JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2244644#p2244644

Weekend Actuals (09/07-08)
01 (---) ¥315,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥462,975,000 ($4.3 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥253,000,000 ($2.4 million), -39%, ¥12,179,801,200 ($113.2 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK8
03 (02) ¥189,000,000 ($1.8 million), -45%, ¥5,915,764,200 ($55.8 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK5
04 (03) ¥161,000,000 ($1.5 million), -38%, ¥1,657,932,000 ($15.5 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK3
05 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) NEW
06 (04) ¥136,000,000 ($1.3 million), -46%, ¥5,040,000,000 ($47.5 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK5
07 (06) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -42%, ¥641,997,500 ($6.0 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK2
08 (05) ¥124,000,000 ($1.2 million), -48%, ¥667,000,000 ($6.3 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK2
09 (07) ¥x77,000,000 ($720,000), -47%, ¥9,816,860,300 ($92.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK9
10 (08) ¥x75,000,000 ($701,000), -42%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million), God's Blessing on This Wonderful World! Crimson Legend (Kadokawa) WK2

NOTE: While the cumulative totals are actuals, most of the weekend grosses themselves remain estimates; only the top 3 films have had their weekend gross reported. I'll update the rest when they come in.

>Kaguya-sama: Love is War, the live-action adaptation of the manga of the same name, debuted atop the weekend box-office, selling a respectable 255,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 291 screens; it sold 361,846 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid opening, and certainly a welcomed one before Silver Week begins next week. Legs should be pretty good, and a total above ¥2 billion ($20 million) is likely.

>Weathering With You falls to second place after reclaiming the #1 spot last weekend. Makato Shinkai's follow-up to Your Name. became the highest-grossing film of 2019 on Sunday, surpassing Disney's Aladdin. The uber-blockbuster sold a further 190,000 admissions in its eighth-weekend of release, and has sold 9,139,915 admissions since its debut. While it performed fairly well in its first full week outside of summer, it didn't display a hold strong enough to suggest it'll go on to have amazing holds for weeks/months to come; rather, it should enjoy solid holds for the remainder of its run, and exit the weekend top 10 sometime in mid/late-October. Where is it headed? Despite its path becoming clearer this weekend, there's another holiday frame coming up soon (Silver Week) that should benefit it pretty well (especially with the special screenings it's receiving at the same time). Its chance of reaching ¥15 billion ($140 million) and entering the all-time top 10 have decreased drastically, but a total around ¥14 billion ($130 million) with ~10.5 million admissions is still realistic and would earn it the twelfth position on the all-time list.

>The Lion King isn't handling the post-summer box-office as well as I would have expected, but it's still doing decent business. In its fifth-weekend of release, Disney's live-action remake sold an additional 131,000 admissions, and has sold 4,152,517 admissions since its debut. This is the first weekly result that changes its trajectory a bit, and it's unfortunately downward a bit. ¥7.5 billion ($70 million) is probably out of reach now, but it can still exceed a very respectable ¥7 billion ($65 million) and possibly hit 5 million admissions.

>One Piece Stampede took an expected hit post-summer, but honestly, it continues to hold better than its more frontloaded predecessors. It seemed likely to crawl to the ¥5 billion milestone, but as you can see, it got there faster than expected, and quite easily, too. There's no question now that it will outgross One Piece Film Gold to become the second biggest film in the franchise. Look for the anime's 20th anniversary celebratory film to come very close to ¥5.5 billion ($51/52 million) and exceed 4 million admissions.

>Toy Story 4 is still handing on, but it took a big blow in the post-summer box-office. It's so close to the ¥10 billion milestone, but it's still probably going to take two more weeks to get there. But as I've said about every week now for a month... despite it being fairly frontloaded and continuing the trend of Pixar's sequel decline, reaching ¥10 billion is always a major achievement. Also, while I have posted it a couple times already, the film has sold MORE tickets than Toy Story 3. After nine weekends in release, the fourth entry in the Toy Story franchise has sold 7,632,931 admissions (vesrus the 7.2 million of Toy Story 3!).

[cannastop]

Japanese box office is going to be pretty uh, boring until Frozen 2 comes along.

[Steven]

8 hours ago, cannastop said:

Japanese box office is going to be pretty uh, boring until Frozen 2 comes along.

