JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Nero]

53 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Will EG cross $40M in Japan?

Definitely possible and maybe $50M but can't say anything right now. Depends on how well it is received.

[Olive]

Kingdom movie just breaks out

[Tower]

(C)2019 青山剛昌／名探偵コナン製作委員会

Weekend Forecast (04/20-21)
01 (01) ¥893,000,000 ($8.0 million), -39%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($30.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥425,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥600,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) NEW
03 (---) ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥350,000,000 ($3.1 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (---) ¥x70,000,000 ($625,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($895,000), Sound! Euphonium the Movie: Finale Oath (Shochiku) NEW
06 (02) ¥x57,000,000 ($510,000), -42%, ¥4,755,000,000 ($43.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK8
07 (05) ¥x56,000,000 ($500,000), -27%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($31.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK9
08 (03) ¥x53,000,000 ($475,000), -41%, ¥315,000,000 ($2.8 million), Hunter Killer (Gaga) WK2
09 (04) ¥x46,000,000 ($410,000), -40%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Dumbo (Disney) WK4
10 (06) ¥x42,000,000 ($375,000), -38%, ¥1,965,000,000 ($17.8 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK6

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire is easily going to hold onto its #1 spot, and it's likely to deliver a humongous second weekend. The weekend forecast above would set a new franchise record, along with a new two-week total franchise record. It would also achieve the fifth biggest second weekend of the decade, and the fourth biggest second weekend ever for an animated film. 

Besides Detective Conan, the weekend is seeing a wave of new openers that are all likely to perform well:

>Kingdom, the first live-action adaptation of the very popular manga series, will come in second place. It delivered a good start on Friday, and while I don't think it'll quite get there, it has the potential to hit ¥500 million over the weekend. A debut on this level is good any time of the year, but it's particularly good for this time of year, just two weeks before Golden Week (and this year's is the longest ever), since legs are typically strong. A ¥3/4 billion (~$30/35 million) total would be doable.

>Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi, the twenty-seventh film in the long-running animated franchise, will debut in third place. Pre-sales suggest it'll come in 15-20% below last year's film, but anything above ¥300 million is a bit above average for the franchise.

>Shazam! will have to settle for fourth place, and if any opener is to be considered a "disappointment" this weekend, it'll be this one. It had a bit of a rough start yesterday, and pre-sales today suggest it'll have one of the weakest debuts among all Marvel/DC films. That said... I wouldn't necessarily consider this as poor given the difficulty to market this one to Japanese audiences.

[KP1025]

Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (04/20-21)
01 (01) ¥886,102,100 ($8.0 million), -39%, ¥3,587,449,900 ($32.3 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥526,000,000 ($4.7 million), 0, ¥690,219,500 ($6.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) NEW
03 (---) ¥289,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥316,049,500 ($2.8 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥167,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥220,244,700 ($2.0 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($580,000), 0, ¥x95,000,000 ($850,000), Sound! Euphonium the Movie: Finale Oath (Shochiku) NEW *Est*
06 (05) ¥x45,088,100 ($403,000), -41%, ¥3,427,068,800 ($31.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK9
07 (06) ¥x43,771,300 ($391,000), -35%, ¥1,973,058,500 ($17.9 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK6
08 (02) ¥x41,445,900 ($370,000), -42%, ¥4,739,882,100 ($43.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK8
09 (03) ¥x40,687,700 ($363,000), -55%, ¥261,684,300 ($2.3 million), Hunter Killer (Gaga) WK2
10 (04) ¥x36,083,300 ($322,000), -53%, ¥853,503,800 ($7.7 million), Dumbo (Disney) WK4
11 (07) ¥x23,698,500 ($212,000), -44%, ¥1,913,604,900 ($17.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK8
12 (08) ¥x23,638,100 ($211,000), -43%, ¥115,143,900 ($1.0 million), Halloween (Parco) WK2

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire easily holds onto its #1 spot, and delivered a monstrous second weekend in the process. Selling a further 678,000 admissions in its sophomore frame, it set a new franchise second weekend record and new two-week total record. Its second weekend also allowed it to achieve the fifth biggest second weekend of the decade, and the fourth biggest second weekend ever for an animated film. The likelihood of exceeding ¥8 billion ($70 million+) is very good now, and it could certainly reach ¥9 billion ($80 million).  

>Kingdom, the first live-action adaptation of the very popular manga series, debuts strong in second place, selling 382,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 388 screens, and sold 506,861 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a great start, and it should be able to reach a total around ¥3.5/4 billion ($30-35 million).  

>Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi, the twenty-seventh film in the long-running animated franchise, came in third place over the weekend selling 242,000 admissions on 356 screens, and sold 263,544 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a 21% decline compared to last year's film, but the debut is still on par with the franchise norm. Expect a finish above ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).  

>Shazam! settles for a fourth place debut, selling 115,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 723 screens, and sold 152,807 admissions since opening on Friday. This is one of the worst opening for a Marvel/DC film in the market, but as I said on Friday, this film would have been a difficult sell to Japanese audiences, so it really couldn't have performed much better. I think it did just fine.

