JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[The Gotham Bank]

Seems like Dragon Ball Super: Broly made between $8.7M-$9M (est.) for its 3-day start, which would sit between the openings of Battle of Gods and Resurrection F. Not bad but I expected it to be a bit higher, considering how the production seems higher for it and how it's a better movie than Resurrection F. Hopefully its legs will offer a final tally at the top of the DB movies.

Edited December 17, 2018 by The Gotham Bank

[Olive]

Broly 813M OW, -15.5% from F; 1.05B after 3 days

BR 431.5M yen -15% total 5.36B

[The Gotham Bank]

Apparently, Toei anticipates Broly to earn 5B yen overall.

[KP1025]

Here is Corpse's analysis of the major weekend openers and an update on Bohemian Rhapsody:

 

Quote

Actual for Dragon Ball Super: Broly:

Weekend: ¥813,000,000 ($7.2 million) / 639,000
3-Day: ¥1,050,805,000 ($9.3 million) / 824,205

The opening weekend (2-day) is slightly lower than I expected, especially since its admissions are higher than I expected, but the 3-day total was close. It was down 15% in gross compared to Resurrection F, but down only 11% in admissions.

It had an average ticket price of ¥1,272 over the weekend, which is actually down 5% versus Resurrection F's. The last film was the first domestic release to receive a premium format release, such as IMAX, so it was heavily promoted as such, so I suppose the decline in avg. ticket price isn't too surprising. Still, ¥1,272 is pretty much the same average as a regular 2D release, so clearly the 3D/4D/IMAX, etc. showings weren't very popular this time around.  

As for Toei's ¥5 billion total projection, take it with a grain of salt. Domestic studios very often over-project to create more appealing headlines to create additional hype around their films, but they rarely gross said figure. For the time being I would presume similar legs as the last film, so a total of ¥3.5 billion is most likely with a slight shot at ¥4 billion if New Year delivers for it.

 

Other than Broly, this weekend saw...

Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends debuted in fourth place, failing to stabilize the franchise once again this year, down 37% compared to last year's film. The franchise has struggled tremendously in gaining a new audience once its primary pre-school audience outgrew it in just a year or two, which I suppose isn't surprising given Japan's declining population and such.

The Grinch debuted in a disappointing fifth place, but no figures have been released for it yet. Either way, the film certainly shows with this slow start that Japanese audiences may not be all-in on Illumination quite yet. The opening weekend is likely over 50% below any of their recent films in the market, and perhaps their worst debut since the original Despicable Me.

Bohemian Rhapsody experienced its first weekend drop to date, but was only down 15%, and its sixth weekend is still much higher than its opening weekend... It's not slowing down yet.

 

[seduh]

And Harry Potter?

[titanic2187]

On 12/18/2018 at 1:46 AM, KP1025 said:

Here is Corpse's analysis of the major weekend openers and an update on Bohemian Rhapsody:

 

 

I guess BP will experience decent increase during year-end holiday window

[salvador-232]

19 hours ago, seduh said:

And Harry Potter?

Fantastic Beasts? Is running like 2% behind FB1 with two day less of release but this last weekend was 30% higher if DL is to be believed. 

 

Should still be in course to 60M USD as Corpse projected

[Tower]

(C)バードスタジオ／集英社 (C)「2018 ドラゴンボール超」製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (12/15-16)
01 (---) ¥812,697,700 ($7.2 million), 0, ¥1,050,805,000 ($9.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) NEW
02 (02) ¥431,538,700 ($3.8 million), -15%, ¥5,362,883,080 ($47.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK6
03 (01) ¥333,615,700 ($3.0 million), -35%, ¥4,602,139,800 ($41.0 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK4
04 (---) ¥251,396,400 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥268,885,800 ($2.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) NEW
05 (---) ¥221,477,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥255,353,600 ($2.3 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) NEW
06 (03) ¥x95,411,500 ($849,000), -30%, ¥404,144,900 ($3.6 million), It Comes (Toho) WK2
07 (04) ¥x64,458,900 ($573,000), -37%, ¥601,705,900 ($5.4 million), The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) WK3
08 (---) ¥x58,578,700 ($521,000), 0, ¥x72,455,700 ($645,000), Waiting for Spring (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (05) ¥x44,270,600 ($393,000), -45%, ¥449,862,300 ($4.0 million), Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku) WK3
10 (06) ¥x28,166,100 ($251,000), -29%, ¥1,830,608,600 ($16.2 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK7

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly ki-blasts its way to the top of the box office, selling an excellent 639,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 467 screens, and 824,205 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is 11% below the last film, Resurrection F, and up 14% compared to Battle of Gods.

