JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Stewart]

So Moana had about 46k admissions on its opening Friday in the usual ⅔ of the market. Coco is up to 53k at 8:30pm and still going surprising strong this evening. 

 

I'd say Coco is easily going to have a better Friday than Moana, maybe ¥150m+ and this could point to a bigger weekend, although Coco doing well in the evenings could point to it not skewing so young like Moana did, so that means it may not increase quite as much on the weekend.

 

However, things are looking good for Coco to out-open Moana at the moment.

[averagejoe]

32 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Jumanji 2 opens on Coco's 4th we. Will see how that affects to Coco's legs. 

Jumanji 2 wont be the biggest threat imo. I think Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer will be the most dangerous one.

[KP1025]

Corpse is predicting $20 million max for Jumanji, so it probably won't be a threat. It's also a completely different genre, so it won't have much effect on Coco even it if breaks out. The newest Conan film will definitely be the most direct competition. 

[Olive]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

So Moana had about 46k admissions on its opening Friday in the usual ⅔ of the market. Coco is up to 53k at 8:30pm and still going surprising strong this evening. 

 

I'd say Coco is easily going to have a better Friday than Moana, maybe ¥150m+ and this could point to a bigger weekend, although Coco doing well in the evenings could point to it not skewing so young like Moana did, so that means it may not increase quite as much on the weekend.

 

However, things are looking good for Coco to out-open Moana at the moment.

That site added more chains than a year ago, Coco OD about 90% of Moana

WoM is slightly better though.

[Cynosure]

The new Conan movie will definitely take all the biggest screens when it opens as it's likely going to have the biggest OW of the year up to now, but unless Coco pulls a Frozen I don't think it will put a damper on its gross significantly at that point in its run, especially since Japan is a market where several big movies can open and/or run at the same time.

[Cynosure]

Pre-sales for Saturday at the tracked chains :

 

1) Coco : 31411

2) Precure : 25411

3) Doraemon : 23887 (-44.4%)

 

https://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-22368.html

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)2018 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Forecast (03/17-18)
01 (---) ¥485,000,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥590,000,000 ($5.6 million), Coco (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥478,000,000 ($4.5 million), -32%, ¥2,325,000,000 ($21.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) NEW
05 (02) ¥191,000,000 ($1.8 million), -28%, ¥3,200,000,000 ($30.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK5
06 (03) ¥132,000,000 ($1.2 million), -39%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.6 million), Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei) WK2
07 (04) ¥116,000,000 ($1.1 million), -41%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($11.5 million), Black Panther (Disney) WK3
08 (05) ¥104,000,000 ($980,000), -37%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.2 million), Last Winter, We Parted (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (06) ¥71,000,000 ($670,000), -36%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.5 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) WK4
10 (07) ¥59,000,000 ($560,000), -44%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) WK3

>Coco finally arrives in Japan just ahead of Spring Break and aims to dethrone Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island atop the box-office, but can it? Pre-sales are about 20% below those of Moana's this week last year, and if Coco follows a similar trajectory over the weekend, it'll be targeting a debut between ¥450-500 million -- that's also the range that Doraemon will probably fall in its third weekend, so we should have a close race for the #1 position.

>Chihayafuru: Conclusion, the third and final film in the series, will have to settle for third. Surprisingly, its pre-sales are a lot softer than I was expecting, so hopefully it manages to gain momentum over the weekend.

>Pretty Cure Super Stars is the latest film in long-running Pretty Cure series, this time a crossover release, and they tend to have pretty consistent debuts; however, this one has noticeably stronger pre-sales than a few of the last films, so I'm predicting a higher debut above the norm -- just not too much higher in case its fanbase is skewing the numbers at the moment.

Overall, we should be in store of a strong weekend ahead of Spring Break which begins next week.

[Stewart]

Corpse:

 

Quick update following Saturday:

Coco followed Moana's daily pattern very closely and finished roughly 21% behind it for the day. Its weekend forecast should be very accurate, and it now has the slight edge to win the weekend after taking Saturday.

Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island looks to fall a little harder than the forecast, which probably isn't too surprising after its excellent second weekend hold. I'm predicting it'll drop to second place still, but since it'll probably win Sunday, it could make the battle for #1 this weekend a toss-up once again.

Chihayafuru: Conclusion and Pretty Cure Super Stars! are in a close race to make the Top 3, and it'll come down to how each performs on Sunday to determine which film comes in third. Their weekend results shouldn't differ too much from the forecast.

The Greatest Showman will deliver another good hold, the best in the Top 10, while the remaining holdovers are looking at above average drops.

[Cynosure]

Depending on how Doraemon does this sunday, which it looks set to win, we might have a split weekend with Doraemon winning in admissions but Coco winning in gross.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)2018 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Estimates (03/17-18)
01 (---) ¥470,000,000 ($4.4 million), 0, ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million), Coco (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥451,000,000 ($4.3 million), -36%, ¥2,300,000,000 ($21.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($1.9 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) NEW
05 (02) ¥203,000,000 ($1.9 million), -23%, ¥3,200,000,000 ($30.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK5
06 (03) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -37%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.6 million), Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei) WK2
07 (04) ¥108,000,000 ($1.0 million), -45%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($11.5 million), Black Panther (Disney) WK3
08 (05) ¥86,000,000 ($810,000), -48%, ¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), Last Winter, We Parted (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (06) ¥60,000,000 ($565,000), -47%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.5 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) WK4
10 (07) ¥58,000,000 ($550,000), -45%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.9 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) WK3

Coco appears to have debuted atop the box-office, dethroning Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island, but they're close enough in admissions that we'll probably have to wait until tomorrow's actuals to be sure (only 1,999 admissions separate them from ~75% of the entire market). I'm actually predicting that Coco wins in terms of gross, while Doraemon stays number one in admissions. Either way, it's a good opening that pretty much on par with the standard original Pixar release. Legs are likely to be great, so a total around ¥4 billion ($40 million) is likely, making Japan its third strongest international market behind China and Mexico, and will get it very close to the $800 million worldwide milestone.

Chihayafuru: Conclusion will likely come in third place, but like our close battle for the #1 position, Pretty Cure Super Stars! could potentially snag third place once actuals are released. Regarding Chihayafuru, the third and final part of the trilogy, its debut is a little lower than expected, but it also bested the openings of the previous two films based on estimates, so Toho's probably satisfied.

[KP1025]

I know Corpse tends to be conservative with predictions, but I hope Coco can reach a better multiplier than that. It's hard to imagine it not having excellent WOM based on the quality of the film and specific themes/properties that resonate with Japanese audiences. 

[salvador-232]

I don't know what is the correct site to look for that, but in Eiga and Yahoo Japan at least, Coco reviews are fairly high. In line with Toy Story 3, slightly better than Zootopia and higher than Moana. 

[Olive]

COCO made 610M yen in 3 days, weekend slightly better than DORAEMON (488M VS. 460M)

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)2018 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (03/17-18)
01 (---) ¥488,160,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥610,035,000 ($5.8 million), Coco (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥459,586,200 ($4.3 million), -35%, ¥2,344,025,400 ($22.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥256,555,100 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥256,555,100 ($2.3 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥226,236,600 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥226,236,600 ($1.9 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) NEW
05 (02) ¥204,501,300 ($1.9 million), -23%, ¥3,246,150,900 ($30.6 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK5
06 (03) ¥118,358,700 ($1.1 million), -45%, ¥595,787,300 ($5.6 million), Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei) WK2
07 (04) ¥105,253,900 ($994,000), -46%, ¥1,214,907,300 ($11.4 million), Black Panther (Disney) WK3
08 (05) ¥89,416,200 ($844,000), -46%, ¥441,497,900 ($4.1 million), Last Winter, We Parted (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (06) ¥61,050,100 ($576,000), -47%, ¥1,356,478,400 ($12.5 million), Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa) WK4
10 (07) ¥59,703,400 ($564,000), -44%, ¥650,010,000 ($5.9 million), The Shape of Water (Fox) WK3
11 (09) ¥38,271,000 ($361,000), -55%, ¥201,009,100 ($1.8 million), Kids on the Slope (Toho) WK2
12 (10) ¥37,911,200 ($358,000), -47%, ¥530,471,200 ($5.0 million), The 15:17 to Paris (Warner Bros.) WK3

>Coco finally reaches Japan, and debuts atop the box-office with a good start that will likely lead to a very long run. Pixar's latest acclaimed release sold 368,214 admissions over the weekend frame across 511 screens, and 463,383 admissions since opening on Friday.

