JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Hei25]

So a 3 day total of 1B Yen, doens't seems out of reach ?

[Olive]

13 minutes ago, Hei25 said:

So a 3 day total of 1B Yen, doens't seems out of reach ?

@feasby007

Usual location numbers is 217% stronger than RP1 last Friday.

same multiplier would be 335M yen OD!

[Hei25]

32 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

@feasby007

Usual location numbers is 217% stronger than RP1 last Friday.

same multiplier would be 335M yen OD!

So if we use that 217% over RPO weekend (367M Yen), also a 2 day OW of 1B is in play.

Obviously this should be more frontloaded than RPO, so it's not a safe bet, but based on OD it doesn't sound crazy at all.

Edited April 27, 2018 by Hei25

[Olive]

36 minutes ago, Hei25 said:

So if we use that 217% over RPO weekend (367M Yen), also a 2 day OW of 1B is in play.

Obviously this should be more frontloaded than RPO, so it's not a safe bet, but based on OD it doesn't sound crazy at all.

Oh, they combined the previews into OD, I calculated it twice.

OD is only 176% of RP1, new range 290-300M OD

 

[Cynosure]

It's losing the biggest theaters to Conan in most locations tomorrow so I'm not sure the OW will be as impressive as the OD suggests.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)Marvel Studios 2018

Weekend Forecast (04/28-29)
01 (---) ¥775,000,000 ($7.1 million), 0, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥574,000,000 ($5.2 million), -30%, ¥4,250,000,000 ($39.1 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥242,000,000 ($2.2 million), -34%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (03) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), -22%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) WK3
05 (04) ¥97,000,000 ($890,000), -28%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($41.0 million), Coco (Disney) WK7
06 (---) ¥90,000,000 ($820,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), My Little Monster (Toho) NEW
07 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($915,000), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW
08 (05) ¥77,000,000 ($705,000), -37%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) WK2
09 (07) ¥60,000,000 ($550,000), -28%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($29.2 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK6
10 (06) ¥52,000,000 ($475,000), -48%, ¥750,000,000 ($7.0 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) WK3

Avengers: Infinity War got off to a great start yesterday, and its Saturday pre-sales suggest that it's in store for a great debut weekend as well. Its pre-sales are 93% ahead of Doctor Strange and 60% ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming, the MCU's two biggest openers in the past two years. All the other MCU (and DC) films debuted too low to really compare this against, really, and unfortunately, Avengers: Age of Ultron opened on July 1st (a national discount day) which greatly boosted its ticket sales for the day, so it's not a fair comparison either!

Anyway, the numbers so far suggest an opening weekend around ¥750 million, however, Sunday is the start of Golden Week (Showa Day), so Monday is a holiday (observance), too, as a result, so I could see it reaching ¥800 million over the weekend. It'll be aiming to achieve the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film after the original Spider-Man trilogy.

Note: To anyone who follows the Japan Box-Office closely, largely disregard the Saturday results -- the day itself isn't going to reflect the weekend business whatsoever due to Showa Day landing on Sunday this year. Sunday, as a result, is going to be abnormally boosted, so Saturday will be a little deflated. It's also possible, if Sunday is strong enough, that the holdovers will hold slightly better than forecast.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Marvel/DC - Biggest Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)
¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)
¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)

Avengers: Infinity War is pretty much guaranteed to debut as the 5th biggest opening for a Marvel/DC film, but it'll be aiming to beat its predecessor to claim the 4th spot and become the biggest non-Spider-Man Marvel/DC opener.

[mmacader]

Corpse:

 

Avengers: Infinity War looks to have earned around ¥350 million ($3.2 million) on Saturday, and assuming Sunday does see a nice boost due to the holiday, is still aiming for an opening weekend around ¥750-800 million ($6.9-7.3 million). It needs to beat Avengers: Age of Ultron's ¥793.9 million opening in order to achieve the biggest non-Spider-Man opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film in the market.

[Stewart]

Based on usual locations, Avengers should've won the weekend very easily in gross, and by about 30k adm. as well.

[MinaTakla]

52 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Based on usual locations, Avengers should've won the weekend very easily in gross, and by about 30k adm. as well.

How much did Conan make/drop?

