JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[danhtruong5]

How long is the upcoming holiday in Japan?

[PKMLover]

How many holiday days incoming? 

[Cynosure]

Corpse answered that :

 

Frozen II should be at ¥5.8/5.9 billion ($53/54 million) after Sunday. Its third weekend looks headed for a 30% or so decline (right around ¥1 billion), which is fine considering how strong its second weekend was, and expected given last Sunday was a national discount ticket day.

There's not really a "Winter Break/Holiday" in Japan. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day begin what's simply called "New Year Week", where all schools and business are closed from January 1st-3rd (known as the "Bank Holidays"). The last few days (last couple in December) leading up to New Year's Day tend to be a little stronger than normal, but not of holiday strength. Still, the week is one of the three strongest for the box-office in the market. 

For 2020, that means Wednesday-Friday (Jan. 01-03) will be very strong, especially Wednesday, and will probably double or even triple the neighboring weekend grosses. The following weekend (Jan. 04-05) will also be quite strong. January 6th onward will be back to normal.

Edited December 7, 2019 by Cynosure

[edroger3]

On 11/30/2019 at 7:33 PM, edroger3 said:

Sun 24 - Sun 01 -Sun 8

 

Blue (50%-) 88 shows - 54 shows (all the 30 night shows) - 93 shows (all the 24 night shows)

Orange (50%+) 33 shows - 17 shows - 27 shows

Red (80%+) 63 shows - 90 shows - 24 shows

Soldout 0 shows - 23 shows - 0 shows 

 

On 11/30/2019 at 7:33 PM, edroger3 said:

Average saturation (assuming 25%/65%/90%/100%) = 43% - 40 shows lost from last week - could be 250-280k mimorin - 50% adm -35% gross +/-900M Yen weekend

 

[keysersoze123]

its starting around 55% down from last week at Mimiron. Yesterday it started at 32% and ended up at 28%. So I agree with 50% drop in admits at Mimiron by end of the day.

[edroger3]

16 hours ago, edroger3 said:

Average saturation (assuming 25%/65%/90%/100%) = 43% - 40 shows lost from last week - could be 250-280k mimorin - 50% adm -35% gross +/-900M Yen weekend

It seems 292, over my high range. +33% vs Sat

Weekend -42% vs OW (+/-950 MY)

[charlie Jatinder]

Probable Dailies for Frozen 2

 

Day	Date	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		Gross-to-date	Weekend	Weekly
Fri	Nov. 22, 2019	$2,783,000			$2,783,000		$2,783,000
Sat	Nov. 23, 2019	$7,710,000	177.04%		$10,493,000
Sun	Nov. 24, 2019	$7,403,000	-3.98%		$17,896,000	$15,113,000
Mon	Nov. 25, 2019	$2,156,000	-70.88%		$20,052,000
Tue	Nov. 26, 2019	$1,316,000	-38.96%		$21,368,000
Wed	Nov. 27, 2019	$2,121,000	61.17%		$23,489,000
Thu	Nov. 28, 2019	$1,229,000	-42.06%		$24,718,000
Fri	Nov. 29, 2019	$1,595,000	29.78%	-42.69%	$26,313,000		$23,530,000
Sat	Nov. 30, 2019	$5,248,000	229.03%	-31.93%	$31,561,000
Sun	Dec. 1, 2019	$7,934,000	51.18%	7.17%	$39,495,000	$13,182,000
Mon	Dec. 2, 2019	$1,648,000	-79.23%	-23.56%	$41,143,000
Tue	Dec. 3, 2019	$899,000	-45.45%	-31.69%	$42,042,000
Wed	Dec. 4, 2019	$1,462,000	62.63%	-31.07%	$43,504,000
Thu	Dec. 5, 2019	$855,000	-41.52%	-30.43%	$44,359,000
Fri	Dec. 6, 2019	$1,129,000	32.05%	-29.22%	$45,488,000		$19,175,000
Sat	Dec. 7, 2019	$4,090,000	262.27%	-22.07%	$49,578,000
Sun	Dec. 8, 2019	$5,467,000	33.67%	-31.09%	$55,045,000	$9,557,000

Edited December 9, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[keysersoze123]

Monday afternoon looking at another 30% drop from last week. I thought this week holds will be stronger. But let us wait until next saturday to gauge how weekly holds are.

[PKMLover]

People seems to be more busy with work in tha last month of year in Japan? 

[keysersoze123]

^^^^

 

Could be. But there is no christmas break in Japan. Few days off in beginning of the year. But Corpse had said 20B yen (around 184m USD). That requires strong holds. Will need 14x legs from this weekend for that to happen. That is 7% drop on average. Sounds tough with only one week of holiday boost in early January. I am thinking 130m is more likely(around 14B yen). Which is still phenomenal.

