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5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

75% would be okay I guess. But really high numbers are only achieved very rarely when huge movies are coming out. It’s basic supply and demand. Theaters meeting the natural demand isn’t a problem, government artificially restricting people’s access to the movie’s that they’re interested in is. Completely misguided, as I said earlier. 

A meaningful supply & demand can only exist with enough of variety of choice in the market.   

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6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

75% would be okay I guess. But really high numbers are only achieved very rarely when huge movies are coming out. It’s basic supply and demand. Theaters meeting the natural demand isn’t a problem, government artificially restricting people’s access to the movie’s that they’re interested in is. Completely misguided, as I said earlier. 

yes yes yes

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

A meaningful supply & demand can only exist with enough of variety of choice in the market.   

There’s plenty variety of choice the way things are now. High screen %s don’t stifle people choices, they’re a consequence of them.

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1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

There’s plenty variety of choice the way things are now. High screen %s don’t stifle people choices, they’re a consequence of them.

If that is the case, why in the BOT , we are worry about if a film can retain enough of screen amount towards the later stage of run?

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5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If that is the case, why in the BOT , we are worry about if a film can retain enough of screen amount towards the later stage of run?

We’re worrying if it will have enough demand relative to newer movies to be worth keeping, not whether theaters will irrationally drop it despite it still having a enough demand. I’m not saying that screens are infinite and competition free, just that the competition is good since it helps allocate more opportunities for people to conveniently see what they actually want to see.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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Anyway, onto numbers. Came in at conservative prediction today, about 205k for -42% weekly. Still good.

 

1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S. 

Nov 21, 2019 $1,377,541
($61,867,301)
203,854
(8,787,465)
1,871 63.42%
2 Bring Me Home

Bring Me Home

South Korea 

Nov 27, 2019 $282,578
($3,395,825)
43,080
(505,687)
738 13.01%
3 BLACK MONEY

BLACK MONEY

South Korea 

Nov 13, 2019 $224,614
($16,339,564)
33,984
(2,293,939)
732 10.34%
4 CRAWL

CRAWL

U.S. 

Nov 27, 2019 $69,723
($823,456)
10,737
(120,818)
541 3.21%
5 Love at Second Sight

Love at Second Sight

Belgium,France 

Nov 27, 2019 $44,242
($412,742)
6,778
(61,100)
142 2.03%


 

CGV PS for tomorrow are flat at 31k.  
 

Pessimistically, would have same PSm drop as last Tues, 93k CGV and 184k admits (-42% weekly).
 

Instead let’s say a small PSm drop and 200k admits (-38% weekly).

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9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Anyway, onto numbers. Came in at conservative prediction today, about 205k for -42% weekly. Still good.

 

1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S. 

Nov 21, 2019 $1,377,541
($61,867,301)
203,854
(8,787,465)
1,871 63.42%
2 Bring Me Home

Bring Me Home

South Korea 

Nov 27, 2019 $282,578
($3,395,825)
43,080
(505,687)
738 13.01%
3 BLACK MONEY

BLACK MONEY

South Korea 

Nov 13, 2019 $224,614
($16,339,564)
33,984
(2,293,939)
732 10.34%
4 CRAWL

CRAWL

U.S. 

Nov 27, 2019 $69,723
($823,456)
10,737
(120,818)
541 3.21%
5 Love at Second Sight

Love at Second Sight

Belgium,France 

Nov 27, 2019 $44,242
($412,742)
6,778
(61,100)
142 2.03%


 

CGV PS for tomorrow are flat at 31k.  
 

Pessimistically, would have same PSm drop as last Tues, 93k CGV and 184k admits (-42% weekly).
 

Instead let’s say a small PSm drop and 200k admits (-38% weekly).

Hmmm..... the weekend drop will be bigger than weekday drop??? Im scared...

The last monday was affected by spillover, right? So it was inflated?

Edited by PKMLover
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Top 10 Hollywood movies with most admissions

1) Avengers: Endgame (2019) -       13,934,592

2) Avatar (2009) -                             13,624,328

3) Aladdin (2019) -                           12,551,956

4) Avengers: Infinity War (2018) -     11,212,710

5) Avengers: Age of Ulton (2015) -   10,494,840

6) Interstellar (2014) -                       10,390,432

7) Frozen (2014) -                             10,296,101

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) -        9,948,386

9) Iron Man 3 (2013) -                       9,001,679

10) Frozen 2 (2019) -                      8,787,940

 

Frozen 2 displaces Captain America: Civil War from the top 10. It seems destined to get into the top 3 at this rate. 

