Jump to content

Olive

Official France Box Office Thread

Recommended Posts

Aladdin is safe to pass Dumbo.

 

WE

Dumbo

Aladdin

1st

470k

---

470k

471k

---

471k

2nd

403k

-14%

954k

513k

+9%

1,08M

3rd

320k

-21%

1,4M

331k

-35%

1,46M

4th

184k

-42%

1,72M

187k

-44%

1,81M

5th

208k

+13%

2M

104k

-44%

1,94M

6th

116k

-44%

2,16M

117k

+12%

2,09M

7th

73k

-37%

2,24M

77k

-34%

2,23M

 

It's just 60k away (really strange for Dumbo that it just added 50k more after that...)

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



10 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Do we have any idea of where TLK is headed?

Sadly I can't really say much about that... Seeing how the other Disney Remakes faired it should do fine.

I'd say chances are high to become the biggest of them passing AiW (4,54M), especially since TJB (3,72M) which should be the most comparable did so well here (it's the 2nd biggest of the remakes).

The JPBO users predict around 5,25M admissions on average. I don't know how reliable they are when it comes to predictions, though.

 

But 5M admissions may be a good target. That'd around be €35M and $40M. However, that isn't based on anything reliable so don't quote me on that if it disappoints :ph34r:

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



10.07. - 14.07.

 

1

475.637

-57

1.845.815

2

Spider Man:FFH

2

450.800

-34

2.882.970

3

Toy Story 4

3

301.863

---

301.863

1

Annabelle 3

4

223.704

---

223.704

1

Anna

5

97.252

-59

398.176

2

Ibiza

6

96.457

---

96.457

1

Premier de la classe

7

92.639

-44

307.903

2

Yesterday

8

49.278

-36

2.310.518

8

Aladdin

9

36.950

-54

919.728

5

MIB:International

10

29.572

-70

1.140.098

6

Parasite

 

Relatively big drops the week after Fête du Cinéma.

 

SM:FFH 2nd WE isn't much bigger than its inflated OD (453k). It'll pass its predecessor, 3M will be tough though. Maybe 2,75M+.

 

TS4 dropped well considering the circumstances and should get to more than 4M+, if TLK won't hurt it that much it may even get around 4,5M.

 

OD

OW

OWeek

Total

Multipler

 

Toy Story 1

0,100

0,444

0,497

2,760

6,22

1996

Toy Story 2

0,145

0,747

0,927

4,530

6,06

2000

Toy Story 3

0,390

1,057

1,277

4,363

4,13

2010

Toy Story 4

0,306

1,100

1,506

4,000

3,64

2019

 

Annabelle3 opened below both of its predecessors...

 

OD

OW

Total

Multipler

Annabelle 1

79k

429k

1,538M

3,59

Annabelle 2

103k

372k

1,232M

3,31

Annabelle 3

100k

302k

1,000M

3,31

The 2nd ones multipler would still be enough to reach 1M.

 

Aladdin had the 2nd best drop in the TOP10. It passed Dumbo now and will reach 2,4M+.

 

http://www.jpbox-office.com/classfr.php?idsem=2585

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites





630k is huge! And I thought Germany was big :D

 

 

 

 

OD

ODXOW

OW

TLK

0,630

3,17

2,000+

TJB

0,278

3,92

1,090

BATB

0,269

4,25

1,143

Alice

0,252

5,63

1,418

OZ

0,124

5,10

0,633

Maleficent

0,086

6,37

0,548

Cinderella

0,086

6,66

0,573

Dumbo

0,085

5,53

0,470

Aladdin

0,078

6,04

0,471

Nutcracker

0,049

4,67

0,229

MP

0,044

6,66

0,293

 

Of course it's the biggest of the LA remakes, and it also means after 1st day its OW is the fourth biggest... So it'll do 2M+ easily over the WE.

 

Edit: I would actually say 2,25M should be the low end for the 5-day...

Edited by Aristis
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CineDirectors predicts 2,2M Week for TLK.

