JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Sunny Max]

8 hours ago, a2k said:

3x this weekend more will give it $26-27.

more than that seems tough. 4x more gives $28-29...probably the highest it can go.

movie sustaining on weekend very well .... clearly showing the legs ... so $25 M plus is possible ..

[a2k]

30 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

movie sustaining on weekend very well .... clearly showing the legs ... so $25 M plus is possible ..

still dropped 44%. not sure if it's that good a hold looking at other movies in the chart.

$25+ is locked imo, only $4.5 away after a weekend close to $2.

Edited June 18, 2019 by a2k

[Sunny Max]

20 minutes ago, a2k said:

still dropped 44%. not sure if it's that good a hold looking at other movies in the chart.

$25+ is locked imo, only $4.5 away after a weekend close to $2.

weekdays drop is been big ... weekend did fine ...  cant say much about life time ... 

[KP1025]

Phenomenal drop for Aladdin. Basically flat from its already huge OW. Although it won't have the Golden Week boost that BatB had in its second week, I think Aladdin can hold better on the following weekends as it won't have burned through as much demand.

[Sunny Max]

Aladdin is been unstoppable in Japan ...

 

grosses approx $7.1 M from monday to Friday this week .. its local box office cume is an estimated $40.2 M ...  

 

 

[KP1025]

Corpse:

 

Weekend Forecast (06/22-23)
01 (01) ¥932,000,000 ($8.7 million), -15%, ¥5,350,000,000 ($49.5 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK3
02 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Fable (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) NEW
04 (02) ¥162,000,000 ($1.5 million), -41%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.6 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK2
05 (03) ¥137,000,000 ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥2,475,000,000 ($23.0 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4
06 (04) ¥108,000,000 ($1.0 millon), -40%, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK2
07 (06) ¥x88,000,000 ($820,000), -39%, ¥2,680,000,000 ($24.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK6
08 (08) ¥x68,000,000 ($635,000), +20%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.8 million), Promare (Toho) WK5
09 (07) ¥x61,000,000 ($570,000), -40%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK2
10 (05) ¥x58,000,000 ($540,000), -60%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Girls und Panzer: Finale - Chapter 2 (Showgate) WK2

Notable Films Below Top 10:
¥x35,000,000 ($325,000), -34%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.0 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK10
¥x30,000,000 ($280,000), -23%, ¥6,045,000,000 ($54.7 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK9
¥x28,000,000 ($260,000), -28%, ¥9,030,000,000 ($82.5 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK11
¥x27,000,000 ($250,000), -42%, ¥2,925,000,000 ($26.8 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK8

>Aladdin will, once again, effortlessly stay atop the box-office. Expect this kind of dominance until mid-July. Its pre-sales for the weekend suggests it could see another sub-10% weekend hold, but third weekend holds are generally worse than second weekends for soon-to-be-uber-blockbusters like this, so I'm going a little higher. We'll see though, it could pull off another single-digit hold. ¥10 billion ($90 million+) is probably locked up now, I believe.

>The Fable will have the standard so-so debut for this time of year. Nothing exciting, just a decent enough opening and likely finish.

>X-Men: Dark Phoenix will bomb/disappoint like the other three films with the younger cast.  X-Men: Days of Future Past was the only one among them to gross over ¥1 billion ($10 million) and come somewhat close to reaching the "success" of the original three films. That said, I actually have Dark Phoenix opening on par, maybe even slightly higher than X-Men: Apocalypse, so I guess there's that accomplishment if it does happen considering its performance elsewhere.  

>And lastly, be weary of the forecast for the many limited/near-limited released anime films occupying the Top 10 right now. As I've said, they're very hard to predict (I need to edit Uta no Prince-sama's opening from last week still) for many, many reasons and can sometimes plummet or increase over any given weekend. It looks like all of them will see sharp declines this weekend, aside from Promare (which looks to increase), but you never know. My predictions are simply based on weekday performance and weekend pre-sales. 

 

 

Aladdin is likely to cross $100 million at this rate. 

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Aladdin is likely to cross $100 million at this rate

What a wonderful market where you can say this with a straight face about a sub 9M weekend that lands a movie below 50M

[Legion Again]

It would be really nifty to see the 3rd weekend top 1B, but 900s is great too.

[druv10]

15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What a wonderful market where you can say this with a straight face about a sub 9M weekend that lands a movie below 50M

Yep, plus look at the bottom with EG over 6B Yen, now. In the same ball park as the SM1-3 Trilogy, phenomenal performance!