I guess Frozen2 can hit $160-180m in Japan

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Forecast (09/14-15)
01 (---) ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), 0, ¥510,000,000 ($4.7 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥223,000,000 ($2.1 million), -12%, ¥12,580,000,000 ($117.0 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK9
03 (01) ¥214,000,000 ($2.0 million), -32%, ¥885,000,000 ($8.2 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK2
04 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥127,000,000 ($1.2 million), -33%, ¥6,175,000,000 ($58.3 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥123,000,000 ($1.1 million), -23%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($18.2 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK4
07 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) NEW
08 (07) ¥x89,000,000 ($820,000), -29%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK3
09 (05) ¥x85,000,000 ($790,000), -40%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.2 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK2
10 (06) ¥x79,000,000 ($730,000), -39%, ¥5,205,000,000 ($49.0 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK6
11 (08) ¥x75,000,000 ($695,000), -35%, ¥855,000,000 ($8.0 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK3
12 (10) ¥x52,000,000 ($480,000), -29%, ¥9,905,000,000 ($92.8 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W10

3-Day Holiday Weekend Forecast (09/14-16)
01 (---) ¥575,000,000 ($5.3 million), 0, ¥685,000,000 ($6.3 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) NEW
02 (02) ¥333,000,000 ($3.1 million), +31%, ¥12,690,000,000 ($118.0 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK9
03 (01) ¥312,000,000 ($2.9 million), -01%, ¥980,000,000 ($9.1 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK2
04 (---) ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($2.8 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥190,000,000 ($1.8 million), +01%, ¥6,240,000,000 ($58.9 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), +09%, ¥2,005,000,000 ($18.7 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK4
07 (---) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥190,000,000 ($1.8 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) NEW
08 (07) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), +02%, ¥890,000,000 ($8.3 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK3
09 (05) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), -16%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.5 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK2
10 (06) ¥113,000,000 ($1.0 million), -14%, ¥5,240,000,000 ($49.3 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK6
11 (08) ¥105,000,000 ($970,000), -09%, ¥885,000,000 ($8.3 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK3
12 (10) ¥x77,000,000 ($710,000), +04%, ¥9,930,000,000 ($93.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W10

Monday is a national holiday, Keiro no Hi (Respect of the Aged Day). As a result of the holiday Monday, weekend actuals won't be released until Tuesday next week.

Hit Me Anyone One More Time is the latest comedy from renowned director Koki Mitani (The Wow-Choten Hotel, Once in a Blue Moon, The Kiyosu Conference), and will easily debut atop the box-office with a satisfactory debut. Besides his previous film, Galaxy Turnpike, most of his films open around the ¥500 million mark, making him one of the more reliably consistent, and successful, directors in the market.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Tower said:

No Longer Human 

Hey I heard of that before.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Longer_Human

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2244964#p2244964

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Estimates (09/14-15)
01 (---) ¥450,000,000 ($4.2 million), 0, ¥560,000,000 ($5.2 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), -22%, ¥915,000,000 ($8.5 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK2
03 (02) ¥218,000,000 ($2.0 million), -14%, ¥12,575,000,000 ($116.9 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK9
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥6,180,000,000 ($58.3 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥1,955,000,000 ($18.3 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK4
07 (05) ¥x92,000,000 ($850,000), -34%, ¥455,000,000 ($4.3 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK2
08 (06) ¥x91,000,000 ($840,000), -30%, ¥5,215,000,000 ($49.1 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK6
09 (07) ¥x90,000,000 ($830,000), -28%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK3
10 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) NEW
11 (08) ¥x70,000,000 ($645,000), -39%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK3
12 (09) ¥x58,000,000 ($535,000), -30%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.3 million), God's Blessing on This Wonderful World! Crimson Legend (Kadokawa) WK2
13 (10) ¥x46,000,000 ($425,000), -38%, ¥9,900,000,000 ($92.7 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W10

>Hit Me Anyone One More Time performed quite well, and is a return to form for director Koki Mitani. It has a good chance of exceeding the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone, which would be a great way to kick off the Fall box-office season.

>Kaguya-sama: Love is War held great in its sophomore frame, and this result makes reaching the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) very attainable now.