 

1
Le roi lion

2 200 000

New
2,200
     
2

485 000

- 20 %
3,523
     
3

440 000

- 30 %
2,441
     
4
Annabelle 3

270 000

- 30 %
0,655
     
5
Anna

180 000

- 35 %
0,461
     
6
Yesterday

100 000

- 20 %
0,445
     
7
Le coup du siècle

95 000

New
0,095
     
8
Ibiza

90 000

- 35 %
0,527
     
9
Premier de la classe

90 000

- 35 %
0,223
     
10

80 000

- 15 %
1,283
     
11
Aladdin

60 000

- 10 %
2,389
     

http://www.cine-directors.net/box/2019/boxoff29.htm

 

Normally they are the ones to overestimate, hopefully this time it's the other way round since this is the 7-day and I thought it should get to around 2,25M 5-day. But we will see. This would still be huge and the 2nd biggest OW between AEG (2,84M) and Serial (Bad) Wedding 2 (1,85M).

 

The other ones would be some nice drops facing the roaring competition, especially for Aladdin.

Edited by Aristis
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



France is doing great for TLK. Untill Friday it was the biggest OS market outside China with $11,3M.

If the daily numbers were correct it did something like this (applying the same ATP as OD for all days):

 

Gross

Admissions

Wed

$4,8M

$4,8M

0,63M

0,63M

Thu

$3,5M

$8,3M

0,46M

1,09M

Fr

$2,9M

$11,2M

0,38M

1,47M

 

So even if it doesn't increase Sat and Sun (and would do around $3M each) it'd get to around 2,26M. So the minimum should be between $17M and $18M for 2,25M to 2,35M admissions. And it could of course come closer to 2,5M...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Aristis said:

France is doing great for TLK. Untill Friday it was the biggest OS market outside China with $11,3M.

If the daily numbers were correct it did something like this (applying the same ATP as OD for all days):

 

 

 

Gross

 

 

Admissions

 

 

Wed

 

 

$4,8M

 

 

$4,8M

 

 

0,63M

 

 

0,63M

 

 

Thu

 

 

$3,5M

 

 

$8,3M

 

 

0,46M

 

 

1,09M

 

 

Fr

 

 

$2,9M

 

 

$11,2M

 

 

0,38M

 

 

1,47M

 

 

 

So even if it doesn't increase Sat and Sun (and would do around $3M each) it'd get to around 2,26M. So the minimum should be between $17M and $18M for 2,25M to 2,35M admissions. And it could of course come closer to 2,5M...

According to first estimates TLK had a great $19M opening, which (with OD ATP) would be around 2,5M admissions. After 12th biggest OD it has a chance to have the 10th biggest OW (HP 7.2 with 2,53M)!

Still, even coming in at 2,4M to 2,5M this is just gigantic as it would already be the 4th or 5th biggest Disney remake!

That is just awesome :ohmygod:

 

Edit: $19,6M probably locks an OW at 2,5M+...

Edited by Aristis
  • Like 6
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



More details later, but TLK did it: 2.559.370!!! :ohmygod:

 

10th biggest OW:

1

3.586.497

Bienvenue ches les Ch‘tis

2

3.235.559

Les Bronzés 3

3

2.960.046

Asterix & Obelix 2

4

2.951.255

Taxi Taxi

5

2.878.764

SW3

6

2.844.886

A:EG

7

2.802.529

HP4

8

2.711.869

Asterix & Obelix 3

9

2.705.096

SW7

10

2.559.370

TLK

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
  • Astonished 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



17.07. - 21.07.

 

1

2.559.370

---

2.559.370

1

TLK

2

280.201

-41

2.281.028

3

SM:FFH

3

277.990

-38

3.316.177

4

Toy Story 4

4

149.364

-51

534.066

2

Annabelle 3

5

115.379

-48

396.152

2

Anna

6

89.381

---

89.381

1

Glam Girls

7

68.861

-26

413.496

3

Yesterday

8

59.704

-38

192.410

2

Premier de la classe

9

55.976

-42

492.816

3

Ibiza

10

34.865

---

34.865

1

 

 

TLK debuts on Top with a giant OW (as stated above 10th biggest ever). After only one WE the movie is already the 4th biggest, and therefore passed this years successes Dumbo and Aladdin. By next WE it should have passed BATB and TJB and a week after will be the biggest.

