JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[catlover]

How 5-6m OW is "realistic"?

Frozen overperformed around the world and these assumptions fail to take all the hype coming from being the late release into account.

7-8m is realistic, 9-10m is optimistic but reasonable and beyond 10m is clearly optimistic. 5-6m is pessimistic at best.

 

I think I posted it in Frozen OS thread, but I'll say it again. Frozen is not a Pixar movie, not a sequel/prequel, and not a Ghibli movie. Also, Hollywood movies have been struggling in Japan for several years now. Only few of them hit it big. Yes there was worldwide hype before Frozen was release, but you see, Japan is a country that is rarely affected by those kind of hype. They have their own culture and taste, sometimes they're the same with the rest of the world, but many times they're different. They decide what they like and what they don't regardless of the hype in other countries.

 

That's why I put that "worldwide success" hype aside when I made the OW prediction. The previous WDAS movie opened with $3m or so, and 6m is a great OW for movies in general. Especially because I expected it to be very leggy, since I was sure once they saw Frozen, they would like it. So I thought it was reasonable and realistic, based on the information we have. FYI, I visited some Japanese movie forums to see what people there were predicting for Frozen. And guess what, their predictions were even lower than that. But apparently in this case, the marketing and media in Japan succeeded in delivering that worldwide hype, and the people there reacted accordingly. Something that doesn't often happen.

Edited March 15, 2014 by catlover

[mfantin65]

Howinvented5-6m OW is "realistic"?

Frozen overperformed around the world and these assumptions fail to take all the hype coming from being the late release into account.

7-8m is realistic, 9-10m is optimistic but reasonable and beyond 10m is clearly optimistic. 5-6m is pessimistic at best.

Finally some common sense. TY.

I trade the stock market. Phenomanal runs in stocks  have to be anticipated and realistic expectations make you little money as you are not in the trade or out too early. If they fall short of high expectations, a great deal of money is still made.

For a hundred years a long lasting light bulb failed to be invented  Edison failed thousands of times. Realistically, it was impossible, he should have quit and then not invented the movie projector 20 years later. In other words we mite just be reading the The Snow Queen by candle light instead of watching it without vision and optimism. I choose the "light" side of things.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (3/15):Admissions [# of showings] - Film (Week of Release)59,192 [522] - Frozen (NEW)26,270 [286] - Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Week 2)9,514 [161] - Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (NEW)6,227 [237] - RoboCop (NEW)5,776 [192] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Week 5)5,654 [230] - Silver Spoon (Week 2)5,046 [131] - 12 Years a Slave (Week 2)4,693 [202] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Week 3)2,968 [123] - The Eternal Zero (Week 13)2,800 [21] - The World's Greatest First Love: Onodera Ritsu's Affair (NEW)2,139 [107] - Kiki's Delivery Service (Week 3)1,948 [27] - The IDOLM@STER MOVIE (Week 7)1,855 [112] - Shimijaro 2014 (NEW)1,677 [68] - Kamen Teacher (Week 4)1,503 [119] - The Great, Shurarabon (Week 2)1,061 [67] - Kick Ass 2 (Week 4)970 [17] - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Week 6)826 [55] - I Want to Hold You (Week 7)784 [58] - All is Lost (NEW)604 [57] - Rush (Week 6)506 [6] - The Wolf of Wall Street (Week 7)463 [64] - Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Week 5)372 [27] - Nebraska (Week 4)336 [8] - Philomena (NEW)That's extremely impressive for Frozen. It's actually the most admissions for an imported release (at Toho Cinemas) since  Monsters University!

Edited March 15, 2014 by eren jaeger

[Mojoguy]

It's great to see Frozen being compared to DH2 in admissions in that theater.

Edited March 15, 2014 by Mojoguy

[edroger3]

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas [First Saturday Admissions/Weekend Admissions]Saturday Admissions (Weekend Admissions) - Film 85,115 (167,188) - The Wind Rises (7/20/13)59,492 (121,802) - Monsters University (7/06/13)59,192 (???,???) - Frozen (03/15/14)51,776 (108,700) - Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (12/07/13)42,541 (94,650) - Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (03/08/14)42,537 (91,182) - The Eternal Zero (12/21/13)40,414 (74,131) - Midsummer Formula (6/29/13)38,885 (85,462) - Pokemon: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (7/13/13)37,960 (88,488) - SPEC: Close - Incarnation Part I (11/01/13)The 3D share will be lower than Monsters University, so I think beating its opening weekend of 847 million ($8.2 million) will be tough, but regardless, an opening weekend of ¥800 million ($8 million) is actually possible. And legs during the Spring don't compare to Summer/Winter, but they can still approach a multiplier of 10 (Wreck-It Ralph had a x8.8 last March).So I'd say, if the opening is around ¥800 million ($8 million), it'll be targeting a ¥7-8 billion ($70/80 million) total. Excluding Pixar, that would be by far the highest-grossing Disney animation release beating Dinosaur's long-standing record of ¥4.9 billion.

