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Presale for tomorrow in cgv seems very low right ? Maybe only 60-70k for tomorrow. More on the weekend maybe ?

 

If it gets 137k, 60k, 90k, 200k and 190k like MI:6 multiplier for first five days then only $5.2m + $800k for preview. So $6m then. Really hope it can increase more on the weekend.

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Looking at some summer culture day 100k+ openers from 2019-2015, 50%+ Thursday drop would be quite unprecedented for a movie with good reception. Clearly related to the external factors imbruglia brought up. But to the extent those affect Th, will probably also affect FSS.
 

Based on this either culture day Openers, MI:6, MI:5, and Dunkirk I think I’ll expect a 5-7x Th:FSS, adding 330-500 for a ~500-650k 5-day, $3.5-$5M 5-day (without previews).

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the reactions are surprisingly high so far

 

CGV - 92% egg ( 6.8k reviews)

Megabox - 8.7 ( 1.2k reviews)

 

previous..

The Dark Knight 99% (4.1k reivews)
Inception 99% (7.5k reviews)
Dark Knight Rises 98% (5.5k reviews)
Interstellar 94% (18k reviews)
Dunkirk 93% (73k reviews)

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On 7/28/2020 at 2:42 PM, imbruglia said:

Christopher Nolan Films

Memento(2000) 197,466 *Seoul only
Insomnia(2002) 194,724 Seoul only
Batman Begins(2005) 921,300 
The Prestige(2006) 646,184
The Dark Knight(2008) 4,224,525
Inception(2010) 5,945,314
The Dark Knight Rises(2012) 6,428,555
Interstellar(2014) 10,309,432
Dunkirk(2017) 2,793,042


Inception
07/21 - 149,246
07/22 - 152,808
07/23 - 192,350
07/24 - 379,074
07/25 - 365,085
first week: 1,238,624

 

Dunkirk 
07/20 - 224,242
07/21 - 248,042    
07/22 - 460,182
07/23 - 411,132    
first week: 1,349,619

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35 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

the reactions are surprisingly high so far

 

CGV - 92% egg ( 6.8k reviews)

Megabox - 8.7 ( 1.2k reviews)

 

previous..

The Dark Knight 99% (4.1k reivews)
Inception 99% (7.5k reviews)
Dark Knight Rises 98% (5.5k reviews)
Interstellar 94% (18k reviews)
Dunkirk 93% (73k reviews)

how pre sales are looking ?

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4 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Looking at some summer culture day 100k+ openers from 2019-2015, 50%+ Thursday drop would be quite unprecedented for a movie with good reception. Clearly related to the external factors imbruglia brought up. But to the extent those affect Th, will probably also affect FSS.
 

Based on this either culture day Openers, MI:6, MI:5, and Dunkirk I think I’ll expect a 5-7x Th:FSS, adding 330-500 for a ~500-650k 5-day, $3.5-$5M 5-day (without previews).

$ 4m by Sunday? Look great. Dunkirk made $ 22m lifetime under normal circumstances. Tenet making $ 4m 5-day + previews even with the government considering closing cinemas on SK this weekend is nothing but great!

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10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I won't be looking at Dunkirk for TENET TBH. The better comp would be Inception & Interstellar, both of which are potential $90-100mn grosser today.

 

Korea was supposed to be huge for this one.

There was no guarantee that Tenet would replicate the success of Interestellar or Inception. If Nolan's name was enough, Dunkirk would have made well over $ 22m... And making $ 70m + in South Korea is not as simple as it sounds.

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16 minutes ago, Litio said:

There was no guarantee that Tenet would replicate the success of Interestellar or Inception. If Nolan's name was enough, Dunkirk would have made well over $ 22m... And making $ 70m + in South Korea is not as simple as it sounds.

Dunkirk was a WW2 movie though. Interstellar, Inception, and this would translate way better to Asian audiences than a film like Dunkirk would. And it was looking at a much bigger opening before the resurgence. 

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1 minute ago, MrPink said:

Even a few short weeks ago I was hoping Tenet could do 30-40m in SK. It is what it is.

it may still do especially if the cases decline again, we will just have to wait and see, tenet could have much better legs than the usual

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19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Dunkirk was a WW2 movie though. Interstellar, Inception, and this would translate way better to Asian audiences than a film like Dunkirk would. And it was looking at a much bigger opening before the resurgence. 

Comparisons to these films are useless. Warner didn't release Tenet in the current situation expecting it to do the same as films like Interestellar and Inception. Isn't that exactly why Warner demanded a higher percentage at the box office?
We also don't know how the legs will behave. Weren't theaters in SK supposed to be closed this week?

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1 minute ago, Litio said:

Comparisons to these films are useless. Warner didn't release Tenet in the current situation expecting it to do the same as films like Interestellar and Inception. Isn't that exactly why Warner demanded a higher percentage at the box office?
We also don't know how the legs will behave. Weren't theaters in SK supposed to be closed this week?

Yes and we aren't really comparing with those films now. Its just that "see Dunkirk did only 22mn" is not really a good case to be made.

 

e.g. Endgame opened to 200mn in US, that would have been great number in isolation, but anyone trying to justify saying Captain Marvel did only 153mn, so 200 for Endgame is great won't be a good justification.

 

Yeah Warner didn't expect that, neither any of us. That's why before latest COVID insurgence expectations were $40mn, not $90mn.

 

South Korea can have legs, but WOM is not that great as yet. Yeah it can rebound from external factor like COVID and typhoon, but that's always case of Will it? than When?.

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37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yes and we aren't really comparing with those films now. Its just that "see Dunkirk did only 22mn" is not really a good case to be made.

 

e.g. Endgame opened to 200mn in US, that would have been great number in isolation, but anyone trying to justify saying Captain Marvel did only 153mn, so 200 for Endgame is great won't be a good justification.

 

Yeah Warner didn't expect that, neither any of us. That's why before latest COVID insurgence expectations were $40mn, not $90mn.

 

South Korea can have legs, but WOM is not that great as yet. Yeah it can rebound from external factor like COVID and typhoon, but that's always case of Will it? than When?.

If I'm not mistaken, someone here was predicting a larger opening than Interstellar based on pre-sales, even with the pandemic going on. It seems absurd to imagine that Tenet would open with more than Insterstellar in the current situation. Pre-sales during the pandemic will not behave as they used to. Things to consider. If expectations were not so high (unduly), that number that Tenet is doing would not be a surprise. Legs in the last few weeks were good, but we will have to wait and see.

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6 minutes ago, Litio said:

If I'm not mistaken, someone here was predicting a larger opening than Interstellar based on pre-sales, even with the pandemic going on

I guess that someone here would be me. Interstellar had 4 days weekend of $13.5mn with 4.75k shows a day. 

 

TENET with 9k shows a day for 5 days doing around same wasn't all that crazy with around 10-15% inflation.

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