JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Arlo245]

Could Moana get $20 million more or does $10-15 million make more sense?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

53 minutes ago, Arlo245 said:

Could Moana get $20 million more or does $10-15 million make more sense?

It depends on if Japan extends the thetrical run for Moana.

 

But on the other hand, sometimes when a Hollywood movie isn't #1 or that close to it the following weeks.....the theater counts sinks like rocks and could lead to ending it's theatrical run in Japan, faster than expected (See The Jungle Book 2016 for example).

[Olive]

#	Title	date	weekend	cume	Distributor
1	Sing	2017/3/17	Ұ 470,218,900	Ұ 3,191,649,590	Toho Towa
2	Moana	2017/3/10	Ұ 377,235,600	Ұ 3,728,405,000	Walt Disney Int'l
3	Kong: Skull Island	2017/3/25	Ұ 303,230,800	Ұ 1,155,841,000	Warner Bros Int'l
4	Doraemon: Great Adventure In The Antarct	2017/3/4	Ұ 278,872,700	Ұ 3,537,579,600	Toho
5	Daytime Shooting Star	2017/3/24	Ұ 142,075,200	Ұ 732,633,600	Toho
6	La La Land	2017/2/24	Ұ 122,137,300	Ұ 3,735,958,100	GAGA
7	Policeman And Me	2017/3/25	Ұ 117,792,300	Ұ 572,335,600	Shochiku
8	Kamen Raida x Supa Sentai: Cho Supahiro	2017/3/25	Ұ 96,752,400	Ұ 391,100,100	TOEI
9	Passengers	2017/3/24	Ұ 82,393,800	Ұ 394,999,200	Sony Int'l
10	Let's Go, Jets! (Cheerdance)	2017/3/11	Ұ 68,288,400	Ұ 1,021,479,000	Toho

[Olive]

2017 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥7.30 billion ($64.4 million) / 5.21 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.57 billion ($39.5 million) / 3.04 million [E] - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥4.25 billion ($36.9 million) / 2.87 million [E] - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥3.73 billion ($33.5 million) / 3.08 million [24] - Moana (Disney)
¥3.73 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.73 million [38] - La La Land (Gaga)
¥3.54 billion ($31.7 million) / 3.11 million [30] - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥3.21 billion ($27.8 million) / 2.89 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale (Toho)
¥3.19 billion ($28.7 million) / 2.64 million [17] - Sing (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.31 billion ($19.9 million) / 1.87 million [E] - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥2.17 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.53 million [44] - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.90 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.55 million [51] - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.22 million [E] - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥1.81 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.46 million [E] - Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho)
¥1.41 billion ($12.5 million) / 1.07 million [E] - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥1.19 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥1.15 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.78 million [09] - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.88 million [23] - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

[KevinPr]

Hi @Olive, any buzz for GitS in Japan? The movie will come out on Friday.

[Mr Impossible]

Moana seems to be headed to $45-$52M. 

Sing for $40-50M.

Kong around $25M. 

[James]

On 4/5/2017 at 5:50 AM, Olive said:

 

2017 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥7.30 billion ($64.4 million) / 5.21 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.57 billion ($39.5 million) / 3.04 million [E] - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥4.25 billion ($36.9 million) / 2.87 million [E] - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥3.73 billion ($33.5 million) / 3.08 million [24] - Moana (Disney)
¥3.73 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.73 million [38] - La La Land (Gaga)
¥3.54 billion ($31.7 million) / 3.11 million [30] - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥3.21 billion ($27.8 million) / 2.89 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale (Toho)
¥3.19 billion ($28.7 million) / 2.64 million [17] - Sing (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.31 billion ($19.9 million) / 1.87 million [E] - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥2.17 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.53 million [44] - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.90 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.55 million [51] - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥1.87 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.22 million [E] - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥1.81 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.46 million [E] - Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho)
¥1.41 billion ($12.5 million) / 1.07 million [E] - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥1.19 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.85 million [E] - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥1.15 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.78 million [09] - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.88 million [23] - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

Look at FB dominating that list!  Olive, what do you think will be the first movie that takes it down from the top spot?

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, James said:

Look at FB dominating that list!  Olive, what do you think will be the first movie that takes it down from the top spot?

 

Definitely Beauty and the Beast. Corpse thinks it can go over 10 billion yen.

[zackzack]

Kong only did $10M? I was thinking $20M+

Still possible?

