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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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@Omni any idea how corpse still thinks TS4 will hit $110m? It had a cume of $62.5m till last weekend, $71-72m by this sunday. Maybe 12m next week, that would mean $84m it would need $26m but with I2's legs it doesn't get anywhere close to that.

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23 minutes ago, pepsa said:

@Omni any idea how corpse still thinks TS4 will hit $110m? It had a cume of $62.5m till last weekend, $71-72m by this sunday. Maybe 12m next week, that would mean $84m it would need $26m but with I2's legs it doesn't get anywhere close to that.

According to BOM, TS3 got $30M post-Obon, but that had amazing drops. I think Corpse probably changed prediction. 

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1 hour ago, pepsa said:

@Omni any idea how corpse still thinks TS4 will hit $110m? It had a cume of $62.5m till last weekend, $71-72m by this sunday. Maybe 12m next week, that would mean $84m it would need $26m but with I2's legs it doesn't get anywhere close to that.

If you're comparing Toy Story 4 to Incredibles 2 by the point in their releases, I'm pretty sure Incredibles 2 already went through Obon at this time.

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1 hour ago, cannastop said:

If you're comparing Toy Story 4 to Incredibles 2 by the point in their releases, I'm pretty sure Incredibles 2 already went through Obon at this time.

No at the weekend before the Obon week. 

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On 8/10/2019 at 4:22 PM, pepsa said:

@Omni any idea how corpse still thinks TS4 will hit $110m? It had a cume of $62.5m till last weekend, $71-72m by this sunday. Maybe 12m next week, that would mean $84m it would need $26m but with I2's legs it doesn't get anywhere close to that.

He said 110M would be its ceiling, so his predicted range should be more like 100/110M.

Also, Incredibles 2 opened at 3.8M and finished at 44M, 11x multiplier once you take its pre-OW dailies out of the equation. Corpse is projecting a 10% drop for TS4 this weekend, meaning it should be at 71/72M after a 3.5M weekend. Using I2's multiplier, we get 71.5+3.5x10 = 106.5M.

As long as it really drops very well this weekend, Corpse's projection is very reasonable.

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37 minutes ago, Omni said:

He said 110M would be its ceiling, so his predicted range should be more like 100/110M.

Also, Incredibles 2 opened at 3.8M and finished at 44M, 11x multiplier once you take its pre-OW dailies out of the equation. Corpse is projecting a 10% drop for TS4 this weekend, meaning it should be at 71/72M after a 3.5M weekend. Using I2's multiplier, we get 71.5+3.5x10 = 106.5M.

As long as it really drops very well this weekend, Corpse's projection is very reasonable.

Thats great to hear, I was thinking maybe because it's late in it's run that the amount of screens it still has is a lot lower than I2 when it was released and that the lack at showtimes would bite TS4 in the behind.

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Corpse

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243327#p2243327

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One Piece Film Stampede should win the weekend now unless it experiences a sharp Sunday decline, but that doesn't seem to be the case. It's aiming for an ¥800 million opening weekend, and a ¥1.3 billion 3-day total. Since this was the first One Piece film to open on a Friday, it deflated the Saturday number significantly, but it'll actually help the Sunday from falling much, if at all. It looks like it'll remain roughly flat right now to me based on early morning ticket sales.

The Lion King will have to settle for second place and is aiming for a ¥700 million opening weekend, and ¥1 billion 3-day total. This will be ~35% less than Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, but I wouldn't consider it disappointing -- it was always likely to make less than either of them. Plus, as has been mentioned, legs are probably going to be strong due to opening at the start of Obon Festival. It can easily manage a ¥7/8 billion ($60-70 million) total with this opening weekend projection, and possibly a bit more.

Weathering With You isn't giving its #1 spot up without a fight though. It's aiming for a fourth weekend around ¥650 million with a possible single-digit drop. If it sees a big enough increase on Sunday, and its increase (% wise) will likely be high, it could still fend off both One Piece and The Lion King, albeit a long shot. Either way, it's probably going to regain the #1 spot at some point over the Obon Festival holiday frame.

 

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1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

why don't they count Friday into the OW? shouldn't it be similar to thursday previews in NA or 5 day openings in other countries :thinking: 

 

 

It would mess up historical comparisons.

 

Movies used to be released on Saturdays and that was it. This only changed in 2018.

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7 hours ago, RealLyre said:

why don't they count Friday into the OW? shouldn't it be similar to thursday previews in NA or 5 day openings in other countries :thinking:

What cannastop said (which is a practical reason), plus:

*Friday is a real opening day, and it's not part of the weekend range, so there's no logical reason to include its gross into the OW.

*Thursday previews in NA have become ridiculous at the point they can be hardly considered as previews. Not a good idea to copy a cheater.

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So I guess it's safe to say that both WWY and TS4 have survived One Piece and TLK. It even looks like they are gonna have better drops compared to last week.

 

Also, about One Piece's box office explosion, I also think it's because the quality of the movies increased significantly starting with Strong World. They changed from passable TV movies to much more eventful cinematic ones. Gold did decrease from Z, so we'll see how Stampede will do in the end.