>Weathering With You also enjoyed a great hold, one that it very much needed to keep the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone on the table, although it's lingering on the edge still. If anything, it's very likely to outgross The Last Samurai (¥13.7 billion) now and secure the 12th position on the All-Time List.

>No Longer Human performed a bit below expectations.

>All the films ranked 7th-10th are very close. They're all likely within 10,000-15,000 admissions of each other, so they're really too close to call which film ranked where, especially the debuting A Dog's Journey since we can't reference its average ticket price yet (but I doubt it's very high, especially compare to the others, so I'm expecting it to come in 10th in revenue).

>Toy Story 4 likely fell out of the Top 12, but I'll continue to include it in the weekend forecasts/estimates/actuals until it reaches ¥10 billion.

NOTE: Remember, Monday is a national holiday, so Weekend Actuals will be delayed until Tuesday evening. I'll post Monday estimates (for a 3-day weekend) tomorrow. Holiday Monday's typically average 40% or so of the weekend's gross, with films targeting families/children/teens sometimes coming in closer to 50%.

[cannastop]

Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire made $23 million in China this weekend! I shouldn't be surprised, but I kind of am. Other Japanese movies have done well in China before, of course.

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Estimates (09/14-15)
01 (---) ¥450,000,000 ($4.2 million), 0, ¥560,000,000 ($5.2 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), -22%, ¥915,000,000 ($8.5 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK2
03 (02) ¥218,000,000 ($2.0 million), -14%, ¥12,575,000,000 ($116.9 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK9
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥131,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥6,180,000,000 ($58.3 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), -22%, ¥1,955,000,000 ($18.3 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK4
07 (05) ¥x92,000,000 ($850,000), -34%, ¥455,000,000 ($4.3 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK2
08 (06) ¥x91,000,000 ($840,000), -30%, ¥5,215,000,000 ($49.1 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK6
09 (07) ¥x90,000,000 ($830,000), -28%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK3
10 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) NEW
11 (08) ¥x70,000,000 ($645,000), -39%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.0 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK3
12 (09) ¥x58,000,000 ($535,000), -30%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.3 million), God's Blessing on This Wonderful World! Crimson Legend (Kadokawa) WK3
13 (10) ¥x46,000,000 ($425,000), -38%, ¥9,900,000,000 ($92.7 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W10

Holiday Monday Estimates (09/16): Respect for the Elderly Day
¥240,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥800,000,000 ($7.4 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) Day 04
¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), +162%, ¥1,090,000,000 ($10.1 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) Day 11
¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), +186%, ¥12,715,000,000 ($118.2 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 60
¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), 0, ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) Day 04
¥x80,000,000 ($740,000), +146%, ¥6,260,000,000 ($59.0 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 39
¥x55,000,000 ($505,000), +74%, ¥2,010,000,000 ($18.8 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) Day 25
¥x50,000,000 ($460,000), +129%, ¥5,265,000,000 ($49.6 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) Day 39
¥x50,000,000 ($460,000), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) Day 04
¥x45,000,000 ($415,000), +72%, ¥895,000,000 ($8.4 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) Day 18
¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), +74%, ¥890,000,000 ($8.4 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) Day 18
¥x35,000,000 ($325,000), +199%, ¥9,935,000,000 ($93.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 67
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +26%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.6 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) Day 11
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +74%, ¥480,000,000 ($4.5 million), God's Blessing on This Wonderful World! Crimson Legend (Kadokawa) Day 18

Very, very strong Monday. Even though it was a national holiday, it was a bit stronger than the typical holiday Monday.

[cannastop]

Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322&sid=f47a17bf02a46314239b6bd5adcc7ad6&start=12225

 

