JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

Oh wow, a Dragon Quest movie. I hope it does well.

[VanillaSkies]

7 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Frozen Run Was Historic In Japan ... 2nd Most Watched Film Of All Time In Japan ..

 

Movie Stayed At Number 1 For 16 Consecutive Weeks in Japan ..  😮  

What are predictions for Frozen 2 this winter?
Is it expected to get close to that number, or a dramatic fall is assumed since lightning rarely strikes twice?

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are predictions for Frozen 2 this winter?
Is it expected to get close to that number, or a dramatic fall is assumed since lightning rarely strikes twice?

There's really no precedent in Japan. The only direct sequel to a ¥20+ billion film in Japan is Chamber of Secrets, and that only dropped 14% in admissions from the first film. Frozen doesn't seem like a fan-driven franchise like Harry Potter, so it will be interesting to see how much of the original audience the sequel can retain. 

[cannastop]

16 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are predictions for Frozen 2 this winter?
Is it expected to get close to that number, or a dramatic fall is assumed since lightning rarely strikes twice?

It has a weird release date in Japan for an expected blockbuster. End of November. I'm just going to guess it makes $140m in the market and be done with it.

Edited June 6, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

R136a1

 

It's probably not a strong month overall given the absence of holidays, but quite a few of the all-time highest grossing films were released in or near this late November period. 

5. ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (December 1, 2001)
6. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (November 20, 2004)
9. ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (November 23, 2002)

[cannastop]

Corpse

 

November is typically not one of the stronger months, but films with an established base (like Harry Potter/Fantastic Beasts) can perform well there. Frozen 2 will do fine there as well, I'm sure, but Disney really should just stick to mid-March for their big animated releases in Japan. 

Mid-March releases receive the benefit of Spring Break at the end of the month, and then if they're big enough, they can reach the Golden Week holiday frame a month later while still doing big numbers. And finally, if they're still doing big numbers after Golden Week, they can sometimes continue to do very well due to the lack of competition that May and June usually provide. November releases don't receive any sort of holiday benefit until New Year, the first week of January, and while New Year is one of the three biggest holiday frames, there's nothing else to benefit from for almost three full months afterwards.

So, Frozen 2 is going to be in release for five full weeks with no holiday boost before it reaches New Year in week six, and then it's going into three very ordinary months of no benefits. 

Disney seemed to be committed to the mid-March slot until very recently, and I don't know why they're changing their excellent release strategy now. For the record, I believe March would work better for Frozen 2, like it did for the original.

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Oh wow, a Dragon Quest movie. I hope it does well.

Never mind, it's CG, fuck that.

[Sunny Max]

6 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

What are predictions for Frozen 2 this winter?
Is it expected to get close to that number, or a dramatic fall is assumed since lightning rarely strikes twice?

Frozen Is Not A Fan Driven Franchise in Japan.. 2nd thing.. it is A November Release ... If You Want To Score Huge With Animated film ..Then Should Choose March Month For The Film .. i m Just Going To Guess it Makes $150 M in The Market ..

 

 

[Sunny Max]

5 hours ago, cannastop said:

It has a weird release date in Japan for an expected blockbuster. End of November. I'm just going to guess it makes $140m in the market and be done with it.

Yeah Without Holidays ...  Even $150 M figure Would Be huge ..

[XXR vs XXR]

I expect Frozen 2 to drop by at least $75m from the original. 

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I expect Frozen 2 to drop by at least $75m from the original. 

Yeah $150 M+ 

[cannastop]

Corpse

I rarely have to update the June Opening Weekend List (June is one of the weakest months for the box-office in Japan) but this year's has a number of films that could join Godzilla, so I expect to be updating it one or two more times this year. Interestingly though, despite June being a weak month, it's home to the film with the biggest opening weekend of all-time -- The Matrix Reloaded.I forgot to post this updated list on Monday. Godzilla: King of the Monsters achieved the fourth biggest opening weekend for the month of June, and the biggest opening in June in 11 years.

Biggest June Opening Weekends (1997-)

¥2.223 billion ($18.7 million) / 1,486,743 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.871 billion ($17.3 million) / 1,469,755 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥1.005 billion ($9.6 million) / 805,350 - Boys Over Flower: Final (2008)
¥676.9 million ($6.3 million) / 479,000 - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019)
¥624.2 million ($5.2 million) / 416,632 - Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle (2003)
¥603.5 million ($4.9 million) / 447,144 - Live Free or Die Hard (2007)
¥592.1 million ($6.1 million) / 461,866 - Terminator Salvation (2009)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) / 426,604 - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥562.6 million ($5.8 million) / 439,993 - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009)
¥512.2 million ($5.3 million) / 354,852 - Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance (2009)
¥506.2 million ($4.8 million) / 369,119 - The Magic Hour (2008)
¥499.3 million ($4.5 million) / 375,293 - Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)
¥444.8 million ($4.1 million) / 349,950 - Shoplifters (2018)
¥432.0 million ($3.8 million) / 320,000 - Trick 2 (2006)
¥412.9 million ($3.4 million) / 299,000 - 300 (2007)
¥408.8 million ($3.6 million) / 308,600 - Death Note (2006)
¥400.2 million ($3.3 million) / 251,811 - Love Live! The School Idol Movie (2015)

Edited June 6, 2019 by cannastop

[Sunny Max]

Woww .. Godzilla is Really A Big Brand in Japan ...  