While it may seem slightly disappointing that it fell below the past film, do remember that Resurrection F was the final Dragon Ball Z film and brought back the franchise's longtime fan favorite villain, Frieza. It was going to be very difficult for Broly to match/exceed its opening weekend, so coming just 11% below it is an accomplishment, in my opinion. And I'm sure it'll be naturally frontloaded like the past films in the franchise, but the rush factor may have been less prominent this time, so a similar total could be likely. I expect it'll gross between ¥3.5-4.0 billion ($30-35 million).

>Bohemian Rhapsody holds very strong in second place, and experiences its first weekend decline to date... Its sixth weekend is bigger than its opening weekend, and its second and third weekends... Its weekly gross remains at phenomenal as ever, once again earning ¥975 million-¥1.075 billion ($9/10 million), a figure it has grossed every single week since opening. Its six week multiplier is now the highest known number, even higher than films like Spirited Away or Frozen. 

Since it just refuses to slow down, at all, it's nearly impossible to project where it's headed, even six weeks into its release. If I had to make an educated guess based on how other ultra-leggy films performed from this point on, then I would expect a gross between ¥9-10 billion ($80-90 million), but it can certainly go higher because it has yet to receive any holiday boost.

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald saw a sizable drop in its fourth weekend, but it's still an improvement over its predecessor. Its four week total continues to trail the first film, though, behind about 6% now which is also an improvement versus last week. Either the Wizarding World fanbase is very loyal (likely), or its reception isn't as bad as in the U.S. (also likely). Expect a total around ¥7 billion ($60-65 million).

>Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends, the fifth film in the franchise, was unable to halt the rapid decline the series is suffering from, dropping 37% compared to last year's film. It sold 222,930 admissions over the weekend frame on 368 screens, and 238,712 admissions since opening on Friday. I would say that given the low opening weekend that legs are probably going to be better than the previous entries, but... none of them have proved this to be true yet, so ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million) is likely the ceiling here. 

>The Grinch still hasn't had its weekend gross or admissions released yet, but it debuted in a disappointing fifth place (EDIT: Weekend Actual Updated Above). Since opening on Friday, it sold 210,923 admissions across 387 screens. This is by far the worst opening for an Illumination film since the original Despicable Me 8-years ago. It seems like Japanese audiences aren't fully committed to Illumination yet given this result, although, one could argue the property itself just had little appeal. We'll see how receptive moviegoers are to the next "original" Illumination release before making any sure comments.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Tower

[xxoo]

5 hours ago, Tower said:

>The Grinch still hasn't had its weekend gross or admissions released yet, but it debuted in a disappointing fifth place. Since opening on Friday, it sold 210,923 admissions across 387 screens. This is by far the worst opening for an Illumination film since the original Despicable Me 8-years ago. It seems like Japanese audiences aren't fully committed to Illumination yet given this result, although, one could argue the property itself just had little appeal. We'll see how receptive moviegoers are to the next "original" Illumination release before making any sure comments.

So does this means the 135 Million total given by universal will be without Japan ? 

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, xxoo said:

So does this means the 135 Million total given by universal will be without Japan ? 

 

Universal's $135 million OS total includes the studio's 3-day figure (Friday-Sunday) of $2,474,678 from Japan. Corpse is saying the exact 2-day figure for Saturday-Sunday hadn't been officially released, hence the 2-day estimate still being ¥220,000,000 ($1.967 million). What he does know is that the Grinch has managed 210,923 admissions to date since opening on Friday.

 

EDIT: Corpse has updated his weekend chart with actuals for the Grinch: ¥221,477,000 ($1.98 million).

Edited December 20, 2018 by KP1025

[Stewart]

(C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
01 (---) ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥595,000,000 ($5.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥447,000,000 ($4.0 million), -45%, ¥1,825,000,000 ($16.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥379,000,000 ($3.4 million), -12%, ¥6,200,000,000 ($54.9 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥233,000,000 ($2.1 million), -30%, ¥5,075,000,000 ($45.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥177,000,000 ($1.6 million), -20%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($2.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000 ($595,000), -31%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3

Note: Sunday is Emperor's Day, a national holiday, and since it falls on a Sunday this year, then Monday will be declared a national holiday as well.