 

It'll need to do over ¥1 billion (about ¥1.02 billion to be exact) with Friday included to reach $10 million. If it opens to ¥800 million ($8 million) over the weekend, it'll get there. But if it's closer to ¥700/750 million ($7/7.5 million), I think it'll fall just shy with ~¥950 million ($9.4/9.5 million).

 

 

Corpse

 

Toho Cinemas Saturday Admissions (3/15):Admissions [# of showings] - Film (Week of Release)59,192 [522] - Frozen (NEW)26,270 [286] - Doraemon: New Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Week 2)9,514 [161] - Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (NEW)6,227 [237] - RoboCop (NEW)5,776 [192] - The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Week 5)5,654 [230] - Silver Spoon (Week 2)5,046 [131] - 12 Years a Slave (Week 2)4,693 [202] - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Week 3)2,968 [123] - The Eternal Zero (Week 13)2,800 [21] - The World's Greatest First Love: Onodera Ritsu's Affair (NEW)2,139 [107] - Kiki's Delivery Service (Week 3)1,948 [27] - The IDOLM@STER MOVIE (Week 7)1,855 [112] - Shimijaro 2014 (NEW)1,677 [68] - Kamen Teacher (Week 4)1,503 [119] - The Great, Shurarabon (Week 2)1,061 [67] - Kick Ass 2 (Week 4)970 [17] - Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Week 6)826 [55] - I Want to Hold You (Week 7)784 [58] - All is Lost (NEW)604 [57] - Rush (Week 6)506 [6] - The Wolf of Wall Street (Week 7)463 [64] - Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (Week 5)372 [27] - Nebraska (Week 4)336 [8] - Philomena (NEW)That's extremely impressive for Frozen. It's actually the most admissions for an imported release (at Toho Cinemas) since Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (sorry, Monsters University!)

in your previous post it seems that MU had more admissions than Frozen. In this post, instead, it seems Frozen have done better. Or MU isn't an imported release?

Edited March 15, 2014 by edroger

[cremino]

in your previous post it seems that MU had more admissions than Frozen. In this post, instead, it seems Frozen have done better. Or MU isn't an imported release?

MU had slightly more admissions. There was an error in the other post...

Edited March 15, 2014 by eren jaeger

[edroger3]

MU had slightly more admissions. There was an error in the other post...

Ti ringrazio per la precisazione. (thanks for clarification)

[mfantin65]

I think I posted it in Frozen OS thread, but I'll say it again. Frozen is not a Pixar movie, not a sequel/prequel, and not a Ghibli movie. Also, Hollywood movies have been struggling in Japan for several years now. Only few of them hit it big. Yes there was worldwide hype before Frozen was release, but you see, Japan is a country that is rarely affected by those kind of hype. They have their own culture and taste, sometimes they're the same with the rest of the world, but many times they're different. They decide what they like and what they don't regardless of the hype in other countries. That's why I put that "worldwide success" hype aside when I made the OW prediction. The previous WDAS movie opened with $3m or so, and 6m is a great OW for movies in general. Especially because I expected it to be very leggy, since I was sure once they saw Frozen, they would like it. So I thought it was reasonable and realistic, based on the information we have. FYI, I visited some Japanese movie forums to see what people there were predicting for Frozen. And guess what, their predictions were even lower than that. But apparently in this case, the marketing and media in Japan succeeded in delivering that worldwide hype, and the people there reacted accordingly. Something that doesn't often happen.

Pixar Schmixar.Just gotta feel the vibe

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

Saturday Estimates (03/15)¥372 million ($3.7 million), NEW, Frozen (Disney) DEBUT¥167 million ($1.6 million), -37%, Doraemon 34 (Toho) Week 2¥77 million ($760,000), NEW, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) DEBUT¥53 million ($520,000), NEW, RoboCop (Sony) DEBUT¥45 million ($440,000), -46%, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 3¥44 million ($430,000), -37%, The Mole Song: Undercover Agent Reiji (Toho) Week 5¥38 million ($370,000), -40%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 2¥26 million ($250,000), -27%, The Eternal Zero (Toho) Week 13¥22 million ($210,000), -39%, Kiki's Delivery Service (Toei) Week 3¥10 million ($95,000), -60%, The Great, Shurarabon (Toei) Week 2¥10 million ($90,000), -62%, Tiger & Bunny: The Rising (Shochiku) Week 6Frozen sold 93% of the tickets that Monsters University did on its opening day (or Saturday rather). MU went on to see approx. an 11.9% increase on Sunday. It is however Spring vs. Summer comparing these two, but I've been tracking the box-office extensively for about 5 years now and I don't see much seasonal change between increases or decreases on Sunday, with Sunday normally being stronger (especially for children/family films).If Frozen sees a similar increase on Sunday, and morning/afternoon ticket sales are stronger than yesterday's already so it will see an increase, it's heading for about ¥780/¥790 million ($7.7/7.8 million) for the weekend and the 3-day total will be either slightly over/under the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) mark.Outside of the last four Hayao Miyazaki films and two other Studio Ghibli films (Earthsea and Arrietty), as well as Finding Nemo from Pixar, Frozen is set to have the best debut for an original animated film ever.

