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Courtesy of Corpse. Bohemian Rhapsody Officially top of 2018 in Japan! And that 19% weekend increase thanks to Holiday on Monday!

 

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(C)TYPE-MOON・ufotable・FSNPC

Weekend "Actuals*" (01/12-13/14)
01 (---) ¥490,506,195 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥602,841,741 ($5.6 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥397,850,000 ($3.7 million), +19%, ¥9,437,390,000 ($84.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK10
03 (02) ¥232,000,000 ($2.2 million), -21%, ¥3,258,312,800 ($29.9 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK4
04 (03) ¥112,000,000* ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥3,638,122,200 ($32.8 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK5
05 (---) ¥x90,000,000* ($830,000), 0, ¥156,358,100 ($1.4 million), Creed II (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (05) ¥x86,000,000* ($795,000), -30%, ¥835,000,000 ($7.7 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK3
07 (04) ¥x85,000,000* ($785,000), -33%, ¥6,388,740,400 ($57.1 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK8
08 (07) ¥x84,000,000* ($775,000), -15%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK2
09 (08) ¥x76,000,000* ($700,000), -21%, ¥1,225,035,900 ($11.1 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000* ($610,000), -34%, ¥1,391,039,800 ($12.3 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK4


Alright, so Monday's national holiday has delayed some of the numbers again this week. Only the Top 3 films have had their weekend actual released, and weekend grosses for films ranked 4th-10th remain estimates (marked with an asterisk *). All the cumulative totals are actuals as of Monday, except for Love! Live Sunshine! Over the Rainbow which hasn't had any numbers released yet. Estimates will be replaced with Actuals when available.

>Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly debuts atop the box office in a big way, nearly reaching ¥500 million over the weekend frame. The second film in the series sold 276,795 admissions over the weekend on only 131 screens, achieving an incredible average ticket price of ¥1,772 ($16.34). After Monday, it has sold 363,080 admissions. The sequel came in 18.8% higher than its predecessor, and it should finish above the ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) mark and has a shot at reaching ¥2 billion ($20 million) as well.

>Bohemian Rhapsody holds... well, increases, in its tenth weekend of release, selling a further 272,344 admissions over the weekend frame. It achieved the third biggest tenth weekend gross ever recorded, and its ten week multiplier has now reached 26.63, the fifth highest multiplier ever recorded. It has sold 6,836,433 admissions after 67 days in release. There's still no sign of it showing any signs of slowing down, at least noticeably, so the sky continues to be the limit. At the very least, it'll probably exceed ¥12 billion (~$110 million), but don't be surprised if it goes higher.

>Ralph Breaks the Internet is still performing pretty well, and outgrossed the original over the weekend. It has sold 2,641,967 admissions after 25 days in release. Expect it to finish right around the ¥4 billion ($36/37 million).

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly also keeps doing very well at the box office, and it's now just over ¥100 million away from outgrossing Resurrection F to become the highest grossing film in the franchise. It has sold 2,823,219 admissions after 32 days in release. I expect a bit of a free fall from this point forward, and still expect it to fall barely shy of ¥4 billion, around ¥3.9 billion ($35/36 million), but it's doable if Toei keeps it going.

>Creed II's weekend gross remains an estimate, but its four-day cumulative total is posted above. Overall, a bit of a disappointing debut, but it's much higher then the first film due to a wider release, and if it can reach ¥500 million ($4.5 million), I'd consider it a modest success.