>Ralph Breaks the Internet appears positioned to debut atop the box office, but it's not going to do so very easily. Its Saturday pre-sales are slightly below Coco and just slightly better than The Incredibles 2, so it could certainly miss the ¥500 million mark considering both of those films also did. However, I'm expecting a strong Sunday for all films since Monday will be a national holiday this year, so I'm going to predict it just barely gets there. 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly will probably slip to second place after its big opening weekend, but Saturday pre-sales suggest it could managed a better second weekend hold than its predecessor, and decline under 50%. This would be particularly important for the film as it heads into the upcoming holidays with the hope of becoming the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>Bohemian Rhapsody at long last seems like it could be slowing down, but definitely not very much, and it'll probably increase next week. 

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER, the entry in the overall franchise, could debut as high as third place this weekend. The franchise has seen a slight uptick in the past year or two, and this one is tracking a little ahead of last December's release (which opened to ¥359 million). 

>A Star is Born may miss the Top 5, or fifth place is as high as it's going to debut. But don't be alarmed. While its Friday results and Saturday pre-sales don't suggest a breakout, a debut around the forecast this time of year would still likely result in a ¥2 billion+ ($20 million) total. Is it possible that Bohemian Rhapsody stunted its potential? Maybe, but I wouldn't have predicted much higher regardless.

>Nisekoi: False Love is going to bomb. Toho was by far the biggest distributor of the year once again, their eleventh or twelfth consecutive year on top, but they've had an incredibly dismal Fall/Winter season.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

(C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
01 (---) ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥595,000,000 ($5.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥447,000,000 ($4.0 million), -45%, ¥1,825,000,000 ($16.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥379,000,000 ($3.4 million), -12%, ¥6,200,000,000 ($54.9 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥233,000,000 ($2.1 million), -30%, ¥5,075,000,000 ($45.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥177,000,000 ($1.6 million), -20%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($2.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000 ($595,000), -31%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3

Note: Sunday is Emperor's Day, a national holiday, and since it falls on a Sunday this year, then Monday will be declared a national holiday as well.

>Ralph Breaks the Internet appears positioned to debut atop the box office, but it's not going to do so very easily. Its Saturday pre-sales are slightly below Coco and just slightly better than The Incredibles 2, so it could certainly miss the ¥500 million mark considering both of those films also did. However, I'm expecting a strong Sunday for all films since Monday will be a national holiday this year, so I'm going to predict it just barely gets there. 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly will probably slip to second place after its big opening weekend, but Saturday pre-sales suggest it could managed a better second weekend hold than its predecessor, and decline under 50%. This would be particularly important for the film as it heads into the upcoming holidays with the hope of becoming the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>Bohemian Rhapsody at long last seems like it could be slowing down, but definitely not very much, and it'll probably increase next week. 

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER, the entry in the overall franchise, could debut as high as third place this weekend. The franchise has seen a slight uptick in the past year or two, and this one is tracking a little ahead of last December's release (which opened to ¥359 million). 

>A Star is Born may miss the Top 5, or fifth place is as high as it's going to debut. But don't be alarmed. While its Friday results and Saturday pre-sales don't suggest a breakout, a debut around the forecast this time of year would still likely result in a ¥2 billion+ ($20 million) total. Is it possible that Bohemian Rhapsody stunted its potential? Maybe, but I wouldn't have predicted much higher regardless.

>Nisekoi: False Love is going to bomb. Toho was by far the biggest distributor of the year once again, their eleventh or twelfth consecutive year on top, but they've had an incredibly dismal Fall/Winter season.

+ $ 40M is possible for Ralph?

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

+ $ 40M is possible for Ralph?

 

I'd say so. 9-10x multiplier is not uncommon for animated films (especially with upcoming holidays). Also, both Coco and Incredibles 2 reached over $40 million with similar openings.

[GraceRandolph]

So ASIB is bombing in Japan? Oh wow... oh wow

[pepsa]

12 hours ago, GraceRandolph said:

So ASIB is bombing in Japan? Oh wow... oh wow

2m isn't super low and out of all markets this is the most leggy one so there is a chance (maybe small) that it get a great multi (12-15) and makes a good amount in the end.

