Jump to content

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Yeah I've been using 70% instead of usual 67%. 

 

I'm same as you though a little higher on end due to 8-day holidays. Thinking 15/55.

 

AEG has 90 Local Rating  .. Which is More then All MCU Films in Japan ..

 

So Movie Will Have Long Run .. $50 Million Should Be the Target (Life time Numbers)

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Hmmm Going Great

Edited by Sunny Max

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coming into release week, does anyone have a decent idea of how things are looking for Pikachu? Still probably around the 3-5B¥ figure from a little while back?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, dakus said:

Coming into release week, does anyone have a decent idea of how things are looking for Pikachu? Still probably around the 3-5B¥ figure from a little while back?

Someone in WoKJ ask about Pikachu. Here’s the Corpse answer :

 

It's a hard to one to predict. It has its pros and cons, and I think we just need to wait and see on it. It opens first in Japan on May 3rd, so it won't be long now. One more con to add to the list though is that it won't be able to achieve a particularly high screen/showtime count with its release date. Detective Conan is still playing very well, and with Avengers breaking out (for its genre), the May 3rd date isn't ideal. 

I think it'll do fine, but I certainty don't expect a breakout or earth-shattering performance that people immediately began predicting for the market.

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Disbelief 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For EG :

 

I have some family plans for most of today, so after the final Sunday update in a few hours, I won't be posting anything else until later this evening (around 5/6PM EST). I'll have several charts up then.  

I will post some data and an estimate in the meantime, though, since Sunday won't be changing much in the last hour or two and I'll be away most of the day:

Endgame will achieve the biggest opening weekend for a superhero film since Spider-Man 3, and it should clear the ¥1 billion milestone over the weekend frame, becoming the only non-Spider-Man superhero film to do so! I'm going to estimate a debut weekend around ¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) with 675,000 admissions, and a 3-day total of ¥1.6 billion ($14.3 million) with 1,025,000 admissions. This will be slightly above a 50% increase over Infinity War, for comparison.

However, while this debut is excellent, it did show the natural signs of frontloading that nearly every Marvel/DC films experiences, despite its event status. It dropped almost 10% on Sunday, which is a bit high for a film on this scale. This is especially true in very recent years where Sundays have become stronger, and a lot of films have been enjoying Sunday increases. Also, its Sunday is the day before a national holiday (Showa Day) which typically boosts the day, but it didn't here. You could make an argument* that perhaps some are waiting until the holidays to see it, which could be true, we'll have to wait and see.

*This argument doesn't normally ring true, but it may this time around because the next 8 (EIGHT) days are all holidays, every single one of them, creating the first ever Super Golden Week from April 29th-May 6th

 

and...

 

And I want to express right now how significant Endgame's debut in Japan really is, because it's going to be viewed as one of its weakest markets this weekend by many, I'm sure, despite it opening 50%+ higher than Infinity War and doubling the debut Marvel's The Avengers.

It's very important to remember that the superhero genre isn't hugely popular in Japan. Out of over 50 Marvel/DC films, only 3 of them have reached blockbuster status (¥5 billion) in the market -- the original Spider-Man trilogy of films. It's a little early, but Endgame will probably get to that milestone when no other superhero film (besides the Spider-Man OT) has come close; none of them even managed to reach ¥4 billion.

So while its debut is going to look "weak" in general, it's only going to be the 7th or 8th biggest debut in just the month of April for example, it's an incredible opening for the superhero genre in the market.

 

 

 


 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

AED has already fallen behind Conan 23 on Monday. Down on Sunday despite Monday being a national holiday while Conan 23 is up 32%. It's actually the only film down compared to Sunday which was already down compared to Saturday (a rarity for Friday openers). Legs not looking very promising, as is standard for Marvel/DC movies. If Disney's $13M estimate holds, I think $50M will be in jeopardy. 

Edited by Cynosure
  • Sad 2
  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice well done Japan. No one expected even a decent increase and it does a massive one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Cynosure said:

AED has already fallen behind Conan 23 on Monday. Down on Sunday despite Monday being a national holiday while Conan 23 is up 32%. It's actually the only film down compared to Sunday which was already down compared to Saturday (a rarity for Friday openers). Legs not looking very promising, as is standard for Marvel/DC movies. If Disney's $13M estimate holds, I think $50M will be in jeopardy. 

Probably. Give it time. Monday drops are going to brutal in lots of places China as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Probably. Give it time. Monday drops are going to brutal in lots of places China as well.

