JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Stewart]

Weekend Estimates courtesy of Corpse:

 

Weekend Estimates (01/13-14)
01 (01) ¥213,000,000 ($1.9 million), -38%, ¥6,550,000,000 ($57.9 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK5
02 (02) ¥198,000,000 ($1.8 million), -40%, ¥975,000,000 ($8.8 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK2
03 (04) ¥121,000,000 ($1.1 million), -19%, ¥2,225,000,000 ($19.8 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK5
04 (03) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), -31%, ¥2,685,000,000 ($23.9 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK6
05 (05) ¥67,000,000 ($600,000), -45%, ¥1,850,000,000 ($16.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK5
06 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($540,000), 0, ¥60,000,000 ($540,000), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) NEW
07 (06) ¥41,000,000 ($370,000), -41%, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! -Take on Me (Shochiku) WK2
08 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($360,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($360,000), Renegades (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (07) ¥39,000,000 ($350,000), -35%, ¥1,525,000,000 ($13.7 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK6
10 (09) ¥36,000,000 ($325,000), -18%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.1 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK4

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi achieves a fifth-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and while that's impressive, it continues to drop harder than expected. It has fallen pretty far behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens after five weeks in release, after debuting nearly as high (down just 4%) and achieving a comparable second weekend to it as well. 

Perhaps poor WOM is having an impact, like it has seemingly in every other market, because it's probably going to finish below ¥8 billion ($70 million) unless it manages to stabilize almost immediately. It's looking at ¥7.5 billion ($67/68 million) right now, which is good, but that's going to be down a harsh 35% versus Episode VII after debuting within 5% of it... It's also assured to come in below all three prequel films, too, and will have to settle as only the fifth highest-grossing film in the Star Wars franchise. 

>Kingsman: The Golden Circle retains its position in second place, and has already outgrossed Kingsman: The Secret Service after just two weeks in release. The Kingsman second outing is aiming for a total around ¥1.75 billion ($15/16 million), up 80-90% versus its predecessor -- very impressive.

>The 8-Year Engagement enjoys one of the best holds this weekend, and probably locked itself up for a total of ¥2.5 billion (~$23 million). It's currently at a multiplier of ~8.5 and will easily exceed a 9, and could even approach/hit a 10. It's not unusual for a film to reach a 10 multiplier if released in mid-December, but it's typically reserved for just one film of the season, and this year may have two.

>Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura holds pretty well, especially considering it was up 20% last weekend. It's very likely to reach the ¥3 billion (~$27 million) milestone now, and should exceed a multiplier of 10 in the process. This is a nice result for dir. Takashi Yamazaki, and for Toho, and continues to solidify himself as one of Japan's most-successful modern directors, both critically and financially. 

>Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King is down a lot, unsurprisingly post-holidays, and is only going to crawl over the ¥2 billion (~$18 million) milestone. It's going to experience nearly a 40% decline from its predecessor, and unlike the previous sequels in the franchise, it's not going to improve upon the last films' legs either... definitely a worrying sign for the Yo-Kai Watch movie franchise.

Last Weekend's Actuals, along with this Weekend's Actuals will be posted tomorrow as well.

[Stewart]

From Corpse: Estimates pretty much accurate.

 

Weekend Actuals (01/13-14)
01 (01) ¥206,595,200 ($1.9 million), -40%, ¥6,538,391,400 ($57.8 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK5
02 (02) ¥193,122,300 ($1.7 million), -42%, ¥999,568,800 ($9.0 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK2
03 (04) ¥117,872,700 ($1.1 million), -21%, ¥2,220,544,300 ($19.8 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK5
04 (03) ¥113,302,500 ($1.0 million), -32%, ¥2,695,815,600 ($24.0 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK6
05 (---) ¥87,121,700 ($784,000), 0, ¥87,121,700 ($784,000), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) NEW
06 (05) ¥67,513,600 ($607,000), -45%, ¥1,863,413,300 ($16.5 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK5
07 (06) ¥41,551,500 ($374,000), -40%, ¥150,388,600 ($1.4 million), Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! -Take on Me (Shochiku) WK2
08 (---) ¥39,503,200 ($355,000), 0, ¥50,503,500 ($454,000), Renegades (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (07) ¥37,414,700 ($336,000), -36%, ¥1,520,081,400 ($13.7 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK6
10 (09) ¥34,683,500 ($312,000), -19%, ¥573,475,400 ($5.1 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK4

[KP1025]

So looking like about a 6.2x multiplier for TLJ, which is very average blockbuster legs by Japan standards.