[Stewart]

At 7pm at usual locations: (OD)

 

Zilla 2 - 71796 (¥242m)

Dumbo - 30791 (¥66m)

BATB - 87597 (¥322m)

 

Aladdin - 81921

 

So these comps give ¥276m, ¥176m or ¥301m for Opening Day, I'd say somewhere around ¥250m sounds about right (definitely better evenings than Dumbo, but probably slightly worse than KOTM/BATB). From there I'd expect a similar internal multiplier to BATB, meaning a ¥800m on the 2-day is possible depending on presales for tomorrow. So looking to earn maybe $9m+ on the 3-day, could be good enough for $70-100m depending on how it legs (musicals are usually fairly leggy).

[Sunny Max]

34 minutes ago, Stewart said:

At 7pm at usual locations: (OD)

 

Zilla 2 - 71796 (¥242m)

Dumbo - 30791 (¥66m)

BATB - 87597 (¥322m)

 

Aladdin - 81921

 

So these comps give ¥276m, ¥176m or ¥301m for Opening Day, I'd say somewhere around ¥250m sounds about right (definitely better evenings than Dumbo, but probably slightly worse than KOTM/BATB). From there I'd expect a similar internal multiplier to BATB, meaning a ¥800m on the 2-day is possible depending on presales for tomorrow. So looking to earn maybe $9m+ on the 3-day, could be good enough for $70-100m depending on how it legs (musicals are usually fairly leggy).

Excellent start by Aladdin ... OW will be better then KOTM ... 

[cannastop]

Corpse

 

¥260/270 million ($2.4/2.5 million) looks good for Friday. Internal multipliers vary greatly in the market, depending on the genre and the demographics, so it can be difficult to project weekend numbers just based on Friday. That said, ¥750/800 million (~$7-7.5 million) sounds like a good weekend prediction right now. It'll probably break ¥1 billion ($9 million+) for the 3-day. 

Legs will be interesting to watch. June, as I've mentioned, isn't an ideal month. Opening Weekends can be impressive, but legs are generally weak due to no holiday boosts until mid-July, but mid-July through mid-August are always very, very crowded, so June holdovers typically suffer harsh screen/showtime cuts. 

It shouldn't be as leggy as Alice in Wonderland, Beauty and the Beast, Cinderella, or Maleficent I don't think simply due to the June release date. All four of those films were released a week or two before major holidays. If I had to make a very, very early prediction, assuming it does around ¥750/800 million this weekend, I'd predict around a ¥7/7.5 billion ($65-70 million) finish.

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Corpse

 

¥260/270 million ($2.4/2.5 million) looks good for Friday. Internal multipliers vary greatly in the market, depending on the genre and the demographics, so it can be difficult to project weekend numbers just based on Friday. That said, ¥750/800 million (~$7-7.5 million) sounds like a good weekend prediction right now. It'll probably break ¥1 billion ($9 million+) for the 3-day. 

Legs will be interesting to watch. June, as I've mentioned, isn't an ideal month. Opening Weekends can be impressive, but legs are generally weak due to no holiday boosts until mid-July, but mid-July through mid-August are always very, very crowded, so June holdovers typically suffer harsh screen/showtime cuts. 

It shouldn't be as leggy as Alice in Wonderland, Beauty and the Beast, Cinderella, or Maleficent I don't think simply due to the June release date. All four of those films were released a week or two before major holidays. If I had to make a very, very early prediction, assuming it does around ¥750/800 million this weekend, I'd predict around a ¥7/7.5 billion ($65-70 million) finish.

i was about to post it .... So better opening than KOTM .. weekend too ... But his life time Prediction is astonishing  $65 M To $70 M ..  😮 serious Numbers 

[cannastop]

Corpse

 

Highest Pre-Sales (2015-) [80,000+]
138,795 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
134,399 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
126,032 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
117,302 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
116,563 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
114,570 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
113,434 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
106,945 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
x94,641 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
x93,216 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
x92,166 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
x85,557 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
x84,025 - Aladdin (2019)

Compared To Their Opening Weekend Admissions:
1,144,539 (x10.70) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
1,012,000 (x8.92) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
987,568 (x8.42) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
974,577 (x8.36) - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
933,781 (x9.87) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016) 
833,190 (x9.74) - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
820,830 (x7.16) - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
800,258 (x5.77) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
771,516 (x5.74) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
737,467 (x5.85) - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
729,114 (x7.82) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
628,000 (x6.81) - Avengers: Endgame (2019)

Note: Pre-sales aren't a truly reliable method of projecting a films' opening weekend, unless it's a comparison between films from the same franchise or a very similar genre. 

Very good pre-sales for Aladdin. I believe Beauty and the Beast will be the best comparison, but I also don't believe that's an ideal comparison. We'll see come Monday. Either way, these pre-sales should lock up a debut above 600,000, and it will probably reach 650,000-700,000 (it should have a higher multiplier than Endgame). ¥800 million ($7/7.5 million) is also likely to be exceeded, and it may approach ¥900 million ($8 million+) over the weekend frame.

As with the case of every big opener, I'll be tracking it regularly throughout the weekend with hourly (mostly) admission updates.

 

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322&sid=4e665f816a80c58fc8a8e35b16755640&start=11725

[KP1025]

Looking at general reception in East Asia, I imagine legs will be fantastic for Aladdin in Japan. $80 million seems likely with that kind of opening. 

[Sunny Max]

7 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Looking at general reception in East Asia, I imagine legs will be fantastic for Aladdin in Japan. $80 million seems likely with that kind of opening. 

Minimum $70 M on cards for Aladdin in Japan .. strong debut