[KP1025]

14 minutes ago, pepsa said:

2m isn't super low and out of all markets this is the most leggy one so there is a chance (maybe small) that it get a great multi (12-15) and makes a good amount in the end.

 

Very true. Just look at Bohemian Rhapsody. Only opened to $3.2 million and will end up around $80-90 million in total. I don't expect anywhere close to the same legs for ASIB, but it's still way too early to write it off as a bomb in Japan. Even $20 million would still be a decent gross for a Hollywood film in Japan (consider most CBMs/action films only make around $10-15 million over there).

[titanic2187]

Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/22-23, 24)

(C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Estimates (12/22-23)
01 (---) ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), 0, ¥580,000,000 ($5.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥414,000,000 ($3.7 million), -49%, ¥1,825,000,000 ($16.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥406,000,000 ($3.6 million), -06%, ¥6,225,000,000 ($55.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥233,000,000 ($2.1 million), -30%, ¥5,075,000,000 ($45.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥525,000,000 ($4.7 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -46%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($675,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($945,000), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x59,000,000 ($530,000), -39%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3

3-Day Emperor's Day Holiday Weekend Estimates (12/22-24)
01 (---) ¥765,000,000 ($6.9 million), 0, ¥860,000,000 ($7.7 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (02) ¥592,000,000 ($5.3 million), +38%, ¥6,405,000,000 ($56.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
03 (01) ¥591,000,000 ($5.3 million), -27%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($17.9 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
04 (---) ¥520,000,000 ($4.7 million), 0, ¥520,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥357,000,000 ($3.2 million), +07%, ¥5,200,000,000 ($46.3 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥254,000,000 ($2.3 million), +15%, ¥630,000,000 ($5.7 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥211,000,000 ($1.9 million), -16%, ¥525,000,000 ($4.8 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x86,000,000 ($773,000), --09%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3

>Ralph Breaks the Internet opens about on par with Coco and The Incredibles 2. It'll have strong legs, but I'm doubtful that it'll match the excellent legs of either Pixar releases this year. I'm expecting a finish around ¥4 billion ($35 million) rather than ¥4.8/4.9 billion. This would be a nice 30-35% increase over the original film, but this would also become Walt Disney Animation's fourth-consecutive decrease in the market (Frozen > Big Hero 6 > Zootopia > Moana > Ralph 2). 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly fell a little higher than expected going into the weekend, but it still held slightly better than its predecessor. A total around ¥3.5 billion ($30 million) is still the likely target, but let's see if the upcoming New Year boost can give it enough of a boost to outgross Resurrection's F's¥3.74 billion to become the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>Bohemian Rhapsody declines for a second week, but... it experienced a single digit drop, and thanks to Monday, it's probably up for the overall week. It's showing some hints, not signs yet, of slowing down (its seventh weekend is still bigger than its opening, second, and third weekends!), but it's still difficult to project where the film is headed. A total around ¥10 billion ($90 million) seems attainable, and I'll be close to declaring it a lock if it has one more week like this.

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER came in above the previous two films this past year, and was up a bit over last December's release as well. Very impressive, and even though the franchise is one of the most frontloaded, it'll exceed ¥1 billion pretty easily once again. This release marks the 61st theatrical release in the long-running series.

>A Star is Born got off to a rather slow start. It'll have great legs due to the time of year and given its genre, but ¥2 billion (a bit under $20 million) is probably the ceiling. I feel like this film would have benefited more with a March/April release, the typical season that Oscar films are released in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if it simply being an award contender instead of a winner right now will ultimately limit it.

[Noiret Jak]

FB2 is it efficient compared to the first?

For the moment it is at $ 46.3M, it will finish at how much?

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, Noiret Jak said:

FB2 is it efficient compared to the first?

For the moment it is at $ 46.3M, it will finish at how much?

Last statement by corpse was 7b Yen, which is about $60-65m.

 

Currently it's about 0.5b Yen behind FB1 at the same point in their run, and in Dollar it's about 45m to 49m. FB1 finished with 7.3b Yen ($64m), but the exchange rates seem to be a bit better this time around, giving FB2 the chance to maybe even match part one in terms of Dollar even if it falls short in Yen. it definately should be in the same region as the last one.

