Aristis Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Aladdin is safe to pass Dumbo. WE Dumbo Aladdin 1st 470k --- 470k 471k --- 471k 2nd 403k -14% 954k 513k +9% 1,08M 3rd 320k -21% 1,4M 331k -35% 1,46M 4th 184k -42% 1,72M 187k -44% 1,81M 5th 208k +13% 2M 104k -44% 1,94M 6th 116k -44% 2,16M 117k +12% 2,09M 7th 73k -37% 2,24M 77k -34% 2,23M It's just 60k away (really strange for Dumbo that it just added 50k more after that...) 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 Do we have any idea of where TLK is headed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 11, 2019 Share Posted July 11, 2019 10 hours ago, VenomXXR said: Do we have any idea of where TLK is headed? Sadly I can't really say much about that... Seeing how the other Disney Remakes faired it should do fine. I'd say chances are high to become the biggest of them passing AiW (4,54M), especially since TJB (3,72M) which should be the most comparable did so well here (it's the 2nd biggest of the remakes). The JPBO users predict around 5,25M admissions on average. I don't know how reliable they are when it comes to predictions, though. But 5M admissions may be a good target. That'd around be €35M and $40M. However, that isn't based on anything reliable so don't quote me on that if it disappoints 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 10.07. - 14.07. 1 475.637 -57 1.845.815 2 Spider Man:FFH 2 450.800 -34 2.882.970 3 Toy Story 4 3 301.863 --- 301.863 1 Annabelle 3 4 223.704 --- 223.704 1 Anna 5 97.252 -59 398.176 2 Ibiza 6 96.457 --- 96.457 1 Premier de la classe 7 92.639 -44 307.903 2 Yesterday 8 49.278 -36 2.310.518 8 Aladdin 9 36.950 -54 919.728 5 MIB:International 10 29.572 -70 1.140.098 6 Parasite Relatively big drops the week after Fête du Cinéma. SM:FFH 2nd WE isn't much bigger than its inflated OD (453k). It'll pass its predecessor, 3M will be tough though. Maybe 2,75M+. TS4 dropped well considering the circumstances and should get to more than 4M+, if TLK won't hurt it that much it may even get around 4,5M. OD OW OWeek Total Multipler Toy Story 1 0,100 0,444 0,497 2,760 6,22 1996 Toy Story 2 0,145 0,747 0,927 4,530 6,06 2000 Toy Story 3 0,390 1,057 1,277 4,363 4,13 2010 Toy Story 4 0,306 1,100 1,506 4,000 3,64 2019 Annabelle3 opened below both of its predecessors... OD OW Total Multipler Annabelle 1 79k 429k 1,538M 3,59 Annabelle 2 103k 372k 1,232M 3,31 Annabelle 3 100k 302k 1,000M 3,31 The 2nd ones multipler would still be enough to reach 1M. Aladdin had the 2nd best drop in the TOP10. It passed Dumbo now and will reach 2,4M+. http://www.jpbox-office.com/classfr.php?idsem=2585 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 17, 2019 Share Posted July 17, 2019 @Aristis Any 2PM numbers for Lion King? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Endgame already ended its run in France? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waffles Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 630k opening day for Lion King, 12th best all-time in France, ahead of The Force Awakens 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 (edited) 630k is huge! And I thought Germany was big OD ODXOW OW TLK 0,630 3,17 2,000+ TJB 0,278 3,92 1,090 BATB 0,269 4,25 1,143 Alice 0,252 5,63 1,418 OZ 0,124 5,10 0,633 Maleficent 0,086 6,37 0,548 Cinderella 0,086 6,66 0,573 Dumbo 0,085 5,53 0,470 Aladdin 0,078 6,04 0,471 Nutcracker 0,049 4,67 0,229 MP 0,044 6,66 0,293 Of course it's the biggest of the LA remakes, and it also means after 1st day its OW is the fourth biggest... So it'll do 2M+ easily over the WE. Edit: I would actually say 2,25M should be the low end for the 5-day... Edited July 18, 2019 by Aristis 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 (edited) CineDirectors predicts 2,2M Week for TLK. 1 Le roi lion 2 200 000 New 2,200 2 Toy story 4 485 000 - 20 % 3,523 3 Spider-man : Far from home 440 000 - 30 % 2,441 4 Annabelle 3 270 000 - 30 % 0,655 5 Anna 180 000 - 35 % 0,461 6 Yesterday 100 000 - 20 % 0,445 7 Le coup du siècle 95 000 New 0,095 8 Ibiza 90 000 - 35 % 0,527 9 Premier de la classe 90 000 - 35 % 0,223 10 Parasite 80 000 - 15 % 1,283 11 Aladdin 60 000 - 10 % 2,389 http://www.cine-directors.net/box/2019/boxoff29.htm Normally they are the ones to overestimate, hopefully this time it's the other way round since this is the 7-day and I thought it should get to around 2,25M 5-day. But we will see. This would still be huge and the 2nd biggest OW between AEG (2,84M) and Serial (Bad) Wedding 2 (1,85M). The other ones would be some nice drops facing the roaring competition, especially for Aladdin. Edited July 19, 2019 by Aristis 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 France is doing great for TLK. Untill Friday it was the biggest OS market outside China with $11,3M. If the daily numbers were correct it did something like this (applying the same ATP as OD for all days): Gross Admissions Wed $4,8M $4,8M 0,63M 0,63M Thu $3,5M $8,3M 0,46M 1,09M Fr $2,9M $11,2M 0,38M 1,47M So even if it doesn't increase Sat and Sun (and would do around $3M each) it'd get to around 2,26M. So the minimum should be between $17M and $18M for 2,25M to 2,35M admissions. And it could of course come closer to 2,5M... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Aristis said: France is doing great for TLK. Untill Friday it was the biggest OS market outside China with $11,3M. If the daily numbers were correct it did something like this (applying the same ATP as OD for all days): Gross Admissions Wed $4,8M $4,8M 0,63M 0,63M Thu $3,5M $8,3M 0,46M 1,09M Fr $2,9M $11,2M 0,38M 1,47M So even if it doesn't increase Sat and Sun (and would do around $3M each) it'd get to around 2,26M. So the minimum should be between $17M and $18M for 2,25M to 2,35M admissions. And it could of course come closer to 2,5M... According to first estimates TLK had a great $19M opening, which (with OD ATP) would be around 2,5M admissions. After 12th biggest OD it has a chance to have the 10th biggest OW (HP 7.2 with 2,53M)! Still, even coming in at 2,4M to 2,5M this is just gigantic as it would already be the 4th or 5th biggest Disney remake! That is just awesome Edit: $19,6M probably locks an OW at 2,5M+... Edited July 21, 2019 by Aristis 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 More details later, but TLK did it: 2.559.370!!! 10th biggest OW: 1 3.586.497 Bienvenue ches les Ch‘tis 2 3.235.559 Les Bronzés 3 3 2.960.046 Asterix & Obelix 2 4 2.951.255 Taxi Taxi 5 2.878.764 SW3 6 2.844.886 A:EG 7 2.802.529 HP4 8 2.711.869 Asterix & Obelix 3 9 2.705.096 SW7 10 2.559.370 TLK 4 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Dear God, 90% of Endgame! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 17.07. - 21.07. 1 2.559.370 --- 2.559.370 1 TLK 2 280.201 -41 2.281.028 3 SM:FFH 3 277.990 -38 3.316.177 4 Toy Story 4 4 149.364 -51 534.066 2 Annabelle 3 5 115.379 -48 396.152 2 Anna 6 89.381 --- 89.381 1 Glam Girls 7 68.861 -26 413.496 3 Yesterday 8 59.704 -38 192.410 2 Premier de la classe 9 55.976 -42 492.816 3 Ibiza 10 34.865 --- 34.865 1 TLK debuts on Top with a giant OW (as stated above 10th biggest ever). After only one WE the movie is already the 4th biggest, and therefore passed this years successes Dumbo and Aladdin. By next WE it should have passed BATB and TJB and a week after will be the biggest. (title / OD / OW / total / multipler) TLK 0,630 2,559 7,000 x2,74 Alice 0,252 1,418 4,537 x3,20 TJB 0,278 1,090 3,720 x3,41 BATB 0,269 1,143 3,568 x3,12 Aladdin 0,078 0,471 2,450 x5,20 Dumbo 0,085 0,470 2,400 x5,11 Maleficent 0,086 0,548 2,047 x3,74 Cinderella 0,086 0,573 1,722 x3,01 OZ 0,124 0,633 1,590 x2,51 MP 0,044 0,293 1,535 x5,24 Nutcracker 0,049 0,229 0,802 x3,50 It's huge in comparison to the original TLK from 1994 too as it opened 120% above (1,15M). That one had great legs of course to reach 10,14M (x8,82). However, TLK will become the 3rd movie of the year to reach more than 6M admissions (and SW9 will be the 4th later this year) after last year didn't have a single one... It's hard to say where this will land but I think that it should pass A:EG (6,81M) to end its short reign (funny thing is that every quarter there is a new 6M+ movie and, if SW9 doesn't disappoint, tops the one before). With around 7M ($53M) admissions it should (again) become the biggest movie since SW8 (7,08M) and if it passed that one the biggest since SW7 (10,31M). I'll make the others rather short now. SM:FFH is about to pass its predecessor soon (it's just 30k behind) and the second part is still far above the first (3rd WE: 280k vs. 233k). It'll try to reach CA3 in order to pass 3M though that might be hard. The Spider will surely become the 10th biggest MCU movie though with 2,85M+. TS4 is still looking at 4M+. Passing its predecessors may be hard though. Annabelle 3 won't reach 1M+. The franchise is on a steady decline it seems with every entry decreasing 300k from the former. It may stop below 900k. In the 11th position