JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[SchumacherFTW]

Dayum! I didn't realise Ponyo made so much bank so fast! 

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast (02/06-07)/2016年02月06日-2016年02月07日
01 (--) ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($4.5 million), The Martian (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥404,000,000 ($3.4 million), -33%, ¥2,500,000,000 ($21.1 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥180,000,000 ($1.5 million), -38%, ¥700,000,000 ($5.8 million), Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) WK2
04 (03) ¥171,000,000 ($1.4 million), -35%, ¥10,480,000,000 ($86.5 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK8
05 (05) ¥64,000,000 ($550,000), -42%, ¥270,000,000 ($2.3 million), The Inerasable (Shochiku) WK2
06 (04) ¥59,000,000 ($505,000), -48%, ¥270,000,000 (2.3 million), Black Mass (Warner Bros.) WK2
07 (06) ¥51,000,000 ($435,000), -40%, ¥5,310,000,000 ($44.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK8
08 (07) ¥50,000,000 ($430,000), -33%, ¥555,000,000 ($4.8 million), Paddington (Kino Films) WK4
09 (08) ¥41,000,000 ($345,000), -44%, ¥270,000,000 ($2.3 million), Shuriken Sentai Ninninger/Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland (Toei) WK3
10 (09) ¥35,000,000 ($300,000), -39%, ¥420,000,000 ($3.6 million), Les Saisons (Gaga) WK4

This weekend is a bit challenging to predict because of last weekend's incredible holds across the board. I'm going with some pretty big drops for most films given their holds last weekend, and the sizable decline in pre-sales and Saturday morning/afternoon sales compared to last week.

The Martian has some very nice pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales, and should be a film that plays well into the evening as well. It's outpacing Nobunaga Concerto by enough that it's likely to debut atop the box office, and appears strong enough to perhaps exceed ¥400 million over the weekend as well.

And based on this projected debut The Martian should have little trouble exceeding the ¥2 billion milestone, and I wouldn't rule out a total closer to ¥2.5 billion ($20 million+) or more. The rest of February is very weak, so with good reviews and poor competition, legs should be strong. After checking its box-office on BOM, Japan could deliver enough to push it over $400 million overseas.

[edroger3]

On 1/2/2016 at 2:29 PM, The Good Olive said:

 

 

11B for SW7 will likely happen.

11B means the biggest live action of this decade (2011-20) and the third biggest movie behind  Frozen and The Wind Rises. So, looking at the top ten of past decade (2006-15), six movies on ten are Disney's. One more that in the same frame in USA.  

[MrFanaticGuy34]

The Martian's finally released in Japan, eh?

 

Enough to put it among the "Over $600M WW club".

[Quigley]

If Mojo is accurate, the film made sth like $6M there. Impressive.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (02/06-07)/2016年02月06日-2016年02月07日
01 (--) ¥460,000,000 ($3.9 million), 0, ¥555,000,000 ($4.8 million), The Martian (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥394,000,000 ($3.4 million), -35%, ¥2,490,000,000 ($21.0 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥176,000,000 ($1.5 million), -40%, ¥700,000,000 ($5.8 million), Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) WK2
04 (03) ¥173,000,000 ($1.5 million), -34%, ¥10,480,000,000 ($86.5 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK8
05 (05) ¥57,000,000 ($490,000), -48%, ¥265,000,000 ($2.2 million), The Inerasable (Shochiku) WK2
06 (04) ¥52,000,000 ($445,000), -54%, ¥270,000,000 (2.3 million), Black Mass (Warner Bros.) WK2
07 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($400,000), -45%, ¥5,310,000,000 ($44.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK8
08 (07) ¥44,000,000 ($375,000), -42%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.8 million), Paddington (Kino Films) WK4
09 (--) ¥42,000,000 ($360,000), 0, ¥42,000,000 ($360,000), Code Geass: Akito the Exiled, Chapter 5 - To Beloved (Showgate) NEW
10 (08) ¥39,000,000 ($335,000), -46%, ¥270,000,000 ($2.3 million), Shuriken Sentai Ninninger/Ressha Sentai ToQger: Ninjas in Wonderland (Toei) WK3

>The Martian finally landed in Japan and certainly made its impact felt on the box-office in its debut weekend. The opening far outpaces the likes of Gravity or other recent Hollywood space-adventures (Star Wars aside...), and even ranks among the best debuts in February's history based on estimates. I can only recall two or three February openers coming in higher. I'll provide a list of February opening weekends later today.

