South Korea Box Office

[Legion Again]

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$1,941,512 ($41,960,019)	286,731 (5,997,316)	1,923	63.58%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$390,415 ($964,672)	58,752 (170,386)	844	12.78%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$256,830 ($14,548,940)	38,714 (2,034,108)	683	8.41%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$98,282 ($248,976)	14,597 (41,785)	589	3.21%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$47,677 ($118,485)	7,277 (19,933)	146	1.56%

 

Juuuust under 6M cume. 53% weekly drop, but it’s dropping from OD so I wouldn’t read much into that. Let’s see the weekly drops for the next 3 days instead.   
 

Fri CGV PS 85k, down 35%. But usual patterns for 2nd Fri PSm is about +20% from first Fri PSm for big movies in our sheet. That would give 2.75 PSm, 234 final CGV, about 488k day for just 22% weekly drop. 😮 

 

Perhaps a bit too good to be true (although, +70% from Thurs for a very weekend heavy movie on a schoolweek does make sense compared to Aladdin +64%...) so I’ll manually go down a bit and say 205 final CGV for 430k admits and a 33% weekly drop. Either way we are cooking with gasoline.

 

Also banked up 635k on KOBIS as the before Fri number. Pepsa goal beat 25 hours in advance. About 450k of those are for SS already

Edited November 28, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

39 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$1,941,512 ($41,960,019)	286,731 (5,997,316)	1,923	63.58%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$390,415 ($964,672)	58,752 (170,386)	844	12.78%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$256,830 ($14,548,940)	38,714 (2,034,108)	683	8.41%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$98,282 ($248,976)	14,597 (41,785)	589	3.21%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$47,677 ($118,485)	7,277 (19,933)	146	1.56%

 

Juuuust under 6M cume. 53% weekly drop, but it’s dropping from OD so I wouldn’t read much into that. Let’s see the weekly drops for the next 3 days instead.   
 

Fri CGV PS 85k, down 35%. But usual patterns for 2nd Fri PSm is about +20% from first Fri PSm for big movies in our sheet. That would give 2.75 PSm, 234 final CGV, about 488k day for just 22% weekly drop. 😮 

 

Perhaps a bit too good to be true (although, +70% from Thurs for a very weekend heavy movie on a schoolweek does make sense compared to Aladdin +64%...) so I’ll manually go down a bit and say 205 final CGV for 430k admits and a 33% weekly drop. Either way we are cooking with gasoline.

 

Also banked up 635k on KOBIS as the before Fri number. Pepsa goal beat 25 hours in advance. About 450k of those are for SS already

So its 2nd weekend doesnt seem to drop much? 

[pepsa]

47 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$1,941,512 ($41,960,019)	286,731 (5,997,316)	1,923	63.58%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$390,415 ($964,672)	58,752 (170,386)	844	12.78%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$256,830 ($14,548,940)	38,714 (2,034,108)	683	8.41%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$98,282 ($248,976)	14,597 (41,785)	589	3.21%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$47,677 ($118,485)	7,277 (19,933)	146	1.56%

 

Juuuust under 6M cume. 53% weekly drop, but it’s dropping from OD so I wouldn’t read much into that. Let’s see the weekly drops for the next 3 days instead.   
 

Fri CGV PS 85k, down 35%. But usual patterns for 2nd Fri PSm is about +20% from first Fri PSm for big movies in our sheet. That would give 2.75 PSm, 234 final CGV, about 488k day for just 22% weekly drop. 😮 

 

Perhaps a bit too good to be true (although, +70% from Thurs for a very weekend heavy movie on a schoolweek does make sense compared to Aladdin +64%...) so I’ll manually go down a bit and say 205 final CGV for 430k admits and a 33% weekly drop. Either way we are cooking with gasoline.

 

Also banked up 635k on KOBIS as the before Fri number. Pepsa goal beat 25 hours in advance. About 450k of those are for SS already

Great analysis as always

 

7 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

So its 2nd weekend doesnt seem to drop much? 

It won't

That said we have to be very carefull with being super positive about a 30% drop on second weekend, most movies in SK have great second weekend drops, the 3rd 4th weekend ones are where the big drops come in. If fronzen doesn't drop hard on it's 3/4 weekend it would indicate that WoM is very very good.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

So its 2nd weekend doesnt seem to drop much? 

Well, 2nd Friday looks like it will be a small drop. We can’t see anything directly for Sat or Sun, but digging around in the thread I see that we estimated 900k tickets for Sat+Sun same time a week ago, so currently is about half that. 
 

On 11/21/2019 at 10:51 AM, Arendelle Legion said:

Already over 900k presales lurking in Sat+Sun. Those should do huge business, perhaps 2nd only Endgame among HW. 

Let’s I think it’s reasonable to expect better final day or 2 PS growth for 2nd weekend, so for very tentative projection let’s say 60% of last SS PS. That’d give 262k CGV PS on Sat, 245k Sun. Sat PSm should bump around 20%, so call it 540k final CGV, 1.17M admits (-30%). Sun PSm bump maybe 24%, call it 518 final CGV, 1.115M admits (-27%). FSS 2.77M, down 28% from 3.83M.   
 