[MinaTakla]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast (04/08-09)
01 (01) ¥286,000,000 ($2.6 million), -39%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.4 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK4
02 (02) ¥234,000,000 ($2.1 million), -38%, ¥4,325,000,000 ($38.9 million), Moana (Disney) WK5
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥315,000,000 ($2.8 million), Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa) NEW
04 (03) ¥193,000,000 ($1.7 million), -36%, ¥1,600,000,000 ($14.4 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) WK3
05 (04) ¥144,000,000 ($1.3 million), -48%, ¥3,950,000,000 ($35.5 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK6
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), The Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (Toho Video Division) NEW
07 (05) ¥92,000,000 ($830,000), -35%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.4 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥81,000,000 ($730,000), -34%, ¥3,900,000,000 ($34.8 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK7
09 (07) ¥71,000,000 ($640,000), -40%, ¥800,000,000 ($7.2 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) WK3
10 (06) ¥56,000,000 ($505,000, -42%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) WK3

This weekend may very well see many 40%+ drops since it's coming off of Spring Break and follows last weekend which had a discount day (last Saturday, the 1st of the month), but I'm going to be a little optimistic and hope for the best. 

As I mentioned above, Ghost in the Shell debuts this weekend, and based on its Friday and morning/afternoon ticket sales so far today, it's looking to do just alright. It'll pick up once the evening showings begin, so it's still early and perhaps it'll improve; a debut in second place is still doable. And either way, there's much precedent for a film like this to have disappointed or bomb, and it seems to be avoiding that at least and should do somewhat decently in the end.

[eXtacy]

Ghost in the Shell only a few thousand behind Sing in admissions on Saturday but it should win the weekend with higher ticket prices.

[chrisman0606]

From Corpse:

Weekend Estimates (04/08-09)
01 (01) ¥283,000,000 ($2.6 million), -40%, ¥3,925,000,000 ($35.4 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK4
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.0 million), Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa) NEW
03 (02) ¥227,000,000 ($2.1 million), -40%, ¥4,325,000,000 ($38.9 million), Moana (Disney) WK5
04 (03) ¥171,000,000 ($1.5 million), -44%, ¥1,575,000,000 ($14.2 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) WK3
05 (04) ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), -47%, ¥3,950,000,000 ($35.5 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK6
06 (05) ¥89,000,000 ($800,000), -37%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.4 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) WK3
07 (---) ¥80,000,000 ($720,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($990,000), The Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (Toho Video Division) NEW
08 (06) ¥74,000,000 ($665,000), -39%, ¥3,900,000,000 ($34.8 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK7
09 (07) ¥65,000,000 ($585,000), -45%, ¥800,000,000 ($7.2 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) WK3
10 (06) ¥57,000,000 ($515,000, -41%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) WK3

Many harsh post-Spring Break drops this weekend.

>Sing claims its fourth-consecutive week atop the weekend box office. Illumination's successful streak in the market continues, and although the somewhat heavy post-Spring Break decline for Sing likely means it won't have much staying power from this point forward, thus probably ruling out a ¥5 billion (~$45 million) total (blockbuster milestone), it's going to get quite close and outgross The Secret Life of Pets (¥4.24 billion). A huge success for Illumination once again. 

>Ghost in the Shell performed pretty well, especially given it could have done much worse based on previous Hollywoodized attempts at Japanese source material, either adapted or inspired by. There's no indication that legs will be anything but ordinary, so expect a total around ¥1.25 billion ($11/12 million).

>Moana slips to third place once again, and this weekend drop likely means it, too, won't have too much staying power in its post-Spring Break run to come. It's definitely coming in on the low end of legs (probably going to miss a 9 multiplier, and definitely missing 10), in terms of animated Disney releases (especially those of late), but a total over ¥5 billion (~$45 million), the blockbuster milestone, is still very likely and there's certainly nothing to disappointed about there despite failing to match its studio predecessors. 

>Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic experiences its regular harsh post-Spring Break drop, and its weekdays are about to become minuscule, but it's performed so well, even in the face of two major Hollywood animated hits/blockbusters, that it's going to exceed ¥4 billion very soon - and when it does, it'll become only the second film in the long running franchise to reach the mark, after last year's film, and might even go on to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise (needs to exceed last year's films' ¥4.12 billion).

[a2k]

25M USD seems tough for Kong.

[cannastop]

18 minutes ago, a2knet said:

25M USD seems tough for Kong.

Kind of looks impossible.

[a2k]

23 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Kind of looks impossible.

I don't follow Japan's BO patterns, but this weekend falls seem unexpectedly big. 44% is large drop for Kong. So is 40% for Sing and Moana. If Kong corrects and shows minimal drops for a couple of weekends, 20+ could be on track. Sometimes movies also rise a little in subsequent weekends, don't they, in Japan?

Edited April 9, 2017 by a2knet

[KP1025]

30 minutes ago, a2knet said:

I don't follow Japan's BO patterns, but this weekend falls seem unexpectedly big. 44% is large drop for Kong. So is 40% for Sing and Moana. If Kong corrects and shows minimal drops for a couple of weekends, 20+ could be on track. Sometimes movies also rise a little in subsequent weekends, don't they, in Japan?