[Chad Stevens]

3 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 looking like about a 6.2x multiplier for TLJ, which is very average blockbuster legs by Japan standards.

Of course your going to try and make it sound bad. Reality is that it about to hit 60 million and should close at 62-65 million. TFA did 105 million 

 

Very, very good........ think what you want

 

Rogue One did 

$39,164,663

Edited January 16, 2018 by Chad Stevens

[KP1025]

10 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Of course your going to try and make it sound bad. Reality is that it about to hit 60 million and should close at 62-65 million. TFA did 105 million 

 

Very, very good........ think what you want

 

Rogue One did 

$39,164,663

Rogue One opened far lower than TLJ in Japan, so it's not the same thing at all. It's not my take on it either. This is straight from Corpse's analysis.

 

Quote

Star Wars: The Last Jedi achieves a fifth-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and while that's impressive, it continues to drop harder than expected. It has fallen pretty far behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens after five weeks in release, after debuting nearly as high (down just 4%) and achieving a comparable second weekend to it as well. 

Perhaps poor WOM is having an impact, like it has seemingly in every other market, because it's probably going to finish below ¥8 billion ($70 million) unless it manages to stabilize almost immediately. It's looking at ¥7.5 billion ($67/68 million) right now, which is good, but that's going to be down a harsh 35% versus Episode VII after debuting within 5% of it... It's also assured to come in below all three prequel films, too, and will have to settle as only the fifth highest-grossing film in the Star Wars franchise. 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by KP1025

[Chad Stevens]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Rogue One opened far lower than TLJ in Japan, so it's not the same thing at all. It's not my take on it either. This is straight from Corpse's analysis.

 

 

This whole comparing TFA to TLJ crap has to stop. There was no Star Wars film for 12 years, people were excited. 

 

Thanks about Avatar 2 - The film will have the same effect at the box-office as TFA. Its going to hit 2 billion easy.

 

Come back when Avatar 3 is released and we'll compare its drop from Avatar 2 together.

 

Apples and Oranges friend

Edited January 16, 2018 by Chad Stevens

[KP1025]

1 minute ago, Chad Stevens said:

This whole comparing TFA to TLJ crap has to stop. There was no Star Wars film for 12 years, people were excited. 

 

Thanks about Avatar 2 - The film will have the same effect at the box-office as TFA. Its going to hit 2 billion easy.

 

Come back when Avatar 3 is released and we'll compare its drop from Avatar 2 together.

 

Apples and Oranges friend

 

You're taking it too personally. This is a box office forum and comparing numbers objectively is what we do. Note nobody in this thread said anything about TLJ having a bad performance (you interjected that yourself). Corpse has been doing these type of analyses for many years, so it's hardly some kind of unique vendetta against TLJ you seem to believe here.

[Chad Stevens]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

You're taking it too personally. This is a box office forum and comparing numbers objectively is what we do. Note nobody in this thread said anything about TLJ having a bad performance (you interjected that yourself). Corpse has been doing these type of analyses for many years, so it's hardly some kind of unique vendetta against TLJ you seem to believe here.

just stating that their focus is up against TFA

[Chad Stevens]

4DX only in Japan

Light and Dark Versions

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/heat-vision/4dx-screenings-last-jedi-japan-offer-special-light-dark-force-versions-film-1074916

 

 

I wish we would catch up here with the theatrical experience. We only get minimum 4D at theme parks......

 

Imagine this stuff..

