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So I went back and looked at Dory's and I2 presalles.

 

FD: 43k in ps's at midnight before release.

OD: 77k => OW 1.015m

 

I2: 73k in ps's at midnight before release. 

OD 122.6k => OW 1.364m

 

FD did 1.79 times it's PS on OD and 23.6 times it's PS's (MN before release) over it's OW.

I2 did 1.68 times it's PS on OD and 18.7  times it's ps's over it's OW.

 

I2 had 34k in presales at T-1 at MN. so TS4 if already over that on monday. If we compare monday to monday.  FD had only 14k. Because Toystory 4 gets released on Thursday it's a strange situation, we can't 1 on 1 compare it's presalles with I2 or FD because family movies see big increases for presalles for the weekend, dory's ps's at wednesday midnight (after OD) were 68k thats an increase of 58% and it went on to increase to 105k on thursday MN and 182k on Friday MN.

 

So I am going to try to make a educated guess at how this might play out. At first we could just look at ps's day to day but both Dory and I2 saw a big increase in PS (% wise) for it's OD so this would skew the Tuesday to Tuesday comparison a bit. also ps's get more commen every year so especially compared to dory it's going to play more ps heavy. At last we have only 4 days instead of 5 days so a worse multiplier. 

 

TS4 tuesday ps's => 72k, Wednesday PS's => 140k. I would guess a 155k Thursday, a 205k friday, 540k sat and a 535k sunday.

So an OW of  1.435m admision. Ps's (MN before release) multi of 10.25 (a lot less but explained by the reasons above). I would say the prospect for TS4 is looking very good atm. I would think I2 thursday to sunday OW numbers are the floor for TS4 at this point. 

 

Aladins ps's are still going very strong so don't expect it to dip to hard this weekend. 

 

 

 

Edited by pepsa
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Aladdin Monday
05-27 109,658
06-03 81,615
06-10 109,402
06-17 131,239

 

KOBIS presale

1. Aladdin 94k

2. TS4 54k

3. Parasite 27k

4. Long live the king 17k

5. MIB 10k

 

CGV 15:20

1. Aladdin 47k

2. Parsite 27k

3. MIB 9.7k

 

Lion King release date July.17 (Wed)

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1 hour ago, Omni said:

Great analysis...but, just out of curiosity...why do you keep calling her Dorry? :sweat:

Hahahaha, I didn't even know it was Dory 😱 

So my reason is probably because I am stupid :hahaha:

Thanks a lot for letting me know Omni! I will edit my post. 

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Aladin: 132k

Parasite: 102.2k 

 

The strange thing is Parasite still has more screens than Aladin. 30.1% to 28.7% whilst Aladin is doing 28% more buisness. 

Hopefully this means Aladin won't lose many screens when new movies open. It's PTA is by far the highest amongst the top movies. 

 

109K ps's for Aladin, great as always

76k ps's for TS4, very good increase for TS4 once again, yesterday it had 38.4k, so it increased 98% today. Expecting it to go over 145k tomorrow (would be a 90% increase) but it woudn't be suprising if it doubled tomorrow. 

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Things to watch out for: (For TS4)

 

If ps's tomorrow go over 165k it's a sign of a break out.

Staying almost flat or flat on sunday would be sign of good legs (max - 5%). 

An increase on sunday would mean a break out especially if it's more than 5%.

 

Other important factors are a good score (obviously) good wom.

Finding a female audience (most of the time better legs) and it has to play to adults as well. 

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Aladdin Tuesday
05-28 108,339
06-04 84,798
06-11 104,444
06-18 132,547

 

Aladdin Wed
05-29 245,992 *Culture day
06-05 113,165 
06-12 102,438
06-19 +135k?

 

CGV 16:20
1. Aladdin 57k 
2. Long Live The King 30k
3. Parasite 29k
4. MIB 7.6k

 

KOBIS presale 16:25
1. Aladdin 122k
2. TS4 105k
3. Long live~ 33k
4. Parasite 28k
5. MIB 7k

 

so Aladdin will be like 400k with today, and with tomorrow +500k ish. really amazing.

Mon ~ Thu 

05.27~30 - 538,951 *1 Culture day
06.03~06 - 653,137 *1 Holiday     
06.10~13 - 419,902
06.17~20 - 500k?

Edited by imbruglia
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As expected ps's for TS4 increased 91%, to 146k this double I2's presales before it's release.  (Still a Thursday vs Wednesday start).

So this seem very promissing. Ps's are great for an animation now we have to wait how the WoM is with the public (the most important factor, look at crazy runs like IO, Frozen or more recent Aladin). All we can say is TS4 is set up for succes, now it has to bring it home.

 

Aladin did: 137k 

Aladin again increased over Tuesday, no signs of slowing down. Aladins ps's are up from last weeks presalles so thats a very good sign. 

Aladin only lost 10% of it's screenings to the new movie (Long live the king) that opened to 117k.

 

Parasite got a bigger screen loss of about 20% and id 92k admission today (down 10%). MIB lost 36% of it's screens and lost 34% of it's buisness and ended up with 26k today. 

All other hold overs are below 10k. 

 

TS4 will probably open on a decent amount of screens screenings, Aladn is pretty safe from the hit, it has the most seats sold. Parasite will probably be the biggest victim of TS4 release. It might dip 20% + tomorrow. Obviously MIB4 will take a big hit but it's already at 26k so it's almost done anyway.

 

TS4 shoul be aiming for over 160k tomorrow, it's CGV starts with 36k (so about 72k in presalles for Tomorrow) let's see how good walk ups are. 

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Wednesday 6-19 boxoffice

1. Aladdin - 136,660 (5,726,242)
2. Long Live The King - 117,540
3. Parasite - 92,158 (8,642,806)
4. MIB - 26,084 (746,006)

 

KOBIS presale 16:20
1. TS4 169k
2. Aladdin 157k
3. Parasite 31k
4. Long Live The King 30k
5. MIB 6.7k

 

CGV 16:20
1. TS4 57k
2. Aladdin 51k
3. Parasite 26k
4. Long Live TheKing 26k
5. MIB 3.5k

 

 

Edited by imbruglia
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2 hours ago, imbruglia said:

Wednesday 6-19 boxoffice

1. Aladdin - 136,660 (5,726,242)
2. Long Live The King - 117,540
3. Parasite - 92,158 (8,642,806)
4. MIB - 26,084 (746,006)

 

KOBIS presale 16:20
1. TS4 169k
2. Aladdin 157k
3. Parasite 31k
4. Long Live The King 30k
5. MIB 6.7k

 

CGV 16:20
1. TS4 57k
2. Aladdin 51k
3. Parasite 26k
4. Long Live TheKing 26k
5. MIB 3.5k

 

 

Higher for Aladdin when compare to last week right? 

 

Crazy!

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