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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Fantastic beast stayed on top for 3 weeks and dropped only less than 20% in each weeks but took a big hit from Rogue one with 45% drop.

this may happen to F2 as well......I hope you can take it.

Weekend ain't that important, its week that matter. FB 2 had just 21% weekly drop after 45% drop in weekend as weekdays were again strong.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Change
$21,690,794  
$9,737,677 -55.00%
$7,408,780 -24.00%
$5,842,659 -21.00%
$6,182,599 6.00%
$5,468,648 -12.00%
$4,157,468 -24.00%
$1,384,502 -67.00%
Edited by Jedi Jat

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37 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Weekend ain't that important, its week that matter. FB 2 had just 21% weekly drop after 45% drop in weekend as weekdays were again strong.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Change
$21,690,794  
$9,737,677 -55.00%
$7,408,780 -24.00%
$5,842,659 -21.00%
$6,182,599 6.00%
$5,468,648 -12.00%
$4,157,468 -24.00%
$1,384,502 -67.00%

@PKMLover has to be warned for any possible meltdown. I don't want to see any medical condition in BoT

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2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen II

Day Date Gross % +/- YD / LW* Gross-to-date Weekend Weekly
Fri Nov. 22, 2019 $2,783,000     $2,783,000   $2,783,000
Sat Nov. 23, 2019 $7,710,000 177.04%   $10,493,000    
Sun Nov. 24, 2019 $7,403,000 -3.98%   $17,896,000 $15,113,000  
Mon Nov. 25, 2019 $2,156,000 -70.88%   $20,052,000    
Tue Nov. 26, 2019 $1,316,000 -38.96%   $21,368,000    
Wed Nov. 27, 2019 $2,121,000 61.17%   $23,489,000    
Thu Nov. 28, 2019 $1,229,000 -42.06%   $24,718,000    
Fri Nov. 29, 2019 $1,595,000 29.78% -42.69% $26,313,000   $23,530,000
Sat Nov. 30, 2019 $5,248,000 229.03% -31.93% $31,561,000    
Sun Dec. 1, 2019 $7,934,000 51.18% 7.17% $39,495,000 $13,182,000  
Mon Dec. 2, 2019 $1,648,000 -79.23% -23.56% $41,143,000    
Tue Dec. 3, 2019 $899,000 -45.45% -31.69% $42,042,000    
Wed Dec. 4, 2019 $1,462,000 62.63% -31.07% $43,504,000    
Thu Dec. 5, 2019 $855,000 -41.52% -30.43% $44,359,000    
Fri Dec. 6, 2019 $1,129,000 32.05% -29.22% $45,488,000   $19,175,000
Sat Dec. 7, 2019 $4,090,000 262.27% -22.07% $49,578,000    
Sun Dec. 8, 2019 $5,467,000 33.67% -31.09% $55,045,000 $9,557,000  
Mon Dec. 9, 2019 $1,162,000 -78.75% -29.49% $56,207,000    
Tue Dec. 10, 2019 $758,000 -34.77% -15.68% $56,965,000    
Wed Dec. 11, 2019 $1,239,000 63.46% -15.25% $58,204,000    
Thu Dec. 12, 2019 $743,000 -40.03% -13.10% $58,947,000    
Fri Dec. 13, 2019 $906,000 21.94% -19.75% $59,853,000   $14,365,000
Sat Dec. 14, 2019 $3,310,000 265.34% -19.07% $63,163,000    
Sun Dec. 15, 2019 $4,278,000 29.24% -21.75% $67,441,000 $7,588,000  

 

Projection

  Hide contents

 

  Frozen 2 Change Harry Potter 2 Change
Week 1 $26,313,000   $25,946,262  
Week 2 $19,175,000 -27.13% $18,371,922 -29.19%
Week 3 $14,365,000 -25.08% $15,598,670 -15.10%
Week 4 $11,492,000 -20.00% $14,528,146 -6.86%
Week 5 $10,343,000 -10.00% $16,376,000 12.72%
Week 6 $12,412,000 20.00% $17,111,291 4.49%
Week 7 $8,378,000 -32.50% $11,483,624 -32.89%
Week 8 $5,865,000 -30.00% $7,943,136 -30.83%
Week 9 $4,106,000 -29.99% $4,702,327 -40.80%
Week 10 $2,874,000 -30.00% $1,709,868 -63.64%
Rest $9,900,000   $11,228,754  
         
Total $125,223,000   $145,000,000  

 

Why do you try to make projections with Japan ? You can't never know with that country 

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2 hours ago, LPLC said:

Why do you try to make projections with Japan ? You can't never know with that country 

Its what we do here, make projections🤣

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20 minutes ago, Jmcconnor said:

Its what we do here, make projections🤣

But we can't for Japan, maybe Frozen 2 will make only $80M in Japan, maybe it will make $200M ... we can't know if there will be increase or big decrease. Japan is a weird market  

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So was saturday boosted due to Toho discounts. Then the drop this weekend is not great. next weekend will see like 35% drop bcos SW9 will take away large screens. Then it will stabilize but I am sticking with 130m finish. I dont see this holding that well post the new year week.

