JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[KP1025]

36 minutes ago, MeowwoeM said:

Oh k. Is it reasonable to believe this will pass Toy Story 3's total in dollars?

Very unlikely. That would require a gross of nearly ¥13.7 billion using current exchange rates. Even passing Toy Story 3's ¥10.8 billion is not locked at the moment.

[ThomasNicole]

I’ll be completely happy with $ 90-100M since is probably enough for the movie cross the billion.

[XXR vs XXR]

Frozen 2 Question

I know Frozen was a cultural phenomenon in Japan (almost $250m) and while we can't really predict a total yet because that relies a lot on reception and WOM, we can estimate an opening.

Can Frozen 2 break the 3-day record in Japan? I believe it's currently around $18.8 million. What is the hype like for it right now? 

 

[CoolK]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’ll be completely happy with $ 90-100M since is probably enough for the movie cross the billion.

i can live with that 

[CalifoBoy]

$110 M for Aladdin and $90 M for TS4 would make my year!

[Sunny Max]

Toy Story 4 At Japanese box office 

 

Friday :- $2.8 M

 

Saturday :- $5.3 M ...   😮  

 

eyeing a $10 To $11 M 2 day OW ...

[Sunny Max]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Can Frozen 2 break the 3-day record in Japan? I believe it's currently around $18.8 million. What is the hype like for it right now? 

 

Yes .. SW III : Revenge Of The Sith holds the all time OW record ($18.975 M) 

 

Frozen 2 might come close to this OW record ... but need proper release & promotion ..

[Olive]

Sunday  will be huge for TS4

[titanic2187]

22 minutes ago, Olive said:

Sunday  will be huge for TS4

With monday a national holidday, I think 2 days 10b yen is quite a done deal.

 

Also, compared to TS3 in 2010, TS4 certainly has stronger competition. TS3 only need to deal with a Ghibli10b yen's Arrietty and inception. But TS4 will have WiY (I see it can be bigger than Arrietty), and one piece, with Aladdin is still strong on steroids. Don't forget there are still TLK and SLOP2 there to grab families      

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

With monday a national holidday, I think 2 days 10b yen is quite a done deal.

 

Also, compared to TS3 in 2010, TS4 certainly has stronger competition. TS3 only need to deal with a Ghibli10b yen's Arrietty and inception. But TS4 will have WiY (I see it can be bigger than Arrietty), and one piece, with Aladdin is still strong on steroids. Don't forget there are still TLK and SLOP2 there to grab families      

Luckily Japan isn't as brutal as most other countries in the world when it comes to competions. But hey maybe japan is thinking very movie gets the full money this year 😛

[expensiveho]

So really good for TS4? It's getting a nice increase in admissions, stable in lc (TS3 being inflated by 3D) and a decrease in $ (thanks to ER)

 

Unless it collapses it'll have a decent drop overall, which was the best-case scenario. 1B WW is still in play. 

[KP1025]

Depending on how hard Disney wants to push Lion King, the biggest issue for TS4 is screen loss. Aladdin is having its biggest drop yet because Disney likes to have the widest release possible for movies they anticipate to be big in Japan.  That usually comes at the expense of their own holdovers, from which they take the screens. This happened to Moana when Beauty and the Beast opened, which in return then suffered big screen loss when Pirates 5 opened,.

Edited July 13, 2019 by KP1025

[Olive]

TS3 OW was 977M yen, 82% from 3D showings.

[Geo1500]

19 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Corpse:

 

Weekend Forecast (07/13-14)
01 (---) ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.2 million), 0, ¥1,300,000,000 ($12.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) NEW
02 (---) ¥525,000,000 ($4.8 million), 0, ¥615,000,000 ($5.7 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) NEW
03 (01) ¥489,000,000 ($4.5 million), -30%, ¥9,525,000,000 ($87.8 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK6
04 (02) ¥228,000,000 ($2.1 million), -42%, ¥2,350,000,000 ($21.7 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK3
05 (03) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -32%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.6 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK2
06 (04) ¥x82,000,000 ($755,000), -40%, ¥1,440,000,000 ($13.3 million), The Fable (Toho) WK4
07 (05) ¥x65,000,000 ($600,000), -20%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.5 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK6
08 (06) ¥x52,000,000 ($480,000), -31%, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) WK3
09 (08) ¥x36,000,000 ($330,000), -25%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), The Journalist (Star Sands) WK3
10 (12) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -15%, ¥425,000,000 ($4.0 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK5

>Toy Story 4 debuts this weekend, and it's looking to make Japanese box-office history by becoming the first ever imported animated film to open above ¥1 billion. I think it has a better than 50% chance of doing it based on its pre-sales and early morning Saturday ticket sales, but I'm going to leave its weekend forecast right at said milestone just in case it comes in barely shy. And to claim the record for biggest opening weekend for an imported animated film (held by its predecessor, Toy Story 3), it needs to beat ¥977 million. 

