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So a 3 day total of 1B Yen, doens't seems out of reach ?

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13 minutes ago, Hei25 said:

So a 3 day total of 1B Yen, doens't seems out of reach ?

@feasby007

Usual location numbers is 217% stronger than RP1 last Friday.

same multiplier would be 335M yen OD!

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32 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

@feasby007

Usual location numbers is 217% stronger than RP1 last Friday.

same multiplier would be 335M yen OD!

So if we use that 217% over RPO weekend (367M Yen), also a 2 day OW of 1B is in play.

Obviously this should be more frontloaded than RPO, so it's not a safe bet, but based on OD it doesn't sound crazy at all.

Edited by Hei25

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36 minutes ago, Hei25 said:

So if we use that 217% over RPO weekend (367M Yen), also a 2 day OW of 1B is in play.

Obviously this should be more frontloaded than RPO, so it's not a safe bet, but based on OD it doesn't sound crazy at all.

Oh, they combined the previews into OD, I calculated it twice.

OD is only 176% of RP1, new range 290-300M OD

 

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It's losing the biggest theaters to Conan in most locations tomorrow so I'm not sure the OW will be as impressive as the OD suggests.

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Corpse :

 

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(C)Marvel Studios 2018

Weekend Forecast (04/28-29)
01 (---) ¥775,000,000 ($7.1 million), 0, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥574,000,000 ($5.2 million), -30%, ¥4,250,000,000 ($39.1 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥242,000,000 ($2.2 million), -34%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (03) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), -22%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) WK3
05 (04) ¥97,000,000 ($890,000), -28%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($41.0 million), Coco (Disney) WK7
06 (---) ¥90,000,000 ($820,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), My Little Monster (Toho) NEW
07 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($915,000), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW

08 (05) ¥77,000,000 ($705,000), -37%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) WK2
09 (07) ¥60,000,000 ($550,000), -28%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($29.2 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK6
10 (06) ¥52,000,000 ($475,000), -48%, ¥750,000,000 ($7.0 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) WK3


Avengers: Infinity War got off to a great start yesterday, and its Saturday pre-sales suggest that it's in store for a great debut weekend as well. Its pre-sales are 93% ahead of Doctor Strange and 60% ahead of Spider-Man: Homecoming, the MCU's two biggest openers in the past two years. All the other MCU (and DC) films debuted too low to really compare this against, really, and unfortunately, Avengers: Age of Ultron opened on July 1st (a national discount day) which greatly boosted its ticket sales for the day, so it's not a fair comparison either!

Anyway, the numbers so far suggest an opening weekend around ¥750 million, however, Sunday is the start of Golden Week (Showa Day), so Monday is a holiday (observance), too, as a result, so I could see it reaching ¥800 million over the weekend. It'll be aiming to achieve the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film after the original Spider-Man trilogy.

Note: To anyone who follows the Japan Box-Office closely, largely disregard the Saturday results -- the day itself isn't going to reflect the weekend business whatsoever due to Showa Day landing on Sunday this year. Sunday, as a result, is going to be abnormally boosted, so Saturday will be a little deflated. It's also possible, if Sunday is strong enough, that the holdovers will hold slightly better than forecast.
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Corpse :

 

Marvel/DC - Biggest Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)

¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)

¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)

¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)

¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)

¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)

¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)


Avengers: Infinity War is pretty much guaranteed to debut as the 5th biggest opening for a Marvel/DC film, but it'll be aiming to beat its predecessor to claim the 4th spot and become the biggest non-Spider-Man Marvel/DC opener.

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Corpse:

 

Avengers: Infinity War looks to have earned around ¥350 million ($3.2 million) on Saturday, and assuming Sunday does see a nice boost due to the holiday, is still aiming for an opening weekend around ¥750-800 million ($6.9-7.3 million). It needs to beat Avengers: Age of Ultron's ¥793.9 million opening in order to achieve the biggest non-Spider-Man opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film in the market.

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Based on usual locations, Avengers should've won the weekend very easily in gross, and by about 30k adm. as well.

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52 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Based on usual locations, Avengers should've won the weekend very easily in gross, and by about 30k adm. as well.

How much did Conan make/drop?

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Around 27-28%, against 22% last year over the same weekend. But as Corpse mentioned Showa Day being a Sunday makes for a lower Saturday increasing weekend drops. However Monday will be a bank holiday to compensate.

Edited by Cynosure
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Corpse :

 

Image
(C)Marvel Studios 2018

Weekend Estimates (04/28-29)
01 (---) ¥710,000,000 ($6.5 million), 0, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥598,000,000 ($5.5 million), -27%, ¥4,275,000,000 ($39.3 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥242,000,000 ($2.2 million), -35%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.4 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (03) ¥169,000,000 ($1.5 million), -15%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) WK3
05 (04) ¥97,000,000 ($890,000), -28%, ¥4,375,000,000 ($41.0 million), Coco (Disney) WK7
06 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), My Little Monster (Toho) NEW
07 (05) ¥79,000,000 ($720,000), -36%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) WK2
08 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥80,000,000 ($730,000), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (07) ¥57,000,000 ($520,000), -32%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($29.2 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) WK6
10 (06) ¥45,000,000 ($410,000), -55%, ¥750,000,000 ($7.0 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) WK3


>Avengers: Infinity War delivers a great opening weekend based on estimates, the second biggest for a non-Spider-Man Marvel/DC film but it will come in below Avengers: Age of Ultron (by about 11%). However, it's worth noting that Infinity War opened on Friday as opposed to Ultron's Saturday start, which given the genre, probably made up most of the difference. This is a great start, though, and given the release being right at the start of Golden Week, legs are sure to be solid, so outgrossing Ultron is pretty likely. Expect a total around ¥3.5 billion ($35 million) or a little more.

>Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer held very well in its third weekend, and while it slipped to second place in revenue, it might still reign atop the box-office in admissions. I'm only getting a 5,000 or so difference between it and Infinity War (both being around 450,000). The twenty-second film in the long-running franchise is still doing record numbers for the franchise, and is well on track for a total around ¥7.5 billion ($70 million).

I'm a bit busy this afternoon, so I'll include analysis for a few other films in the Top 10 when Actuals are released. And speaking of which, Actuals will likely be delayed a day or two due to Golden Week, so expect them on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Also, with the start of Golden Week, get ready for some massive weekdays. :thumbsup:
Edited by Cynosure
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Corpse :

 

Marvel/DC - Biggest Opening Weekends:
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥710.0 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Infinity War (2018) *Estimate*
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) - Captain America: Civil War (2016)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)

¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) - Doctor Strange (2017)
¥390.1 million ($3.8 million) - Suicide Squad (2016)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (2016)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥309.7 million ($2.9 million) - Black Panther (2018)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)

¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) - Wonder Woman (2017)

¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) - Thor: Ragnarok (2017)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)

¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) - Justice League (2017)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) - Logan (2017)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (2016)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)

¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)

¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)
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A strong start to Golden Week this year:

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

Monday (04/30) - Showa Day Observance
¥365,000,000 ($3.3 million), +233%, ¥4,640,000,000 ($42.7 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 18
¥315,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥1,340,000,000 ($12.2 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 4
¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), +94%, ¥1,155,000,000 ($10.6 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), +493%, ¥975,000,000 ($9.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 18
¥65,000,000 ($595,000), +252%, ¥4,440,000,000 ($41.6 million), Coco (Disney) Day 46
¥55,000,000 ($505,000), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 4
¥45,000,000 ($410,000), +251%, ¥3,170,000,000 ($29.6 million), The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa) Day 41
¥45,000,000 ($410,000), +108%, ¥370,000,000 ($3.4 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 10
¥35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) NEW
¥25,000,000 ($230,000), +617%, ¥5,140,000,000 ($48.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho) Day 59 


% changers versus same day last week.

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)

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Wow, look at that calendar, it is really a Golden Week.

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Corpse :

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

 

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥1,540,000,000 ($14.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 5
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +131%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.9 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 19
¥100,000,000 ($915,000), +83%, ¥1,255,000,000 ($11.5 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +154%, ¥4,470,000,000 ($41.9 million), Coco (Disney) Day 47
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +74%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 11
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +116%, ¥4,825,000,000 ($45.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 74
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +249%, ¥995,000,000 ($9.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), +40%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.2 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) Day 5


% changes versus same day last week.

Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)
 
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33 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Corpse :

 

Golden Week 2018 (Daily Estimates)

 

Tuesday (05/01) - National Discount Day
¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥1,540,000,000 ($14.0 million), Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) Day 5
¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), +131%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.9 million), Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho) Day 19
¥100,000,000 ($915,000), +83%, ¥1,255,000,000 ($11.5 million), Ready Player One (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +154%, ¥4,470,000,000 ($41.9 million), Coco (Disney) Day 47
¥30,000,000 ($275,000), +74%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Inuyashiki (Toho) Day 11
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), My Little Monster (Toho) Day 5
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +116%, ¥4,825,000,000 ($45.2 million), The Greatest Showman (Fox) Day 74
¥20,000,000 ($180,000), +249%, ¥995,000,000 ($9.2 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), +40%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.2 million), Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa) Day 19
¥15,000,000 ($140,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.) Day 5


% changes versus same day last week.

Wednesday (05/02) - Ladies' Day
Thursday (05/03) - Constitution Day
Friday (05/04) - Greenery Day
Saturday (05/05) - Children's Day
Sunday (05/06)
 

How is AIW performing? 

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7 hours ago, John Rambo said:

How is AIW performing? 

For comparison, BP made 14.5, A1 made 45mil, Ultron made 26mil, CW made 24

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AIW debuts at #2 in Japan (in admissions).

 

http://eiga.com/ranking/

 

Over the 2 day period :

 

AIW : 437k admissions, 672 million yen

Conan : 453k admissions, 610 million yen

 

 

Edited by Cynosure

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8 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

For comparison, BP made 14.5, A1 made 45mil, Ultron made 26mil, CW made 24

Can it top TA in yen? $ looks impossible right considering 2012 ER was soo good that for every 100m yen gross in USD was 1.2m+ whereas now its less than a million for every 100m yen! 

 

BP is done and dusted, ultron and CW easy task, TA looks doubtful?

 

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