This is all very preliminary, and the 2nd Sat and Sun sizes there almost fail a basic common sense check (for instance, I have F2 2nd Sunday just slightly edging out IW’s first Sun here, so I think it’d be the 3rd largest HW Sun ever). So I’d guess maybe more like -35% for 2.5M admits. Still would be a crazy 2nd weekend, beating Endgame handily. Never tried to extrapolate dailies so far ahead, let’s see how close this gets.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Legion Again]

On 11/28/2019 at 10:48 AM, Arendelle Legion said:

I’ll manually go down a bit and say 205 final CGV for 430k admits and a 33% weekly drop.

😎 (though 210 final CGV)

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$3,120,083 ($45,052,083)	429,569 (6,427,738)	1,980	70.77%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$479,870 ($1,444,745)	66,448 (236,982)	828	10.88%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$347,773 ($14,885,147)	48,722 (2,082,953)	727	7.88%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$121,350 ($370,383)	16,690 (58,515)	601	2.75%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$56,935 ($175,335)	7,924 (27,859)	144	1.29%

(Took KOBIS numbers for F2, should be more accurate already. Rest are KOBIZ, will rise more)   
 

PSm rose just 8% from last weekend, so adjusting my PSm growth expectations to 10% Sat and 12% Sun for now.   
 

Sat CGV PS coming in above my rough estimate with a crazy 289k, down just 34% from last Sat and up 12% from Endgame’s 2nd Sat. Times 1.9 gives 545k final CGV, about 1.18M admits. Not sure if any 2nd weekend has seen 1M admit day before, but it’s very safe here as even the pessimistic PSm gives 500k CGV. 
 

KOBIS currently is 816k, so estimating 190k for Sun forward. Same point in time last week was 480k, so now 40% as much. I will hold forecasted Sun CGV PS to 245k and forecasted Sun to 1M.

Edited November 29, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[danhtruong5]

This friday: $3.12M (-25.7% from last friday opening day $4.2M).

[danhtruong5]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

😎 (though 210 final CGV)

1		Frozen 2 U.S.	Nov 21, 2019	$3,120,083 ($45,052,083)	429,569 (6,427,738)	1,980	70.77%
2		Bring Me Home South Korea	Nov 27, 2019	$479,870 ($1,444,745)	66,448 (236,982)	828	10.88%
3		BLACK MONEY South Korea	Nov 13, 2019	$347,773 ($14,885,147)	48,722 (2,082,953)	727	7.88%
4		CRAWL U.S.	Nov 27, 2019	$121,350 ($370,383)	16,690 (58,515)	601	2.75%
5		Love at Second Sight Belgium,France	Nov 27, 2019	$56,935 ($175,335)	7,924 (27,859)	144	1.29%

(Took KOBIS numbers for F2, should be more accurate already. Rest are KOBIZ, will rise more)   
 

PSm rose just 8% from last weekend, so adjusting my PSm growth expectations to 10% Sat and 12% Sun for now.   
 

Sat CGV PS coming in above my rough estimate with a crazy 289k, down just 34% from last Sat and up 12% from Endgame’s 2nd Sat. Times 1.9 gives 545k final CGV, about 1.18M admits. Not sure if any 2nd weekend has seen 1M admit day before, but it’s very safe here as even the maximally pessimistic PSm gives 500k CGV. 
 

KOBIS currently is 816k, so estimating 190k for Sun forward. Same point in time last week was 480k, so now 40% as much. I will hold forecasted Sun CGV PS to 245k and forecasted Sun to 1M.

Is this a good sign for it? Better drop in 2nd weekend comparing to other big movies???

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

This friday: $3.12M (-25.7% from last friday opening day $4.2M).

OD was Thursday, down about 33% from last Fri $4.7M

4 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Is this a good sign for it? Better drop in 2nd weekend comparing to other big movies???

It’s definitely a good sign to be dropping in low 30s from such a mega first FSS, but that comes with one main caveat, which is that this 2nd weekend seems to be spillover inflated. So I would not take this to mean that 33% is the “natural” dropping rate for F2. 2nd MTuTh vs first MTuTh and 3rd weekend vs 2nd weekend are what will really tell the tale.     
 

 

[PKMLover]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

OD was Thursday, down about 33% from last Fri $4.7M

It’s definitely a good sign to be dropping in low 30s from such a mega first FSS, but that comes with one main caveat, which is that this 2nd weekend seems to be spillover inflated. So I would not take this to mean that 33% is the “natural” dropping rate for F2. 2nd MTuTh vs first MTuTh and 3rd weekend vs 2nd weekend are what will really tell the tale.     
 

 

The numbers in the above tabble are already final or they are still being updated? Which website can I check them? 

How much money do you think F2 will gain this weekend?

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by PKMLover

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

The numbers in the above tabble are already final or they are still being updated? Which website can I check them? 

 

Nothing will be final for over a day, though it should be extremely close within 9 hours or so. 
 