And one record that is very likely to be broken is breaking the opening weekend admissions record for an imported animated film (held by Finding Nemo). But, if it's likely to break that record, why won't it open above Toy Story 3 and break ¥1 billion? Because Toy Story 3 opened at the peak of the 3D craze which gave it a huge average ticket sale boost that isn't as prevalent in today's market.  

>Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution looks to debut in second place, and based on pre-sales, might just outopen last year's film, Pokemon: Everyone's Story. I was expecting a slight drop from last year's film, so any debut of a similar figure, or higher obviously, is certainly encouraging for the franchise after reaching a low-point a few years back. This film is the first CGI Pokemon film in the series, and is a remake of the original Pokemon film from 1998.

>Aladdin may slip to third place and have a normal hold for the first time in its run, but it's still doing very, very impressive numbers (some of its day-to-day drops were in the single-digits this week). It'll become the highest-grossing film of 2019 over the weekend and likely be less than ¥500 million away from reaching the ¥10 billion uber-milestone.

 

Aladdin sits at 88.2M in that forecast. 9,525,000,000 Yen translates to $88.2M not 87.8 that is $400k difference. (It must have been some sort of calculation typo)

 

 

Aladdin has not used legs in japan just yet for the first 5-weeks it was just frontloaded the legs will first come to play next weekend and what comes after that. Japan is a leggy market which is what makes it great market for movies in general. As far as legs go Aladdin could showcase great legs due to being musical film and It has already covered 88.2M and will cross 90M on Monday and would be close to 100M next weekend. The floor is $120M while the roof is $130M

 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Geo1500

[Geo1500]

1 hour ago, expensiveho said:

So really good for TS4? It's getting a nice increase in admissions, stable in lc (TS3 being inflated by 3D) and a decrease in $ (thanks to ER)

 

Unless it collapses it'll have a decent drop overall, which was the best-case scenario. 1B WW is still in play. 

 

TS4 is doing impressive numbers and $100M could happen or even more in it's final run. 1B WW is pretty much in play and the chances are good currently. Animation is one of the favourite genre in Japan. TS4 has also a popular brand in Japan. 

 

I was surprised it topped Mewtwo Evolution and this showcases how beloved TS4 is in Japan

Edited July 13, 2019 by Geo1500

[meriodejaneiro]

4 hours ago, CalifoBoy said:

$110 M for Aladdin and $90 M for TS4 would make my year!

I wonder the chances of Disney getting 4x $100M movies in Japan for a year (Aladdin, TS4, TLK and F2). I also would include TROS, but I think that could be considered a 2020 release since most of its box office might be made on that year. 

 

Is there any precedent for this?

[DisposedData]

5 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I wonder the chances of Disney getting 4x $100M movies in Japan for a year (Aladdin, TS4, TLK and F2). I also would include TROS, but I think that could be considered a 2020 release since most of its box office might be made on that year. 

 

Is there any precedent for this?

I think TLK will screw this dream up. Didn't Corpse make a post a while back saying Aladdin and The Little Mermaid were the biggest renaissance films in Japan, not The Lion King?

[Justin4125]

11 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I wonder the chances of Disney getting 4x $100M movies in Japan for a year (Aladdin, TS4, TLK and F2). I also would include TROS, but I think that could be considered a 2020 release since most of its box office might be made on that year. 

 

Is there any precedent for this?

Highly doubtful for TROS. Not even TFA hit 100m USD and TLJ finished at around 66m. Then of course there was Solo, which though not a fair comparison, certainly makes a case for diminishing returns in Japan for the brand (again, probably a bit unfair though). Phantom Menace seems to have been the peak for SW movies in Japan

I am also a bit skeptical about TLK. OG Aladdin outperformed OG Lion King in Japan, and the Jungle Book (similar in terms of the technology) didnt get far at all in Japan

Edited July 13, 2019 by Justin4125

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think TLK will screw this dream up. Didn't Corpse make a post a while back saying Aladdin and The Little Mermaid were the biggest renaissance films in Japan, not The Lion King?

Aladdin was the biggest, Lion King the second biggest among the Renaissance films. Beauty and the Beast and the Little Mermaid were too low that they didn't even make Top 100 Grossing animated films in Japan.

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Highly doubtful for TROS. Not even TFA hit 100m USD and TLJ finished at around 66m, and then of course Solo, which though not a fair comparison, certainly makes a case for diminishing returns in general for the brand. I think Phantom Menace was peak for SW in Japan 

With current exchange rates, TFA would adjust to $108 million. Not saying TROS will come anywhere close to that, but I think a rise from TLJ is certainly possible.