 

 

[Stewart]

Courtesy of Corpse:

 

Weekend Forecast (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥147,000,000 ($1.3 million), -29%, ¥6,850,000,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
03 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
04 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥124,000,000 ($1.1 million), -36%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.2 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
06 (03) ¥93,000,000 ($840,000), -21%, ¥2,425,000,000 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥87,000,000 ($780,000), -23%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥48,000,000 ($430,000), -45%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($420,000), -30%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (08) ¥22,000,000 ($200,000), -42%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.1 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) WK7

>Geostorm seems set to debut atop the box-office unless it experiences a poor Sunday. The box-office is cooling down now that we're in mid-January, so it doesn't take too much to achieve a #1 opening, but I have to say I never would have predicted a film like this one could have done it given disaster films are generally poorly received at the box-office in Japan these days (and Star Wars should have been big enough to remain there for another week or two, but alas). Japan is likely to be one of the top 5 international markets for the film, as well.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi will probably be dethroned in its sixth weekend of release, but should post a solid hold, although it's a bit too late to generate much revenue at this point of its release. A great start; a disappointing finish.

>Paddington 2 and The Lies She Loved will be vying for the Top 3, and it's really a coin-toss based on pre-sales and current ticket sales. I'm expecting the former to enjoy a nice boost on Sunday thanks to its family appeal, so I'm giving it the edge. 

>The 8-Year Engagement and Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura are poised for another weekend of good/great holds, perhaps due slightly in part to their Japan Academy Prize nominations this past week. Both films are going to exceed multipliers of 10, and in my opinion, achieved the most-successful performances from December.

The tenth spot is wide open for a number of films. The position should only require no more than ¥25 million, so we could see a surprise entry in the Top 10 this weekend.

[Stewart]

Corpse: (Props to Geostorm!)

 

Weekend Estimates (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -34%, ¥6,850,000,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
03 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
05 (02) ¥114,000,000 ($1.0 million), -41%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.2 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
06 (03) ¥86,000,000 ($775,000), -27%, ¥2,425,000,000 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥76,000,000 ($685,000), -33%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥45,000,000 ($405,000), -48%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥41,000,000 ($370,000), -39%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (10) ¥21,000,000 ($190,000), -39%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.5 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK5

>Geostorm easily take the #1 spot, and has achieved quite the respectable debut based on estimates. Disaster films have become a genre of the past, and while this debut certainly pales in comparison to those from the late 1990's and 2000's, I believe this is the biggest opening for a disaster film since... 2012 (the film), so in 9 years? I'll do some research when actuals are released to confirm this.

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi falls to second place in its sixth-weekend, experiencing yet another mediocre decline... I don't think it'll have enough in it to even reach ¥7.5 billion, probably stalling around ¥7.3 billion ($64/65 million). 

A finish over ¥7 billion is strong for almost any film, but this is a rare case where I'd rule it disappointing considering it'll be down 35%+ versus Episode VII, and even down 20% versus the lowest-grossing film in the Prequel Trilogy, Episode III. Clearly, WOM had a big impact here, so much so that a lot of franchise fans apparently decided to skip this entry.

>The Lies She Loved appears to have earned a Top 3 debut, though we'll have to wait for actuals considering how close it is. So-so debut here, pretty standard for a film like this during this time of year. 

>Paddington 2 basically matches the debut of the original based on estimates, and actuals will tell whether it ends up opening above or under it. Either way, solid debut, and nice to see it largely retaining its audience from the first film.

[John Marston]

Lol Last Jedi will barely finish  above Pirates 

[Stewart]

Weekend Actuals courtesy of Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (01/20-21)
01 (---) ¥242,170,600 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥304,060,300 ($2.7 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥159,107,500 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥159,107,500 ($1.4 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) NEW
03 (01) ¥141,052,300 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥6,846,927,000 ($60.6 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK6
04 (02) ¥119,769,000 ($1.1 million), -38%, ¥1,278,897,700 ($11.5 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK3
05 (---) ¥117,000,500 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥137,022,900 ($1.2 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) NEW
06 (03) ¥87,691,300 ($791,000), -26%, ¥2,419,453,400 ($21.6 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK6
07 (04) ¥78,671,500 ($710,000), -31%, ¥2,869,898,200 ($25.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK7
08 (05) ¥47,459,500 ($428,000), -46%, ¥192,612,900 ($1.7 million), Mazinger Z - Infinity: The Movie (Toei) WK2
09 (06) ¥44,327,500 ($400,000), -35%, ¥1,919,718,200 ($17.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK6
10 (07) ¥22,590,400 ($204,000), -46%, ¥193,264,100 ($1.7 million), Chuunibyou demo Koi ga Shitai! -Take on Me (Shochiku) WK3
11 (10) ¥21,661,900 ($196,000), -38%, ¥617,785,300 ($5.5 million), That Is Not a Child But a Minor (Toho) WK5