And finally, very importantly: the editor of the MovieWalker film website is saying that Bohemian Rhapsody is going to remain a 2018 release, while Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was released close enough to the end of the Japan Box Office fiscal year that it'll be counted as a 2019 release. Sooooo... Congratulations to Bohemian Rhapsody on becoming 2018's Highest Grossing Film!
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Also courtesy of Corpse, the 2018 update:

 

2018 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.44 billion ($84.3 million) / 6.84 million [67] - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
¥9.23 billion ($83.1 million) / 7.18 million [E] - Code Blue (Toho)
¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) / 6.88 million [F] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho)
¥8.06 billion ($72.2 million) / 5.53 million [E] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa)
¥7.50 billion ($66.2 million) / 5.05 million [F] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5.37 billion ($50.0 million) / 4.68 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho)
¥5.21 billion ($48.4 million) / 3.73 million [F] - The Greatest Showman (Fox)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.93 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.93 million [E] - Coco (Disney)
¥4.83 billion ($43.7 million) / 4.02 million [E] - Incredibles 2 (Disney)
¥4.68 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.39 million [E] - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa)
¥4.53 billion ($40.9 million) / 3.67 million [F] - Shoplifters (Gaga)
¥3.73 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.50 million [F] - Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)
¥3.66 billion ($32.8 million) / 2.83 million [F] - Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.)
¥3.43 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.93 million [F] - The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa)
¥3.21 billion ($28.6 million) / 2.54 million [F] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥3.06 billion ($27.5 million) / 2.19 million [E] - One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace)
¥3.00 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.64 million [E] - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.90 billion ($26.1 million) / 2.30 million [E] - Killing for the Prosecutors (Toho)
¥2.82 billion ($25.7 million) / 2.24 million [E] - Mirai of the Future (Toho)
¥2.80 billion ($25.0 million) / 2.23 million [F] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥2.50 billion ($22.8 million) / 1.53 million [E] - Ready Player One (Warner Bros.)
¥2.41 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.81 million [E] - Christopher Robin (Disney)
¥2.15 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.49 million [E] - Venom (Sony)
¥2.09 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.50 million [E] - Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.2 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.88 billion ($16.7 million) / 1.43 million [E] - Stolen Identity (Toho)
¥1.83 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.55 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho)
¥1.78 billion ($16.2 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Deadpool 2 (Fox)
¥1.73 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.47 million [F] - Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho)
¥1.70 billion ($15.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa)
¥1.70 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.22 million [F] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥1.70 billion ($15.2 million) / 1.36 million [E] - Recall (Shochiku)
¥1.64 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.)
¥1.62 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.28 million [F] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.60 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.29 million [E] - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.27 million [F] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥1.55 billion ($14.4 million) / 1.03 million [F] - Black Panther (Disney)
¥1.48 billion ($13.0 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Meg (Warner Bros.)
¥1.45 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.14 million [E] - Café Funiculi Funicula (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million) / 1.06 million [F] - Laplace's Witch (Toho)
¥1.28 billion ($11.4 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Ant-Man and the Wasp (Disney)
¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.23 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - 50 First Kisses (Sony)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony)
¥1.20 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei)
¥1.18 billion ($10.7 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Sensei Kunshu (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥1.12 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.96 million [E] - Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Star Memories (Toei)
¥1.11 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Peter Rabbit (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.88 million [E] - Every Day, A Good Day (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
¥1.01 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.79 million [E] - Tonight, at the Movies (Warner Bros.)
¥1.00 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (Toei)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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(C)2019 映画「マスカレード・ホテル」製作委員会 (C)東野圭吾/集英社

Weekend Forecast (01/19-20)
01 (---) ¥575,000,000 ($5.3 million), 0, ¥725,000,000 ($6.6 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million), -27%, ¥9,975,000,000 ($89.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK11
03 (01) ¥196,000,000 ($1.8 million), -60%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.2 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK2
04 (03) ¥174,000,000 ($1.6 million), -25%, ¥3,510,000,000 ($32.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK5
05 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) NEW
06 (04) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), -39%, ¥3,755,000,000 ($33.9 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK6
07 (07) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -25%, ¥590,000,000 ($5.4 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK3
08 (---) ¥60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥75,000,000 ($685,000), Taxi 5 (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($505,000), -39%, ¥950,000,000 ($8.7 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK4
10 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($595,000), Glass (Disney) NEW


>Masquerade Hotel is aiming to really liven the box office up this weekend, likely on track to achieve one of the biggest opening weekends ever for the month of January (if not setting a new record). Directed by Masayuki Suzuki (best known for the incredibly popular Hero TV drama and its movies), a debut above ¥500 million seems all but certain for the mystery murder case film, and it should approach ¥600 million as well. ¥622.2 million is needed to break the January opening weekend record held by 2009's 20th Century Boys - Chapter 2: The Last Hope. 