 

As for Detective Conan, I still have no idea how they managed to grow each year and transform from a fan-driven ¥2-3B series, into a ¥9B blockbuster series. Surely, with this year's movie, it has reached its peak, right?

 

Edited by catlover
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10 hours ago, catlover said:

Surely, with this year's movie, it has reached its peak, right?

I have no Conan specific expertise, but I feel like this sort of statement usually ends up getting answered with a no ;) 

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Corpse:

 

Weekend Estimates (08/10-11)
01 (---) ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), 0, ¥1,365,000,000 ($12.9 million), One Piece Film Stampede (Toei) NEW
02 (---) ¥750,000,000 ($7.1 million), 0, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.7 million), The Lion King (Disney) NEW
03 (01) ¥661,000,000 ($6.2 million), -08%, ¥7,480,000,000 ($69.7 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥349,000,000 ($3.3 million), -15%, ¥7,665,000,000 ($71.2 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK5
05 (02) ¥297,000,000 ($2.8 million), -41%, ¥1,445,000,000 ($13.7 million), Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (04) ¥142,000,000 ($1.3 million), -54%, ¥444,504,700 ($4.2 million), Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho) WK2
07 (06) ¥132,000,000 ($1.2 million), -15%, ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) WK3
08 (05) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -27%, ¥1,160,000,000 ($10.9 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) WK3
09 (09) ¥x97,000,000 ($915,000), -15%, ¥2,290,000,000 ($21.2 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK5
10 (07) ¥x89,000,000 ($840,000), -29%, ¥11,620,000,000 ($107.0 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK10

 

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Corpse

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243358#p2243358

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So... based on these estimates, this weekend managed to achieve the second highest aggregated weekend (Top 10 only) on record! Incredibly impressive.

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243359#p2243359

Biggest All-Time Aggregated Weekends (Top 10 Films; 1998-)

01. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005 (#1 Film - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith)
02. ¥3.497 billion - 08/10-11/2019 (#1 Film - One Piece Film Stampede) *Est.*
03. ¥3.485 billion - 08/04-05/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
04. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 (#1 Film - Frozen)
05. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
06. ¥3.379 billion - 08/08-09/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
07. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix) 
08. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006 (#1 Film - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
09. ¥3.297 billion - 08/15-16/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
10. ¥3.212 billion - 07/28-29/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
11. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Alice in Wonderland)
12. ¥3.150 billion - 04/29-30/2017 (#1 Film - Beauty and the Beast)
13. ¥3.133 billion - 08/16-17/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
14. ¥3.106 billion - 12/19-20/2015 (#1 Film - Star Wars: The Force Awakens) 
15. ¥3.100 billion - 07/13-14/2019 (#1 Film - Toy Story 4)
16. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
17. ¥3.046 billion - 12/20-21/2014 (#1 Film - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!)
18. ¥3.026 billion - 08/04-05/2018 (#1 Film - Code Blue)
¥3 billion+

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Corpse

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2243361#p2243361

Biggest Fourth Weekends/Four Week Totals (2000-)

¥1.076 billion, -05%, ¥8.53 billion - Your Name. (2016) 
¥972.2 million, -19%, ¥8.43 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million, -06%, ¥8.45 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥940.0 million, +06%, ¥10.75 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥922.9 million, -21%, ¥8.13 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥879.2 million, -12%, ¥7.22 billion - Aladdin (2019)
¥850.9 million, -04%, ¥7.71 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥765.7 million, +07%, ¥7.20 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥755.2 million, -03%, ¥7.21 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥733.5 million, -27%, ¥7.11 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥683.5 million, -27%, ¥7.45 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥661.0 million, -08%, ¥7.48 billion - Weathering With You (2019) *Est.*
¥657.9 million, -05%, ¥6.23 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥619.6 million, -25%, ¥8.24 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) 
¥618.6 million, -23%, ¥6.02 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million, +15%, ¥5.41 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million, -22%, ¥7.55 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥587.1 million, -05%, ¥7.52 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥575.3 million, -35%, ¥7.94 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017) 
¥565.4 million, -12%, ¥5.96 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million, -34%, ¥5.91 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥551.7 million, -09%, ¥6.22 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥546.1 million, -18%, ¥5.72 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥543.9 million, -07%, ¥5.77 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million, +07%, ¥5.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million, -26%, ¥6.15 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million, -52%, ¥8.38 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million, -01%, ¥3.83 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million, +09%, ¥5.81 billion - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million, -01%, ¥6.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million, -07%, ¥5.60 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million, -20%, ¥5.93 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million, -09%, ¥4.19 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million, -27%, ¥6.26 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
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So if the estimates hold, it will be the 2nd biggest aggregate weekend ever. I hope it stays there with actuals, because that's really amazing! Considering that:

1. The #1 on that list was helped by huge previews for SW3. Excluding that, this past weekend would have been the biggest one ever.

2. If I remember correctly, ticket prices in Japan only increased 1 time in 26 years, and the increase was only ¥100, so inflation is close to none.

 

Also, Obon week has begun, and I'm excited for the box office numbers.

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