ($7/8 million).

>Pretty Cure will likely do its routine numbers that it sees every March/October.

>RoboCop is going to be a bust despite the original being very popular. This reminds me of Total Recall all over again. A remake/reboot of an old box-office hit that bombs.

 

[Mojoguy]

If Frozens gets 8M for the 3 day OW in Japan that means MU should be the best comparison with it since it had very similar OW numbers at 8.3M.

[chuck0]

If Frozens gets 8M for the 3 day OW in Japan that means MU should be the best comparison with it since it had very similar OW numbers at 8.3M.

 

Neat... that would put it on track for my $90M guesstimate

[Mojoguy]

MU made a very strong $7.2 million on its 2nd weekend (Sat-Sun) in case anyone was wondering. I'm expecting Frozen to be around those numbers too next weekend.

[catlover]

If Frozens gets 8M for the 3 day OW in Japan that means MU should be the best comparison with it since it had very similar OW numbers at 8.3M.

 

I think you misread or something. 8m 3-day OW means around 6m 2-day OW. And MU's number was 2-day OW, 6m and 8.3m aren't similar, so not really a good comparison. But I personally think Frozen's OW will be bigger than that estimate.

Edited March 15, 2014 by catlover

[Mojoguy]

I think you misread or something. 8m 3-day OW means around 6m 2-day OW. And MU's number was 2-day OW, 6m and 8.3m aren't similar, so not really a good comparison. But I personally think Frozen's OW will be bigger than that estimate.

Frozen has an opening on Friday in Japan, and I imagine the OW was spread over 3 days for Frozen instead of 2 days like MU. So I'm comparing them. You don't have to like it.

[Olive]

Really hope corpse under-predicted.

[Mojoguy]

Corpse says:

 

Alright, so the morning showings and first afternoon showings are finished and Frozen was... really strong. I don't want to say I under-predicted (if it's skewing young enough, the evening/night will barely have any sales), yet, but I think it's doing more than the forecast.It managed to earn quite a number of sell outs, and sell outs are really hard to achieve without special situations. Without major fanbases, or stuff like stage greetings or freebies, very few films have sellouts due to the backloaded nature of Japan's market. And it's also playing on most theaters' largest screens, and it's having little trouble reaching 75% capacity or better on those.I thought that opening on Friday (which happened to be a Toho discount day) would deflate the weekend more than other Friday openers, but that doesn't appear to be the case at all. With it having just won 2 Oscars, exceeding $1 billion worldwide, and having the critical acclaim... it's a perfect storm scenario.It's also interesting to note that the dubbed version is doing more than twice the business (maybe 3x) as the subtitled version. If an imported release gets a dubbed version, there's usually a fairly even split (50/50, 60/40) between them, so it's a little unusual.Doraemon, while not doing Frozen level business in its second weekend, is also doing very well and might actually be benefiting from it.

[iceroll]

Corpse says:

 

Alright, so the morning showings and first afternoon showings are finished and Frozen was... really strong. I don't want to say I under-predicted (if it's skewing young enough, the evening/night will barely have any sales), yet, but I think it's doing more than the forecast.It managed to earn quite a number of sell outs, and sell outs are really hard to achieve without special situations. Without major fanbases, or stuff like stage greetings or freebies, very few films have sellouts due to the backloaded nature of Japan's market. And it's also playing on most theaters' largest screens, and it's having little trouble reaching 75% capacity or better on those.I thought that opening on Friday (which happened to be a Toho discount day) would deflate the weekend more than other Friday openers, but that doesn't appear to be the case at all. With it having just won 2 Oscars, exceeding $1 billion worldwide, and having the critical acclaim... it's a perfect storm scenario.It's also interesting to note that the dubbed version is doing more than twice the business (maybe 3x) as the subtitled version. If an imported release gets a dubbed version, there's usually a fairly even split (50/50, 60/40) between them, so it's a little unusual.Doraemon, while not doing Frozen level business in its second weekend, is also doing very well and might actually be benefiting from it.

My predictions for forum reactions:

 

Sunday March 16 (when Japan weekend #s come out):

"Frozen is going to demolish Spirited Away!"

 

Saturday March 22 (when early 2nd weekend projections come out):

"FLOPZEN! It will be lucky to beat MU"

[Mojoguy]

While we wait for the numbers to come in here is Let it Go scene in Japanese.

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

So 100m.

[LABAS]

update !

 

TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数中间集计：201403152014/03/1514:30CM:0TB:0TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数：20140315 （14:30 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名21978　52792　144　アナと雪の女王（日本语吹替版）21215　55424　201　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検队～*7908　26159　117　映画　プリキュアオールスターズ　ＮｅｗＳｔａｇｅ３　永远のともだち*5044　19549　*80　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）*3094　13384　*93　银の匙　Ｓｉｌｖｅｒ　Ｓｐｏｏｎ*2398　14552　*90　ロボコップ（字幕版）*2291　10338　*58　それでも夜は明ける　（字幕版）*2130　*4432　*11　剧场版　世界一初恋　横泽隆史の场合*1830　15157　110　剧场版しまじろうのわお！しまじろうとくじらのうた*1628　*3148　**8　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）

 

Yesterday at this time :  18567  admissions

Today 28650 

[Olive]

Doraemon will see a very tiny drop too.

[LABAS]

Doraemon will see a very tiny drop too

Hope this will apply to Frozen , too ^)^ Next week will be a 3-day off-work day..

[keysersoze123]

So 100m.

 

I still think that is jumping the gun. Let us wait for weekend numbers. But definitely way more than tangled.

[Olive]

Yeah, we don't know how much TOHO discount Friday did deflate the numbers.

Wait for the weekend numbers.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

update !

 

TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数中间集计：201403152014/03/1514:30CM:0TB:0TOHOサイト上映25分前贩売数：20140315 （14:30 集计）贩売数　座席数　回数　作品名21978　52792　144　アナと雪の女王（日本语吹替版）21215　55424　201　映画ドラえもん　新・のび太の大魔境～ペコと５人の探検队～*7908　26159　117　映画　プリキュアオールスターズ　ＮｅｗＳｔａｇｅ３　永远のともだち*5044　19549　*80　アナと雪の女王（字幕版）*3094　13384　*93　银の匙　Ｓｉｌｖｅｒ　Ｓｐｏｏｎ*2398　14552　*90　ロボコップ（字幕版）*2291　10338　*58　それでも夜は明ける　（字幕版）*2130　*4432　*11　剧场版　世界一初恋　横泽隆史の场合*1830　15157　110　剧场版しまじろうのわお！しまじろうとくじらのうた*1628　*3148　**8　アナと雪の女王（３Ｄ・字幕版）

 

Yesterday at this time :  18567  admissions

Today 28650 

吹替版 (dubbed version) sold way more.