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Before The Amazing Spider-Man opens,

My Final Predictions/Projections (2012)

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1 Bayside Shakedown The Final Chapter: A New Hope (Toho) ¥8.2 billion ($103 million); 6.1 million admissions

2 Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥7.8 billion ($98 million); 5.8 million admissions

3 Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥6.2 billion ($78 million); 4.9 million admissions

4 Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (KlockWorx) ¥5.2 billion ($65 million); 4.2 million admissions

5 The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥4.5 billion ($56 million); 3.7 million admissions

6 Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) ¥4.2 billion ($52 million); 4.0 million admissions

7 Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥3.6 billion ($45 million); 3.3 million admissions

8 ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) ¥3.5 billion ($44 million); 2.7 million admissions

9 Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) ¥3.3 billion ($42 million); 2.8 million admissions

10 The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥2.8 billion ($35 million); 2.1 million admissions

[iMPORTED FILMS]

1 The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥6.6 billion ($83 million); 4.7 million admissions

2 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) ¥5.5 billion ($71 million); 4.3 million admissions

3 Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) ¥4.5 billion ($56 million); 3.1 million admissions

4 Brave (Disney) ¥4.0 billion ($50 million); 3.0 million admissions

5 Men in Black 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥3.7 billion ($46 million); 2.5 million admissions

6 Total Recall (Sony) ¥3.1 billion ($39 million); 2.3 million admissions

7 Prometheus (FOX) ¥2.5 billion ($32 million); 1.8 million admissions

8 Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥2.3 billion ($30 million); 1.9 million admissions

9 The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros.) ¥2.1 billion ($26 million); 1.7 million admissions

10 Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥2.0 billion ($25 million); 1.7 million admissions

Edited by Corpse
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The Avengers isn't going to be that big. I saw some $40 and even $50 million predictions here and my head spun. Iron Man 2 is the only film in the series that has grossed more than $10 million (and just barely). Captain America, Hulk, Thor, all of them didn't even break $7/8 million, plus The Avengers opens after Summer break AND after Obon Week, also known a really weak weekend. It might do $20/25 million, but unlikely anything more.$26 million for The Dark Knight Rises would be a big improvement over The Dark Knight (about 50% in USD), and the biggest total for a superhero film ever (in USD) outside of the Spider-Man films.

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How do Japanese people stay interested with franchise films for so long? Pokemon and Detective Conan have had so many films already and yet they're still in the yearly top 10. And having seen a few recent Pokemon movies, the quality isn't even that great.

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Avengers was not expected to do well in Germany because IM2 only made $8M there.but in the end TA made nearly 30M there.I hope the same thing happens in Jpan.

We all do.. The dream of 1,5B lives on
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Before The Amazing Spider-Man opens,

My Final Predictions/Projections (2012)

[JAPANESE FILMS]

1 Bayside Shakedown The Final Chapter: A New Hope (Toho) ¥8.2 billion ($103 million); 6.1 million admissions

2 Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥7.8 billion ($98 million); 5.8 million admissions

3 Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥6.2 billion ($78 million); 4.9 million admissions

4 Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (KlockWorx) ¥5.2 billion ($65 million); 4.2 million admissions

5 The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥4.5 billion ($56 million); 3.7 million admissions

6 Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) ¥4.2 billion ($52 million); 4.0 million admissions

7 Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥3.6 billion ($45 million); 3.3 million admissions

8 ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) ¥3.5 billion ($44 million); 2.7 million admissions

9 Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) ¥3.3 billion ($42 million); 2.8 million admissions

10 The Floating Castle (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥2.8 billion ($35 million); 2.1 million admissions

[iMPORTED FILMS]

1 The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥6.6 billion ($83 million); 4.7 million admissions

2 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) ¥5.5 billion ($71 million); 4.3 million admissions

3 Resident Evil: Retribution (Sony) ¥4.5 billion ($56 million); 3.1 million admissions

4 Brave (Disney) ¥4.0 billion ($50 million); 3.0 million admissions

5 Men in Black 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥3.7 billion ($46 million); 2.5 million admissions

6 Total Recall (Sony) ¥3.1 billion ($39 million); 2.3 million admissions

7 Prometheus (FOX) ¥2.5 billion ($32 million); 1.8 million admissions

8 Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥2.3 billion ($30 million); 1.9 million admissions

9 The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros.) ¥2.1 billion ($26 million); 1.7 million admissions

10 Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥2.0 billion ($25 million); 1.7 million admissions

So a 40%+ increase for TASM over the others
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Do you have a Ghibli Animation this year?

No, but The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki from Studio Mad House is looking to fill that void this year. Many are now expecting it to the surprise breakout this summer.Ghibli's next film is expected to be released Summer 2013, and Hayao Miyazaki himself will be the director (his first since Ponyo in 2008). And yes, The Amazing Spider-Man doesn't have to gross anywhere near the previous films in yen or admissions to outgross them in USD due to the vast difference in the exchange rate. Kinda like Pirates 4 last year. It outgrossed Pirates 2 and 3 in USD by a comfortable margin, but it was down 15% or so from them in yen and 20/25% in admissions. It's all to do with how strong the yen has been the past few years.
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Also, I don't have time this morning to post the Weekend Ranking, but Snow White comes in 3% higher than estimates. I'll have the Top 10 Ranking up sometimes this evening.

Great :)
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