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Mau said:

so, is it possible that the restriction could happen soon?  I hope frozen can get 12.5m+ admissions

It wouldn’t be an issue for Frozen at this point, which will be on Day 14 tomorrow and not that screen hungry anyway. 12.5 looking great, I’m dreaming bigger as I have been since a couple days before release :ph34r:

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11 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

1) Avengers: Endgame (2019) -       13,934,592

2) Avatar (2009) -                             13,624,328

3) Aladdin (2019) -                           12,551,956

So Aladdin was a solid million and half away from EG. I thought they were 100k (s) apart.

 

Also, damn you 65,408 people.

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1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S. 

Nov 21, 2019 $1,299,754
($62,926,045)
194,985
(8,982,983)
1,915 60.68%
2 Bring Me Home

Bring Me Home

South Korea 

Nov 27, 2019 $269,912
($3,657,799)
41,866
(548,446)
764 12.6%
3 BLACK MONEY

BLACK MONEY

South Korea 

Nov 13, 2019 $220,157
($16,496,101)
34,121
(2,328,776)
749 10.27%
4 CRAWL

CRAWL

U.S. 

Nov 27, 2019 $68,422
($890,824)
10,574
(131,740)
527 3.19%
5 Love at Second Sight

Love at Second Sight

Belgium,France 

Nov 27, 2019 $47,734
($459,377)
7,620
(68,813)
133 2.22%
6 FORD v FERRARI

FORD v FERRARI

U.S. 

Dec 04, 2019 $34,454
($84,745)
7,000
(13,016)
36 1.6%


 

CGV PS down to 24k, seems like a bigger hit from openers than I thought. Day might be 150kish.

 

FvF 10k, KO 17k. Inexperienced with small movie OD PSm, so no projections for either. Seem fine though. 

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On 12/2/2019 at 5:36 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Top 10 Hollywood movies with most admissions

1) Avengers: Endgame (2019) -       13,934,592

2) Avatar (2009) -                             13,624,328

3) Aladdin (2019) -                           12,551,956

4) Avengers: Infinity War (2018) -     11,212,710

5) Avengers: Age of Ulton (2015) -   10,494,840

6) Interstellar (2014) -                       10,390,432

7) Frozen (2014) -                             10,296,101

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) -        9,948,386

9) Iron Man 3 (2013) -                       9,001,679

10) Frozen 2 (2019) -                      8,787,940

 

Frozen 2 displaces Captain America: Civil War from the top 10. It seems destined to get into the top 3 at this rate. 

 

 

 

 

I know it's too early to say but can frozen 2 become the 3th hollywood movie to reach 13 million admissions?
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1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

@Arendelle Legion today number is still in line with prediction so far?

Yes, though I overestimated CGV ratio for the openers it looks like.  
 

1 Frozen 2

Frozen 2

U.S. 

Nov 21, 2019 $1,138,135
($63,922,420)
177,000
(9,160,435)
1,556 48.64%
2 FORD v FERRARI

FORD v FERRARI

U.S. 

Dec 04, 2019 $356,565
($441,097)
51,290
(64,306)
981 15.24%
3 KNIVES OUT

KNIVES OUT

U.S. 

Dec 04, 2019 $239,665
($273,931)
38,900
(43,519)
590 10.24%
4 A Little Princess

A Little Princess

South Korea 

Dec 04, 2019 $211,779
($411,766)
35,117
(70,731)
758 9.05%
5 Bring Me Home

Bring Me Home

South Korea 

Nov 27, 2019 $121,693
($3,776,284)
18,862
(568,170)
581 5.2%
6 BLACK MONEY

BLACK MONEY

South Korea 

Nov 13, 2019 $117,450
($16,576,133)
17,739
(2,347,075)
495 5.02%

 

CGV PS for today are 23k, so probably about 170. Basically a 40% drop for weekdays accounting for culture day. Currently thinking about 40% for the weekend too from KOBIS patterns, but I haven’t tracked a third weekend closely before so the ratios could end up much better or worse than that. Will have a much better idea in 24 hours and a very good idea in say, 40.


 

 

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Also here’s an updated projection table based on where things will stand after a 170k Thursday:  

Cume week   drops  wkMulti final admits 

9.33    3.35    55.0%    1.82    12.073
9.33    3.35    50.0%    2.00    12.682
9.33    3.35    47.5%    2.11    13.035
9.33    3.35    45.0%    2.22    13.427
9.33    3.35    42.5%    2.35    13.864
9.33    3.35    40.0%    2.50    14.357
9.33    3.35    37.5%    2.67    14.915
9.33    3.35    35.0%    2.86    15.554   
 

So around 51% drops will get it into top 3, feels very safe to me. 44% or so to beat Avatar and 42% or so to beat Endgame. Both live, but not trivial. Will update again after Sat numbers using projected Sun cume.  

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