2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥12.72 billion ($118.3 million) / 9.56 million [60] - Weathering With You (Toho)
¥12.13 billion ($111.7 million) / 8.54 million [102] - Aladdin (Disney)
¥10 billion ↨
¥9.94 billion ($93.0 million) / 7.73 million [67] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)
¥9.31 billion ($85.0 million) / 7.22 million [158] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.57 billion ($58.7 million) / 4.92 million [F] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥6.27 billion ($59.1 million) / 4.41 million [39] - The Lion King (Disney)
¥6.11 billion ($55.3 million) / 4.15 million [F] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥5.69 billion ($51.4 million) / 4.27 million [F] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥5.28 billion ($49.7 million) / 3.97 million [39] - One Piece Stampede (Toei)
¥5.02 billion ($45.6 million) / 4.37 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.64 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥4.00 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.07 million [F] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.86 billion ($35.0 million) / 3.10 million [F] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.75 billion ($33.9 million) / 2.90 million [F] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥3.03 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.09 million [E] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony)
¥3.01 billion ($28.3 million) / 2.10 million [46] - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.97 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.09 million [F] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.93 billion ($26.9 million) / 2.22 million [F] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥2.88 billion ($27.0 million) / 2.38 million [67] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho)
¥2.79 billion ($25.8 million) / 1.92 million [E] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
¥2.16 billion ($19.5 million) / 1.73 million [F] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.12 billion ($19.9 million) / 1.78 million [53] - The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa)
¥2.12 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.68 million [F] - Green Book (Gaga)
¥2.05 billion ($18.6 million) / 1.75 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.02 billion ($18.9 million) / 1.50 million [25] - Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.89 billion ($17.8 million) / 1.48 million [53] - The Great War of Archimedes (Toho)
¥1.75 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.31 million [F] - The Fable (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.57 billion ($14.6 million) / 1.01 million [E] - Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million) / 1.10 million [F] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.39 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.02 million [E] - Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.3 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.22 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.89 million [E] - The Diner (Warner Bros.)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.2 million) / 0.89 million [11] - Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho)
¥1.11 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Promare (Toho)
¥1.11 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.07 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer (Toei)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

[titanic2187]

Weekend Actuals (09/14-15/16)
01 (---) ¥458,000,000 ($4.2 million), 0, ¥819,254,000 ($7.6 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥241,997,600 ($2.2 million), -23%, ¥1,105,653,400 ($10.2 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK2
03 (02) ¥212,489,400 ($2.0 million), -16%, ¥12,723,036,300 ($118.3 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK9
04 (---) ¥169,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥325,703,200 ($3.0 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥128,588,100 ($1.2 million), -32%, ¥6,272,938,600 ($59.1 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥121,068,800 ($1.1 million), -24%, ¥2,022,086,200 ($18.9 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK4
07 (05) ¥100,320,100 ($927,000), -29%, ¥496,000,000 ($4.6 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK2
08 (06) ¥x90,443,700 ($836,000), -31%, ¥5,281,502,300 ($49.7 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK6
09 (07) ¥x88,646,600 ($819,000), -29%, ¥902,701,700 ($8.5 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK3
10 (---) ¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), 0, ¥162,613,100 ($1.5 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) NEW
11 (08) ¥x68,872,300 ($637,000), -39%, ¥904,264,100 ($8.5 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK3
12 (09) ¥x56,273,900 ($520,000), -32%, ¥530,601,900 ($4.9 million), God's Blessing on This Wonderful World! Crimson Legend (Kadokawa) WK3
13 (10) ¥x45,913,800 ($424,000), -38%, ¥9,938,394,000 ($93.0 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W10

NOTE: Cumulative Totals are as of MONDAY, 09/16.

>Hit Me Anyone One More Time performed very well over its opening weekend, selling an impressive 357,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 352 screens; and selling 645,630 admissions over the long 4-day holiday weekend. This is a great result to begin the Fall box-office season, and a welcomed return to form for director Koki Mitani. A total between ¥3.0-3.5 billion ($30 million+) is likely.

>Kaguya-sama: Love is War held great in its sophomore frame, selling a further 202,000 admissions, bringing its eleven day cumulative admissions up to 895,620. While it's early, and things could change, the film is performing very well over both the weekdays and weekend, which would suggest a long run ahead. It will easily exceed the ¥2 billion ($20 million) milestone, and could climb as high as ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) at its current pace.

>Weathering With You also enjoyed a great hold, one that it very much needed to keep the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone on the table, although it's lingering on the edge still. Makoto Shinkai's latest sold an additional 162,000 admissions over its ninth weekend, bringing its cumulative admissions up to an incredible 9,559,191. Even if it would fall short of the ¥15 billion milestone, it's very likely to outgross The Last Samurai to reach the 12th position on the all-time chart.