>Sound! Euphonium the Movie: Finale Oath hasn't had its weekend numbers released yet, so those above remain estimates.

>Dumbo was unable to recover from its borderline bomb debut two-weeks ago, and it can definitely be declared a bomb now since it's not going to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone. Very disappointing result for Disney, but maybe even more so for Tim Burton in the market.

>Green Book became the highest-grossing Academy Award Best Picture Winner of the decade, surpassing The King's Speech in its eighth-weekend of release. It'll be a slow, slow crawl, but I bet Gaga keeps it playing long enough to reach the ¥2 billion milestone.

>Bohemian Rhapsody experienced a sharp decline (~60%) down the charts, coming in around 20th place, but has brought its total up to ¥12.93 billion ($115.9 million) on 9.33 million admissions.

[charlie Jatinder]

Can Endgame breach $15mn weekend. Though I will be content with $12mn.

[Olive]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can Endgame breach $15mn weekend. Though I will be content with $12mn.

PS not great out side of IMAX shows.

[Stewart]

Reminder from Corpse regarding Golden Week:

 

A reminder about the unprecedented event that's about to occur in Japan:

The traditional Golden Week Holiday frame will begin on April 29th (Showa Day), as it always has, and will be followed with other national holidays on May 3rd (Constitution Day), May 4th (Greenery Day), and May 5th (Children's Day). Golden Week happens every year, to the surprise of no one who follows this thread, and is one of the three biggest weeks at the box-office along with New Year in January and Obon Festival in August.

However, this year's Golden Week Holiday frame is being expanded. On April 30th, Emperor Akihito is abdicating the chrysanthemum throne, and Crown Prince Naruhito will ascend the throne on May 1st. As a result of this, May 1st (typically not a holiday) will be a national holiday this year. And due to May 1st becoming a national holiday, April 30th and May 2nd (typically not holidays) also become national holidays because a day between two national holidays is then declared a holiday itself. And finally, May 6th (typically not a holiday) also becomes a national holiday because May 5th (a national holiday) falls on a Sunday, and when a holiday falls on a Sunday, the following Monday is declared a holiday! 

So, this year's Golden Week is basically from April 27th (accounting for the weekend) through May 6th with NO regular days. This means there will be an unprecedented 10-day period, a consecutive 8-day holiday frame, where all schools and most workplaces are closed. New Year and Obon Festival, and a normal Golden Week, are all week-long holiday frames, however, each of them have regular days within that week where either school or workplaces are open. 

Here is a look at each day coming up: 

April 27th - Weekend 
April 28th - Weekend
April 29th - Showa Day (National Holiday)
April 30th - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

We won't see any official box-office numbers during this entire period, and probably won't get them until May 7th/8th. I'll be posting daily estimates along the way.

[Olive]

Heard AEG broke PS record for HLW movie.

[lor15]

Lets see if Japan show some love to the mcu

[IceFire9yt]

By complete chance, Endgame is perfectly positioned for this 8 day holiday.  I'm really curious to see how much it can take advantage of it.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Olive said:

Heard AEG broke PS record for HLW movie.

Well. That didn't aged well.

 

On 4/23/2019 at 9:57 AM, Olive said:

PS not great out side of IMAX shows.

 

[John Marston]

Will Japan finally join in on the fun?

[cdsacken]

Spoiler post is deleted on main Avengers End Game thread from page 573. However several viewed (I missed it by 5 seconds). Be advised if you are truly concerned about spoilers I'm not sure any thread is safe from trolls so be careful.

[Stewart]

Looking around Tokyo at Toho's theatres... Endgame has pretty much sold out half the showings and the rest have "very few seats left"... 

 

It seems even Japan is joining the madness. 

 

Here's an example theatre:

Edited April 25, 2019 by Stewart

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Looking around Tokyo at Toho's theatres... Endgame has pretty much sold out half the showings and the rest have "very few seats left"... 

 

It seems even Japan is joining the madness. 

 

Here's an example theatre:

Give me nice juicy 75mn. Japan.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Give me nice juicy 75mn. Japan.

Won't quite go that far yet, but 50m is in the realm of possibility imo

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Won't quite go that far yet, but 50m is in the realm of possibility imo

The nothing crazy. Under +25% is blah for Endgame.

 

BTW when will corpse forecast come.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Won't quite go that far yet, but 50m is in the realm of possibility imo

In other words, 75 confirmed. Endgame Logic©️

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The nothing crazy. Under +25% is blah for Endgame.

For a stable and heavily developed market like Japan that despises most CBM, 50m would be fantastic. 

 

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

In other words, 75 confirmed. Endgame Logic©️

Well, no. But yeah why not

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Stewart said:

For a stable and heavily developed market like Japan that despises most CBM, 50m would be fantastic. 

Not for CBMs. Europe is pretty stable. Iykwim.