Jump to content

Recommended Posts

14 hours ago, bladels said:

It can reach $510M if not for the super early Bluray release date, we have to wait and see.

 

Yes i've heard Disney anticipated the "home media" release of the movie, but at least by now we can be 100% sure that the movie will finish with $500 million domestic. Do you think $1.250  billion is still in play?!

Edited by CalifoBoy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

 

Yes i've heard Disney anticipated the "home media" release of the movie, but at least by now we can be 100% sure that the movie will finish with $500 million domestic. Do you think $1.250  billion is still in play?!

 

It needs around $105 million from Japan to hit $1.25 billion, so it is very much possible with its current trajectory. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

It needs around $105 million from Japan to hit $1.25 billion, so it is very much possible with its current trajectory. 

 

BatB stands at 70 million in Japan right?! i think it's safe to say it could add more $10/$15 million in North America since it has only droped 5% from last weekend, and around $35/$40 million overseas. What you think?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

 

BatB stands at 70 million in Japan right?! i think it's safe to say it could add more $10/$15 million in North America since it has only droped 5% from last weekend, and around $35/$40 million overseas. What you think?!

 

I think another $10 million is the maximum domestic, as it will likely drop hard as soon as the Blu-ray releases. Japan should add another $35-40 million. This next weekend's drop will give us a better idea of how it is likely to hold going forward.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Corpse @ World of KJ

 

Weekend Estimates (05/20-21)
01 (01) ¥414,000,000 ($3.7 million), -28%, ¥8,825,000,000 ($78.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK5
02 (03) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -36%, ¥6,100,000,000 ($54.5 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK6
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) NEW
04 (02) ¥147,000,000 ($1.3 million), -41%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK2
05 (04) ¥141,000,000 ($1.2 million), -38%, ¥3,425,000,000 ($31.1 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK4
06 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Arrival (Sony) NEW
07 (05) ¥94,000,000 ($840,000), -24%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($12.6 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho) WK4
08 (06) ¥66,000,000 ($595,000), -45%, ¥750,000,000 ($6.7 million), Memory (Toho) WK3
09 (---) ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), 0, ¥55,000,000 ($495,000), Your Eyes (Nikkatsu) NEW
10 (07) ¥39,000,000 ($350,000), -45%, ¥1,470,000,000 ($13.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Alien Shiriri (Toho) WK6


>Beauty and the Beast successfully defended its position atop the box office, to claim its fifth-consecutive week at #1. It's hard to be "disappointed" with a sub-30% weekend hold, but the past dailies and this weekend's drop probably means the film isn't going to surpass Alice in Wonderland to become Disney's highest-grossing live-action film. It's doable, but it'll be an uphill climb for sure.  

It's still going to exceed ¥10 billion (~$90 million), no question about that and it's always a major achievement, and it will likely hit ¥11 billion (~$100 million), too, but it'll take several weeks, perhaps a month+, to challenge the top-tier of Disney live-action films -- Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (¥10.90 billion), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (¥11.63 billion), and finally, Alice in Wonderland (¥11.80 billion).  

>Peach Girl, along with the rest of the Top 5, is in a very close race to see which film comes in second place and each subsequent ranking from #2-#5; they could all be less than ¥20 million ($180,000) apart. Wherever it places, its estimated debut is fine, and Shochiku is likely okay with it. The film is a live-action adaptation of shojo manga of the same name directed by Koji Shintoku.

>Arrival didn't breakout as I was beginning to anticipate, but it still managed to sell ~27% of its weekend tickets, and that's nothing to scoff at and it surely would have opened a bit higher had Sony given it a wider release. Japan's results will at least get the film over the $100 million overseas and $200 million worldwide marks.

>The bottom two spots in the Top 10 are very contested, and it could be any two of holdover Crayon Shin-chan, or the two openers, Your Eyes and Tatara Samurai. I believe Your Eyes will make it since a significant portion of its theaters are in rural regions, and they're largely unrepresented. It certainly did well enough in the urban regions, Kanto and Kansai, to be Top 10 eligible if the rural areas delivered.