Anyway, if the estimate holds (or goes up!), The Martian is very likely to exceed ¥2.5 billion ($20 million+), and should be able to reach the ¥3 billion ($25 million+) milestone. A ¥3 billion total generally results in a Top 15 spot on the yearly chart, so that's damn impressive to achieve this early in the year.

>Nobunaga Concerto holds steady, but had to relinquish its hold on the top spot in its third weekend. The breakout hit delivered the second biggest January opening weekend last month, followed by the third biggest January weekend ever in its second weekend; so to still be able to muster nearly a ¥400 million third weekend based on estimates is remarkable.

Its three week total is around ¥2.5 billion already, and it's on track to finish close to the ¥4 billion (~$35 million) mark. 2016 has only recently started, but Nobunaga Concerto is a strong contender to make the Top 10 films of the year.

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens continues to perform well, and having already outgrossed two of the prequels in the series and becoming the second live-action film since 2010 to reach the ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster milestone; it's just adding to an already incredible total at this point. It'll finish its run just above the ¥11 billion (~$95 million) mark, making it Disney's third highest-grossing film in the market.

>Code Geass: Akito the Exiled, Chapter 5 may only be a limited release (36 screens), and dropped a massive 55% on Sunday, but it still appears to have enough admissions to have debuted in the Top 10. In fact, depending on its ticket prices, it could possibly come in as high as seventh or eighth. Quite solid.

_________________

[Olive]

The Martian OW made 628M yen including Friday previews.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens  cume reached 10.48B yen, doubling yokai Watch 2.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Actuals (02/13-14)/2016年02月13日-2016年02月14日
01 (01) ¥406,983,300 ($3.6 million), -18%, ¥1,641,976,500 ($14.3 million), The Martian (Fox) WK2
02 (02) ¥283,385,300 ($2.5 million), -29%, ¥3,266,989,200 ($28.0 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK4
03 (04) ¥138,608,000 ($1.2 million), -16%, ¥10,830,000,000 ($89.6 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK9
04 (03) ¥126,281,200 ($1.1 million), -30%, ¥1,082,327,300 ($9.0 million), Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) WK3
05 (--) ¥101,106,100 ($895,000), 0, ¥198,006,900 ($1.8 million), Born in the EXILE (Toho Video Division) NEW
06 (05) ¥39,780,000 ($352,000), -32%, ¥376,491,700 ($2.2 million), The Inerasable (Shochiku) WK3
07 (06) ¥33,018,300 ($292,000), -37%, ¥389,045,200 (2.3 million), Black Mass (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (07) ¥32,078,100 ($284,000), -31%, ¥5,363,351,100 ($45.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories (Toho) WK9
09 (09) ¥30,037,000 ($266,000), -30%, ¥636,038,200 ($5.6 million), Paddington (Kino Films) WK5
10 (--) ¥24,944,700 ($221,000), 0, ¥52,481,400 ($464,000), Carol (Phantom Film) NEW

>The Martian retains its position atop the box office, dropping sub-20% in weekend gross and just 16% in weekend admissions, selling 277,427 tickets in its second weekend. Don't look for this one to relinquish its hold on the #1 spot until March.

After two weeks in release, Ridley Scott's latest has exceeded the 1 million admissions mark, selling 1,012,884 admissions after ten days in release. Strong legs, given the reception and poor competition this month, were very likely, but now they're pretty much assured after its second week figures.

The Martian will exceed the ¥3 billion ($25 million+) hit milestone and 2 million admissions quite effortlessly, and expect it to finish closer to ¥3.5 billion ($30 million+) with 2.2/2.3 million admissions.

>Nobunaga Concerto continues to hold strong in second place, down less than 30% in its fourth weekend, selling a further 221,760 tickets over the weekend.

And after four weeks in release, the live-action adaptation of the historical time-travel manga has already broke through the ¥3 billion hit milestone, and has exceeded 2.5 million admissions. If its chances of reaching the ¥4 billion mark was in question, it's probably not anymore.

Nobunaga Concerto is very likely to exceed ¥4 billion ($35 million) now, and is on course to reach 3.2/3.3 million admissions. It's pretty rare for a January release to be having this type of box-office performance.

