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Corpse:

 

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(C)Marvel Studios 20

Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
01 (---) ¥525,000,000 ($4.7 million), 0, ¥730,000,000 ($6.5 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥465,000,000 ($4.2 million), -24%, ¥2,075,000,000 ($18.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.2 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), -13%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (03) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), -26%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.9 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($895,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
07 (04) ¥x96,000,000 ($860,000), -40%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (05) ¥x92,000,000 ($820,000), -37%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($670,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
10 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($490,000), -30%, ¥12,505,000,000 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19


>Captain Marvel is on course to debut at the #1 spot this weekend, dethroning Doraemon which seemed poised to reign atop the weekend box office until April. And not only will Ms. Marvel likely take the #1 spot, her film is well on track to claim the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film outside of the Avengers/Spider-Man franchises. 

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration will likely slip to second place in its third weekend, but pre-sales are indicating it might match/beat the third weekend of last year's film. If it does drop around 25%, and obviously any hold that's better than that, its chances of reaching the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone go up significantly. 

>Precure Miracle Universe is the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, and it's looking to continue the success the series regained last year and should debut with one of the biggest debuts in the franchise.
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Woah, I was expecting Japan to the one OS market that bucked the (relatively) big CM opening trend. Unless reception sucks $20M+ should be quite possible, yeah?

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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

Woah, I was expecting Japan to the one OS market that bucked the (relatively) big CM opening trend. Unless reception sucks $20M+ should be quite possible, yeah?

Looking at the multipliers for recent CBMs, I think over $20 million is likely.

 

All of these multipliers are off the two-day weekend numbers.

 

Aquaman: ~5.0x (still in theaters)

Venom: 5.1x

Ant-Man 2: 4.1x

Deadpool 2: 4.8x

Infinity War: 5.6x

Black Panther: 5.0x

Justice League: 5.4x

Thor: Ragnarok: 5.0x

Homecoming: 6.2x

Wonder Woman: 5.0x

GotG2: 4.6x

Logan: 4.5x

Dr. Strange: 4.7x

 

The very low end gives $19.2 million while the very high end gives $29.1 million. Somewhere between the two is what is most likely to happen. 

 

 

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For comparisons to other Marvel/DC films.

 

Quote
Here is how Captain Marvel performed on Saturday compared to every Marvel/DC film that has opened above ¥300 million since 2015 (at the usual locations = two-thirds of market):

92% higher than Black Panther 
79% higher than Aquaman 
50% higher than Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice 
43% higher than Deadpool 
33% higher than Deadpool 2 
28% higher than Doctor Strange 
27% higher than Suicide Squad 
12% higher than Captain America: Civil War 
04% higher than Venom 
03% higher than Spider-Man: Homecoming 
_________
24% lower than Avengers: Infinity War 
33% lower than Avengers: Age of Ultron

 

 

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I just found out that The Lion King musical is the most successful play ever in Japan with over 12k performances and a 20 year run (that's still going.) 

Hopefully this means TLK over $100m, cause I'm gonna need it for my club 🤣

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2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I just found out that The Lion King musical is the most successful play ever in Japan with over 12k performances and a 20 year run (that's still going.) 

Hopefully this means TLK over $100m, cause I'm gonna need it for my club 🤣

What about Aladdin in Japan? Did the last trailer created any kind of buzz? Or Japanese are not too much into that story? What could be potential numbers for it in Japan?

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10 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

What about Aladdin in Japan? Did the last trailer created any kind of buzz? Or Japanese are not too much into that story? What could be potential numbers for it in Japan?


I'm not too sure. Maybe @KP1025 could help with that? I know they tend to enjoy the Disney nostalgia films, and also enjoy musically inclined movies. My personal guess would be in the $50 million range. 

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For Aladdin, Corpse is predicting between ¥5 billion- ¥10 billion. Same with The Lion King. 

 

Aladdin was the highest grossing of the Disney Renaissance films in Japan actually, so I think it has the potential to gross close to Beauty and the Beast. Although the latter did have Emma Watson (household name in Japan because of the Potter mania there) and a more attractive fairy tale castle setting.

 

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5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

For Aladdin, Corpse is predicting between ¥5 billion- ¥10 billion. Same with The Lion King. 

 

Aladdin was the highest grossing of the Disney Renaissance films in Japan actually, so I think it has the potential to gross close to Beauty and the Beast. Although the latter did have Emma Watson (household name in Japan because of the Potter mania there) and a more attractive fairy tale castle setting.

 


Interesting. Japan and its varying interests never cease to amaze me. Hardest market to predict, IMO. 