 

(title / OD / OW / total / multipler)

TLK

0,630

2,559

7,000

x2,74

Alice

0,252

1,418

4,537

x3,20

TJB

0,278

1,090

3,720

x3,41

BATB

0,269

1,143

3,568

x3,12

Aladdin

0,078

0,471

2,450

x5,20

Dumbo

0,085

0,470

2,400

x5,11

Maleficent

0,086

0,548

2,047

x3,74

Cinderella

0,086

0,573

1,722

x3,01

OZ

0,124

0,633

1,590

x2,51

MP

0,044

0,293

1,535

x5,24

Nutcracker

0,049

0,229

0,802

x3,50

 

It's huge in comparison to the original TLK from 1994 too as it opened 120% above (1,15M). That one had great legs of course to reach 10,14M (x8,82). However, TLK will become the 3rd movie of the year to reach more than 6M admissions (and SW9 will be the 4th later this year) after last year didn't have a single one...

It's hard to say where this will land but I think that it should pass A:EG (6,81M) to end its short reign (funny thing is that every quarter there is a new 6M+ movie and, if SW9 doesn't disappoint, tops the one before). With around 7M ($53M) admissions it should (again) become the biggest movie since SW8 (7,08M) and if it passed that one the biggest since SW7 (10,31M).

 

I'll make the others rather short now. SM:FFH is about to pass its predecessor soon (it's just 30k behind) and the second part is still far above the first (3rd WE: 280k vs. 233k). It'll try to reach CA3 in order to pass 3M though that might be hard. The Spider will surely become the 10th biggest MCU movie though with 2,85M+.

 

TS4 is still looking at 4M+. Passing its predecessors may be hard though.

 

Annabelle 3 won't reach 1M+. The franchise is on a steady decline it seems with every entry decreasing 300k from the former. It may stop below 900k.

 

In the 11th position Aladdin fell hard facing the King. It was down 62% for 26k and 2,35M. It may still get to 2,45M when all is done.

 

Top10 2019:

1

6.808.681

A:EG

2

6.703.714

Serial (Bad) Wedding 2

3

3.371.151

Captain Marvel

4

3.367.445

HTTYD3

5

3.316.177

Toy Story 4

6

2.759.614

Little White Lies 2

7

2.559.370

TLK

8

2.384.483

Dumbo

9

2.354.407

Aladdin

10

2.323.402

Ralph 2

 

TLK is 7th just from OW. By next WE it'll be 3rd. Dumbo gained some admissions, I was to early to congratulate Aladdin, though it should pass the flying elephant again.

 

http://www.insidekino.com/BO/F2019.htm

http://www.jpbox-office.com/classfr.php?idsem=2586

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Huge OWeek for TLK! 3,253M

 

 

OD

OW

Midweek

OWeek

Total

Multipler

TLK

0,630

2,559

0,694

3,253

7,500

x2,93

Alice

0,252

1,418

0,182

1,600

4,537

x3,20

TJB

0,278

1,090

0,213

1,303

3,720

x3,41

BATB

0,269

1,143

0,139

1,282

3,568

x3,12

Aladdin

0,078

0,471

0,092

0,563

2,450

x5,20

Dumbo

0,085

0,470

0,081

0,551

2,400

x5,11

Maleficent

0,086

0,548

0,080

0,628

2,047

x3,74

Cinderella

0,086

0,573

0,063

0,636

1,722

x3,01

OZ

0,124

0,633

0,155

0,788

1,590

x2,51

MP

0,044

0,293

0,097

0,390

1,535

x5,24

Nutcracker

0,049

0,229

0,026

0,255

0,802

x3,50

 

Dropping less than 50% from OW and it can already top AiW and become the biggest of them... I don't think I get carried away saying that it won't go below 7,5M ($57M).

SW9 really needs to be worried now it cannot be the biggest movie of 2019 in France...