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It would be really nifty to see the 3rd weekend top 1B, but 900s is great too.

For comparison, BatB's 3rd weekend was ¥893,126,000 (-20%) followed by a 4th weekend of ¥575,283,300 (-35%). BatB will be about ¥1.35 billion ahead after this weekend because of the Golden Week boost, but Aladdin should start to make up the difference on the weekends going forward. 

[druv10]

Fastest to ¥5 billion (Blockbuster Milestone) - 24 Days or Less:

10 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
11 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
12 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 - Spirited Away (2001)
13 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
14 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 - Your Name. (2016)
14 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
14 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
15 - Jurassic World (2015)
15 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
15 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
15 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
16 - Ponyo (2008)
16 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
16 - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
16 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
16/17 - Aladdin (2017) *Awaiting Weekend Actual*
17 - Code Blue (2018)
17 - Frozen (2014)
17 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
17 - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
18 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
18 - Rookies (2009)
18 - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
18 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
20 - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
21 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
21 - The Wind Rises (2013)
21 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21 - Hero (2007)
22 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
22 - Avatar (2009)
22 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
22 - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
23 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
23 - Arrietty (2010)
24 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 - The Last Samurai (2003)

Note: Not enough data for films released before 2000 to be included on this list, primarily including: Titanic, Princess Mononoke, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, Armageddon, Jurassic Park, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and Antarctica -- all of which likely exceeded ¥5 billion before 24 days (4 weeks) in release

[Jiffy]

Golden Week sure stoked BATB's weekdays for its 3rd weekend total to be $10m higher than what Corpse is predicting for Aladdin despite a lower weekend gross. 

[jj99]

7PM SAT Update for Aladdin

 

3rd SAT: 184,308

2nd SAT: 203,190

1st SAT:  207,078

 

Just a 9% drop Week/Week so far for today. 

 

 

FINAL SAT NUMBERS:

 

2nd SAT: 256,171

1st SAT: 271,313 

Edited June 22, 2019 by jj99

[jj99]

4 hours ago, jj99 said:

7PM SAT Update for Aladdin

 

3rd SAT: 184,308

2nd SAT: 203,190

1st SAT:  207,078

 

Just a 9% drop Week/Week so far for today. 

 

 

FINAL SAT NUMBERS:

 

2nd SAT: 256,171

1st SAT: 271,313 

Final Sat Number: 228,862

 

slightly over 10% drop. Excellent.

[Sunny Max]

58 minutes ago, jj99 said:

Final Sat Number: 228,862

 

slightly over 10% drop. Excellent.

Excellent hold ... 

[jj99]

SUNDAY 8:49PM UPDATE:

 

3rd SUNDAY: 249.874

 

FINAL SUNDAY

 

2nd SUNDAY: 273,661 

1st SUNDAY: 287,736

 

Will probably get up to 255,000 max for the day. 

 

Looking at 7-8% drop at most from last week, another excellent hold.

[catlover]

Aladdin's final number for Sun: 253,822

Aladdin's Sat-Sun: 482,740 (-8.9%)

 

If it drops only 8.8% for the 2-day weekend, it will stay above ¥1B for a 3rd week in a row. Looks like it's gonna be reeeaaally close.

Edited June 23, 2019 by catlover

[UserHN]

13 minutes ago, catlover said:

Aladdin's final number for Sun: 253,822

Aladdin's Sat-Sun: 482,740 (-8.9%)

 

If it drops only 8.8% for the 2-day weekend, it will stay above ¥1B for a 3rd week in a row. Looks like it's gonna be reeeaaally close.

Do you think it could gross $100M+? We need Japan + Korea super overperformance to have a chance at a billie.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Do you think it could gross $100M+? We need Japan + Korea super overperformance to have a chance at a billie.

ah, the movie already has a chance to make 1 bill, especially with dom kicking butt

[catlover]

15 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Do you think it could gross $100M+? We need Japan + Korea super overperformance to have a chance at a billie.

I think it could. It's at $50.7m now with about $9m 3rd weekend. So it was $41.7m as of Friday. Let's say it has 7x multiplier from its 3rd weekend, which is just "normal". Then it will make $63m after Friday, which means a total of $104.7m. And this is not even an optimistic prediction.

Edited June 23, 2019 by catlover