You can check dailies here in English: http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

Or here in Korean: http://www.kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findDailyBoxOfficeList.do   
 

They often differ in initial estimates, but end up on same final number. The Korean source is usually higher and more accurate initially, I think. So I copy pasted from English but replaced the F2 numbers from the Korean source so they’d move less.  
 

F2 is heading for a roughly $19 2nd weekend imo, which is craaaazzzzy.

Edited November 29, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Nothing will be final for over a day, though it should be extremely close within 9 hours or so. 
 

You can check dailies here in English: http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

Or here in Korean: http://www.kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findDailyBoxOfficeList.do   
 

They often differ in initial estimates, but end up on same final number. The Korean source is usually higher and more accurate initially, I think. So I copy pasted from English but replaced the F2 numbers from the Korean source so they’d move less.  
 

F2 is heading for a roughly $19 2nd weekend imo, which is craaaazzzzy.

It has a chance to pass $76M of Frozen 1 after next weekend. 

[Legion Again]

1.18ish still looks right here in the early afternoon. I promised myself not to get overexcited until we were far enough into the run, but I think we are on the hunt for Avatar for the third time in 2019. Frozen 2 will at least get closer than Aladdin imo, and maybe even take HW #1 (after accounting for culture day this takes something like 42% weekly drops on avg, which I won’t call easy but also not outlandish).    
 

I‘m interested in HW and all-movie versions of the following records/lists, and I’ll try to compile them myself if it looks like nobody else has them after a couple days:

biggest single day (F2 should have 2nd and 3rd place)

biggest OD (F2 will rank lowish, just want for completeness)

biggest 3-day weekends (All weekends)

biggest 3-day OW

biggest 2nd weekend (F2 headed for 1st place afaik)

biggest 3rd weekend

biggest 4th weekend

biggest 5th weekend

biggest Sat (all Saturdays)

biggest Sun (all Sundays)

biggest 1st Sat (F2 2nd place)

biggest 1st Sun (F2 1st place)

biggest 2nd Sat (F2 headed for 1st place afaik)

biggest 2nd Sun (F2 headed for first place afaik)

biggest 3rd Sat

biggest 3rd Sun

 

Edited November 30, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

23 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

1.18ish still looks right here in the early afternoon. I promised myself not to get overexcited until we were far enough into the run, but I think we are on the hunt for Avatar for the third time in 2019. Frozen 2 will at least get closer than Aladdin imo, and maybe even take HW #1 (after accounting for culture day this takes something like 42% weekly drops on avg, which I won’t call easy but also not outlandish).    
 

I‘m interested in HW and all-movie versions of the following records/lists, and I’ll try to compile them myself if it looks like nobody else has them after a couple days:

biggest single day (F2 should have 2nd and 3rd place)

biggest OD (F2 will rank lowish, just want for completeness)

biggest 3-day weekends (All weekends)

biggest 3-day OW

biggest 2nd weekend (F2 headed for 1st place afaik)

biggest 3rd weekend

biggest 4th weekend

biggest 5th weekend

biggest Sat (all Saturdays)

biggest Sun (all Sundays)

biggest 1st Sat (F2 2nd place)

biggest 1st Sun (F2 1st place)

biggest 2nd Sat (F2 headed for 1st place afaik)

biggest 2nd Sun (F2 headed for first place afaik)

biggest 3rd Sat

biggest 3rd Sun

 

I wonder if Frozen 2 performance will slow down much in the late evening from 20.00 pm?? But again, although it is animated movie but the its main target audience in South Korea and Japan are (older) women. So maybe it will not slow down much... 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

I wonder if Frozen 2 performance will slow down much in the late evening from 20.00 pm?? But again, although it is animated movie but the its main target audience in South Korea and Japan are (older) women. So maybe it will not slow down much... 

I assume it will slow down similarly to last Saturday. That is to say, a bit, but not that acutely since it’s not a school night.   
 

Btw, difficult to overstate how crazy it is that there were 0 12M+ HW films this decade, and now there is a very good chance to get a third in the span of 7 months!

Edited November 30, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[PKMLover]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I assume it will slow down similarly to last Saturday. That is to say, a bit, but not that acutely since it’s not a school night.   
 

Btw, difficult to overstate how crazy it is that there were 0 12M+ HW films this decade, and now there is a very good chance to get a third in the span of 7 months!

I dont want to get so overexcited but 12m+ mean  $95M+ ???

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

I dont want to get so overexcited but 12m+ mean  $95M+ ???

Looking at the ATP so far 12M would be more like $84M. 

[PKMLover]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Looking at the ATP so far 12M would be more like $84M. 

Aladdin has around 11.5M and it finished at $90M or something like that....

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Aladdin has around 11.5M and it finished at $90M or something like that....

Aladdin is 12.55

[PKMLover]

40 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Aladdin is 12.55

Okay, I just looked at the tabble on that website and did som calculation.

For F2: 

12M ~ $88M

12.5M ~ $92M-93M

13M ~ $95-96M

Aladdin is 12.55M so it is around $93M

[Steven]

Frozen2 today 1.17m admission

is the biggest second Saturday in south korea