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15 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I believe Summer school holidays til mid-August will help mid-week gross

I was pretty sure that they started a week or two ago already, but something strange does seem to be going on today. TLK looks like it may increase by like 10% from last Mon, and Aladdin...

 

For now things look headed toward a 40-50% increase from last Mon, so there’s gotta be something strange going on after all. I’m excited, so I’ll update hourly.  

 

13:20 ~105k  

14:20 ~102k

15:20 ~98k (+30%) returning to normalcy a bit, but still seems like there must be something notable affecting today   

 

16:20 Okay, can now say pretty confidently that 23:20 will basically be 50k, which means probably 96-99k admits. 

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Last Monday:

Spoiler
 
Jul 22, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $1,221,806
($18,613,715)
170,260
(2,445,827)
1,699 50.02%
2 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $511,514
($79,369,542)
75,168
(11,018,637)
876 20.94%
3 Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home

U.S. 

Jul 02, 2019 $370,362
($54,940,235)
54,293
(7,553,346)
834 15.16%
4 Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4

U.S. 

Jun 20, 2019 $77,314
($23,594,547)
11,417
(3,299,544)
358 3.16%
5 PARASITE

PARASITE

South Korea 

May 30, 2019 $51,453
($71,953,006)
7,503
(10,007,817)
205 2.1%

And today (these early numbers will increase ~2% for many movies):

Jul 29, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $1,081,837
($29,138,563)
158,317
(3,865,041)
1,277 33.22%
2 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $640,430
($84,703,219)
95,318
(11,757,287)
908 19.67%
3 The King's Letters

The King's Letters

South Korea 

Jul 24, 2019 $418,265
($5,769,800)
63,245
(818,974)
898 12.84%
4 Red Shoes

Red Shoes

South Korea 

Jul 25, 2019 $343,793
($1,777,726)
55,103
(264,857)
636 10.55%
5 Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home

U.S. 

Jul 02, 2019 $248,498
($57,491,057)
36,571
(7,909,257)
632 7.63%
6 Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Japan 

Jul 24, 2019 $100,745
($1,238,736)
15,521
(183,286)
506 3.09%
7 LONG SHOT

LONG SHOT

U.S. 

Jul 24, 2019 $105,963
($1,186,112)
15,099
(157,885)
443 3.25%
8 Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4

U.S. 

Jun 20, 2019 $69,608
($24,060,192)
10,554
(3,366,110)
184 2.13%
9 The Battle: Roar to Victory

The Battle: Roar to Victory

South Korea 

Aug 07, 2019 $52,463
($52,463)
6,782
(6,782)
30 1.61%
10 PARASITE

PARASITE

South Korea 

May 30, 2019 $35,374
($72,226,886)
5,047
(10,045,886)
111 1.08%

 

 

Parasite -33%, TS4 - ~5%, FFH -30%, TLK - ~4%... Aladdin +~29%  😮   

 

Tues PS 17k, should be about flat or slight increase.

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Looks like a 1-3% drop, final CGV should be 49k as opposed to 50k yesterday.    

 

Predicting final numbers is easy with this one basic trick: on Mon-Thurs &Sat, 16:20 is halfway between 12:20 and 23:20   

 

Friday nights are stronger, add a bit more. Sunday mornings/afternoons are stronger, add a bit less. Part of OW and nights are stronger as well. Will only work for weekdays until school resumes, I assume.   

 

Expecting to pass 12M tomorrow, but only just barely.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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First estimates today:  

Jul 30, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $1,003,377
($30,241,601)
147,380
(4,014,231)
1,307 30.96%
2 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $638,760
($85,601,903)
95,349
(11,853,901)
931 19.71%
3 Red Shoes

Red Shoes

South Korea 

Jul 25, 2019 $374,305
($2,157,312)
60,215
(325,071)
673 11.55%
4 The King's Letters

The King's Letters

South Korea 

Jul 24, 2019 $390,113
($6,183,664)
59,299
(879,229)
867 12.04%
5 Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home

U.S. 

Jul 02, 2019 $254,475
($57,922,189)
37,718
(7,947,862)
638 7.85%
6 EXIT

EXIT

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $107,400
($254,244)
17,516
(38,940)
100 3.31%
7 Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Japan 

Jul 24, 2019 $102,866
($1,346,091)
15,857
(199,258)
500 3.17%
8 LONG SHOT

LONG SHOT

U.S. 

Jul 24, 2019 $104,233
($1,299,083)
14,863
(173,486)
443 3.21%
9 Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4

U.S. 