 

 

Looks like BatB fell harder than he forecast but still a good hold.  Here's hoping it stabilizes to take out AiW.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last Sunday was a discount "Cinema Day" for Toho theaters, so the drop isn't entirely too surprising. Next weekend's drop should hopefully be softer. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weekend actuals

BATB 434.5M , -24% , 8.92B yen

  • Like 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Olive said:

Weekend actuals

BATB 434.5M , -24% , 8.92B yen

 

Went up! Extra 270K in the bank. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Corpse 

Quote

 

 

A bit of a slow, boring week, so I wasn't too motivated to post a Weekend Forecast this weekend. May and June are two of the weaker months of the year, so don't expect anything exciting until July rolls around.

As for this weekend, though:

Beauty and the Beast goes unchallenged once again and will claim its sixth-consecutive weekend atop the box office, probably earning ¥325-350 million ($3.0-3.2 million) over the weekend. Its six week total should be around ¥9.6 billion ($85 million) after Sunday.

Second and third place this weekend is a bit off a toss-up between the top two openers, but one is favored slightly over the other:

First, coming in the likely second place position comes the latest film Yoji Yamada film, What a Wonderful Family! 2, debuting this weekend looking to deliver a modest debut between ¥125-150 million ($1.1-1.3 million) based on its Saturday admissions. That's a little on the low end of most Yamada films, but since his films skew very old they typically rely on weekdays rather than weekends. This marks the 85 year-old's 84th theatrical release.

And the likely third place film this weekend will probably go to To Each His Own, Toho's live-action adaptation of the award-winning novel. Based on Saturday's figures, it'll come in around ¥110-130 million ($1.0-1.2 million).

 

So about 20-26% drop for BatB

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is a prediction from corpse. It could have even done better than that. Mimoron sunday to sunday drop looks only around 17%.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Corpse :
 
Image
(C)2017 Disney Enterprises, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Estimates (05/27-28)
01 (01) ¥339,000,000 ($3.0 million), -22%, ¥9,625,000,000 ($85.2 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK6
02 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), What a Wonderful Family! 2 (Shochiku) NEW
03 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), To Each His Own (Toho) NEW

04 (02) ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), -29%, ¥6,350,000,000 ($56.7 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK7
05 (04) ¥97,000,000 ($870,000), -33%, ¥3,675,000,000 ($33.3 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK5
06 (03) ¥93,000,000 ($835,000), -37%, ¥875,000,000 ($7.9 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK3
07 (05) ¥92,000,000 ($825,000), -35%, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) WK2
08 (08) ¥77,000,000 ($690,000), -21%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.1 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho) WK5
09 (06) ¥76,000,000 ($680,000), -40%, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million, Your Eyes (Nikkatsu) WK2
10 (07) ¥65,000,000 ($585,000), -39%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Arrival (Sony) WK2
 
 
Based on this past weekend's estimates, I have Beauty and the Beast hitting the ¥10 billion milestone on Thursday, its 42nd day in release.

Disney's latest live-action iteration will become the 31st film to reach the uber-blockbuster milestone of ¥10 billion, and likely the tenth fastest of those to reach the important mark.

Fastest to ¥10 billion (90 Days or Less)
25 - Spirited Away (2001)
28 - Your Name. (2016)
28 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
30 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
31 - Ponyo (2008)
33 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
35 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
37 - Frozen (2014)
37 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
42 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *Projection*
43 - Princess Mononoke (1997)
44 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azakaban (2004)
45 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
47 - Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace (1999)
50 - Avatar (2009)
52 - Finding Nemo (2003)
52 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
52 - The Last Samurai (2003)
53 - The Wind Rises (2013)
53 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
53 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
57 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
78 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday seems to be stronger than usual for some films. 

Edited by KP1025

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Olive said:

BATB up to 9.68B yen 

 

Hi Olive. Do you have the weekend actuals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Hi Olive. Do you have the weekend actuals?

350.93M yen

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Weekend Forecast 06/03-04)
01 (01) ¥287,000,000 ($2.6 million), -18%, ¥10,325,000,000 ($91.5 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK7
02 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), Logan (Fox) NEW
03 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), Flower and Sword (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥92,000,000 ($830,000), -34%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), To Each His Own (Toho) WK2
05 (04) ¥83,000,000 ($750,000), -29%, ¥6,525,000,000 ($58.4 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK8
06 (03) ¥79,000,000 ($715,000), -40%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), What a Wonderful Family! 2 (Shochiku) WK2
07 (05) ¥67,000,000 ($605,000), -36%, ¥3,875,000,000 ($34.8 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK6
08 (07) ¥61,000,000 ($550,000), -33%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) WK3
09 (06) ¥56,000,000 ($505,000), -41%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.0 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK4
10 (08) ¥54,000,000 ($490,000), -35%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), Your Eyes (Nikkatsu) WK3


We now enter June, regularly one of the three weakest months of the year, and the first weekend of the month is certainly going to be quite underwhelming.