>No Longer Human performed a bit below expectations, selling 123,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 383 screens; and selling 240,980 admissions over the long 4-day holiday weekend. This isn't a bad debut by any means, it's solid enough, it's just slightly disappointing considering how Shochiku and Asmik Ace promoted it. It'll go on to exceed the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone, but again... it should have been aiming for something closer to ¥1.5/¥2.0 billion.

>The Lion King surpassed Avengers: Endgame over its sixth-weekend of release to become Disney's third biggest film of the year in the market, behind Aladdin and Toy Story 4. It has sold 4,411,250 admissions after six weeks in release. The film has slowed down a good deal due to its lagging weekdays post-Summer, and I no longer believe it'll reach the ¥7 billion milestone. It's more likely to finish around ¥6.8 billion ($64 million).

>One Piece Stampede continues to hold better than its predecessors at this stage of it release, and it outgrossed One Piece Film Gold to become the second highest-grossing (and second most attended) film in the franchise on Sunday. After six weeks in release, the fourteenth entry in the series has sold 3.97 million admissions.

>A Dog's Journey hasn't had its weekend frame actual released yet, but its 4-day cumulative total above was, selling 127,590 admissions over the long 4-day holiday weekend. It also came in seventh place over the weekend frame in admissions, but I'm still betting that it ranked much closer to tenth place in revenue due to its average ticket price (known from the 4-day admissions) being noticeably lower than the three films below it. I'll update its figure when/if it becomes available.

>Toy Story 4 fell outside of the Top 10 in its tenth weekend of release, but it's still doing enough that it'll eventually exceed the ¥10 billion milestone (probably over the last week of this month). After ten weeks in release, the fourth -- and most attended -- entry in the popular Pixar series has sold 7,729,356 admissions.

[XXR vs XXR]

 

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Forecast (09/21-22)
01 (01) ¥298,000,000 ($2.8 million), -35%, ¥1,425,000,000 ($13.2 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), Ad Astra (Fox) NEW
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥190,000,000 ($1.8 million), Hello World (Toho) NEW
04 (02) ¥148,000,000 ($1.4 million), -39%, ¥1,375,000,000 ($12.7 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK3
05 (03) ¥119,000,000 ($1.1 million), -44%, ¥12,945,000,000 ($120.3 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK10
06 (04) ¥108,000,000 ($1.0 million), -36%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) WK2
07 (06) ¥103,000,000 ($955,000), -15%, ¥2,270,000,000 ($21.3 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK5
08 (05) ¥x64,000,000 ($590,000), -50%, ¥6,475,000,000 ($61.0 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK7
09 (07) ¥x63,000,000 ($585,000), -37%, ¥660,000,000 ($6.1 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK3
?? (08) ¥x48,000,000 ($445,000), -47%, ¥5,375,000,000 ($50.5 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK7
?? (09) ¥x46,000,000 ($425,000), -48%, ¥255,000,000 ($2.4 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) WK2
?? (10) ¥x44,000,000 ($405,000), -50%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.3 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK4
?? (11) ¥x36,000,000 ($335,000), -48%, ¥970,000,000 ($9.1 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK4
?? (13) ¥x21,000,000 ($195,000), -55%, ¥9,970,000,000 ($93.3 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W11

*************************************

3-Day Holiday Weekend Forecast (09/21-23): Autumnal Equinox Day
01 (01) ¥444,000,000 ($4.1 million), -03%, ¥1,570,000,000 ($14.5 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.2 million), Ad Astra (Fox) NEW
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million), Hello World (Toho) NEW
04 (02) ¥224,000,000 ($2.1 million), -08%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($13.4 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK3
05 (03) ¥181,000,000 ($1.7 million), -15%, ¥13,010,000,000 ($120.9 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK10
06 (04) ¥162,000,000 ($1.5 million), -09%, ¥675,000,000 ($6.2 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) WK2
07 (06) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), +27%, ¥2,320,000,000 ($21.8 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK5
08 (05) ¥x96,000,000 ($890,000), -25%, ¥6,505,000,000 ($61.3 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK7
09 (07) ¥x92,000,000 ($850,000), -09%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.4 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK3
?? (08) ¥x70,000,000 ($650,000), -23%, ¥5,395,000,000 ($50.7 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK7
?? (09) ¥x68,000,000 ($630,000), -24%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) WK2
?? (10) ¥x65,000,000 ($600,000), -27%, ¥1,020,000,000 ($9.5 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK4
?? (11) ¥x54,000,000 ($500,000), -22%, ¥990,000,000 ($9.3 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK4
?? (13) ¥x33,000,000 ($305,000), -29%, ¥9,980,000,000 ($93.4 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W11

We're entering the second-consecutive three-day holiday weekend this week, with Monday being Autumnal Equinox Day. As a result, this makes predicting the weekend frame a bit more difficult.