[RJ 95]

For this to get >150m, it has to maximize weekdays schoool holiday in late December and early January holidays. It should get at least 125m on 5th January, to get >150m total. While my projection still in 130-140m, school holidays is massive for this movie demographic and it will be decider for final gross. After winter holidays it should be already 80-90% of total gross.

 

Competition is also interesting with SW9 and probably some local animated movie release to compete for demographic and total seats.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Was randomly checking, that if Frozen 2 keep dropping 20% week on week, it will do only $112mn, which is obviously an optimistic drop but gross seemed low. I was like TS4 did huge and didn't had any crazy holds and then I checked that TS4 missed $100mn in Japan and did only $93mn. In my head I thought it did 110mn Approx.

 

TS4 3rd weekend was $5.8mn and total till 3rd weekend was $51mn. It did 7.25x post that weekend, which was also affected by Weathering With You release. Then I checked WWY 3rd weekend to full run multiple, that was around 10.45x.

 

Applying those to Frozen 2, we have a range of $119-149mn.

 

Talk about tracking Japan. 😛

Edited December 9, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Olive]

Weekend

1033m -28.6%  776k adm .

crossed 6B

Edited December 9, 2019 by Olive

[charlie Jatinder]

Realised weekend tracking doesn't make much sense, so doing week wise and that seems like will be a nice comp.

 

Well, see later post for better comp. The one down ain't that useful.

Spoiler

 

	Toy Story 4	Change	Weathering With You	Change	Frozen 2	Change
Week 1	$29,016,238		$27,404,082		$26,313,000
Week 2	$16,190,691	-44.20%	$21,290,291	-22.31%	$19,175,000	-27.13%
Week 3	$13,169,313	-18.66%	$16,290,238	-23.49%	$14,250,000	-25.68%
Week 4	$9,560,226	-27.41%	$20,711,300	27.14%	$10,688,000	-25.00%
Week 5	$11,450,613	19.77%	$12,169,707	-41.24%	$8,016,000	-25.00%
Week 6	$5,733,709	-49.93%	$7,900,311	-35.08%	$10,822,000	35.00%
Week 7	$3,840,854	-33.01%	$5,778,411	-26.86%	$6,493,000	-40.00%
Week 8	$1,791,192	-53.36%	$3,013,736	-47.84%	$4,220,000	-35.01%
Week 9	$1,075,632	-39.95%	$4,750,386	57.62%	$3,165,000	-25.00%
Week 10	$1,505,921	40.00%	$2,627,682	-44.68%	$2,374,000	-24.99%
Rest	$665,611		$5,063,856		$7,122,000
Total	$94,000,000		$127,000,000		$112,638,000

 

 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[charlie Jatinder]

In weekend (s) Frozen 2 is miles ahead TS4 and WWY but in Weeks they are parity. I think $150mn is tough (you never know Japan). Under WWY most likely.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

Weekend

1033m -28.6%  776k adm .

crossed 6B

 

So it managed 3 consecutive weekends above ¥1 billion after all. 👍

[edroger3]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

Weekend

1033m -28.6%  776k adm .

crossed 6B

Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.205 billion, -23%, ¥6.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, -15%, ¥6.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.134 billion, -02%, ¥6.29 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.078 billion, +05%, ¥5.89 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)

¥998.9 million, -21%, ¥5.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥995.9 million, -09%, ¥5.52 billion - Aladdin (2019)

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, RJ 95 said:

For this to get >150m, it has to maximize weekdays schoool holiday in late December and early January holidays. It should get at least 125m on 5th January, to get >150m total. While my projection still in 130-140m, school holidays is massive for this movie demographic and it will be decider for final gross. After winter holidays it should be already 80-90% of total gross.

 

Competition is also interesting with SW9 and probably some local animated movie release to compete for demographic and total seats.

 

 

 

Agreed. Kids have 10 days off in late December, which is comparable to the Spring Break in late March. As far as competition, I don't think there is much overlap with TROS. I believe the Star Wars fanbase tends to skew more male and slightly older. I actually thought the new Lupin III animated film released this weekend would be much bigger competition than it turned out to be. 

[KP1025]

4 hours ago, PKMLover said:

People seems to be more busy with work in tha last month of year in Japan? 

 

December is also exam season for students in Japan, which could also explain why the weekdays have been a bit low. 

[danhtruong5]

29 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Agreed. Kids have 10 days off in late December, which is comparable to the Spring Break in late March. As far as competition, I don't think there is much overlap with TROS. I believe the Star Wars fanbase tends to skew more male and slightly older. I actually thought the new Lupin III animated film released this weekend would be much bigger competition than it turned out to be. 

Kids and students 10 days off?