This will be a film to watch even after it opens. The box office doesn't have too many major films released between now and the Spring, and if the audience reception is strong, it could go on to have an impressive run. At the very least, it seems almost a lock to exceed ¥3 billion ($25-30 million) with just a normal run, so expect a finish likely higher than that.

>Bohemian Rhapsody finally appears to be slowing down now. Not only were its recent weekdays "normal", but it lost a good amount of screen/showtimes this weekend, and its pre-sales are also down a fair bit. There hasn't been any big film targeting adult audiences, really, since it opened, so it's very possible Masquerade Hotel may be impacting it some as well. Either way, it'll be on the cusp of the ¥10 billion uber-blockbuster milestone after Sunday.

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly will likely outgross Resurrection F over the weekend to become the highest grossing film in the franchise. Very impressive indeed, and while it's unlikely, there's still a slim shot at reaching the ¥4 billion milestone.

>Touken Ranbu: The Movie is the weekend wild card opener. It's only playing on 111 screens, but it performed very well on Friday and its pre-sales are good this weekend. That said, it's going to be frontloaded I suspect given its audience, so it could quickly fall as the weekend progresses. 

>Taxi 5 is a France import released via Asmik Ace. It won't do much, but a Top 10 debut looks doable. 

>Glass makes a surprising day-and-date release in the market, but Disney is barely giving it a wide release on 101 screens. It did so-so business on Friday, and pre-sales look decent enough to make the Top 10, but don't be surprised if it just misses and ranks 11th/12th. If it missed the Top 10, then Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald will probably round out the Top 10 in its ninth weekend of release.
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On 1/17/2019 at 3:14 AM, feasby007 said:

Also courtesy of Corpse, the 2018 update:

 