>Geostorm easily takes the #1 spot, selling a solid 170,593 admissions over the weekend frame across 584 screens (and 217,353 admissions since Friday). Overall, this is a respectable debut, one that should result in a total above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, making Japan its second biggest international market behind China. 

Disaster films have largely become a movie genre of the past, and while this debut does pale in comparison to disaster films from the late 1990's and 2000's, this just so happens to be the biggest opening weekend for one since 2009's 2012. Very impressive.

>The Lies She Loved not just managed a Top 3 debut, but even came in second place over the weekend; it sold a fair 116,803 admissions across 285 screens. This opening is nothing to get excited about, and is pretty much on par with smaller, off-season, live-action films in the market, but it's decent enough for this time of year. 

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi falls to third place already in its sixth-weekend, delivering a so-so decline when it really needed a stronger hold by this point of its release. Episode VIII in the franchise is going to exceed ¥7 billion without any problems, and while that's strong for the majority of films, I'd consider it a rare disappointment this time considering how low it is compared to its predecessors. 

For example, it's going to end up 37/38% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and also down about 20% compared to the lowest-grossing film in the prequel trilogy, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith, despite achieving a debut pretty much on par with all its predecessors. It took a couple weeks into its release, but clearly negative WOM is at play here given the relative consistency of the franchise in the past.

>Kingsman: The Golden Circle is holding decently, and looks to nearly double the gross of Kingsman: The Secret Service. 

>Paddington 2 unfortunately slips a bit and had to settle for a fifth place debut. The highly-acclaimed sequel sold 93,103 admissions over the weekend on 382 screens (and 109,761 admissions since Friday). This opening is 7% below that of the original, one of Kino Film's highest-grossing films ever, which seems good to me, and legs just might be better this time around since the original surprisingly didn't have much staying power. We'll see.

[James]

So TLJ under Fantastic Beasts is possible? Awesome!

[Stewart]

Corpse forecast:

 

Weekend Forecast (01/27-28)
01 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥146,000,000 ($1.3 million), -40%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.5 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (03) ¥93,000,000 ($850,000), -34%, ¥7,050,000,000 ($62.2 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK7
04 (02) ¥92,000,000 ($840,000), -42%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), -31%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK2
06 (04) ¥76,000,000 ($690,000), -36%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($12.8 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK4
07 (---) ¥65,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($590,000), The Dark Tower (Sony) NEW
08 (06) ¥61,000,000 ($555,000), -30%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($22.7 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($480,000), -33%, ¥2,975,000,000 ($26.5 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK8
10 (---) ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), 0, ¥50,000,000 ($455,000), Cinema Fighters (LDH Pictures) NEW
11 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Karma Chapter (Shochiku Media Division) NEW
12 (---) ¥35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), Detroit (Long Ride) NEW

[Cynosure]

Per Corpse :

 

2017 Yearly Results:

Yearly Revenue: ¥228.572 billion ($2.06 billion), -3.0% , 2nd Biggest Year Ever (behind 2016)
Yearly Admissions: 174,483,000, -3.2%, 2nd Most-Attended Year Since 2000 (behind 2016)

Japanese Film Share - 54.9%: ¥125.483 billion ($1.13 billion), -15.5%, 2nd Biggest Year Ever (behind 2016)
Imported Film Share - 45.1%: ¥103.089 billion ($930 million), +18.6%, Biggest Year Since 2007

# Of Japanese Films Released: 594, -2.6%, 3rd Most Japanese Films Ever Released (behind 2014 and 2016)
# Of Imported Films Released: 593, +10.0%, Most Imported Films Ever Released (beating 2014)
# Of Overall Films Released: 1,187, +0.3%, Most Films Ever Released (beating 2014)
# Of Films Reaching ¥1 Billion ($10 million): 62, no change, Ties Record (with 2005 and 2016)