China Monday is Gonna Be $17 M To $18 M ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Corpse

 

Super Golden Week, Daily Estimates (04/29-05/06)

Monday, 04/29 (Showa Day)
¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 04
¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), +291%, ¥5,060,000,000 ($45.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 18
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +165%, ¥1,805,000,000 ($16.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 11
¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), +408%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 11
¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +41%, ¥445,000,000 ($3.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +437%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 60
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +244%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 67
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 04
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 03


Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.


Upcoming:
April 30th - National Holiday (Emperor Abdicates, Heisei Era Ends)
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor Ascends, Reiwa Era Begins)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

 
AEG fell to 2nd place in admissions but keeps 1st place in gross.  
Edited by Cynosure
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday, 04/30 (National Holiday - Emperor Abdicates; Heisei Era Ends)
¥460,000,000 ($4.1 million), +668%, ¥5,520,000,000 ($50.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 19
¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥2,470,000,000 ($22.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 05
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +256%, ¥2,085,000,000 ($18.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 12
¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), +1,861%, ¥945,000,000 ($8.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 12
¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +89%, ¥490,000,000 ($4.3 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), +2,220%, ¥4,805,000,000 ($43.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 61
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +370%, ¥3,505,000,000 ($31.8 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 68
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 04
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x80,000,000 ($720,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 05


Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.


Upcoming:
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor Ascends, Reiwa Era Begins)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Wait, EG is gonna pass 5B yen easily, no? Let's say it averages 350M for the next 6 days. Then by the end of this Super Golden Week, EG will have amassed 4.57B yen. Surely it will make way more than 430M for the rest of its run? And if the daily average becomes 400M, then it's 4.87B after Golden Week. So maybe 6B+ total?

Edited by catlover

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, catlover said:

Wait, EG is gonna pass 5B yen easily, no? Let's say it averages 350M for the next 6 days. Then by the end of this Super Golden Week, EG will have amassed 4.57B yen. Surely it will be way more than 430M for the rest of its run?

Yes I agree 5B yen is very likely. Also 6B is within a chance, depending on how it holds during the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

via Corpse, absolutely monstrous Wednesday for all movies (admissions much higher as National Discount day):

 

Super Golden Week, Daily Estimates (04/29-05/06)

Monday, 04/29 (National Holiday - Showa Day)
¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 04
¥450,000,000 ($4.0 million), +291%, ¥5,060,000,000 ($45.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 18
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +165%, ¥1,805,000,000 ($16.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 11
¥160,000,000 ($1.4 million), +408%, ¥755,000,000 ($6.7 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 11
¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +41%, ¥445,000,000 ($3.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +437%, ¥4,775,000,000 ($43.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 60
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +244%, ¥3,480,000,000 ($31.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 67
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 04
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 03


Tuesday, 04/30 (National Holiday - Emperor Abdicates; Heisei Era Ends)
¥460,000,000 ($4.1 million), +668%, ¥5,520,000,000 ($50.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 19
¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), 0, ¥2,470,000,000 ($22.2 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 05
¥280,000,000 ($2.5 million), +256%, ¥2,085,000,000 ($18.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 12
¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), +1,861%, ¥945,000,000 ($8.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 12
¥x45,000,000 ($405,000), +89%, ¥490,000,000 ($4.3 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), +3,020%, ¥4,805,000,000 ($43.6 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 61
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +370%, ¥3,505,000,000 ($31.8 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 68
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 04
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), 0, ¥x80,000,000 ($720,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 05


Wednesday, 05/01 (National Holiday - New Emperor Ascends; Reiwa Era Begins)
¥545,000,000 ($4.9 million), +546%, ¥6,065,000,000 ($55.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 20
¥495,000,000 ($4.4 million), 0, ¥2,965,000,000 ($26.6 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 06
¥350,000,000 ($3.1 million), +243%, ¥2,435,000,000 ($21.8 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 13
¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), +1,479%, ¥1,170,000,000 ($10.4 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 13
¥x60,000,000 ($535,000), +131%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 13
¥x40,000,000 ($360,000), +2,935%, ¥4,845,000,000 ($44.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 62
¥x30,000,000 ($270,000), +271%, ¥3,535,000,000 ($32.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 69
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($945,000), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 06
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), 0, ¥x85,000,000 ($665,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 05


Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.


Upcoming:
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are we going to have a crash after holidays or can expect some legs because IMO by 6th total will be around $44-45mn 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Are we going to have a crash after holidays or can expect some legs because IMO by 6th total will be around $44-45mn 

Should defo hit $50m as I hoped. Weekend after will crash as usual for after holidays. However since it doesn't skew too young it shouldn't be the worst dropper. 

 

I'm hoping for legs after that though, perhaps on par with / little better than top MCU legs in market. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

which movies do you think will hit ¥10B  this year? (if any will). 