2018 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.44 billion ($84.3 million) / 6.84 million [67] - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox)
¥9.23 billion ($83.1 million) / 7.18 million [E] - Code Blue (Toho)
¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) / 6.88 million [F] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho)
¥8.06 billion ($72.2 million) / 5.53 million [E] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Toho-Towa)
¥7.50 billion ($66.2 million) / 5.05 million [F] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney)
¥5.37 billion ($50.0 million) / 4.68 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Toho)
¥5.21 billion ($48.4 million) / 3.73 million [F] - The Greatest Showman (Fox)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.93 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.93 million [E] - Coco (Disney)
¥4.83 billion ($43.7 million) / 4.02 million [E] - Incredibles 2 (Disney)
¥4.68 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.39 million [E] - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (Toho-Towa)
¥4.53 billion ($40.9 million) / 3.67 million [F] - Shoplifters (Gaga)
¥3.73 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.50 million [F] - Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)
¥3.66 billion ($32.8 million) / 2.83 million [F] - Gintama 2 (Warner Bros.)
¥3.43 billion ($31.8 million) / 2.93 million [F] - The Boss Baby (Toho-Towa)
¥3.21 billion ($28.6 million) / 2.54 million [F] - Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho)
¥3.06 billion ($27.5 million) / 2.19 million [E] - One Cut of the Dead (Asmik Ace)
¥3.00 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.64 million [E] - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.90 billion ($26.1 million) / 2.30 million [E] - Killing for the Prosecutors (Toho)
¥2.82 billion ($25.7 million) / 2.24 million [E] - Mirai of the Future (Toho)
¥2.80 billion ($25.0 million) / 2.23 million [F] - The 8-Year Engagement (Shochiku)
¥2.50 billion ($22.8 million) / 1.53 million [E] - Ready Player One (Warner Bros.)
¥2.41 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.81 million [E] - Christopher Robin (Disney)
¥2.15 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.49 million [E] - Venom (Sony)
¥2.09 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.50 million [E] - Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.2 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.88 billion ($16.7 million) / 1.43 million [E] - Stolen Identity (Toho)
¥1.83 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.55 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho)
¥1.78 billion ($16.2 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Deadpool 2 (Fox)
¥1.73 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.47 million [F] - Chihayafuru: Conclusion (Toho)
¥1.70 billion ($15.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Legend of the Demon Cat (Toho/Kadokawa)
¥1.70 billion ($15.3 million) / 1.22 million [F] - Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox)
¥1.70 billion ($15.2 million) / 1.36 million [E] - Recall (Shochiku)
¥1.64 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.)
¥1.62 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.28 million [F] - Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
¥1.60 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.29 million [E] - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (Toho)
¥1.59 billion ($14.5 million) / 1.27 million [F] - The Crimes That Bind (Toho)
¥1.55 billion ($14.4 million) / 1.03 million [F] - Black Panther (Disney)
¥1.48 billion ($13.0 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Meg (Warner Bros.)
¥1.45 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.14 million [E] - Café Funiculi Funicula (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million) / 1.06 million [F] - Laplace's Witch (Toho)
¥1.28 billion ($11.4 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Ant-Man and the Wasp (Disney)
¥1.26 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.06 million [E] - Kamen Hensei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid With Legend Riders (Toei)
¥1.23 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.90 million [E] - Geostorm (Warner Bros.)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - 50 First Kisses (Sony)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (Sony)
¥1.20 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Sakura: Guardian in the North (Toei)
¥1.18 billion ($10.7 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Sensei Kunshu (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.87 million [E] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥1.12 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.96 million [E] - Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Star Memories (Toei)
¥1.11 billion ($9.9 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Peter Rabbit (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($9.8 million) / 0.88 million [E] - Every Day, A Good Day (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)
¥1.01 billion ($9.5 million) / 0.79 million [E] - Tonight, at the Movies (Warner Bros.)
¥1.00 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Kamen Rider Build: Be the One (Toei)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

Bohemian Rhapsody $120mn Full run?

 

BTW is Japan the only non-predictable market of the world.:sparta:

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Also, an Indian film Bajrangi Bhaijaan released in Japan yesterday, can anyone get the boxoffice numbers/estimates of that film.

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5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Bohemian Rhapsody $120mn Full run?

 

BTW is Japan the only non-predictable market of the world.:sparta:

This weekends est have it down 27% so it's first 'normal' drop, it might be running out of steam. 

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7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Bohemian Rhapsody $120mn Full run?

 

BTW is Japan the only non-predictable market of the world.:sparta:

As Pepsa said, this weekend the presales are finally down a normal amount, indicating BR may be slowing down. However, this may be because a new film doing big business is finally aimed at the same adult audience. 

 

Also that -27% was only a forecast, meaning it'll likely change with estimates. And then again with actuals!

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1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

As Pepsa said, this weekend the presales are finally down a normal amount, indicating BR may be slowing down. However, this may be because a new film doing big business is finally aimed at the same adult audience. 

 

Also that -27% was only a forecast, meaning it'll likely change with estimates. And then again with actuals!

