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hasanahmad

Monday Numbers (actuals page 8) TA 5.687

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On the memorial weekendOST fall 55% against Hangover 2 Robin Hood fall 44% with no competition (or Prince of Persia :P )SM3 fall 50% against AWES3 fall 56% against AWETroy fall 50% against TDATlets not talk about the second weekends of Da vinci conde, Narnia 2, Matrix 2 all above of 55% drop

Ok, good find...now let's break it down:OST fall 55% against Hangover 2: Second weekend, not a third. And in NA the film wasn't liked all that much.Robin Hood fall 44%: Good one...i won't try to justify thisSM3 fall 50% against AWE: Spiderman 3 is one of the most hated blockbusters of all time the wom killed this.Troy fall 50%: Good findMatrix Reloaded was in its second weekend and it too disappointed.I will say this, I didn't even think you would find this many. so I guess the possibility remains. I just don't think The Avengers is anywhere close to being as poorly received as every film on your list.
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You're not giving enough emphasis to the fact that it is a holiday weekend. That will play a much bigger factor in TA's drop than MIB3 opening.Yes, let's. 50.3% is the best 2nd weekend hold for a mega-blockbuster movie... defined by an OW in excess of $150 million.If we look at third weekends, TA's 46% drop is again impressive. SM3 did worse. The last HP movie did worse, and that was after having a massive 72% drop from the OW to the 2nd weekend.TA's dollar figures aren't just impressive, but it's drops have been as well. There's no reason to believe that trend will change this weekend.

the second weekend drop without the midnight is 45%, in the third weekend that number increased, not slow down like shouldSM3: the most hated superhero movie, right behind B&RDH2: frontload movie, isn't a valid comparision Edited by Goffe Rises

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My projections:

$5,600,000 -67%

$463,250,000 / 18

$4,400,000 -21%

$467,650,000 / 19

$3,750,000 -15%

$471,400,000 / 20

$3,700,000 -1%

$475,100,000 / 21

$9,000,000 +135%

$484,100,000 / 22

$13,300,000 +48%

$497,400,000 / 23

$12,500,000 -6%

$509,900,000 / 24

$9,300,000 -25%

$519,200,000 / 25

34.8m(-37%) 3 day/44.1m(-21%) 4 day

This is nice. I agree.

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A fun comparison would be Avengers minus its first week versus Iron Man's entire run.If it roughly keeps pace 600 should be a breeze. It's currently running ahead in the dailies.

Can't agree more :PThat's what I've wanted to point out since the second weekend.TA 2nd vs IM 1st: 103.1M vs 102.1M (plus preview)TA 3rd vs IM 2nd: 55.6M vs 51.2M
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Actuals:1 Marvel's The Avengers $5,687,934 -66% 4,249 -100 $1,339 $463,353,451 3 Disney 2 Battleship $2,361,665 -66% 3,690 -- $640 $27,896,490 1 Universal 3 The Dictator $2,157,365 -57% 3,008 -- $717 $26,633,538 1 Paramount 4 Dark Shadows $1,255,159 -64% 3,755 0 $334 $51,976,918 2 Warner Bros. 5 What to Expect When You're Expecting $1,138,289 -56% 3,021 -- $377 $11,685,357 1 Lionsgate 6 The Hunger Games $353,004 -59% 2,064 -467 $171 $391,934,445 9 Lionsgate 7 Think Like a Man $260,717 -62% 1,722 -330 $151 $86,099,177 5 Sony / Screen Gems 8 The Pirates! Band of Misfits $249,648 -56% 1,840 -1239 $136 $25,739,784 4 Sony / Columbia 9 The Lucky One (2012) $188,259 -58% 2,005 -834 $94 $57,122,887 5 Warner Bros. 10 The Five-Year Engagement $141,025 -55% 1,175 -1394 $120 $27,244,035 4 Universal

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After THG's 35% drop over the weekend, dropping only 11% from last Monday is... remarkable. Is that fudge that I smell?

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the second weekend drop without the midnight is 45%, in the third weekend that number increased, not slow down like shouldSM3: the most hated superhero movie, right behind B&RDH2: frontload movie, isn't a valid comparision

How many people had to view TA in 3D on OW that didn't want to, simply because all the 2D shows were sold out? How many second weekend? Third weekend? As the overall demand diminished and 2D seats became more available, that would work to accelerate the drop even more than would have been the case otherwise. So you can't just factor out midnights and claim it acted abnormally. TA's whole run is uncharted territory.Then there is the kid factor. I have a very strong suspicion that TA's crowd skewed younger after the first week to 10 days.Despite those factors it still managed a 46% drop third weekend. I don't see how your gloom-and-doom prediction for the holiday weekend can materialize. Edited by doublejack

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Actuals:1 Marvel's The Avengers $5,687,934 -66% 4,249 -100 $1,339 $463,353,451 3 Disney

Went up. That total after 18 days just astounds me. It has now passed SM3's multiplier and nearly made on its 18th day what SM3 made on its 7th.
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Yep, good stat AA.....it really is a remarkable run.

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It'll pass IM2's multiplier by Sunday.

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It'll pass IM2's multiplier by Sunday.

Precisely why comparisons with IM2 are not applicable. I'm not sure why people insist upon going there.

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Well one thing to remember...TA still is the number 1 film so it is still on many screens...Even with MIB the release is nowhere near as wide as lets say Pirates 3.So it won't kill the film.Further the film has done well on Sat and Sunday and now it has a weekend with pretty much 2 Saturdays and a Sunday.So really, I think TA should not drop over 25%.MIb3 looks to be looking for 80 million at most for the 4-day which is good but not overwhelming.

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Not that anyone's paying attention, but that's a really nice number for Dictator.

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Ok, good find...now let's break it down:OST fall 55% against Hangover 2: Second weekend, not a third. And in NA the film wasn't liked all that much.Robin Hood fall 44%: Good one...i won't try to justify thisSM3 fall 50% against AWE: Spiderman 3 is one of the most hated blockbusters of all time the wom killed this.Troy fall 50%: Good findMatrix Reloaded was in its second weekend and it too disappointed.I will say this, I didn't even think you would find this many. so I guess the possibility remains. I just don't think The Avengers is anywhere close to being as poorly received as every film on your list.

Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30m

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Not that anyone's paying attention, but that's a really nice number for Dictator.

I said that a page back. It's a great hold.

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I underestimated the Canadian holiday bump. Yay for TA. I see it holding steady for Tuesday. It would have increased if not for the abnormal Monday holiday bump.

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Since my guesses weren't completely blown out of the water last week (about 2% under wed-sun) I will give it another go.Tue - 4.0mWed - 2.9mThur - 3.1mwe (3 day) - 30m

Why would it fall 28 and 27% on tues/wed?

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