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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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3 hours ago, Sliver Legion said:

Ahh, I see. Rather annoying that BOM market specific numbers and total international figure are totally desynced like that, but I guess I can see how it would be a bother for them to keep everything updated and in correspondence.

Not only that, but even when all the numbers are up to date, country-specific number do not add up to the overseas total, because BOM receives the gross in local currency for each country and converts it to dollars based on the last weekend's exchange rate, which is totally stupid, since most of a film's gross has not been made on the most recent weekend but over a number of weekends. A very good example was DM2 which had a total of about $45M in Brazil and within 2 weeks, this total dropped (!) to $35M because of fluctuations in exchange rate. The take-home message is to completely ignore country-specific totals.Country-specific weekend figures are usually accurate but not always (in Greece, I can say for sure that BOM often gets it wrong).

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(C)2018 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (03/31-04/01)
01 (01) ¥379,464,200 ($3.6 million), +01%, ¥2,688,170,700 ($25.1 million), Coco (Disney) WK3
02 (02) ¥352,868,200 ($3.3 million), -01%, ¥1,813,069,000 ($17.2 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK2
03 (03) ¥311,681,300 ($2.9 million), -03%, ¥4,238,236,000 ($39.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK5
04 (04) ¥137,043,300 ($1.3 million), -19%, ¥1,193,917,000 ($11.2 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) WK3
05 (05) ¥133,374,800 ($1.2 million), -18%, ¥4,085,961,000 ($38.4 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK7
06 (---) ¥128,014,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥170,827,900 ($1.6 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) NEW
07 (---) ¥75,000,000 ($705,000), 0, ¥100,666,100 ($946,000), Red Sparrow (Fox) NEW
08 (06) ¥64,691,600 ($608,000), -32%, ¥646,218,000 ($6.2 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) WK3
09 (---) ¥64,065,900 ($602,000), 0, ¥64,065,900 ($602,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) NEW
10 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($565,000), 0, ¥82,055,900 ($771,000), The Commuter (Gaga) NEW


>Coco tops the box-office over the weekend for a third-consecutive week, and managed the only increase over the lucrative discount weekend. As a result of the discount weekend, the film sold 328,000 admissions to earn an impressive 16% increase in its third weekend. Overall, Pixar's latest is doing very well, and is outpacing many of the studio's other releases like Up, Wall-E, Inside Out, and Ratatouille, as it aims for a total around ¥4.5-5.0 billion ($40-45 million).

>The Boss Baby remained in second place, barely dropping in its second weekend. In terms of admissions, the soon-to-be highest-grossing DreamWorks Animation release sold 318,000 admissions in its sophomore frame, up 11% over its opening weekend. After just 12 days in release, the film is already the sixth highest-grossing DreamWorks Animation release and will surpass Shrek 2 to claim the #1 spot in the next week or two. Expect a total a bit above ¥3 billion ($30 million).

>Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island holds strong in in third place in its fifth weekend of release, selling 289,000 admissions to increase 6% over last weekend. The thirty-eighth entry in the series achieved the biggest fifth weekend in the series (after claiming the record for all previous weekends), and is now just a few hundred million away from becoming the highest-grossing film in long-running franchise and should finish around ¥5.5 billion ($50 million+).

>The Greatest Showman, as usual, holds well once again and is now outpacing last year's La La Land. It's going to surpass The Phantom of the Opera in the coming days to become the fourth highest-grossing live-action musical in the market, and will surpass La La Land to become the third in a couple weeks. It'll end up exceeding ¥4.5 billion ($42/43 million) before its excellent performance comes to a close.

>The Post wasn't able to debut in the Top 5, having to settle for sixth place, selling a mediocre 109,840 admissions across 281 screens. This one should have been a fairly safe ¥1 billion ($10 million) earner, but it's highly unlikely to reach that milestone with this debut.

>Red Sparrow hasn't had its weekend figure released yet, but its 3-day total was and it's almost identical to estimates (with 82,737 admissions on 337 screens), so the weekend frame estimate above should be very close. I normally wouldn't come back later to update it since it's below ¥100 million, but if anyone reading is interested in this one, just let me know.
 
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10 minutes ago, Quigley said:

What should we expect for Coco's next weekend? An increase? Will it stay flat again?

Spring break ends thursday or so. Big drops (30%+) for all films, although Doraemon and Boss Baby will drop harder (35-40%) as they skew much younger. 

 

For Coco, 30% is expected, anything better is excellent!