Coming off from a strong, post-golden globe + holidays weekend, we can't really expect BR to have good hold, especially with multiple new releases in the market. From the figure now, we will expect something 30%+ drop this weekend, Should stabilize next week when new fresh buzz from Oscar nomination( should BR got nominated)  

 

 

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Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/19-20)
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(C)2019 映画「マスカレード・ホテル」製作委員会 (C)東野圭吾/集英社

Weekend Estimates (01/19-20)
01 (---) ¥625,000,000 ($5.7 million), 0, ¥775,000,000 ($7.1 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥243,000,000 ($2.2 million), -39%, ¥9,925,000,000 ($88.8 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK11
03 (01) ¥206,000,000 ($1.9 million), -58%, ¥1,010,000,000 ($9.3 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK2
04 (03) ¥146,000,000 ($1.3 million), -37%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.9 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK5
05 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) NEW
06 (07) ¥x71,000,000 ($650,000), -15%, ¥595,000,000 ($5.5 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK3
07 (04) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), -39%, ¥3,755,000,000 ($33.9 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK6
08 (---) ¥50,000,000 ($455,000), 0, ¥65,000,000 ($595,000), Taxi 5 (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (06) ¥x46,000,000 ($420,000), -49%, ¥940,000,000 ($8.6 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK4
10 (08) ¥x39,000,000 ($355,000), -53%, ¥6,460,000,000 ($57.7 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK9


>Masquerade Hotel debuts atop the box office in a big way, and if the estimate holds, it broke the January Opening Weekend Record that's held for 10 years. Directed by Masayuki Suzuki (best known for the incredibly popular Hero TV drama and its movies), the mystery murder case film likely sold close to 500,000 admissions over the weekend frame. This is an excellent start (a January record, possibly, as mentioned), and will likely result in a total between of ¥4.0-4.5 billion ($35-40 million). 

The year has just begun, but this is already an early candidate to make the Yearly Top 10 if it can just do slightly better than average legs. Toho really, really needed this after a very poor Fall.

>Bohemian Rhapsody finally experiences its first real drop, and it came after almost three months of release! A decline was likely given how its performed since last Monday, and after the weekend pre-sales came in, but a drop close to 40% is harsher than expected. Still, its eleventh weekend is still the seventh biggest on record. Incredibly impressive. I'm expecting it to more or less perform like a regular film from this point forward, and expect it finish close to ¥12 billion ($110 million). 

>Ralph Breaks the Internet also fell a bit harder than it should have, and with no holidays or other support at the box office until late March, it's going to make reaching the ¥4 billion milestone a lot more challenging than expected now. I think it'll get there, but it may be one of those films that stops being tracked less than ¥100 million shy of the mark. 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly likely surpassed Resurrection F to become the highest grossing film in the Dragon Ball franchise. Toei is likely to announce this ahead of tomorrow's actuals. Can it reach ¥4 billion? Maybe, but like Ralph 2, tracking could end just shy of the milestone.

>Touken Ranbu: The Movie ended up opening pretty close to the forecast, but its actual could vary, either high or low, a good bit tomorrow because I don't have a good comparison to predict its average ticket price.

>Glass likely missed the Top 10, debuting in 11th place.
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On 12/30/2018 at 3:50 AM, titanic2187 said:

I have an crazy idea about bohemian's run in Japan.

I compare BR with Les Miserable in 2012, the year also, the Christmas and new year fall on Tuesday.

 

Les Miserable's opening

Dec. 22–23 2 $3,591,693    -    360    -     $9,977     $4,608,613   1

 

BR's 7th weekend.

Dec. 22–23 3 $3,436,423 -9.4% 506 -12 $6,791 $55,301,899  7

 

Since Les's opening gross on the opening is about the same as BR's pre-Christmas gross at the same time frame, it make the comparison realistic and even more when Les is also an PG-13 music-themed film. 

Let us assume the BR would follow Les's run from here.

Les's final total is 62m, if BR follow the same pathway, BR could get up to 110m!!!!! or ¥12.5b Yen! 

 

So it seems to me that BR has indeed had a very comparable BO run to Les Mis since X-Mas. BR did drop harder than Les Mis last weekend (-37 vs -24) but it should still be on track to $110mil, right?