>Ad Astra looks to do decently, but may ultimately disappoint a bit. It didn't perform too well on Friday, and its Saturday pre-sales are just so-so. But, since Monday is a holiday, it could certainly be somewhat backloaded and come in a little higher.

>Hello World also doesn't look like it's going to do particularly well based on its Friday performance and Saturday pre-sales, but it could be too early to dismiss it right now as well.

>Ossan's Love: Love or Dead is having stage greetings on Saturday it seems, since its Saturday pre-sales are way up versus last week. This might cause it to have a Sat-to-Sat increase (or remain flat, at least), but it'll probably see larger than usual declines on Sunday and Monday.

And finally, in a tough decision, I'm going to abstain from picking a film for the tenth position in the Weekend Forecast. It's just taking too long to decide. It's a very contested spot this weekend, and is open for a wide number of films to claim (anywhere from five to even seven films). If it was two or three films competing for the spot, I'd decide on one of them, but the spot could go to the debuting Annabelle Comes Home or Blind Witness, or to one of several different holdovers, including: One Piece Stampede, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, A Dog's Journey, and Samurai Shifters.

I'm also going to keep including Toy Story 4 until it reaches the ¥10 billion milestone.

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Estimates (09/21-22)
01 (01) ¥357,000,000 ($3.3 million), -22%, ¥1,485,000,000 ($13.7 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), Ad Astra (Fox) NEW
03 (02) ¥172,000,000 ($1.6 million), -29%, ¥1,400,000,000 ($12.9 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK3
04 (03) ¥144,000,000 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥12,970,000,000 ($120.5 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK10
05 (04) ¥122,000,000 ($1.1 million), -28%, ¥635,000,000 ($5.8 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) WK2
06 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Hello World (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥x90,000,000 ($830,000), -26%, ¥2,260,000,000 ($21.2 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK5
08 (05) ¥x73,000,000 ($675,000), -43%, ¥6,485,000,000 ($61.1 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK7
09 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($555,000), 0, ¥x80,000,000 ($740,000), Annabelle Comes Home (Warner Bros.) NEW
10 (07) ¥x58,000,000 ($535,000), -42%, ¥655,000,000 ($6.1 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK3
11 (---) ¥x55,000,000 ($510,000), 0, ¥x75,000,000 ($695,000), Blind Witness (Gaga) NEW
12 (09) ¥x47,000,000 ($435,000), -47%, ¥255,000,000 ($2.4 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) WK2
13 (08) ¥x43,000,000 ($395,000), -52%, ¥5,370,000,000 ($50.5 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK7
14 (10) ¥x43,000,000 ($395,000), -52%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($9.3 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK4
15 (11) ¥x33,000,000 ($305,000), -52%, ¥970,000,000 ($9.1 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) WK4
16 (13) ¥x29,000,000 ($270,000), -37%, ¥9,980,000,000 ($93.4 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) W11

*************************************

Holiday Monday Estimates (09/23): Autumnal Equinox Day
¥195,000,000 ($1.8 million), -20%, ¥1,680,000,000 ($15.5 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) Day 11
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), -25%, ¥1,525,000,000 ($14.1 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) Day 18
¥100,000,000 ($925,000), -30%, ¥13,070,000,000 ($121.4 million), Weathering With You (Toho) Day 67
¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), 0, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Ad Astra (Fox) Day 04
¥x60,000,000 ($555,000), 0, ¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), Hello World (Toho) Day 04
¥x55,000,000 ($510,000), -32%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.3 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) Day 11
¥x50,000,000 ($460,000), -42%, ¥6,535,000,000 ($61.6 million), The Lion King (Disney) Day 46
¥x35,000,000 ($325,000), -39%, ¥2,295,000,000 ($21.5 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) Day 32
¥x35,000,000 ($325,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), Annabelle Comes Home (Warner Bros.) Day 04
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($970,000), Blind Witness (Gaga) Day 04
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -45%, ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -50%, ¥5,395,000,000 ($50.7 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) Day 46
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -34%, ¥10,000,000,000 ($93.6 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) Day 74
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -50%, ¥1,020,000,000 ($9.5 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) Day 25
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -38%, ¥675,000,000 ($6.3 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) Day 18
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -52%, ¥990,000,000 ($9.3 million), Samurai Shifters (Shochiku) Day 25