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Corpse:

 

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(C)Marvel Studios 20

Weekend Estimates (03/16-17)
01 (---) ¥460,000,000 ($4.1 million), 0, ¥665,000,000 ($5.9 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥434,000,000 ($3.9 million), -29%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($18.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥270,000,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥270,000,000 ($2.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥224,000,000 ($2.0 million), -17%, ¥2,015,000,000 ($18.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
06 (03) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.9 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
07 (04) ¥x91,000,000 ($815,000), -43%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
09 (05) ¥x80,000,000 ($715,000), -45%, ¥435,000,000 ($3.9 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
10 (06) ¥x54,000,000 ($485,000), -31%, ¥12,505,000,000 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19


>Captain Marvel likely debuted atop the weekend box-office (it will have to settle for second place in admissions though), but it was quite frontloaded over the weekend and came in below what early ticket sales were suggesting. Still, if it can remain above ¥448.8 million with actuals, it'll achieve the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film outside of the Avengers and Spider-Man franchises. 

As long as it doesn't behave more frontloaded than the average Marvel film, it should finish between the ¥2.5-¥3.0 billion ($22-27 million) range. If it can reach the ¥3 billion milestone, which will be a significant challenge, it would join the original Batman as the only non-Avengers/Spider-Man film to reach that mark.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration probably fell to second place in its third weekend, but it will claim its third weekend consecutive weekend atop the weekend box-office in admissions by a comfortable margin (likely 50,000+). Its third weekend is slightly below last year's film, though it does continue to narrow the gap between it and the franchise record setter. A total around ¥4.5 billion ($40 million) is still very likely, and ¥5 billion ($45 million) is still possible. 

>Precure Miracle Universe is the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, and it continues to improve upon the renewed box-office success the series has enjoyed over the past year or so. I'll wait for actuals before doing some research, but I'm pretty confident this is easily one of the biggest (likely Top 3/5) debuts in the overall franchise. 

>You Shine in the Moonlight performed much better in its debut than pre-sales suggested. Romantic films tend to have strong legs this time of year, and this opening could be high enough for it to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody is in a close race for the #10 spot with the debut of the latest Shimajiro film. I believe it has the slight edge to round out the top 10 (its nineteenth-consecutive week there) due to its wider release, and higher avg. ticket price, but we'll definitely need actuals to decide this one.
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Also Marvel/DC comparisons:

 

Marvel & DC Box Office History (1980-)

Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥672.4 million ($6.2 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018) 
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)

¥460.0 million ($4.1 million) - Captain Marvel (2019) *Estimate*
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016) 
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)

¥439.0 million ($3.9 million) - Venom (2018)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)

¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥375.1 million ($3.4 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥322.2 million ($2.9 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (2019)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)

¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)

¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)

¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)

¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)

¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)


Totals:
¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) - Spider-Man (2002) 
¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007) 
¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004) 
¥3.74 billion ($34.1 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥3.61 billion ($46.2 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥3.21 billion ($26.0 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) 
¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) 

¥3.00 billion ($20.0 million) - Batman (1989)
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥2.63 billion ($24.1 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥2.57 billion ($26.4 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥2.55 billion ($12.0 million) - Superman II (1981)
¥2.25 billion ($20.0 million) - Venom (2018)
¥2.04 billion ($19.2 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥1.97 billion ($24.2 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥1.85 billion ($18.1 million) - X-Men (2000)
¥1.80 billion ($16.3 million) - Deadpool 2 (2018)
¥1.80 billion ($15.9 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥1.76 billion ($17.0 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥1.60 billion ($15.8 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥1.56 billion ($14.5 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥1.55 billion ($14.0 million) - Aquaman (2019) [5 Weeks in Release]
¥1.53 billion ($14.3 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥1.50 billion ($11.9 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥1.40 billion ($14.1 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥1.32 billion ($11.7 million) - Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018)
¥1.21 billion ($10.0 million) - Ant-Man (2015) 
¥1.20 billion ($13.7 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥1.15 billion ($10.2 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017) 
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥1.03 billion ($10.1 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
 
¥970 million ($9.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥950 million ($10.1 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥900 million ($9.3 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥900 million ($9.8 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥850 million ($8.2 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥830 million ($6.9 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥820 million ($8.4 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥800 million ($8.9 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥750 million ($8.0 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥740 million ($6.8 million) - Logan (2017)
¥725 million ($6.9 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)

¥700 million ($6.8 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥650 million ($6.3 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014) 
¥550 million ($7.0 million) - Thor (2011)

¥420 million ($4.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥400 million ($5.0 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥370 million ($3.3 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥240 million ($2.0 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)
¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Green Lantern (2011)


Marvel/DC

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Question for our Japan experts....

How come the opening weekend record hasn't been broken? It seems that the OW records are being broken every few years (even in establish countries like the US and UK), but Revenge of the Sith has held the record (in USD at least) since 2005. Is there any particular reason for this?

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1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

Question for our Japan experts....

How come the opening weekend record hasn't been broken? It seems that the OW records are being broken every few years (even in establish countries like the US and UK), but Revenge of the Sith has held the record (in USD at least) since 2005. Is there any particular reason for this?

From Corpse:

 

"Previews started to become less common in 2008, then Eiren (Motion Picture Association of Japan) decided they wouldn't be included in opening weekends anymore in 2010. And since then, previews (which includes midnights) have become a thing of the past with almost no film receiving any with the exception of very, and I mean very, fan-driven films such as late-night anime films getting a few theaters on board once or twice a year (if that).