>Beauty and the Beast will retain its position atop the box office for a seventh-consecutive weekend. After Sunday, Japan will become the #1 overseas market for the film, surpassing the U.K. 

Disney's latest live-action iteration became the 31st film to ever exceed ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster milestone earlier this week (no official announcement yet), and now begins its journey of challenging Disney's other uber-blockbusters: Toy Story 3 (¥10.80 billion), Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (¥10.90 billion), Finding Nemo (¥11.00 billion), Star Wars: The Force Awakens (¥11.63 billion), and finally, Alice in Wonderland (¥11.80 billion) -- which it'll need to beat to become the company's highest-grossing live-action film in the market.

>Logan had a pretty disappointing start on Friday, and its weekend business isn't looking much better. It's unlikely to reach even ¥200 million over the weekend frame itself, which will make reaching the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone rather difficult. However... the X-Men franchise hasn't been performing well as of late (despite the growth seen by most other superhero series'), and it might come in above some of its recent predecessors, so... there's that silver-lining.

>Flower and Sword will have the typically poor/mediocre debut for this time of year, although, if it does indeed come in above ¥100 million ($1 million+), Toei has to be somewhat satisfied considering their very poor track record with live-action films. The 16th-century period film based on the novel "Hana Ikusa" by Tadashi Onitsuka is directed by Tetsuo Shinoharad.

>Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter and The Fate of the Furious have both already set new records in their respective franchises, and will continue to add to their very impressive totals thus far.
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sad for Logan....deserved much more. Luckily it has played great everywhere else

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Corpse of WOKJ:

 

Weekend Estimates 06/03-04)
01 (01) ¥305,000,000 ($2.7 million), -13%, ¥10,350,000,000 ($91.7 million), Beauty and the Beast (Disney) WK7
02 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), Logan (Fox) NEW
03 (02) ¥116,000,000 ($1.1 million), -17%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), To Each His Own (Toho) WK2
04 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Flower and Sword (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥79,000,000 ($715,000), -40%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), What a Wonderful Family! 2 (Shochiku) WK2
06 (04) ¥78,000,000 ($705,000), -33%, ¥6,525,000,000 ($58.4 million), Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho) WK8
07 (07) ¥62,000,000 ($560,000), -32%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Peach Girl (Shochiku) WK3
08 (05) ¥56,000,000 ($505,000), -47%, ¥3,850,000,000 ($34.6 million), The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa) WK6
09 (06) ¥52,000,000 ($470,000), -45%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.0 million), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney) WK4
10 (09) ¥51,000,000 ($460,000), -33%, ¥1,700,000,000 ($15.1 million), Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho) WK6


>Beauty and the Beast retains its position atop the box office for a seventh-consecutive weekend, and Japanese audiences have made Japan its #1 overseas market over the weekend, surpassing its total in the UK.

Disney's latest live-action iteration became the 31st film to ever exceed ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster milestone earlier this week, and begins its journey of challenging Alice in Wonderland (¥11.80 billion) to become Disney's highest-grossing live-action film in the market. 

Based on estimates, it's tracking just 3.3% behind Alice after seven weeks now, following a very similar, but higher (by 1.9%), seventh weekend gross.

>Logan had a pretty disappointing debut in the market, but it at the very least looks to have come in a little higher than the last film in the general X-Men franchise, X-Men: Apocalypse. Its opening is on par with both The Wolverine and X-Men: Origins, and we'll have to wait for actuals to see if it comes in above/below them. It's probably not going to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone.

>Flower and Sword comes in with the typically poor/mediocre debut for this time of year, although, if its stays above ¥100 million ($1 million+), Toei has to be somewhat satisfied considering their very poor track record with live-action films. The 16th-century period film based on the novel "Hana Ikusa" by Tadashi Onitsuka is directed by Tetsuo Shinoharad.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great hold for BatB.  Hoping it goes up with actual.  If it challenges AiW then that's an additional 13.5M.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.