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 4
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



3 hours ago, Aristis said:

Huge OWeek for TLK! 3,253M

 

 

 

 

OD

 

 

OW

 

 

Midweek

 

 

OWeek

 

 

Total

 

 

Multipler

 

 

TLK

 

 

0,630

 

 

2,559

 

 

0,694

 

 

3,253

 

 

7,500

 

 

x2,93

 

 

Alice

 

 

0,252

 

 

1,418

 

 

0,182

 

 

1,600

 

 

4,537

 

 

x3,20

 

 

TJB

 

 

0,278

 

 

1,090

 

 

0,213

 

 

1,303

 

 

3,720

 

 

x3,41

 

 

BATB

 

 

0,269

 

 

1,143

 

 

0,139

 

 

1,282

 

 

3,568

 

 

x3,12

 

 

Aladdin

 

 

0,078

 

 

0,471

 

 

0,092

 

 

0,563

 

 

2,450

 

 

x5,20

 

 

Dumbo

 

 

0,085

 

 

0,470

 

 

0,081

 

 

0,551

 

 

2,400

 

 

x5,11

 

 

Maleficent

 

 

0,086

 

 

0,548

 

 

0,080

 

 

0,628

 

 

2,047

 

 

x3,74

 

 

Cinderella

 

 

0,086

 

 

0,573

 

 

0,063

 

 

0,636

 

 

1,722

 

 

x3,01

 

 

OZ

 

 

0,124

 

 

0,633

 

 

0,155

 

 

0,788

 

 

1,590

 

 

x2,51

 

 

MP

 

 

0,044

 

 

0,293

 

 

0,097

 

 

0,390

 

 

1,535

 

 

x5,24

 

 

Nutcracker

 

 

0,049

 

 

0,229

 

 

0,026

 

 

0,255

 

 

0,802

 

 

x3,50

 

 

 

Dropping less than 50% from OW and it can already top AiW and become the biggest of them... I don't think I get carried away saying that it won't go below 7,5M ($57M).

SW9 really needs to be worried now it cannot be the biggest movie of 2019 in France...

whats the maximum total that lion king can do ? in $ ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites



8 hours ago, john2000 said:

whats the maximum total that lion king can do ? in $ ?

Well, maximum is very hard to say (especially for me as I'm very cautious with predictions...) but I'd say it's likely to fall between 7,5M and 8M (which would be BATB multipler) and therefore $57M to $61M, and a very high end being around 8,5M (with TJB multipler TLK would get to 8,7M) and around $65M.

 

But, at least until after the 2nd WE, I'm staying around 7,5M for it.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



There's a long story of me underestimating TLK :D

Spoiler

 

TLK defeated my expectations - again (after OD [maybe 350k? 630k!], OW [if it does great 2,25M? 2,559M!], OWeek [3M+? 3,25M!] the third time now...

 

According to Deadline it's at $40,1M. I said if it drops less than 50% it could reach 4,5M+ ($34M) and hoped it may get to 4,75M and $36M.

 

 

Long story short: $40,1M which should mean around 5,2M+ admissions (ifI don't underestimate it again...). And -32%, what Deadline reports, would mean 1,74M 2nd WE and around 5M. Just huge... :o

  • Like 3
  • Astonished 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



7 minutes ago, Aristis said:

There's a long story of me underestimating TLK :D

  Hide contents

 

TLK defeated my expectations - again (after OD [maybe 350k? 630k!], OW [if it does great 2,25M? 2,559M!], OWeek [3M+? 3,25M!] the third time now...

 

According to Deadline it's at $40,1M. I said if it drops less than 50% it could reach 4,5M+ ($34M) and hoped it may get to 4,75M and $36M.

 

 

Long story short: $40,1M which should mean around 5,2M+ admissions (ifI don't underestimate it again...). And -32%, what Deadline reports, would mean 1,74M 2nd WE and around 5M. Just huge... :o

 

Could be the biggest movie of the year in France, no? O/U $70m?

Link to comment
Share on other sites



20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Could be the biggest movie of the year in France, no? O/U $70m?

SW9 is probably the only contender that could top it (SW7 10,31M, SW8 7,08M). But as things develop I start to think TLK becomes to big to be passed... 8,5M+ and $65M+ seem realistic.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Astonished 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.