Its debut is 3% below Ratatouille; 9% higher than Wall-E; and 20% higher than Inside Out. All three of those films finished right at the ¥4 billion ($35-40 million) milestone, so that should be the current target for Coco, but I won't be surprised it finishes closer to ¥5 billion ($45 million+) given its better reviews and audience scores.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island drops to second place in its third weekend of release, however, it actually ranked #1 in admissions with 388,000 admissions. The thirty-eighth film in the long-running series is tracking well above every other film in the franchise, and is well on track to reaching the ¥5 billion ($50 million) milestone to become the first in the franchise to achieve blockbuster status.

>Chihayafuru: Conclusion, the third and final part in the series, debuts in third place, selling 209,962 admissions over the weekend on 307 screens. The send-off appeared to have more interest before release, but it still achieve the best opening in the series, opening a solid 19% above its predecessor. Teens/young adults make up an overwhelming percentage of its audience (86%), so look for it to benefit greatly during the upcoming Spring Break. I don't believe it'll be leggy enough to reach the ¥2 billion milestone, but it should finish comfortably above ¥1.5 billion ($15 million).

>Pretty Cure Super Stars! settles for fourth place, selling 202,750 admissions over the weekend across 214 screens. This is one of the best debuts in the series in years, and is up a significant 48% versus last Spring's release. The franchise has been struggling to achieve any ¥1 billion ($10 million) earners for awhile now, but this one should be able to reach that milestone.

>The Greatest Showman continues to post great weekend holds, but its weekday business is what's most impressive and is easily outpacing its weekend earnings. As I've mentioned several times, the film is keeping pace with last year's La La Land despite no award recognition, and may very well match or beat it as it's now aiming for a ¥4.5 billion ($40 million+) total. Japan will end up as its second strongest intl. market only behind the United Kingdom.

>Black Panther experiences another steep drop, and ultimately wasn't able to capitalize on the film's phenomenal performance/reception in the U.S. and elsewhere to outdo the standard Marvel/DC results. It'll finish just above the ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) mark.

[Saurabh]

@Olive is there any Site to track Daily collns of Japan just like there is Maoyan and ENT(though they update not live) for China?

[KP1025]

8 minutes ago, Saurabh said:

@Olive is there any Site to track Daily collns of Japan just like there is Maoyan and ENT(though they update not live) for China?

https://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

 

It is not 100% complete data, but I believe it represents about 3/4 of the theaters in Japan.

[a2k]

I hope Coco does at least 9x multi for $41+ total.

[KP1025]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I hope Coco does at least 9x multi for $41+ total.

I'm personally hoping it can make the Top 30 best multipliers (Hollywood animated films are in bold). 

Quote

01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) 
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.92 - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
05. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
06. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008) 
07. 19.96 - Les Miserables (Dec., 2012) 
08. 17.07 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016) 
09. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
10. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013) 
11. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
12. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
13. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
14. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
15. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
16. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
17. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
18. 13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (July, 2017)
19. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
20. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
21. 13.64 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
22. 13.20 - Shin Godzilla (July, 2016) 
23. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
24. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
25. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 
26. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 
27. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
28. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
29. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
30. 12.21 - Despicable Me 3 (July.,2017)

1

 

[Piku-Banerjee]

Is there any chance that Coco breaks out like Zootopia in Japan? Or will competition hamper it?

[Quigley]

1. When do the school holidays start? Is this week the first week.

 

2. I really hope Coco increases next weekend

 

3. Can someone let us know how the weekdays are going?

Edited March 20, 2018 by Quigley