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1 hour ago, LPLC said:

But we can't for Japan, maybe Frozen 2 will make only $80M in Japan, maybe it will make $200M ... we can't know if there will be increase or big decrease. Japan is a weird market  

*wraps in security blanket*

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3 hours ago, LPLC said:

But we can't for Japan, maybe Frozen 2 will make only $80M in Japan, maybe it will make $200M ... we can't know if there will be increase or big decrease. Japan is a weird market  

Japan is harder to project after OW because of the better legs, but at this point in its run you can make a reasonable projection.

Edited by Tower

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 Corpse: 

Quote

So, I took a few extra days on vacation, but I'm back now. I'll have tons of chart updates tomorrow, including last weekend's actuals. 

And because I know it'll be one of the first things asked, Frozen II played very well in its fourth weekend, dropping under 20% based on estimates. I'll actually go ahead and post the Biggest Third Weekend Chart (thanks R136a1 for sharing the actual with everyone), and the Biggest Fourth Weekend Chart (with the estimate) to give everyone something to check out before tomorrow evening's slew of posts.

Biggest Fourth Weekends/Four Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.076 billion, -05%, ¥8.53 billion - Your Name. (2016) 
¥972.2 million, -19%, ¥8.43 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million, -06%, ¥8.45 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥940.0 million, +06%, ¥10.75 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥922.9 million, -21%, ¥8.13 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥879.2 million, -12%, ¥7.22 billion - Aladdin (2019)
¥850.9 million, -04%, ¥7.71 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥847.0 million, -18%, ¥7.40 billion - Frozen II (2019) *Est.*
¥765.7 million, +07%, ¥7.20 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥755.2 million, -03%, ¥7.21 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥733.5 million, -27%, ¥7.11 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥683.5 million, -27%, ¥7.45 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million, -05%, ¥6.23 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥645.2 million, -17%, ¥7.51 billion - Weathering With You (2019)
¥619.6 million, -25%, ¥8.24 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) 
¥618.6 million, -23%, ¥6.02 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million, +15%, ¥5.41 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million, -22%, ¥7.55 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥587.1 million, -05%, ¥7.52 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥575.3 million, -35%, ¥7.94 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017) 
¥565.4 million, -12%, ¥5.96 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million, -34%, ¥5.91 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥551.7 million, -09%, ¥6.22 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥546.1 million, -18%, ¥5.72 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥543.9 million, -07%, ¥5.77 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million, +07%, ¥5.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million, -26%, ¥6.15 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million, -52%, ¥8.38 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million, -01%, ¥3.83 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million, +09%, ¥5.81 billion - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million, -01%, ¥6.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million, -07%, ¥5.60 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million, -20%, ¥5.93 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million, -09%, ¥4.19 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million, -27%, ¥6.26 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

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3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

started today at 46% off at usual locations!!!! was last monday any holiday or discount day?

I don't think there was any holiday last week, still can reach 35-40% drop from LW or maybe this week is an exam time in there. From friday this week until early January will be interesting to follow because SW9 also will open and surely some local animation also will try to take advantage of those winter holidays.   

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14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

started today at 46% off at usual locations!!!! was last monday any holiday or discount day?

Monday had a normal drop last week from Sunday. It was from Tuesday that things started getting better hold.

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42 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Monday had a normal drop last week from Sunday. It was from Tuesday that things started getting better hold.

That makes it worse in a way. But anyway its early. Probably will get to 35% by end of day as @RJ 95 said.

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17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That makes it worse in a way. But anyway its early. Probably will get to 35% by end of day as @RJ 95 said.

Yeah ofcourse.

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8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Yeah ofcourse.

In your WW projection for Frozen 2, I see $1.474B final. How much is the gross in Japan you included in this? $125M ? 

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6 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

In your WW projection for Frozen 2, I see $1.474B final. How much is the gross in Japan you included in this? $125M ? 

That projection is based on purely % drops. Will try to do one with country totals today.

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It seems that the week from 16th to 22th Dec is a final exam week in Japan.

When someone asked Corpse if this week (16th to 22th Dec) is an exam week in Japan, he said:

 
Yeah, they're this week.

Japan School Year:

1st Term: Beginning of April - Middle of July
Summer Vacation: End of July - End of August
2nd Term: Beginning of September - End of December (before Winter Break including 2 weeks of Chirstmas and New Year holiday).
3rd Term: Second Week of January - End of March

Each term has mid-term exams and final exams, with the exception of the third term which only has final exams since it's the shortest term of the year.