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝

Weekend Actuals (09/21-22, 23)
01 (01) ¥369,321,700 ($3.4 million), -19%, ¥1,757,776,600 ($16.2 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥174,730,000 ($1.6 million), -28%, ¥1,522,553,800 ($14.1 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥173,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥303,199,100 ($2.8 million), Ad Astra (Fox) NEW
04 (03) ¥149,914,300 ($1.4 million), -29%, ¥13,073,706,100 ($121.5 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK10
05 (04) ¥123,456,900 ($1.1 million), -27%, ¥714,000,000 ($6.6 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) WK2
06 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥211,921,600 ($1.9 million), Hello World (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥x92,546,100 ($860,000), -24%, ¥2,246,155,400 ($21.1 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK5
08 (05) ¥x77,809,600 ($723,000), -40%, ¥6,462,992,200 ($60.9 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK7
09 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($605,000), 0, ¥135,795,100 ($1.3 million), Annabelle Comes Home (Warner Bros.) NEW
10 (07) ¥x55,669,700 ($517,000), -46%, ¥661,000,000 ($6.1 million), Violet Evergarden: Eternity and the Auto Memories Doll (Shochiku) WK3
11 (---) ¥x55,000,000 ($510,000), 0, ¥x75,607,300 ($700,000), Blind Witness (Gaga) NEW
12 (09) ¥x49,271,100 ($457,000), -45%, ¥293,118,400 ($2.7 million), A Dog's Journey (Toho-Towa) WK2
13 (08) ¥x47,712,700 ($443,000), -47%, ¥5,401,145,700 ($50.8 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK7
14 (10) ¥x46,356,900 ($431,000), -52%, ¥1,024,602,600 ($9.6 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK4

NOTE: Cumulative Totals are updated through Monday, September 23rd, due to the holiday.

>Hit Me Anyone One More Time holds strong atop the weekend box-office in its second weekend, delivering a great hold, selling a further 280,000 admissions; its eleven-day admissions reached 1,379,662. Director Koki Mitani's latest is performing very well so far, and with a fairly open upcoming release schedule, should continue to post great holds for a while. It's aiming for a total above ¥3 billion (~$30 million).

>Kaguya-sama: Love is War continues its somewhat surprisingly good performance, selling an additional 143,000 admissions in its third weekend of release; it has sold 1,242,290 admissions after eighteen-days in release. Expect a finish slightly above the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone.

>Ad Astra struggled in its debut, only coming in third place selling 122,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 386 screens; and selling 218,906 admissions over the long four-day holiday weekend. Brad Pitt is a proven draw in the market, and the reviews were there for this one, but it largely disappointed. In my opinion, it was released too early and was unable to generate much interest with the day-and-date release, which is very common in the market.

>Weathering With You remains steady in fourth place over its tenth-weekend of release, selling 112,000 more admissions over the weekend. Makoto Shinkai's latest has now sold a staggering 9,826,766 admissions after sixty-seven days in release. The film is receiving a 4DX expansion next weekend, and while it was already going to exceed 10 million admissions with little trouble -- becoming just the tenth domestic and eighteenth overall film to ever do so -- it'll get there even faster now. Expect a finish around ¥14 billion ($130 million), enough to earn it the #12 position on the Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time list.

>Hello World disappointed in its debut, failing to break into the Top 5. Its weekend figure above remains an estimate, but its four-day total is accurate. And after its first four days of release, it has sold 155,596 admissions over 255 screens.

>The Lion King continues its unfortunate quick descent, and it's definitely not reaching the ¥7 billion milestone now. It also continues to shred theaters/screens at an alarming rate, so I wouldn't expect much more than ¥6.6/6.7 billion ($63 million). That's still a good, respectable result, but its late legs have left much to be desired.