 

at first I thought Endgame would do it but looks like it will only finish with ¥5B-¥6B. 

the new Detective Conan movie could have a shot as it opened slightly bigger than Detective Conan Zero which made ¥9.1B last year.

 

Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast both did 10B+ (11.8B and 12.4B respectively) so Aladdin (!?) and Lion King could have a small shot at 10B. TLK more likely than Aladdin but The Jungle Book only did 2.3B few years ago so im not sure how TLK would do :thinking: 

 

I'm really rooting for Weathering With You (Tenki No Ko) to do well. Shinkai's last Film Your Name made 25B in a record breaking and historical run, and this one looks as beautiful as a Shinkai film can be. I'm not expecting it to do as well as Your Name cus that's crazy but it should do 10B+

 

There's also Frozen 2 (idk if it releases in Japan this year or in early next year like most Disney animated films but i'll assume it comes out in December like Ralph 2). Frozen 2 is almost locked for 10B+ it might even do 20B+. The first Frozen made 25.4B so I'm very curious how much will the sequel increase or decrease. 

 

 

overall I hope Weathering With You comes out on top, we haven't had an anime movie at the top of the Japanese box office since 2016 :ph34r:

 

 

 

 

tenko2.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by RealLyre
word
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, RealLyre said:

which movies do you think will hit ¥10B  this year? (if any will). 

 

at first I thought Endgame would do it but looks like it will only finish with ¥5B-¥6B. 

the new Detective Conan movie could have a shot as it opened slightly bigger than Detective Conan Zero which made ¥9.1B last year.

 

Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast both did 10B+ (11.8B and 12.4B respectively) so Aladdin (!?) and Lion King could have a small shot at 10B. TLK more likely than Aladdin but The Jungle Book only did 2.3B few years ago so im not sure how TLK would do :thinking: 

 

I'm really rooting for Weathering With You (Tenki No Ko) to do well. Shinkai's last Film Your Name made 25B in a record breaking and historical run, and this one looks as beautiful as a Shinkai film can be. I'm not expecting it to do as well as Your Name cus that's crazy but it should do 10B+

 

There's also Frozen 2 (idk if it releases in Japan this year or in early next year like most Disney animated films but i'll assume it comes out in December like Ralph 2). Frozen 2 is almost locked for 10B+ it might even do 20B+. The first Frozen made 25.4B so I'm very curious how much will the sequel increase or decrease. 

 

 

overall I hope Weathering With You comes out on top, we haven't had an anime movie at the top of the Japanese box office since 2016 :ph34r:

 

 

 

 

tenko2.gif

 

 

 

 

I agree with you you I think Weathering With You and Frozen II will both crack 10B and I imagine closer to if not exceed 20B. 

 

I’d give a small chance to Toy Story 4, Lion King and Rise of Skywalker. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thursday, 05/02 (Default National Holiday, Falls Between Holidays)
¥345,000,000 ($3.1 million), +509%, ¥6,410,000,000 ($58.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 21
¥335,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥3,300,000,000 ($29.6 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 07
¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), +248%, ¥2,665,000,000 ($23.9 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 14
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), +1,253%, ¥1,295,000,000 ($11.5 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 14
¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), +83%, ¥585,000,000 ($5.2 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 14
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +298%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($32.3 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 70
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +1,799%, ¥4,865,000,000 ($44.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 63
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 07
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), 0, ¥x95,000,000 ($855,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 05


Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.


Upcoming:
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CoolK said:
Thursday, 05/02 (Default National Holiday, Falls Between Holidays)
¥345,000,000 ($3.1 million), +509%, ¥6,410,000,000 ($58.6 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) Day 21
¥335,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥3,300,000,000 ($29.6 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) Day 07
¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), +248%, ¥2,665,000,000 ($23.9 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) Day 14
¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), +1,253%, ¥1,295,000,000 ($11.5 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) Day 14
¥x35,000,000 ($315,000), +83%, ¥585,000,000 ($5.2 million), Shazam! (Warner Bros.) Day 14
¥x25,000,000 ($225,000), +298%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($32.3 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 70
¥x20,000,000 ($180,000), +1,799%, ¥4,865,000,000 ($44.2 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 63
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.) Day 07
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), 0, ¥x95,000,000 ($855,000), Toei Anime Festival (Toei) Day 05


Note: Daily Estimates based on Weekend Estimates (actuals won't be out for over a week); margin-of-error is higher than usual.
% changes versus same day last week.


Upcoming:
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

 

Endgame will pass Infinity War on the 4th, and hopefully be able to run to $50m. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.