But don't worry about Star Wars of all films hurting Frozen. Star Wars is heavily fan-driven, and will have little impact on anything.
Edited by PKMLover

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1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

It seems that the week from 16th to 22th Dec is a final exam week in Japan.

When someone asked Corpse if this week (16th to 22th Dec) is an exam week in Japan, he said:

 
Yeah, they're this week.

Japan School Year:

1st Term: Beginning of April - Middle of July
Summer Vacation: End of July - End of August
2nd Term: Beginning of September - End of December (before Winter Break including 2 weeks of Chirstmas and New Year holiday).
3rd Term: Second Week of January - End of March

Each term has mid-term exams and final exams, with the exception of the third term which only has final exams since it's the shortest term of the year.

But don't worry about Star Wars of all films hurting Frozen. Star Wars is heavily fan-driven, and will have little impact on anything.

Dont worry. Already its just down 35%. Could end up with "just" 25% drop at this rate. May be just like dom at this point BO is purely driven by walkins.

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15 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen II

 

Day Date Gross % +/- YD / LW* Gross-to-date Weekend Weekly
Fri Nov. 22, 2019 $2,783,000     $2,783,000   $2,783,000
Sat Nov. 23, 2019 $7,710,000 177.04%   $10,493,000    
Sun Nov. 24, 2019 $7,403,000 -3.98%   $17,896,000 $15,113,000  
Mon Nov. 25, 2019 $2,156,000 -70.88%   $20,052,000    
Tue Nov. 26, 2019 $1,316,000 -38.96%   $21,368,000    
Wed Nov. 27, 2019 $2,121,000 61.17%   $23,489,000    
Thu Nov. 28, 2019 $1,229,000 -42.06%   $24,718,000    
Fri Nov. 29, 2019 $1,595,000 29.78% -42.69% $26,313,000   $23,530,000
Sat Nov. 30, 2019 $5,248,000 229.03% -31.93% $31,561,000    
Sun Dec. 1, 2019 $7,934,000 51.18% 7.17% $39,495,000 $13,182,000  
Mon Dec. 2, 2019 $1,648,000 -79.23% -23.56% $41,143,000    
Tue Dec. 3, 2019 $899,000 -45.45% -31.69% $42,042,000    
Wed Dec. 4, 2019 $1,462,000 62.63% -31.07% $43,504,000    
Thu Dec. 5, 2019 $855,000 -41.52% -30.43% $44,359,000    
Fri Dec. 6, 2019 $1,129,000 32.05% -29.22% $45,488,000   $19,175,000
Sat Dec. 7, 2019 $4,090,000 262.27% -22.07% $49,578,000    
Sun Dec. 8, 2019 $5,467,000 33.67% -31.09% $55,045,000 $9,557,000  
Mon Dec. 9, 2019 $1,162,000 -78.75% -29.49% $56,207,000    
Tue Dec. 10, 2019 $758,000 -34.77% -15.68% $56,965,000    
Wed Dec. 11, 2019 $1,239,000 63.46% -15.25% $58,204,000    
Thu Dec. 12, 2019 $743,000 -40.03% -13.10% $58,947,000    
Fri Dec. 13, 2019 $906,000 21.94% -19.75% $59,853,000   $14,365,000
Sat Dec. 14, 2019 $3,310,000 265.34% -19.07% $63,163,000    
Sun Dec. 15, 2019 $4,278,000 29.24% -21.75% $67,441,000 $7,588,000  

 

Projection

  Reveal hidden contents
  Frozen 2 Change Harry Potter 2 Change
Week 1 $26,313,000   $25,946,262  
Week 2 $19,175,000 -27.13% $18,371,922 -29.19%
Week 3 $14,365,000 -25.08% $15,598,670 -15.10%
Week 4 $11,492,000 -20.00% $14,528,146 -6.86%
Week 5 $10,343,000 -10.00% $16,376,000 12.72%
Week 6 $12,412,000 20.00% $17,111,291 4.49%
Week 7 $8,378,000 -32.50% $11,483,624 -32.89%
Week 8 $5,865,000 -30.00% $7,943,136 -30.83%
Week 9 $4,106,000 -29.99% $4,702,327 -40.80%
Week 10 $2,874,000 -30.00% $1,709,868 -63.64%
Rest $9,900,000   $11,228,754  
         
Total $125,223,000   $145,000,000  

 

My prediction for weekly because daily numbers will be impossible and too complicated as there are too many factors. 

 

Week 5 will increase 10-20% rather than dropping 10% at least because next week starting from Monday already school holidays.

Week 6 will increase again 30% because New Year and bank holidays obviously will affect 31th December, 1st and 2nd January.

Week 8 also will dropping only 5-10% or probably stay flat because Coming of Age holiday and 14th day every month discount.

 

It makes 140m total with that scenario but it probably will do better with 20-25% drop for rest of its run. 150m will be reachable. 

 

Edited by RJ 95
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