In some situations, previews even included an entire weekend's worth of showings the prior week. Opening weekends these days appear much less "impressive" as a result, and will likely never challenge the very top of the charts."

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3 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

From Corpse:

 

"Previews started to become less common in 2008, then Eiren (Motion Picture Association of Japan) decided they wouldn't be included in opening weekends anymore in 2010. And since then, previews (which includes midnights) have become a thing of the past with almost no film receiving any with the exception of very, and I mean very, fan-driven films such as late-night anime films getting a few theaters on board once or twice a year (if that).

In some situations, previews even included an entire weekend's worth of showings the prior week. Opening weekends these days appear much less "impressive" as a result, and will likely never challenge the very top of the charts."


That's very interesting, and makes something like Last Jedi's $14.4m OW even more impressive. 

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Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (03/16-17)
01 (01) ¥437,689,000 ($3.9 million), -28%, ¥2,057,055,800 ($18.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
02 (---) ¥427,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥615,115,100 ($5.5 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
03 (---) ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥248,351,400 ($2.2 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥227,142,000 ($2.0 million), -16%, ¥2,035,279,800 ($18.3 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (---) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥199,536,600 ($1.8 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
06 (03) ¥136,303,900 ($1.2 million), -28%, ¥1,116,565,600 ($10.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
07 (04) ¥x93,549,900 ($841,000), -41%, ¥489,181,200 ($4.4 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($760,000), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW *Est*
09 (05) ¥x84,534,600 ($760,000), -42%, ¥454,973,500 ($4.1 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
10 (06) ¥x52,832,600 ($474,000), -33%, ¥12,504,559,180 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19
11 (07) ¥x52,412,750 ($471,000), -25%, ¥594,539,650 ($5.3 million), My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkatsu) WK4
12 (---) ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), 0, ¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), Shimajiro: Journey to Hero Land (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW *Est*
13 (08) ¥x36,221,700 ($326,000), -46%, ¥1,197,247,000 ($10.7 million), Fortuna's Eye (Toho) WK5
14 (11) ¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), -38%, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ultraman R/B: Select! The Crystal of Bond (Shochiku) WK2 *Est.*
15 (13) ¥x31,380,100 ($282,000), -39%, ¥4,465,307,000 ($40.8 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK9
16 (12) ¥x30,075,700 ($270,000), -47%, ¥1,404,747,320 ($12.8 million), City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex) WK6


>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration managed to claim its third-consecutive weekend atop the weekend box-office with a good hold, one that allowed it to achieve the second biggest third weekend in the franchise (5% below last year's film). After three weeks in release, the thirty-ninth entry in the long-running franchise exceeded ¥2 billion and is now running 12% behind last year's record-setting release -- a slight improvement over the 13% it trailed last week, and 17% upon its debut. Expect a finish between ¥4.5-5.0 billion ($40-45 million).

>Captain Marvel was the favorite to take the #1 spot this weekend, ending what's almost certain to be a month long reign atop the weekend box-office for Doraemon, but ultimately proved to be very frontloaded and had to settle for second place. Marvel's latest sold 279,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 754 screens, and reached 408,225 admissions since Friday. Regardless of it failing to reach its potential heights, this is still a good debut that should result in a finish around ¥2.5 billion ($20-25 million).

>Precure Miracle Universe, the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, debuted in third place and set a franchise opening weekend record for a Spring release in the franchise (the series has a new film open every Spring and Fall). The film sold a solid 221,579 admissions over the weekend on 230 screens. This is a very frontloaded franchise, but this debut should be enough to result in another ¥1 billion release for the franchise.

>Tonde Saitama continues to do excellent business, and exceeded the ¥2 billion milestone in its fourth weekend of release and is already up to a 7.8 multiplier. This film is very likely to reach the ¥3 billion ($25 million+) milestone now, and I honestly can't remember the last live-action Toei film that grossed that much -- it's been several years, I'm almost positive, and I'll look into it when the time comes.  

>You Shine in the Moonlight debuts in fifth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 299 screens, and reached 166,885 admissions since Friday. This certainly isn't a good opening, it's quite mediocre, but it is noticeably better than pre-sales suggested.

>Bohemian Rhapsody was in a very, very close race to earn its nineteenth-consecutive weekend in the top 10, and it did just that by a margin of just ¥419,850 ($3,700). It ties Frozen as the seventh film with the most recorded consecutive weekends in the top 10. Its phenomenal performance (remember that it achieved the highest known multiplier ever for a wide release several weeks back) is drawing to a close, and I expect it'll finish with about ¥12.7 billion ($114 million).

NOTE: With the expanded Weekend Actuals, it's going to be common for some films (mostly from independent studios) to have estimated weekend grosses and even totals. Any film with *Est.* after it will be one of these cases.

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CM

$4.7/$6.5 projection

$4.1/$5.9 estimates

$3.8/$5.5 actuals

😊

 

I don't think it will leg it past $20-22m but that's a great result and higher than many CBMs.

Edited by a2k

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