>Star Wars: The Force Awakens rises one spot and is back in the top 3 for its ninth weekend in release. After 59 days in release, it has almost reached 7 million admissions, and has broke into the Top 25 (#24) highest-grossing films of all-time.

>Born in the EXILE, a documentary highlighting the J Soul Brothers from the popular band, comes in fifth place in its debut weekend.

Only playing on 150 screens, it sold a solid 76,114 admissions over the weekend frame. More impressive, however, is that since opening on Friday, it's earned nearly ¥200 million with 144,000 admissions after three days. That means Friday represented a staggering 49% of the film's three day total, so I don't expect this one to stick around for long.

>Carol was the only wide opener, among many, to make the top 10.

Todd Haynes's critically-acclaimed picture, starring Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, sold 19,281 admissions over the weekend frame on just 58 screens. And since opening on fewer screens last Thursday, before expanding the next day (Friday), it's sold 41,072 admissions after four days in release.

Outside the Top 10, Selector Destructed WIXOSS: The Movie managed a 12th place start, while Steve Jobs came in 13th place (selling 23,467 admissions since opening on Friday) - both in limited release.

[Olive]

Cume as of Sunday

Star Wars 7 - 11.05B yen, 7.056M admissions

 Martian - 2.26B yen, 1.548M admiddions

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (02/27-28) (C) 2015 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation. All rights reserved Weekend Estimates (02/27-28)/2016年02月27日-2016年02月28日 01 (01) ¥204,000,000 ($1.79 million), -28%, ¥2,710,000,000 ($23.7 million), The Martian (Fox) WK4 02 (--) ¥155,000,000 ($1.35 million), 0, ¥155,000,000 ($1.35 million), The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate) NEW 03 (02) ¥137,000,000 ($1.20 million), -32%, ¥3,960,000,000 ($34.1 million), Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK6 04 (--) ¥85,000,000 ($745,000), 0, ¥85,000,000 ($745,000), The Finest Hours (Disney) NEW 05 (06) ¥81,000,000 ($710,000), +15%, ¥530,000,000 ($4.8 million), Born in the EXILE (Toho Video Division) WK3 06 (04) ¥70,000,000 ($615,000), -33%, ¥11,200,000,000 ($92.8 million), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK11 07 (03) ¥69,000,000 ($610,000), -52%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.9 million), Point Break (Warner Bros.) WK2 08 (08) ¥57,000,000 ($500,000), -03%, ¥1,325,000,000 ($11.3 million), Girls und Panzer: The Movie (Showgate) WK15 09 (05) ¥51,000,000 ($450,000), -40%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($11.8 million), Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) WK5 10 (--) ¥40,000,000 ($350,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($350,000), The Hateful Eight (Gaga) NEW >The Martian claims its fourth-consecutive week atop the box office, though The Black Devil and the White Prince came within striking distance in terms of admissions (possibly a <10,000 difference). But even if the latter had/does end up with a narrow victory in admissions (a very slim chance), the former's avg. ticket price has been very high that it'd still win the weekend in terms of gross. >The Finest Hours has a rather mediocre debut, but considering how it's performed elsewhere around the world, this figure is okay. And its weekend ticket sales pattern suggests it's skewing older, so its weekday business should be strong. If it can hang onto enough screens against the upcoming onslaught of major Spring releases, Japan could end up being its best international market (so far). >Star Wars: The Force Awakens appears to have fended off Point Break (which experienced an awful second weekend hold) over the weekend, which would have given it an eleventh-consecutive week in the Top 5, however... Born in the EXILE decided to increase which spoiled any chance The Force Awakens had of remaining in the Top 5. Still, it continues to perform extraordinarily well. It's pretty much achieved all that it was expected to, or could do, at this point, so the remaining earnings are just bonus. >The Hateful Eight looks to have cracked the Top 10 in barely wide release (119 screens), though Sherlock: The Abominable Bride's second weekend is very close based on my estimates. It'll probably come down to the avg. ticket prices to determine which one will be in the Top 10, though I believe The Hateful Eight has the advantage.

[Olive]

The Martian stayed on top for another weekend, 24-day cume reached 2.725B yen and 1.87M admissions

 

Ep7 has made 11.21B so far.