Jun 20, 2019 $71,822
($24,203,671)
10,932
(3,377,087)
201 2.21%

Aladdin was able to keep flat at final CGV after all, with this number being up 31 people vs yesterday first numbers. Should settle around high 96s, same as yesterday, +30% weekly. Will edit Wed PS data in 20 mins

 

Wed PS (culture day):  

EXIT 85k (97% Egg) (OD)

The Divine Fury 68k (91% Egg) (OD)

SLOP2 43k (OD)

TLK 31k

Aladdin 25k   

 

Aladdin is 145k away from 12M, probably looking at a day in 140s or so. Maybe lower if I’m underestimating the openers.

 

 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

First estimates today:  

Jul 30, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $1,003,377
($30,241,601)
147,380
(4,014,231)
1,307 30.96%
2 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $638,760
($85,601,903)
95,349
(11,853,901)
931 19.71%
3 Red Shoes

Red Shoes

South Korea 

Jul 25, 2019 $374,305
($2,157,312)
60,215
(325,071)
673 11.55%
4 The King's Letters

The King's Letters

South Korea 

Jul 24, 2019 $390,113
($6,183,664)
59,299
(879,229)
867 12.04%
5 Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home

U.S. 

Jul 02, 2019 $254,475
($57,922,189)
37,718
(7,947,862)
638 7.85%
6 EXIT

EXIT

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $107,400
($254,244)
17,516
(38,940)
100 3.31%
7 Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire

Japan 

Jul 24, 2019 $102,866
($1,346,091)
15,857
(199,258)
500 3.17%
8 LONG SHOT

LONG SHOT

U.S. 

Jul 24, 2019 $104,233
($1,299,083)
14,863
(173,486)
443 3.21%
9 Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4

U.S. 

Jun 20, 2019 $71,822
($24,203,671)
10,932
(3,377,087)
201 2.21%

Aladdin was able to keep flat at final CGV after all, with this number being up 31 people vs yesterday first numbers. Should settle around high 96s, same as yesterday, +30% weekly. Will edit Wed PS data in 20 mins

 

Wed PS (culture day):  

EXIT 85k (97% Egg) (OD)

The Divine Fury 68k (91% Egg) (OD)

SLOP2 43k (OD)

TLK 31k

Aladdin 25k   

 

Aladdin is 145k away from 12M, probably looking at a day in 140s or so. Maybe lower if I’m underestimating the openers.

 

 

What does toe Egg % mean for EXIT and THE DIVINE FURY? 

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25 minutes ago, Somoset said:

What does toe Egg % mean for EXIT and THE DIVINE FURY? 

CGV Egg is the CGV audience rating metric. Somewhat like Maoyan, RT audience, etc.     

 

For just a brief amount of context from recent movies:   

Aladdin 98

TS4 98

Endgame 97

FFH 96

Parasite 94

TLK 92   

 

So EXIT’s score is pretty good, but the movies opening today are all based on a pretty small sample still and could move around a bit.

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30 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

CGV Egg is the CGV audience rating metric. Somewhat like Maoyan, RT audience, etc.     

 

For just a brief amount of context from recent movies:   

Aladdin 98

TS4 98

Endgame 97

FFH 96

Parasite 94

TLK 92   

 

So EXIT’s score is pretty good, but the movies opening today are all based on a pretty small sample still and could move around a bit.

Thanks for the explanation! That's pretty cool. Do you have a link to their official site? 

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16 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Aladdin is 145k away from 12M, probably looking at a day in 140s or so. Maybe lower if I’m underestimating the openers.

Big time underestimated their impact, 😅. The 3 big openers may well crack 1M admits combined today. Culture day is insulating the hit a bit, but it seems like tomorrow and the weekend could be brutal for the holdovers. Current CGV egg:  

EXIT 96

The Divine Fury 88

SLOP2 97   

 

12:20 - 16:20 - projected final CGV 

EXIT 119 ; 172 ; 225-238
The Divine Fury 89 ; 119 ; 149-156
SLOP2 60 ; 75 ; 90-94
TLK 43 ; 53 ; 63-67  
Aladdin 33 ; 40 ; 47-49

 

I’d guess upper end of those ranges for openers (especially SLOP) and lower end for holdovers (so roughly -6% from yesterday for Aladdin and -13% TLK), but it’s also possible that Culture Day changes the afternoon vs night balance entirely 🤷‍♂️

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Well today was a valuable learning experience for me. Next Culture Day should run a bit more smoothly. 