[Tower]

(C)2018 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (12/22-23+24)
01 (---) ¥453,635,600 ($4.1 million), 0, ¥796,135,400 ($7.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥419,225,100 ($3.8 million), -48%, ¥2,037,801,100 ($18.2 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥389,076,700 ($3.5 million), -10%, ¥6,444,324,080 ($57.0 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥389,000,000 ($3.5 million), 0, ¥516,651,800 ($4.6 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥229,084,200 ($2.1 million), -31%, ¥5,201,709,900 ($46.3 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥342,785,800 ($3.1 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥148,921,600 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥569,097,300 ($5.1 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥135,591,700 ($1.2 million), -46%, ¥512,038,400 ($4.6 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($675,000), 0, ¥147,602,100 ($1.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x58,991,600 ($530,000), -39%, ¥586,702,000 ($5.3 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3

NOTE: Cumulative Totals as of Monday, 12/24.

>Ralph Breaks the Internet comes in 33.5% ahead of the original Wreck-It Ralph, selling 350,373 admissions over the weekend across 468 screens. And since opening on Friday, it has sold an impressive 625,699 admissions over its first four days in release. 

This is a good debut, no doubt, but it also comes with potentially troubling signs: It came in above Zootopia by 1%, avoiding to become Walt Disney Animation's lowest debut since the first Wreck-It Ralph, but it's incredibly unlikely that it'll come anywhere near the legs of Zootopia which achieved one of the ten best multipliers on record. So, Ralph 2 could result in their fourth consecutive decrease in the market if it can't get past Moana. Moana grossed ¥5.17 billion, and while that mark is within reach with Ralph 2's opening, it will require a leggier performance. At the moment, I'd expect a total around ¥4.5 billion ($40 million). That's good, maybe great considering it'd be almost a 50% increase over the original, but again, probably not the downward trend Disney would want in the market. 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly fell a little higher than expected going into the weekend, but it still held slightly better than its predecessor and missed the 50% drop. Its second weekend is 10% lower than Resurrection F's, which is a percentage improvement over its opening weekend being 15% lower. But more importantly, in part due to one extra day in release, its running total is 2% ahead of its predecessor's. If it can maintain a similar run from this point forward, it stands a good chance of becoming the highest grossing film in the Dragon Ball franchise, aiming to reach ¥3.75 billion (about $35 million). 

>Bohemian Rhapsody declines for a second week, but still achieved an incredible weekend hold, earning itself a seventh weekend greater than its opening weekend, second weekend and third weekends... It has begun to show a slight hint of perhaps slowing down, or at least drop back down to its first week earnings..., but it'll receive a huge boost over New Year's next week. I see no obstacles on its path toward the ¥10 billion ($90 million) milestone.

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER, the 61st theatrical release in the long-running franchise, delivered what I believe is the second or third biggest debut in franchise history, at least in the past 20 years or so, selling 313,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 332 screens. And after its first three days in release, it sold an impressive 422,433 admissions. This franchise is one of the most frontloaded in the market, but it should finish near ¥1.5 billion (about $15 million), a very impressive total for an entry in the series. 

>Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald is still performing very well, although it now has fallen a bit behind the original after tracking very closely (even ahead at a couple points) for over a month. It's still probably on track to reach the ¥7 billion (about $65 million) milestone, but I can see it falling just short. But even if it misses that mark, it'll still finish with a similar total as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (¥6.86 billion), and finish within 10% of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. And that's an impressive achievement given how it dropped off in nearly every other market. 

>A Star is Born hasn't had its actual weekend figure itself released yet (so the number above is an estimate), but its total as of Monday was released (above). It sold 249,669 admissions over its first four days in release across 396 screens. The film got off to a fairly slow start, though, but I wouldn't rule out a respectable total just yet since it's certainly the type of film that could spawn great/excellent legs over New Year. I'd expect a total near ¥2 billion ($15-20 million). I believe this film would have benefited a bit more with a Spring release like most Oscar bait receive in the market, during/following the award season.

>Nisekoi: False Love hasn't had its weekend figure released yet either, just its four day total (121,709 admissions), but it's a pretty big bomb. It wasn't expected to be a hit or anything, but it earned in its four days in release what it should have grossed over just the weekend frame itself. 
Not a good close to the year for Toho, but their first 9/10 months were so strong, they didn't really need a breakout this month.