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Captain Marvel | 8 MARCH 2019 | Brie Larson, Samuel L Jackson, Clark Gregg.

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7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I think that TA4 will largely depend on what they do with the original 6. That's the biggest draw for the movie, how they'll edn their stories, who lives, who dies, who stays with the Avengers, who moves on. if it's satisfying and not too safe but not shocking for the sake of shock either, and it's emotional af, it'll have great retention from AIW or could go higher. Emotions drive legs, spectacle drives OW. 

 

The trailer will destroy the internet!

 

on a serious note, I don’t know if it could top the opening for Infinity War but if it doesn’t, I can’t see it decreasing more than $10M. Similar to The Force Awakens>The Last Jedi OW drop, a lot of speculation came out of Infinity War and it’s ending, not just from fans but the general public as well, so much that it’s definitely going to drive people to theaters to see the outcome. However if they also literally market it as “the epic conclusion, “it ends here,” “the finale to the worldwide phenomenon,” etc it can potentially once again top the opening record.

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28 minutes ago, Premium George said:

All that will take black panther to $300m not $700m. And it was a very big surprise. People in hindsight are acting like it was always supppsed to be that big. BP, American sniper, wonder woman, these movies always have big external effects. Marvel has all that plus a post credit scene in 4th biggest movie of all time, and connection to 4th avengers. $500m+ dom, it's not as difficult for this as people are thinking. 

 I wish people will learn after being wrong about incredibles 2. All box analysis with finding nemo, dory failed by not taking social media hype into consideration.

I was responding to someone calling it Black Panther 2, not someone saying 500m dom. Not sure what it was meant by that, but Black Panther had special A+ cinemascore legs (same for Incredible 2), not just one of the biggest OW of all time going on for them.

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I was responding to someone calling it Black Panther 2, not someone saying 500m dom. Not sure what it was meant by that, but Black Panther had special A+ cinemascore legs (same for Incredible 2), not just one of the biggest OW of all time going on for them.

By black panther 2.0, I meant, this will blow past everyone's prediction. And yes, I am expecting great legs from this too despite busy schedule around that time, kinda like wondy. 

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Just now, Premium George said:

By black panther 2.0, I meant, this will blow past everyone's prediction.

I have no idea what you mean by that too, I will change my answer for maybe ?, what are everyone prediction you have in mind that it will blow past,  650m to 1.15b ? (850 +/-200) ?

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17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I have no idea what you mean by that too, I will change my answer for maybe ?, what are everyone prediction you have in mind that it will blow past,  650m to 1.15b ? (850 +/-200) ?

Looks like most predictions are around $350m dom and $850m ww. Dman7 goes super high with every mcu film.

I think $500m+/ $1.1b+ performance.

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40 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The correlation between box office and budget tend to be quite big:

kmjxuh71ib1z.png

 

If low budget was not in hindrance to your box office potential, why would they ever go above 150m ;) ?

 

Lower budget could mean less money-shoot, production value in the trailers, etc... but it could also show less enthusiasm from Feig an co. on the high concept and world building for this project vs a Black Panther were they went all in with some giant production.

More enthusiasm for Doctor Strange? :whosad:

 

@JGAR4LIFE Agreed, there's going to be only one epic conclusion of the saga next year, than that's TA4. Trailer will literally break the internet. they say this and that will but never does, this will. 

 

@Premium George

 

 @DMan7 will end up closer to CM boxoffice than 300M+ predictors if it makes money in your projected range. :)

Edited by Valonqar

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22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

More enthusiasm for Doctor Strange? :whosad:

 

@JGAR4LIFE Agreed, there's going to be only one epic conclusion of the saga next year, than that's TA4. Trailer will literally break the internet. they say this and that will but never does, this will. 

 

@Premium George

 

 @DMan7 will end up closer to CM boxoffice than 300M+ predictors if it makes money in your projected range. :)

Broken clock and all. Good stuff.

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I think Captain Marvel is going to be a huge hit, but talk of it ourgrosssing Infinity Wars OW is, well, a bit too much.

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32 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I think Captain Marvel is going to be a huge hit, but talk of it ourgrosssing Infinity Wars OW is, well, a bit too much.

 

I think they are talking about A4 topping infinity War. not Captain Marvel. CM. should do great numbers though. $400m+

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

The correlation between box office and budget tend to be quite big:

kmjxuh71ib1z.png

 

If low budget was not in hindrance to your box office potential, why would they ever go above 150m ;) ?

 

Lower budget could mean less money-shoot, production value in the trailers, etc... but it could also show less enthusiasm from Feig an co. on the high concept and world building for this project vs a Black Panther were they went all in with some giant production.

No Infinity War?

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26 minutes ago, fastclock said:

No Infinity War?

Nor Black Panther, grapic is a bit old, but put Infinity War all the way up and all the way right (outside the actual graphic, made so much that it would out of it)

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5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Kevin maybe in charge of mediocre cinematic universe but at least he respects big man Jim

Jim likes those movies too

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Brie Larson , that s the kind of actress James Cameron would have cast if if he had directed this.

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I think this will struggle more OS. 

 

Female-lead hero movies (Disney's Star Wars, The Hunger Games, WW) have done less than expected (% wise) this decade. Same with Space Operas (SW again, Star Trek, GOTG)

 

People also need to remember that 300m DOM is also a huge win for this. Remember that CW, IM3 and AoU were all huge hits and they did "just" 400-450m (Same for the Guardians 330-380m).

 

Don't be fooled thinking that every Marvel movie is gonna do 680m. This might break out and do it, or "just" 400m. But even 300m is inarguably a big win for this. (Just like Ant Man did enough to not be a disappointment and was very shy of being a win).

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19 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

I think this will struggle more OS. 

 

Female-lead hero movies (Disney's Star Wars, The Hunger Games, WW) have done less than expected (% wise) this decade. Same with Space Operas (SW again, Star Trek, GOTG)

Maybe but for the Hunger Games book was a domestic heavy phenomenon and Liongates rely on local distributor for all markets and the Star Wars movie with a male lead was the weaker % for the OS share with Solo, that a franchise that always has been domestic heavy.

 

Last Tomb Raider, all the Resident Evils, the last 2 Underworld, Lucy, Ghost in the shell, there is a list of female-lead hero movie like that did better intl than dom.

 

The US military angle, the theme, SH being really strong in the US, you could be right obviously but that far from an automatic, they are getting good at selling all around the world and the brand seem popular in many big and growing market.

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13 hours ago, Premium George said:

Of course, express them all you want, everyone is doing that here . But don't confuse it as fact which you did in that comment. Hope you know the difference as your reading skill already seems lacking.

 

I thought everything that we posted here, unless they were backed up by numbers, we're just opinions. I mean, do you need me to state in every single post of mine, in my opinion?

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2 minutes ago, Dr Loomis baumer said:

I thought everything that we posted here, unless they were backed up by numbers, we're just opinions. I mean, do you need me to state in every single post of mine, in my opinion?

"hey, you are all excited even tho this is bad."

How is this just an opinion? Do you understand how this works?

"Hey, this is bad but you do you."

See the difference?

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1 hour ago, Premium George said:

"hey, you are all excited even tho this is bad."

How is this just an opinion? Do you understand how this works?

"Hey, this is bad but you do you."

See the difference?

I completely fail to see any difference between the 2 (but I imagine if I would have followed the conversation that was the point, saying how they both use the exact same formulation this is bad)

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