>The weekend figures for Annabelle Comes Home and Blind Witness remain estimates, but their four-day totals are accurate. After four days in release, the former sold 92,595 admissions, while the latter sold 54,887 admissions.

[RealLyre]

with WWY falling to 14B from Your Name's 25B gross.

 

how much will Frozen 2 decrease? 

[KP1025]

4 hours ago, RealLyre said:

with WWY falling to 14B from Your Name's 25B gross.

 

how much will Frozen 2 decrease? 

 

Corpse says Frozen II being a direct sequel (unlike Your Name to Weathering With You) should help mitigate some of the drop. As for precedents, Chamber of Secrets is the only sequel in Japan to be released after a ¥20 billion predecessor and that dropped only a mere 15% from Sorcerer's Stone. 

[Tower]

(C)2019フジテレビ　東宝 ("Hit Me Anyone One More Time")

Weekend Forecast (09/28-29)
01 (01) ¥269,000,000 ($2.5 million), -27%, ¥2,260,000,000 ($20.8 million), Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho) WK3
02 (04) ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), +02%, ¥13,290,000,000 ($123.5 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK11
03 (02) ¥122,000,000 ($1.1 million), -30%, ¥1,725,000,000 ($15.9 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho) WK4
04 (03) ¥101,000,000 ($935,000), -42%, ¥510,000,000 ($4.7 million), Ad Astra (Fox) WK2
05 (05) ¥x93,000,000 ($860,000), -25%, ¥915,000,000 ($8.5 million), No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace) WK3
06 (06) ¥x75,000,000 ($695,000), -35%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.3 million), Hello World (Toho) WK2
07 (07) ¥x59,000,000 ($550,000), -36%, ¥2,355,000,000 ($22.2 million), Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho) WK6
08 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($465,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($605,000), Ninkyo Gakuen (Avex Pictures) NEW
09 (08) ¥x48,000,000 ($445,000), -38%, ¥6,545,000,000 ($61.7 million), The Lion King (Disney) WK8
10 (09) ¥x47,000,000 ($435,000), -37%, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), Annabelle Comes Home (Warner Bros.) WK2

Other Notable Films:
¥x32,000,000 ($295,000), -32%, ¥1,085,000,000 ($10.2 million), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony) WK5
¥x31,000,000 ($290,000), -36%, ¥5,450,000,000 ($51.3 million), One Piece Stampede (Toei) WK8

Not much going on this weekend, and it'll be the weakest this year since the first weekend of April.

>Ninkyo Gakuen is the only wide release (barely) and will have very little impact on the weekend box-office. I have it debuting in the Top 10, but it's certainly possible it could end up missing it.

>Hit Me Anyone One More Time will achieve a third-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, unopposed. It's going to end up exceeding ¥3 billion (~$30 million) quite easily, and could gross as much as ¥3.5 billion ($32/33 million). This is a strong total for a September/October release.

>Weathering With You is receiving its 4DX expansion in its eleventh-weekend of release, and should remain roughly flat versus last weekend (doubt it sways more than +/- 10%) to rise to second place. It was up almost 10% Friday-to-Friday in admissions, and after factoring in the 4D ticket prices, it perhaps enjoyed a ~15% bump in revenue. I don't believe it'll see quite that high of an increase over the weekend, but don't be surprised if it does see a slight jump (1-5%).

[Cynosure]

A bit of an anecdote but Detective Conan recently became the third anime series to top $1 billion in gross after Doraemon and Pokemon:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_anime_films#Highest-grossing_anime_film_franchises_and_film_series

 

I expect Dragon Ball to join them in a few years. One Piece maybe as well in a very long time. Other series perhaps in the next century. 

[cannastop]

26 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

A bit of an anecdote but Detective Conan recently became the third anime series to top $1 billion in gross after Doraemon and Pokemon:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_anime_films#Highest-grossing_anime_film_franchises_and_film_series

 

I expect Dragon Ball to join them in a few years. One Piece maybe as well in a very long time. Other series perhaps in the next century. 

I dunno, you really think Dragon Ball can make it? It would take quite a few more movies.

[RealLyre]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

I dunno, you really think Dragon Ball can make it? It would take quite a few more movies.

the last one made 123M dollars, and I seem rebooting the series in a "Super" style every few years so eventually it'll get there. 

Edited September 29, 2019 by RealLyre
.