Edited by KATCH-2D2
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(C)2019 映画「マスカレード・ホテル」製作委員会 (C)東野圭吾/集英社

Weekend Actuals (01/19-20)
01 (---) ¥633,000,000 ($5.8 million), 0, ¥798,708,300 ($7.3 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥249,237,300 ($2.3 million), -37%, ¥9,946,358,480 ($89.0 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK11
03 (01) ¥185,804,480 ($1.7 million), -62%, ¥946,841,221 ($8.8 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK2
04 (03) ¥143,931,400 ($1.3 million), -38%, ¥3,474,913,800 ($31.9 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK5
05 (---) ¥121,405,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥188,040,100 ($1.7 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) NEW
06 (04) ¥x69,779,800 ($638,000), -39%, ¥3,752,223,000 ($33.9 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK6
07 (07) ¥x67,149,500 ($614,000), -20%, ¥592,767,500 ($5.5 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK3
08 (---) ¥65,442,000 ($598,000), 0, ¥65,442,000 ($598,000), Taxi 5 (Asmik Ace) NEW
09 (06) ¥x46,495,200 ($425,000), -49%, ¥949,817,000 ($8.7 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku) WK4
10 (08) ¥x40,576,000 ($371,000), -52%, ¥6,470,212,700 ($57.8 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK9


>Masquerade Hotel debuts atop the box office, and set a new January Opening Weekend Record, a record that remained unbroken for ten years. Director Masayuki Suzuki's murder mystery sold an impressive 484,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 349 screens, and reached 614,450 tickets sold since opening on Friday. This is an excellent start, one that will likely result in a total between of ¥4.0-4.5 billion ($35-40 million). The year has just begun, but this is already an early candidate to make the Yearly Top 10 if it can just do slightly better than average legs.

>Bohemian Rhapsody finally experiences its first real drop, but it didn't come until after almost three months of release! A decline was likely given the pattern of its weekdays leading up to the weekend, but its eleventh weekend is still the seventh biggest on record. Incredibly impressive. I'm expecting it to more or less perform like a regular film from this point forward, and expect it finish close to ¥12 billion ($110 million). It became 2018's highest grossing film last weekend, and this weekend it became 2018's most attended film as well with 7.19 million admissions. 

>Ralph Breaks the Internet isn't holding too well after the holidays, and is going to make reaching the ¥4 billion milestone fairly difficult after all. If it can reach ¥4 billion, it'll have achieved what's the standard total for the average Disney and/or Pixar film, but its legs will also be down versus nearly all of its studio predecessors. 

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly has officially become the highest grossing film in the Dragon Ball franchise, surpassing the total of its predecessor, Resurrection F. The twentieth film in the franchise has also sold over 2.9 million admissions after 38 days in release. There's a chance it may reach the ¥4 billion milestone, but it'll probably come down to Toei making the decision to keep it playing long enough to get to the mark.

>Touken Ranbu: The Movie manages a solid fifth place debut, selling 86,286 admissions over the weekend on a barely wide 111 screens, and 133,360 admissions since opening on Friday.

>Taxi 5, a France import, debuted in eighth place selling 49,164 admissions over the weekend across 347 screens. Given the screen count, this isn't impressive in the slightest, but it's generally a good accomplishment when a French release makes the Top 10.
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(C)2019 映画「マスカレード・ホテル」製作委員会 (C)東野圭吾/集英社

Weekend Forecast (01/26-27)
01 (01) ¥437,000,000 ($4.0 million), -31%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($16.0 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥224,000,000 ($2.0 million), -10%, ¥10,425,000,000 ($93.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK12
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (03) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), -38%, ¥1,175,000,00 ($10.8 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK3
05 (04) ¥x85,000,000 ($775,000), -41%, ¥3,605,000,000 ($33.0 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK6
06 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($730,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($955,000), Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment (Toho Video Division) NEW
07 (05) ¥x69,000,000 ($630,000), -43%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.3 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK2
08 (07) ¥x63,000,000 ($575,000), -05%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.6 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK4
09 (06) ¥x42,000,000 ($380,000), -40%, ¥3,825,000,000 ($34.6 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK7
10 (08) ¥x31,000,000 ($280,000), -52%, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), Taxi 5 (Asmik Ace) WK2