Number of Theater Screens: 3,525, +0.2%, Most Screens Since 1969!
Average Ticket Price: ¥1,310 ($11.80), +0.01%, New Record! (beating 2016)

*2017 marks the tenth-consecutive year that Japanese Films earned more than Imported Films.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

2017 - Top Grossing Films (FINAL)

¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) / 8.95 million - Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
¥7.34 billion ($64.8 million) / 5.24 million - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.)
¥7.31 billion ($66.1 million) / 6.22 million - Despicable Me 3 (Toho-Towa)
¥6.89 billion ($61.6 million) / 5.35 million - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho)
¥6.71 billion ($60.2 million) / 4.55 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney)
¥5.16 billion ($46.1 million) / 4.25 million - Moana (Disney)
¥5.11 billion ($45.4 million) / 4.17 million - Sing (Toho-Towa)
¥4.63 billion ($39.9 million) / 3.08 million - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥4.43 billion ($39.6 million) / 3.89 million - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥4.42 billion ($39.0 million) / 3.23 million - La La Land (Gaga)
¥4.27 billion ($37.9 million) / 2.88 million - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥4.05 billion ($36.2 million) / 2.80 million - The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa)
¥3.84 billion ($35.4 million) / 2.90 million - Gintama (Warner Bros.)
¥3.55 billion ($32.3 million) / 3.03 million - Pokemon: I Choose You! (Toho)
¥3.52 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.77 million - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (Toho)
¥3.29 billion ($29.7 million) / 2.65 million - Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho)
¥3.26 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.94 million - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale (Toho)
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) / 1.89 million - Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony)
¥2.67 billion ($23.9 million) / 2.15 million - In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
¥2.52 billion ($22.4 million) / 1.77 million - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥2.51 billion ($22.2 million) / 1.99 million - Shinobi's Country (Toho)
¥2.41 billion ($21.5 million) / 1.81 million - Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.)
¥2.40 billion ($21.5 million) / 1.94 million - Sekigahara (Toho)
¥2.37 billion ($20.4 million) / 1.91 million - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥2.33 billion ($20.3 million) / 1.77 million - Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho)
¥2.20 billion ($19.6 million) / 1.66 million - IT (Warner Bros.)
¥2.00 billion ($17.7 million) / 1.34 million - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
¥1.93 billion ($17.1 million) / 1.52 million - Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho)
¥1.92 billion ($17.1 million) / 1.57 million - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.22 million - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥1.85 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.49 million - Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho)
¥1.80 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.44 million - Cars 3 (Disney)
¥1.75 billion ($15.8 million) / 1.17 million - Transformers: The Last Knight (Toho-Towa)
¥1.64 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.17 million - Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
¥1.62 billion ($14.3 million) / 1.37 million - Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.2 million) / 1.23 million - Fireworks, Should We It From the Side or the Bottom? (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.1 million) / 1.17 million - Outrage Coda (Warner Bros.)
¥1.53 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.05 million - The Mummy (Toho-Towa)
¥1.49 billion ($13.2 million) / 1.18 million - Mix (Toho)
¥1.48 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.17 million - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥1.46 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.17 million - The Third Murderer (Toho)
¥1.45 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.00 million - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel, Ch. I - Presage Flower (Aniplex)
¥1.44 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.05 million - Ajin: Demi-Human (Toho)
¥1.43 billion ($12.6 million) / 1.08 million - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.18 million - Daytime Shooting Star (Toho)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) / 0.99 million - Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.2 million) / 1.04 million - High & Low 2: End of Sky (Shochiku)
¥1.31 billion ($11.7 million) / 0.97 million - High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku)
¥1.30 billion ($11.4 million) / 1.11 million - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥1.28 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.97 million - Narratage (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥1.21 billion ($10.6 million) / 0.87 million - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥1.20 billion ($10.5 million) / 0.83 million - Blade Runner 2049 (Sony)
¥1.15 billion ($10.2 million) / 0.82 million - Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.78 million - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)
¥1.14 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.90 million - The Last Recipe (Toho)
¥1.13 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.92 million - Memory (Toho)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.84 million - Tokyo Ghoul (Shochiku)
¥1.10 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.75 million - Justice League (Warner Bros.)
¥1.09 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.88 million - Miracles of the Namiya General Store (Kadokawa/Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.73 million - Kuroko's Basketball The Movie: Last Game (Shochiku)
¥1.01 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.88 million - Honnouji Hotel (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.81 million - P & JK (Shochiku)
¥1.00 billion ($9.0 million) / 0.81 million - The Disastrous Life of Saiki K (Sony/Asmik Ace)