 

Edit: For reference, Moana and Sing both dropped 33.8% in the similar weekend. Although for them it was weekend 5 and 4 resp. Whereas it'll be 4th weekend for Coco.

Edited by feasby007
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from corpse:

 

Spring Break 2018 - Daily Estimates, Final Days (04/02-06)

Monday (04/02)
¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), -03%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($18.6 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 13
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -15%, ¥2,800,000,000 ($26.2 million), Coco (Disney) Day 18
¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), -24%, ¥4,350,000,000 ($40.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 31
¥45,000,000 ($425,000), -21%, ¥1,240,000,000 ($11.7 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 17
¥25,000,000 ($235,000), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 4
¥25,000,000 ($235,000), -38%, ¥4,110,000,000 ($38.6 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 46
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 4
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), -31%, ¥660,000,000 ($6.3 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 17
¥13,000,000 ($120,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($725,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 3
¥10,000,000 ($95,000), 0, ¥92,000,000 ($865,000), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 3


Tuesday (04/03)
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -07%, ¥2,065,000,000 ($19.7 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 14
¥100,000,000 ($940,000), -08%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($27.1 million), Coco (Disney) Day 19
¥90,000,000 ($850,000), -27%, ¥4,440,000,000 ($41.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 32
¥35,000,000 ($330,000), -21%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($12.0 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 18
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), -36%, ¥4,130,000,000 ($38.8 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 47
¥12,000,000 ($115,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 5
¥12,000,000 ($115,000), -30%, ¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 18
¥11,000,000 ($105,000), 0, ¥88,000,000 ($830,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 4
¥10,000,000 ($95,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($950,000), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 3


% changes versus same day last week.

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Spring Break 2018 - Daily Estimates, Final Days (04/02-06)

Monday (04/02)
¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), -03%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($18.6 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 13
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -15%, ¥2,800,000,000 ($26.2 million), Coco (Disney) Day 18
¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), -24%, ¥4,350,000,000 ($40.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 31
¥45,000,000 ($425,000), -21%, ¥1,240,000,000 ($11.7 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 17
¥25,000,000 ($235,000), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 4
¥25,000,000 ($235,000), -38%, ¥4,110,000,000 ($38.6 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 46
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 4
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), -31%, ¥660,000,000 ($6.3 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 17
¥13,000,000 ($120,000), 0, ¥77,000,000 ($725,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 3
¥10,000,000 ($95,000), 0, ¥92,000,000 ($865,000), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 4


Tuesday (04/03)
¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -07%, ¥2,065,000,000 ($19.7 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 14
¥100,000,000 ($940,000), -08%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($27.1 million), Coco (Disney) Day 19
¥90,000,000 ($850,000), -27%, ¥4,440,000,000 ($41.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 32
¥35,000,000 ($330,000), -21%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($12.0 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 18
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), -36%, ¥4,130,000,000 ($38.8 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 47
¥12,000,000 ($115,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 5
¥12,000,000 ($115,000), -30%, ¥670,000,000 ($6.4 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 18
¥11,000,000 ($105,000), 0, ¥88,000,000 ($830,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 4
¥10,000,000 ($95,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($950,000), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 5


Wednesday (04/04)
¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), -10%, ¥3,045,000,000 ($28.5 million), Coco (Disney) Day 20
¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), -11%, ¥2,205,000,000 ($21.0 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 15
¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), -28%, ¥4,560,000,000 ($42.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 33
¥45,000,000 ($425,000), -27%, ¥1,320,000,000 ($12.4 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 19
¥40,000,000 ($375,000), -32%, ¥4,170,000,000 ($39.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 48
¥30,000,000 ($280,000), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), -32%, ¥685,000,000 ($6.5 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 6
¥12,000,000 ($115,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($945,000), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 5
¥10,000,000 ($95,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 6


% changes versus same day last week.

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On 03/04/2018 at 12:56 PM, feasby007 said:

Spring break ends thursday or so. Big drops (30%+) for all films, although Doraemon and Boss Baby will drop harder (35-40%) as they skew much younger. 

 

For Coco, 30% is expected, anything better is excellent!

 

Edit: For reference, Moana and Sing both dropped 33.8% in the similar weekend. Although for them it was weekend 5 and 4 resp. Whereas it'll be 4th weekend for Coco.

Yep, but next weekend might be even more important with fierce competition as both the annual Crayon Shin-chan movie and the annual Detective Conan movie are being released. Not to mention they're both being released on Friday instead of Saturday, for some reason, which will cut the other animated movies' screens and seats 24h earlier.