Aladdin fell hard facing the King. It was down 62% for 26k and 2,35M. It may still get to 2,45M when all is done. Top10 2019: 1 6.808.681 A:EG 2 6.703.714 Serial (Bad) Wedding 2 3 3.371.151 Captain Marvel 4 3.367.445 HTTYD3 5 3.316.177 Toy Story 4 6 2.759.614 Little White Lies 2 7 2.559.370 TLK 8 2.384.483 Dumbo 9 2.354.407 Aladdin 10 2.323.402 Ralph 2 TLK is 7th just from OW. By next WE it'll be 3rd. Dumbo gained some admissions, I was to early to congratulate Aladdin, though it should pass the flying elephant again. http://www.insidekino.com/BO/F2019.htm http://www.jpbox-office.com/classfr.php?idsem=2586 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Huge OWeek for TLK! 3,253M OD OW Midweek OWeek Total Multipler TLK 0,630 2,559 0,694 3,253 7,500 x2,93 Alice 0,252 1,418 0,182 1,600 4,537 x3,20 TJB 0,278 1,090 0,213 1,303 3,720 x3,41 BATB 0,269 1,143 0,139 1,282 3,568 x3,12 Aladdin 0,078 0,471 0,092 0,563 2,450 x5,20 Dumbo 0,085 0,470 0,081 0,551 2,400 x5,11 Maleficent 0,086 0,548 0,080 0,628 2,047 x3,74 Cinderella 0,086 0,573 0,063 0,636 1,722 x3,01 OZ 0,124 0,633 0,155 0,788 1,590 x2,51 MP 0,044 0,293 0,097 0,390 1,535 x5,24 Nutcracker 0,049 0,229 0,026 0,255 0,802 x3,50 Dropping less than 50% from OW and it can already top AiW and become the biggest of them... I don't think I get carried away saying that it won't go below 7,5M ($57M). SW9 really needs to be worried now it cannot be the biggest movie of 2019 in France... 8 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Aristis said: Huge OWeek for TLK! 3,253M OD OW Midweek OWeek Total Multipler TLK 0,630 2,559 0,694 3,253 7,500 x2,93 Alice 0,252 1,418 0,182 1,600 4,537 x3,20 TJB 0,278 1,090 0,213 1,303 3,720 x3,41 BATB 0,269 1,143 0,139 1,282 3,568 x3,12 Aladdin 0,078 0,471 0,092 0,563 2,450 x5,20 Dumbo 0,085 0,470 0,081 0,551 2,400 x5,11 Maleficent 0,086 0,548 0,080 0,628 2,047 x3,74 Cinderella 0,086 0,573 0,063 0,636 1,722 x3,01 OZ 0,124 0,633 0,155 0,788 1,590 x2,51 MP 0,044 0,293 0,097 0,390 1,535 x5,24 Nutcracker 0,049 0,229 0,026 0,255 0,802 x3,50 Dropping less than 50% from OW and it can already top AiW and become the biggest of them... I don't think I get carried away saying that it won't go below 7,5M ($57M). SW9 really needs to be worried now it cannot be the biggest movie of 2019 in France... whats the maximum total that lion king can do ? in $ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 8 hours ago, john2000 said: whats the maximum total that lion king can do ? in $ ? Well, maximum is very hard to say (especially for me as I'm very cautious with predictions...) but I'd say it's likely to fall between 7,5M and 8M (which would be BATB multipler) and therefore $57M to $61M, and a very high end being around 8,5M (with TJB multipler TLK would get to 8,7M) and around $65M. But, at least until after the 2nd WE, I'm staying around 7,5M for it. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 There's a long story of me underestimating TLK Spoiler TLK defeated my expectations - again (after OD [maybe 350k? 630k!], OW [if it does great 2,25M? 2,559M!], OWeek [3M+? 3,25M!] the third time now... According to Deadline it's at $40,1M. I said if it drops less than 50% it could reach 4,5M+ ($34M) and hoped it may get to 4,75M and $36M. Long story short: $40,1M which should mean around 5,2M+ admissions (ifI don't underestimate it again...). And -32%, what Deadline reports, would mean 1,74M 2nd WE and around 5M. Just huge... 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Aristis said: There's a long story of me underestimating TLK Hide contents TLK defeated my expectations - again (after OD [maybe 350k? 630k!], OW [if it does great 2,25M? 2,559M!], OWeek [3M+? 3,25M!] the third time now... According to Deadline it's at $40,1M. I said if it drops less than 50% it could reach 4,5M+ ($34M) and hoped it may get to 4,75M and $36M. Long story short: $40,1M which should mean around 5,2M+ admissions (ifI don't underestimate it again...). And -32%, what Deadline reports, would mean 1,74M 2nd WE and around 5M. Just huge... Could be the biggest movie of the year in France, no? O/U $70m? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: Could be the biggest movie of the year in France, no? O/U $70m? SW9 is probably the only contender that could top it (SW7 10,31M, SW8 7,08M). But as things develop I start to think TLK becomes to big to be passed... 8,5M+ and $65M+ seem realistic. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...