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

2017 Multipliers (Wide Releases; ¥1 Billion+ Earners) [FINAL]

15+ (Phenomenal)
x13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas
x12.21 - Despicable Me 3
x11.92 - IT
x11.64 - Beauty and the Beast
x10.63 - La La Land
10+ (Exceptional)
x9.76 - Today, I Will Date With Tomorrow's You
x9.46 - Sing
x9.01 - Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High
x8.89 - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
x8.77 - Moana
x8.29 - The Last Recipe
x8.27 - A Man Called Pirate
8+ (Great)
x7.91 - Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon
x7.68 - Mary and the Witch's Flower
x7.65 - Daytime Shooting Star
x7.50 - Confessions of a Murderer
x7.10 - Gintama
x7.09 - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
7+ (Good)
x6.89 - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
x6.88 - Pokemon: I Choose You!
x6.70 - Let's Go, Jets!
x6.51 (-5.1%) - 2017 Average Multiplier
x6.40 - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic
x6.40 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
x6.39 - The Fate of the Furious
x6.36 - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day
x6.34 - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song
x6.33 - Mix
x6.26 - The Third Murderer
x6.24 - Spider-Man: Homecoming
x6.06 - Sekigahara
6+ (Average)
x5.93 - Narratage
x5.92 - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale
x5.83 - P & JK
x5.63 - Cars 3
x5.58 - Kuroko's Basketball The Movie: Last Game
x5.40 - Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or Bottom?
x5.38 - Justice League
x5.36 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale
x5.35 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter
x5.33 - Transformers: The Last Knight
x5.30 - Ajin: Demi-Human
x5.29 - Blade Runner 2049
x5.22 - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children
x5.20 - Miracles of the Namiya General Store
x5.18 - Shinobi's Country
x5.12 - The Disastrous Life of Saiki K
x5.06 - Dunkirk
x5.05 - Kong: Skull Island
x5.03 - Wonder Woman
5+ (Mediocre)
x4.99 - Thor: Ragnarok
x4.98 - Memory
x4.92 - The Mummy
x4.92 - Honnouji Hotel
x4.91 - Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!!! Shiriri
x4.78 - Partners: The Movie IV
x4.75 - Tokyo Ghoul
x4.74 - Doctor Strange
x4.57 - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
x4.51 - Outrage Coda
x4.31 - High & Low 3: Final Mission
4+ (Poor)
x3.81 - High & Low 2: End of Sky
x3.51 - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel Ch.1 - Presage Flower
3+ (Awful)

 

All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 Billion Earners; Wide Releases) [1998-]

01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.92 - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
05. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
06. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
07. 19.96 - Les Miserables (Dec., 2012)
08. 17.07 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
09. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
10. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
11. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
12. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
13. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
14. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
15. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
16. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
17. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
18. 13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (July, 2017)
19. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
20. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
21. 13.64 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
22. 13.20 - Shin Godzilla (July, 2016)
23. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
24. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
25. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
26. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
27. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
28. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
29. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
30. 12.21 - Despicable Me 3 (July, 2017)
31. 12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012)

[Stewart]

Some thoughts on COCO from Corpse. Seems a provisional estimate of around $35-45m

 

feasby007 wrote:

Where on this list do you think COCO could make an appearance?

Above Cars 2, below Finding Dory. 

~¥4 billion is the standard gross for well-received Pixar originals, so a gross around that figure is likely. 
 