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Thursday (04/05)
¥90,000,000 ($840,000), -29%, ¥2,295,000,000 ($21.8 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 16
¥80,000,000 ($750,000), -27%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($29.3 million), Coco (Disney) Day 21
¥65,000,000 ($605,000), -45%, ¥4,625,000,000 ($43.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 34
¥30,000,000 ($280,000), -41%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.7 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 20
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), -39%, ¥4,190,000,000 ($39.4 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 49
¥20,000,000 ($190,000), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 7
¥11,000,000 ($100,000), 0, ¥155,000,000 ($1.4 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 7
¥9,000,000 ($85,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 6
¥9,000,000 ($85,000), -42%, ¥695,000,000 ($6.6 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) Day 20
¥8,000,000 ($75,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), The Commuter (Gaga) Day 7


Friday (04/06)
¥70,000,000 ($650,000), -39%, ¥3,195,000,000 ($29.9 million), Coco (Disney) Day 22
¥70,000,000 ($650,000), -48%, ¥2,365,000,000 ($22.4 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 17
¥65,000,000 ($605,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($605,000), Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony) NEW
¥50,000,000 ($465,000), -59%, ¥4,675,000,000 ($44.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 35
¥40,000,000 ($375,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($375,000), The Bastard and the Beautiful World (Toho) NEW
¥20,000,000 ($185,000), -55%, ¥1,370,000,000 ($12.9 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) Day 21
¥20,000,000 ($185,000), -36%, ¥4,210,000,000 ($39.6 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 50
¥20,000,000 ($185,000), -46%, ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) Day 8
¥9,000,000 ($85,000), -56%, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) Day 8
¥7,000,000 ($65,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), Honey (Toei/Showgate) Day 7


% changes versus same day last week.

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『ジュマンジ/ウェルカム・トゥ・ジャングル』

Weekend Forecast (04/07-08)
01 (01) ¥288,000,000 ($2.7 million), -24%, ¥3,475,000,000 ($32.6 million), Coco (Disney) WK4
02 (02) ¥229,000,000 ($2.1 million), -35%, ¥2,600,000,000 ($24.5 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK3
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million), Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony) NEW
04 (03) ¥187,000,000 ($1.7 million), -40%, ¥4,875,000,000 ($45.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK6
05 (05) ¥105,000,000 ($980,000), -21%, ¥4,300,000,000 ($40.5 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK8
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($930,000), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), The Bastard and the Beautiful World (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥89,000,000 ($830,000), -30%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥85,000,000 ($795,000), -37%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($13.7 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) WK4
09 (07) ¥44,000,000 ($410,000), -41%, ¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) WK2
10 (---) ¥35,000,000 ($325,000), 0, ¥45,000,000 ($420,000), Call Boy (Phantom Film) NEW


A bit of a tricky weekend to predict for a couple reasons. The first: This is the first post-Spring Break weekend, and while the holiday period doesn't effect the weekend business as much as the weekday business, it still provides some change. The second: This is a post-Discount weekend, meaning that admissions last Sunday were greatly inflated, while avg. ticket prices were greatly deflated.

So... Weekend admissions will be noticeably down versus last weekend (especially Sun.-to-Sun.), but the drops in gross won't appear as bad as the decline in admissions may indicate.

Having said this, Disney/Pixar's Coco appears, at the moment, that it'll survive the post-SB quite well based on early ticket sales, and will hopefully hold up better than last year's Moana which experienced rather poor legs after the holiday period. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, should still do decently, but morning ticket sales suggests that Spring Break was supporting it more over the past couple weeks. And Doraemon always begins to drop hard in April given how young it skews.

>Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has the slight advantage on Saturday in terms of advance ticket sales, but generally if an opener isn't comfortably ahead of a holdover in pre-sales, it's not usually able to keep pace with it as the day/weekend progresses. The film will have a significantly higher average ticket price over its animated holdover competition, but I don't see it keeping the admissions close enough to debut at #1 (I wouldn't rule out 2nd place yet though).

>The Bastard and the Beautiful World is a difficult film to predict. It's a limited release, playing on 86 screens, and is a unique omnibus-style film. It performed solid yesterday, and its pre-sales this morning are also solid, but this one could very well be heavily frontloaded.

>And finally, the tenth position this weekend is open to a variety of films. Call Boy carries a R18+ rating, so its average ticket price will be high, therefore I'm giving it the advantage over the other contenders.
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Coco seems to keep the good legs after the holidays, and 4th weekend in a row at #1. Not bad, but I keep saying, i would have loved Coco blowing Japanese box office ala Frozen, Nemo, BatB ... all above $100M).