[druv10]

8 hours ago, Olive said:

The Martian stayed on top for another weekend, 24-day cume reached 2.725B yen and 1.87M admissions

 

Ep7 has made 11.21B so far.

 

Can it reach 12B? Seems out of reach, where do see it finishing?

 

Will it win the year? If not what could dethrone it?

Edited February 29, 2016 by druv10

[Quigley]

2 hours ago, druv10 said:

 

Can it reach 12B? Seems out of reach, where do see it finishing?

 

Will it win the year? If not what could dethrone it?

 

I'm gonna go for the elephant in the room: my profile picture

[druv10]

17 hours ago, Quigley said:

 

I'm gonna go for the elephant in the room: my profile picture

 

That would be one hell of a year for Disney in Japan. FD will be very big, Jungle Book, CA:CW with SM should be fairly big as well.  

[maxima]

On 1/20/2016 at 10:37 PM, cremino said:

Corpse

 

39th Japan Academy Prize - Nominations

Full List of Nominees

Sea Town Diary, directed by Koreeda Hirokazu, scored the most nominations with a stunning twelve nods. It's the favorite to sweep the awards this year, too. Last year, The Eternal Zero won in eight of its eleven nominated categories, including Picture and Director.

Animation of the Year should go to The Boy and the Beast or The Anthem of the Heart. Mamoru Hosoda's previous three films have all won the prize in their respective years, so the former is a good bet.

Best Foreign Language Picture is interesting this year. There's usually a clear frontrunner, or two, but this year's looks like a toss-up to me. I'm going with either American Sniper or Mad Max: Fury Road taking the prize home this year.

 

(Right, the result has been released, but need to point out the Prize politics)

 

You forgot a important fact: Movies with direct relation of Nippon TV (the broadcaster) has advantage.

Sea Town Diary and The Boy and the Beast are directly produced by Nippon TV. (So you will understand why Konan series has nomination in almost every year)

American Sniper has feature show on Nippon TV but Mad Max didn't.

 

Edited 21, March:

Speaking of Prize politics, seemed today's TAAF produced a big result upset:  The Boy and the Beast was NOT crowned in the TAAF2016 Anime of Year (Movie division) despite a Academy Prize win. And even more unexpected one, the  same prize go to Love Live! The School Idol Movie instead.

 

If you look at TAAF/TAA previous record, The Academy Prize's AoY winner is almost sure to take the crown in TAAF/TAA AoY in same year, or vice versa (excluding special cases like Frozen), It is particularly a big shocker as Mamoru Hosoda's previous three films have all won both AoY in same year too but not this.

Edited March 21, 2016 by maxima
TAAF Results

[maxima]

And speaking one interesting thing: Girls und Panzer: The Movie

 

As a very rare case of non-3D movie and a movie already running for 3 months, 4DX was recently added as lineup (The week returning to top 10, in Week 15). It is announced they will continue to run at least before entering Golden Week.

 

It is still unknown will they overtake K-On! Movie and Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie: Rebellion, or even dethroning Love Live! The School Idol Movie as the highest gross movie base on late night TV-series, but from the cumulative chart, it is quite possible.

 

Edited: Seemed more cinemas then I expected used the G&P as a benchmark to show off technology they got. Following 4DX, ULTIRA and imm sound joined the lineup recently as limited lineup..

Edited March 15, 2016 by maxima

[Quigley]

The Good Dinosaur comes out this weekend!

[Arlo245]

The Good Dinosaur needs $187 million in Japan to break even at $500 million. That's pretty much impossible. $20-30 million is the likely range. Shame it wasn't released in China, which would have increased its chances of $500 million. Hopefully video sales will help.

[AniNate]

It's a matter of minimizing losses at this point for TGD. Definitely looking like a smart move to give Zootopia the China release instead.

[Omni]

9 hours ago, Arlo245 said:

The Good Dinosaur needs $187 million in Japan to break even at $500 million. That's pretty much impossible. $20-30 million is the likely range. Shame it wasn't released in China, which would have increased its chances of $500 million. Hopefully video sales will help.

It's looking at the 2nd worst Pixar opening ever in Japan, even 25M looks a little optimistic now. And in China it would have performed just like in the other markets, especially considering Pixar's absurd weakness there. Even 400M has always been out of the question.