>Masquerade Hotel will easily remain atop the box office in its sophomore frame, and should deliver a pretty impressive second weekend. So far, everything is in order for it to reach the ¥4 billion ($35 million+) milestone. Toho couldn't have hoped for a much better start to the year. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody seems to have benefited a bit from its Oscar nominations, as its recent weekdays were barely down versus last week, and its weekend pre-sales suggest a very small drop in its twelfth weekend of release. If its weekend actual comes in near the forecast, it'll achieve the fifth biggest twelfth weekend ever recorded. 

>12 Suicidal Teens, directed by Yukihiko Tsutsumi (Trick, SPEC, 20th Century Boys), should see a decent debut in third place, but I can't help but think a little more was expected from this film. It had a good enough start on Friday, but its weekend pre-sales are a bit lackluster. We'll see. I think this film should be able to manage at least ¥200 million.

>Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment is the first film in a trilogy, where its sequels will be released just a few weeks apart (the second film opens Feb. 15th, and the third film opens March 8th), is a bit of a wildcard. I recall a prior film opening above expectations, so I wouldn't rule out a Top 5 debut and possible ¥100 million opening.

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From Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (01/26-27)
01 (01) ¥477,936,200 ($4.4 million), -25%, ¥1,890,628,800 ($17.3 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥267,547,400 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥339,218,900 ($3.1 million), 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (02) ¥235,631,214 ($2.2 million), -06%, ¥10,460,631,194 ($93.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK12
04 (03) ¥116,388,975 ($1.1 million), -37%, ¥1,167,859496 ($10.7 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) WK3
05 (04) ¥x94,141,700 ($861,000), -35%, ¥3,626,043,000 ($33.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK6
06 (05) ¥x81,083,200 ($742,000), -34%, ¥377,463,400 ($3.4 million), Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division) WK2
07 (---) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), 0, ¥96,882,800 ($886,000), Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment (Toho Video Division) NEW
08 (07) ¥x58,509,600 ($535,000), -13%, ¥712,448,400 ($6.6 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK4
09 (06) ¥x46,798,600 ($428,000), -33%, ¥3,837,205,500 ($34.7 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK7
10 (09) ¥x25,795,400 ($236,000), -45%, ¥1,026,887,300 ($9.4 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku) WK5


>Masquerade Hotel easily held off the competition, and achieved a very good second weekend hold in the process. Masayuki Suzuki's latest is really connecting with audiences so far, and not only is a ¥4 billion ($35 million) total very likely now, but it could certainly approach the ¥5 billion ($45 million) milestone if it has another strong result this upcoming week. It's very rare for a blockbuster to come out of January, and I honestly can't remember the last January release to exceed ¥5 billion. I'll do some research in the near future, but it may have last happened 10, maybe even 15 years ago. 

>Bohemian Rhapsody appears back to its incredible ways at the box office after one average week, dropping in the single digits. Its twelfth weekend is the fifth biggest ever recorded, and its twelve week total has made it the twenty-ninth highest grossing film ever. A total north of ¥12 billion ($110 million) is likely.

>12 Suicidal Teens, directed by Yukihiko Tsutsumi, ended up with a good debut after pre-sales were suggesting otherwise ahead of the weekend. It sold 206,636 admissions over the weekend frame across 343 screens, and sold 263,398 admissions since opening on Friday. Expect a total above ¥1.5 billion ($15 million). 

>Ralph Breaks the Internet is showing rather disappointing legs the past few weeks, and I'm confident in saying it's not going to reach the ¥4 billion milestone at this point. It has outgrossed the original by a decent margin, but missing ¥4 billion -- the standard for a Disney and/or Pixar release -- after its opening is unfortunate.  