 

 
Jul 31, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 EXIT

EXIT

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $2,603,021
($2,858,603)
478,744
(517,963)
1,314 36.27%
2 The Divine Fury

The Divine Fury

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $1,939,311
($2,136,481)
372,389
(398,610)
1,394 27.02%
3 The Secret Life of Pets 2

The Secret Life of Pets 2

U.S. 

Jul 31, 2019 $969,827
($1,009,833)
175,679
(181,217)
806 13.51%
4 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $680,634
($30,882,189)
125,432
(4,141,160)
759 9.48%
5 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $456,717
($85,923,223)
79,901
(11,935,141)
563 6.36%
6 Red Shoes

Red Shoes

South Korea 

Jul 25, 2019 $222,817
($2,376,463)
37,400
(362,469)
420 3.1%
7 The King's Letters

The King's Letters

South Korea 

Jul 24, 2019 $102,406
($6,281,492)
20,103
(900,154)
395 1.42%
8 Spider-Man: Far From Home

Spider-Man: Far From Home

U.S. 

Jul 02, 2019 $61,413
($57,892,266)
10,909
(7,959,714)
179 0.85%

 

 

The openers did hit over 1M between them, Aladdin and TLK down by some -15%, and other holdovers got absolutely hammered. Discount tickets just can’t compensate for this degree of new competition.   

 

Thu PS Aladdin and TLK both 15k. Normally that would portend something like 95k admits, but if same-day business is as low a % of PS as today would be more like 55k. Not sure what to expect there, but the next 5 days or so are critical in its quest for #2 or #1 HW rank.

 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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12:20 - 16:20 - projected final CGV 

 

EXIT 68 ; 119 ; ~170-185

TDF  25 ; 43 ; ~61-66

SLoP2 37 ; 49 ; ~55-62

TLK 26 ; 35 ; ~42-45

Aladdin 23 ; 30 ; ~ 35-38    

 

So vs the culture day OD yesterday, looking roughly:  

EXIT -23%  

TDF -58%  

SLoP2 -30%

TLK -25%

Aladdin -18%    

 

TDF is now down to 86% Egg, seems rather bad to me.    

 

Aladdin will be slightly down from last Thursday, but probably up a bit from 2 Thursdays ago when TLK was opening. And it should end *today* with very close to 12M. Early guess weekend will be about 450, but it’s uncertain exactly how much it can rebound from the triple whammy of openers.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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7 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

12:20 - 16:20 - projected final CGV 

 

EXIT 68 ; 119 ; ~170-185 185

TDF  25 ; 43 ; ~61-66 67

SLoP2 37 ; 49 ; ~55-62 53

TLK 26 ; 35 ; ~42-45 42

Aladdin 23 ; 30 ; ~ 35-38  37

Actual final CGV in bold.    

 

EXIT indeed seems to be having a really nice debut. Guessing Aladdin above TLK for the weekend, and above Slop+TDF not that long after.   

Aug 01, 2019
 
 
Rank Title Release Date Daily Gross
(Total)
Admissions
(Total)
Number of Screens Revenue Share
1 EXIT

EXIT

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $2,601,686
($5,523,923)
380,811
(910,036)
1,322 44.05%
2 The Divine Fury

The Divine Fury

South Korea 

Jul 31, 2019 $1,088,254
($3,267,768)
161,196
(567,513)
1,295 18.42%
3 The Secret Life of Pets 2

The Secret Life of Pets 2

U.S. 

Jul 31, 2019 $722,982
($1,729,606)
115,692
(297,163)
808 12.24%
4 The Lion King

The Lion King

U.S. 

Jul 17, 2019 $564,798
($31,296,613)
87,325
(4,229,266)
811 9.56%
5 Aladdin

Aladdin

U.S. 

May 23, 2019 $427,863
($85,923,725)
64,208
(12,000,240)
601 7.24%
6 Red Shoes

Red Shoes

South Korea 

Jul 25, 2019 $229,202
($2,593,587)
37,467
(399,918)
448 3.88%

 

12M by the skin of its teeth!   

 

I’m noticed Aladdin’s CGV ratio went from like 50% before to 55% yesterday and today. Maybe some smaller non-CGV theaters lost it entirely with the new openers?  

 

Fri CGV PS:

EXIT 46k

SLOP2 18k

Aladdin 15k

TDF 13k

TLK 13k

Edited by Thanos Legion
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Aladdin still needs roughly 2M admissions to beat AEG. With the performance by new openers, it needs to survive this wk. If it can chances go up dramatically. Right now it's  50/50 of getting the record. Regardless, absolutely phenomenal performance in SK, some of the best legs ever in SK!!!!

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