[Cynosure]

Around 27-28%, against 22% last year over the same weekend. But as Corpse mentioned Showa Day being a Sunday makes for a lower Saturday increasing weekend drops. However Monday will be a bank holiday to compensate.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Cynosure

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)Marvel Studios 2018

Weekend Estimates (04/28-29)
01 (---) ¥710,000,000 ($6.5 million), 0, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥598,000,000 ($5.5 million), -27%, ¥4,275,000,000 ($39.3 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥242,000,000 ($2.2 million), -35%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (03) ¥169,000,000 ($1.5 million), -15%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) WK3
05 (04) ¥97,000,000 ($890,000), -28%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($41.0 million), Coco (Disney) WK7
06 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), My Little Monster (Toho) NEW
07 (05) ¥79,000,000 ($720,000), -36%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) WK2
08 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (07) ¥57,000,000 ($520,000), -32%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($29.2 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK6
10 (06) ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), -55%, ¥750,000,000 ($7.0 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) WK3

>Avengers: Infinity War delivers a great opening weekend based on estimates, the second biggest for a non-Spider-Man Marvel/DC film but it will come in below Avengers: Age of Ultron (by about 11%). However, it's worth noting that Infinity War opened on Friday as opposed to Ultron's Saturday start, which given the genre, probably made up most of the difference. This is a great start, though, and given the release being right at the start of Golden Week, legs are sure to be solid, so outgrossing Ultron is pretty likely. Expect a total around ¥3.5 billion ($35 million) or a little more.

>Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer held very well in its third weekend, and while it slipped to second place in revenue, it might still reign atop the box-office in admissions. I'm only getting a 5,000 or so difference between it and Infinity War (both being around 450,000). The twenty-second film in the long-running franchise is still doing record numbers for the franchise, and is well on track for a total around ¥7.5 billion ($70 million).

I'm a bit busy this afternoon, so I'll include analysis for a few other films in the Top 10 when Actuals are released. And speaking of which, Actuals will likely be delayed a day or two due to Golden Week, so expect them on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Also, with the start of Golden Week, get ready for some massive weekdays.

Edited April 29, 2018 by Cynosure

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Marvel/DC - Biggest Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥710.0 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018) *Estimate*
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)
¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)
¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)
¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)

[Stewart]

A strong start to Golden Week this year:

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

Monday (04/30) - Showa Day Observance
¥365,000,000 ($3.3 million), +233%, ¥4,640,000,000 ($42.7 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 18
¥315,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥1,340,000,000 ($12.2 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 4
¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), +94%, ¥1,155,000,000 ($10.6 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), +493%, ¥975,000,000 ($9.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 18
¥65,000,000 ($595,000), +252%, ¥4,440,000,000 ($41.6 million), Coco (Disney) Day 46
¥55,000,000 ($505,000), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 4
¥45,000,000 ($410,000), +251%, ¥3,170,000,000 ($29.6 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 41
¥45,000,000 ($410,000), +108%, ¥370,000,000 ($3.4 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 10
¥35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW
¥25,000,000 ($230,000), +617%, ¥5,140,000,000 ($48.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 59 

% changers versus same day last week.

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)

[Sam]

Wow, look at that calendar, it is really a Golden Week.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

 

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥1,540,000,000 ($14.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 5
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +131%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.9 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 19
¥100,000,000 ($915,000), +83%, ¥1,255,000,000 ($11.5 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +154%, ¥4,470,000,000 ($41.9 million), Coco (Disney) Day 47
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +74%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 11
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +116%, ¥4,825,000,000 ($45.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 74
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +249%, ¥995,000,000 ($9.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), +40%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.2 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) Day 5

% changes versus same day last week.

Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)

 

[John Rambo]

33 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Corpse :

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

 

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥1,540,000,000 ($14.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 5
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +131%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.9 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 19
¥100,000,000 ($915,000), +83%, ¥1,255,000,000 ($11.5 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +154%, ¥4,470,000,000 ($41.9 million), Coco (Disney) Day 47
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +74%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 11
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +116%, ¥4,825,000,000 ($45.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 74
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +249%, ¥995,000,000 ($9.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), +40%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.2 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) Day 5

% changes versus same day last week.

Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)

 

How is AIW performing? 

[Ledmonkey96]

7 hours ago, John Rambo said:

How is AIW performing? 

For comparison, BP made 14.5, A1 made 45mil, Ultron made 26mil, CW made 24

[Cynosure]

AIW debuts at #2 in Japan (in admissions).

 

http://eiga.com/ranking/

 

Over the 2 day period :

 

AIW : 437k admissions, 672 million yen

Conan : 453k admissions, 610 million yen

 

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by Cynosure

[John Rambo]

8 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

For comparison, BP made 14.5, A1 made 45mil, Ultron made 26mil, CW made 24

Can it top TA in yen? $ looks impossible right considering 2012 ER was soo good that for every 100m yen gross in USD was 1.2m+ whereas now its less than a million for every 100m yen! 

 

BP is done and dusted, ultron and CW easy task, TA looks doubtful?