>Psycho Pass: Case 1 - Crime & Punishment settled for seventh place, and its weekend gross remains an estimate for now. Its cumulative total is the actual figure, though, and it sold 66,335 admissions since Friday across 87 screens.

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly held pretty well in its seventh weekend, and having already become the highest grossing film in the Dragon Ball franchise, the only question now is whether or not it can reach the ¥4 billion milestone. I'm still predicting it's going to fall barely shy, but it's not impossible.

 

Biggest Twelfth Weekends/Twelve Week Totals (2001-)
¥759.4 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥395.0 million ($3.6 million), -09%, ¥24.40 billion ($200.2 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥258.7 million ($2.4 million), -13%, ¥18.49 billion ($179.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥255.1 million ($2.8 million), -18%, ¥13.82 billion ($155.0 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥235.6 million ($2.2 million), -06%, ¥10.46 billion ($93.7 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥188.5 million ($1.8 million), -25%, ¥17.23 billion ($167.9 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥177.8 million ($1.4 million), -45%, ¥19.19 billion ($146.2 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥177.0 million ($1.6 million), -19%, ¥12.44 billion ($115.6 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥135.5 million ($1.1 million), -08%, ¥16.51 billion ($147.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥124.2 million ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥16.43 billion ($138.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

 

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So is Aquaman ready for the Japanese party or what?

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https://variety.com/2019/film/asia/japan-box-office-down-in-2018-1203121975/

 

Cinema box office in Japan dropped by 3% last year to $2.04 billion. But 2018 was still the third-highest year on record.

According to data published by the Motion Picture Producers Assn. of Japan (Eiren), Japanese-produced films earned $1.12 billion, down 2.8% from 2017. They still grabbed a majority of the market for the 11th year in a row, with a 55% share. Admissions for the year totaled 169.2 million, also down 3%.

 

Thirty-one Japanese films made JPY1 billion ($9.15 million) or more, considered the mark of a hit. The corresponding figure for foreign films was 23. The number of local films released was 613. There were 579 foreign titles released, for a total of 1,192. It was the sixth year in a row that annual releases exceeded 1,000.

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2018 Yearly Results:

Yearly Revenue: ¥222.511 billion ($2.04 billion), -2.7%, 3rd Biggest Year Ever (behind 2016 > 2017)
Yearly Admissions: 169,210,000, -3.0%, 6th Most-Attended Year Since 2000 (behind 2016 > 2017 > 2010 > 2004 > 2009)


Japanese Film Share - 54.8%: ¥122.029 billion ($1.12 billion), -2.8%, 4th Biggest Year Ever (behind 2016 > 2012 > 2017)
Imported Film Share - 45.2%: ¥100.482 billion ($922 million), -2.5%, 3rd Biggest Year This Decade (behind 2017 > 2010)


# Of Japanese Films Released: 613, +3.2%, 2nd Most Japanese Films Ever Released (behind 2014)
# Of Imported Films Released: 579, -2.4%, 2nd Most Imported Films Ever Released (behind 2017)
# Of Overall Films Released: 1,192, +0.04%, Most Films Ever Released (beating 2017)
# Of Films Reaching ¥1 Billion ($10 million): 54, -13%, Lowest Number Since 2011


Number of Theater Screens: 3,561, +0.1%, Highest Screen Count Since 1969
Average Ticket Price: ¥1,315 ($12.06), +0.4%, New Record! (beating 2017)


*2018 marks the eleventh-consecutive year that Japanese Films earned more than Imported Films.

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On 1/29/2019 at 7:58 AM, KP1025 said:

From Corpse:
>Ralph Breaks the Internet is showing rather disappointing legs the past few weeks, and I'm confident in saying it's not going to reach the ¥4 billion milestone at this point. It has outgrossed the original by a decent margin, but missing ¥4 billion -- the standard for a Disney and/or Pixar release -- after its opening is unfortunate. 

Mirrors the Dom bo sentiments.

Edited by a2k

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