 

And Jumanji 2 doesn't seem to connect too much. Just an average low-end superhero movie box office. 

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(C)2018 Disney/Pixar. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (04/07-08)
01 (01) ¥298,665,600 ($2.8 million), -22%, ¥3,497,603,200 ($32.8 million), Coco (Disney) WK4
02 (---) ¥271,972,100 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥424,301,400 ($4.0 million), Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony) NEW
03 (02) ¥242,577,200 ($2.2 million), -32%, ¥2,600,816,300 ($24.5 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK3
04 (03) ¥189,599,900 ($1.8 million), -39%, ¥4,878,515,400 ($45.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) WK6
05 (05) ¥115,482,500 ($1.1 million), -14%, ¥4,360,851,900 ($41.0 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) WK8
06 (---) ¥85,000,000 ($795,000), 0, ¥116,179,600 ($1.1 million), The Bastard and the Beautiful World (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥84,871,100 ($794,000), -34%, ¥397,329,300 ($3.7 million), The Post (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥81,558,300 ($762,000), -41%, ¥1,459,497,300 ($13.7 million), Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho) WK4
09 (08) ¥44,848,600 ($419,000), -31%, ¥750,362,700 ($7.0 million), Pretty Cure Super Stars! (Toei) WK4
10 (07) ¥37,407,100 ($350,000), -50%, ¥215,050,000 ($2.0 million), Red Sparrow (Fox) WK2
11 (---) ¥36,976,020 ($345,000), 0, ¥36,976,020 ($345,000), Thomas and Friends: Journey Beyond Sodor (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) NEW
12 (10) ¥33,649,500 ($314,000), -44%, ¥176,402,100 ($1.6 million), The Commuter (Gaga) WK2


>Coco continues to reign over the box-office, claiming its fourth-consecutive weekend at #1. Its hold is quite impressive considering drops can often times be a little harsh the first weekend of April after the Spring Break holiday period. Disney/Pixar's latest sold 223,866 admissions in its fourth weekend, and has exceeded 2.8 million after four weeks in release. The film is tracking well ahead of its studio predecessors, such as Wall-E and Inside Out, that it shared a similar opening weekend with at this point, and is on track to finish between ¥4.5-5 billion.

>Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle debuts in second place, though it did have to settle for this place in terms of admissions, selling 180,315 admissions over the weekend frame across 627 screens -- it has sold 260,053 admissions since opening on Friday and after some limited Spring Break showings last week were included. Overall, while not debuting at #1 might appear disappointing, the opening is solid, especially given how poorly/dreadful Western comedies perform in the market. If it can hold onto enough seats/showtimes over the next few weeks, expect a total around ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).

>The Boss Baby slips to third place, though by selling a further 191,922 admissions in its third weekend, managed to hang onto second place in terms of admissions. The breakout hit has officially outgrossed Shrek 2 now to become DreamWorks Animation's highest-grossing film in Japan. Its post-Spring Break drop is comparable to last year's Sing, so it should have a bit more life in it to definitely exceed the ¥3 billion milestone, and finish around ¥3.2/3.3 billion ($30/31 million) or so.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island falls to fourth place in its sixth weekend of release, selling an additional 157,000 admissions. Not only did the thirty-eighth entry in the long-running franchise become the highest-grossing film in the series last Tuesday, its 32nd day of release, but it also became the most-attended film in the series on Sunday by exceeding 4.2 million admissions. It's going to exceed the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone next weekend, and should finish a little shy of the ¥5.5 billion ($51/52 million) mark -- incredibly impressive results.

>The Greatest Showman remains in the Top 5 in its eighth weekend of release, delivering an excellent hold that's once again better than last year's La La Land. The musical smash surpassed The Phantom of the Opera on Sunday to become the fourth highest-grossing live-action musical in the market, and will outgross the aforementioned La La Land to claim the #3 spot in just a few days. Look for this one to finish around the ¥4.8 billion ($45 million) mark, but it actually could reach the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone if it's able to hold onto enough screens when Golden Week (late-April) rolls around -- it's just very unlikely.

>The Bastard and the Beautiful World missed the Top 5 with a sixth-place debut, but its weekend figure remains an estimate -- sometimes limited release take an extra day or two to have their actual released. However, since opening on Friday, it has sold 87,528 admissions.
 
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