 

 

Kong dropped 24% last weekend when other top movies increased or stayed almost flat (Discount  Saturday). That's a sign it won't have great legs for the remainder of its run. 30+% drops are common for most live-action films unless there's a holiday. To stay flat or increase on consecutive weekends requires incredible WOM...e.g Frozen, Your Name

[a2k]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

 

Kong dropped 24% last weekend when other top movies increased or stayed almost flat (Discount  Saturday). That's a sign it won't have great legs for the remainder of its run. 30+% drops are common for most live-action films unless there's a holiday. To stay flat or increase on consecutive weekends requires incredible WOM...e.g Frozen, Your Name

Thanks for the info . Gonna start following Japan's bo and try to grasp it more.

[Olive]

As of Sunday

Moana - 4.415B yen

Sing  - 4.045B yen

[NoobSaibot]

I wasn't expecting Kong: Skull Island to pass $20 million anyway.

[MinaTakla]

Corpse

 

Weekend Actuals (04/08-09)
01 (01) ¥310,195,000 ($2.8 million), -34%, ¥4,045,408,000 ($36.5 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK4
02 (---) ¥273,191,700 ($2.5 million), 0, ¥367,164,400 ($3.2 million), Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa) NEW
03 (02) ¥249,611,300 ($2.3 million), -34%, ¥4,414,983,900 ($39.7 million), Moana (Disney) WK5
04 (03) ¥169,379,300 ($1.5 million), -45%, ¥1,589,564,900 ($14.3 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) WK3
05 (04) ¥166,112,900 ($1.5 million), -42%, ¥4,038,973,500 ($36.3 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK6
06 (---) ¥101,440,300 ($916,000), 0, ¥138,136,900 ($1.2 million), The Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (Toho Video Division) NEW
06 (05) ¥89,899,100 ($812,000), -37%, ¥1,053,316,900 ($9.4 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥81,817,500 ($739,000), -33%, ¥3,925,306,200 ($35.0 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK7
09 (13) ¥71,126,800 ($642,000, +07%, ¥758,623,500 ($6.7 million), Kuroko no Basket: Last Game (Shochiku) WK4
10 (07) ¥64,776,300 ($579,000), -45%, ¥808,553,000 ($7.3 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) WK3

Actuals ended up improving quite nicely over estimates, and compared to the average post-Spring Break weekend, this year's holds are all around quite good!

>Sing claims its fourth-consecutive week atop the weekend box office. Illumination's successful streak in the market continues, as Sing will outgross The Secret Life of Pets (¥4.24 billion) within a week. The improved fourth weekend hold and improved cumulative total may be high enough to propel the film above the ¥5 billion (~$45 million) blockbuster milestone - very, very impressive. And after 24 days in release, the film has now sold an impressive 3,353,447 admissions and should exceed 4 million admissions. Japan is now the film's highest grossing overseas market.

>Ghost in the Shell performed pretty well, especially given it could have done much worse based on previous Hollywoodized attempts at Japanese source material, either adapted or inspired by. The Scarlett Johansson lead live-action adaptation sold 171,203 admissions over the weekend frame across 611 screens, and reached 233,329 admissions since opening on Friday. The film will likely have a degree of frontloading to it, but a total of ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million) could be doable.

>Moana slips to third place, and has sold an impressive 3,653,859 admissions after 31 days in release. While it's definitely coming in on the low end of legs in terms of animated Disney releases (especially those of late), a total over ¥5 billion (~$45 million), the blockbuster milestone, is locked up, and it might be able to climb closer to ¥6 billion (~$55 million). Japan is now the film's highest grossing overseas market. 

>Kong: Skull Island surprisingly had the worst hold over the post-Spring Break weekend, a weekend that's traditionally fairly good to non-animated/family films. After 16 days in release, the film has sold 1,076,556 admissions. Regardless of the sharp decline, it's still outpacing 2005's King Kong, though it's going to fall behind it soon since the 2005 film had the benefit of New Year after its third week. Still, a total above ¥2 billion (~$20 million) is likely, which is perfectly fine.

>Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic takes its regular harsh post-Spring Break drop, though this drop is actually on the better end of drops the franchise usually experiences. After 37 days in release, the film has sold 3,564,365 admissions. The 37th entry in the long running franchise exceeded the ¥4 billion milestone over the weekend, becoming only the second film in the franchise to ever reach the mark (after last year's film). It's outpacing last year's at this stage, and is locked to outgross it to become the highest-grossing film in the franchise - an incredible feat.

>Your Name. fell outside of the Top 20 in its 33rd week of release, but has brought its phenomenal total up to ¥24,869,647,600 ($235.3 million) with 19,159,920 admissions.