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

Top 20 Opening Weekends [Animated Features]Rank - Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [screen Count] - Film (Release Date)01. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448 scr] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)02. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300 scr] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)03. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223 scr] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)04. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190 scr] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)05. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481 scr] :: Ponyo (July '08)06. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318 scr] :: Spirited Away (July '01)07. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,190 [530 scr] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)08. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454 scr] :: The Wind Rises (July '13)09. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435 scr] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)10. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654 scr] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '03)11. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447 scr] :: The Borrower Arrietty (July '10)12. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 [661 scr] :: Monsters University (July '13)*¥775-¥825 million ($7.7-$8.2 million) / 550,000-600,000 [n/a] :: Frozen (Mar '14)*Projection13. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)14. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689 scr] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)15. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)16. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312 scr] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)17. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366 scr] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)18. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344 scr] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)19. ¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353 scr] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)20. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 [329 scr] :: Lupin III Vs. Detective Conan (Dec '13)

Edited March 16, 2014 by Mojoguy

[A Marvel Fanboy]

The per screen gross is CRAZY, blowing rest of the world out of water.

 

819,738 [190 scr] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09) wonder how this happened. insane PSA.

Edited March 16, 2014 by firedeep

[Olive]

Saw a load of sellouts for Frozen.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

$50 million will easily fall if it opens to $8 million. A multiplier of 5/6 is the average multiplier outside of holiday frames, and well-received films can easily earn a 7/8 without holiday support, too. Multipliers for popular films released before Spring Break (in two weeks) rarely go under 8.An opening of ~$8 million should result in:$60/65 million: the floor or minimum goal (a lot will have to go wrong here; the plagiarism claims will have to go wide-scale, and I doubt they will).$70/75 million: the expected target (typical legs for a well-received film before holidays).$80/85 million: the ceiling or greatly exceeding expectations (it's very, very rare to see multipliers reach or exceed 10 outside of July/Dec.)

 

It would have to be frontloaded as hell to not reach $50 million, and the term frontloaded doesn't really exist in Japan. There is usually no more than 5 or so wide-releases a year that get multipliers under 5. Kamen Rider are some of the most frontloaded films, and even they get over 4 and sometimes 5.Multiplier breakdown:Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

[chuck0]

Corpse

$60/65 million: the floor or minimum goal (a lot will have to go wrong here; the plagiarism claims will have to go wide-scale, and I doubt they will).

 

anybody know what those plagiarism claims are about?

[Rsyu]

anybody know what those plagiarism claims are about?

 

I was interested in this too so I did a web search and came across this

 

link: http://www.awesome-robo.com/2013/06/the-uncanny-resemblance-between-disneys.html

 

I do see a similarity between the teaser and the animation shown in the website but that's it in my opinion. Olaf is nothing like the snowman in the said clip who looks really sad and gloomy. Anyway I'm not really sure if this is the plagiarism referred to, it seems like such a weak claim. It could be talking about some Japanese animation we know little about. 

[lab276]

I was interested in this too so I did a web search and came across this link: http://www.awesome-robo.com/2013/06/the-uncanny-resemblance-between-disneys.html I do see a similarity between the teaser and the animation shown in the website but that's it in my opinion. Olaf is nothing like the snowman in the said clip who looks really sad and gloomy. Anyway I'm not really sure if this is the plagiarism referred to, it seems like such a weak claim. It could be talking about some Japanese animation we know little about.

That's from June, surely it's not that.

[Rsyu]

That's from June, surely it's not that.

Well it's the only one I could find. Maybe someone could ask corpse?

[Olive]

I was interested in this too so I did a web search and came across this

 

link: http://www.awesome-robo.com/2013/06/the-uncanny-resemblance-between-disneys.html

 

I do see a similarity between the teaser and the animation shown in the website but that's it in my opinion. Olaf is nothing like the snowman in the said clip who looks really sad and gloomy. Anyway I'm not really sure if this is the plagiarism referred to, it seems like such a weak claim. It could be talking about some Japanese animation we know little about. 

I think there is a Japanese catoon which has similar theme or character design as Frozen .

So some netizens in Japan claim Frozen is plagiarism , but its not common sense.

[Rsyu]

I think there is a Japanese catoon which has similar theme or character design as Frozen .So some netizens in Japan claim Frozen is plagiarism , but its not common sense.

I thought that was more likely to be the case since there were no mentions of plagiarism in other countries. Thanks for clearing that up!

[LABAS]

In twitter, some Japanese said they had seen Frozen in the theater for at least two times.

The frozen products are selling like hotcakes.

It 's a good sign.