R136a1 wrote:

Is there a reason Incredibles 2 is opening in August rather than mid-July like most Pixar releases?

I don't think there's any particular reason, really, beyond it being an excellent spot for two reasons: 

1.) The August 1st date is an excellent one, and right now, it has the beginning of August largely to itself since not much has been scheduled for Obon Festival (mid-August) yet.

2.) Mid/Late-July is already getting very crowded anyway: Pokemon 21, Jurassic World 2, Mirai of the Future, Bleach, Code Blue: The Movie, and Rainbow Days all are already scheduled for the last three weekends of July. And the Summer Release Schedule isn't complete yet, either, with some other notable films still awaiting release dates such as Gintama 2 and Mission: Impossible 6.

There's still over 20 films announced for Summer on the schedule that haven't received dates yet.

[Stewart]

On 27/01/2018 at 10:21 AM, feasby007 said:

Corpse forecast:

 

Weekend Forecast (01/27-28)
01 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥146,000,000 ($1.3 million), -40%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.5 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (03) ¥93,000,000 ($850,000), -34%, ¥7,050,000,000 ($62.2 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK7
04 (02) ¥92,000,000 ($840,000), -42%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), -31%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK2
06 (04) ¥76,000,000 ($690,000), -36%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($12.8 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK4
07 (---) ¥65,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($590,000), The Dark Tower (Sony) NEW
08 (06) ¥61,000,000 ($555,000), -30%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($22.7 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($480,000), -33%, ¥2,975,000,000 ($26.5 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK8
10 (---) ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), 0, ¥50,000,000 ($455,000), Cinema Fighters (LDH Pictures) NEW
11 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Karma Chapter (Shochiku Media Division) NEW
12 (---) ¥35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), Detroit (Long Ride) NEW

Update:

 

Weekend Estimates (01/27-28)
01 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), The Crimes That Bind (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥159,000,000 ($1.4 million), -34%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.6 million), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) WK2
03 (03) ¥104,000,000 ($950,000), -26%, ¥7,060,000,000 ($62.3 million), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney) WK7
04 (02) ¥96,000,000 ($875,000), -39%, ¥410,000,000 ($3.7 million), The Lies She Loved (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥90,000,000 ($820,000), -23%, ¥310,000,000 ($2.8 million), Paddington 2 (Kino Films) WK2
06 (04) ¥73,000,000 ($665,000), -39%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($12.8 million), Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) WK4
07 (06) ¥57,000,000 ($520,000), -34%, ¥2,550,000,000 ($22.7 million), The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku) WK7
08 (07) ¥50,000,000 ($455,000), -36%, ¥2,970,000,000 ($26.5 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) WK8
09 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), The Dark Tower (Sony) NEW
10 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($365,000), Space Battleship Yamato 2202: Karma Chapter (Shochiku Media Division) NEW
11 (09) ¥26,000,000 ($235,000), -41%, ¥1,960,000,000 ($17.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho) WK7
12 (---) ¥25,000,000 ($225,000), 0, ¥35,000,000 ($320,000), Detroit (Long Ride) NEW

>The Crimes That Bind, based on the murder case novels by author Keigo Higashino, and the latest starring popular actor Hiroshi Abe, debuts atop the box office to satisfactory results. The estimated opening is on par with the last film featuring the two, 2012's The Wings of the Kirin.

>Geostorm held pretty well in its second weekend, and has guaranteed that it'll exceed the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone now. It'll be the first disaster film to reach the mark since 2009's 2012, remarkably. 

>Star Wars: The Last Jedi finally manages a good hold, but it's also fallen too far to take real advantage of it. ¥7.5 billion is still probably out of reach, but if it can hold onto enough screens come late-March, it might be able to crawl to the mark. I have it finishing with ¥7.3/7.4 billion ($65 million), and while respectable, it's certainly disappointing after its debut, and in regard to the totals of its predecessors. 

>Paddington 2 held well in its sophomore weekend, though not as well as the original. The first film experienced excellent holds early on, but its later holds were average/poor, so maybe the sequel can catch up then.

>The Dark Tower is a bust for Sony; even with the respectable theater/screen count given to the film, it was only just able to make the Top 10.